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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • #302
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    A poster, I think Defaulter, mentioned Burns Day :)


  • #303
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    this evenings ensembles run for my hometown of Dunshaughlin is starting to show a few models running into the -10 to -15 temp range at 850 hPA from January 25th, that would be freezer territory at ground level if a few of those came off.

    It's still modeling some snow for January 22nd, then snow basically every day from January 25th to February 2nd and stops there because the data doesn't go any further.

    At this time ,-10 850 air would probably still be sub zero at sea level
    -12 two degrees colder etc


  • #304
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The pressure required depends on the depth of the cold. For example on the 27th of February last year, we had heavy snow but the pressure was 1025mb with uppers of -10c. So 1025mb is sufficient in what the ECM is showing because the uppers get to -11c over Dublin and of course the SSTs are warmer than they were in February last year so you'd think there would be even more convection if what the ECM is showing came off.

    Gaoth Laidir posted an excellent guide last year I think but I can't find it.


  • #305
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    Also bear in mind that the Irish Sea is about 2c warmer than the North Sea, on average. I would imagine this would mean that even if the uppers were 2c warmer arriving into Ireland than they were arriving in the UK, we should still have similar levels of sea based convection. This is also assuming that SLP is similar in both countries.


  • #306
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I wonder, it it pans out, is there a chance of thundersnow, or would we need a bit more instabiliy in the flow? 2009 was great for thundersnow. There was something special about seeing lighting strikes at night set against a white ground.


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  • #307
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.


  • #308
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,636 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.





    Probaby not enough instability in the flow, if you had a strong easterly breeze it might be different.

    A polar low is the best bet for near nationwide snow.


  • #309
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    I just wonder how far south it would go, would we even get anything here in Cork City with what the ECM is showing? Its difficult to tell, we are always awkward to get to in snow with these situations, last year a very big exception and amazing.

    It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow :(


  • #310
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow :(

    1987 was great for Cork. Heavy snow and -6C 13 January!


  • #311
    sean555
    Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭sean555


    Some 18z run.


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  • #312
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Very much a UK affair on the GFS18 with very low uppers now really making it past the east/south east. Below is 222hrs. Cork city just about on the boundry of -8/-9 which is what im looking at mainly for obvious reasons :P However the east coast looks to be under -10/11 uppers. UK looks very cold on this run.

    222-7UK.GIF?17-18


  • #313
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Depth of cold is there on the 18Z for sure but does not make it far enough west in any sort of reliable timeframe. Uppers just aren't good enough.

    No appreciable snow to see here.

    UK on the other hand... potentially massive disruption. But let's not get hung up on one run because it will be completely different again in 6hrs.

    Overall, trend continues very cold. In the longer term, all the indications are still very good.


  • #314
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this looks fantastic for England and Wales, not so much for us. The cold and unstable air is diving south-eastwards and missing Ireland altogether, we're just on the very edge of it. Shift the cold west by another 100 miles and we may be on to something good.


  • #315
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    It nearly has to come from east south east for us in coastal cork to get snow :(

    You had no shortage of it last March especially between Kinsale and Inchydoney. Unlikely to see those conditions along the coast again any time in the near future going by present indications.


  • #316
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    I’d rather have -8 uppers as far West as Portlaoise than have them in Warsaw. We have a better chance of tapping in.


  • #317
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Easterly seems to be pushed back come 240hrs by cold westerlies/north westerlies not bringing much snow in the rain band that accompanies it but this is too far into FI to be reliable. Hope this is the start of seeing it come further west and west rather then stopping over the UK and heading south :p

    Edit: Interesting, Cold air pushing back into the north at 324 :p


  • #318
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Major cold spell looking certain now!!
    Looking dryish at times but confident this will change. Get the cold in and see what happens


  • #319
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.
    an almost direct run from the heart of frozen russia,
    barcelona will have its snow :)

    h850t850eu.png


  • #320
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    squarecircles wrote: »
    the bitter intense cold flowing down beautifully into iberia on the 18z. if only it could advance westwards as easily.

    This has happened so many times before, it just side-steps Ireland with the Uk getting pasted.

    This is so far away and will change many times, the best thing to do right now is hope the cold charts stick and that the cold gets pushed westwards by another 100-200 miles by this time next week.


  • #321
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    There she is now,ah grand bit a rain


    ukprec.png


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  • #322
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    squarecircles wrote: »
    There she is now,ah grand bit a rain


    ukprec.png

    12 days away. Pinch of salt if it said snow or rain :)


  • #323
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    In FI yes but the air coming out of Europe has been overall trending colder now for a number of runs, a beast like set up in the making perhaps ? A fairly good setup for a continuation of cold.

    HJMoA8f.gif

    ZgaUJ4d.png

    BKpHMqn.png


  • #324
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Couple more runs like this and looking quite cold going into next weekend.

    On the latest ECM runs it shows Ireland with more precipitation than the UK next weekend as frontal bands come in off the Atlantic. So the main cold could be arriving from the E and the snow arriving from the W. Convergence could occur over the W half of the country . It could end up that the W half of the country ends up with the snow. Just one scenario that could develop.

    At the moment no major dump showing up on the ECM but a lot of changes could happen in a week.


    AI8yX0q.gif

    anim_sgw4.gif

    51OQXuj.png

    FuevK9P.png


  • #325
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    OK, So I'm a novice but to my untrained eye, surely this is a great chart for potential snow for Ireland, am I right in saying that that the Atlantic system is going to slide SE introducing the colder air from the East??


  • #326
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!


  • #327
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    :)


  • #328
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Darwin


    I wouldn't have said particularly snowy as the fetch is South Westerly, but the subsequent GFS frames showing the following two days (Sunday and Monday) would be absolutely epic *if* (and a big if) it panned out that way. I'm no expert either, but that would be my limited understanding of those charts.


  • #329
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Easterly Beasterly wrote: »
    Sorry.. forgot to attach the images!

    Lol, u bet me to it. -12 uppers east cost streamers/ heavy snow showers all the way.


  • #330
    hawkwing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭hawkwing


    Fun times ahead for Cork especially on the 6z..


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  • #331
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    A ukmo snowmaker of a northeasterly for east leinster if ever you saw one for next thursday,notice how it's the same day again so creeping closer not further away ,happy with that all ?


This discussion has been closed.
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