European Parliament Elections 2019

expectationlost · 11-04-2019 12:26pm

Midlands northwest European candidates nominations now coming in https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/ nominations Dilip Mahapatra a Dundalk based doctor who went for the Fianna Fail nomination is running as an Independent https://www.talkofthetown.ie/dundalk-doctor-bidding-for-fianna-fail-nomination-for-european-elections/ https://www.facebook.com/1505160289615275/photos/rpp.1505160289615275/1505884716209499/?type=3&theater

seligehgit · 11-04-2019 7:29pm

L1011 wrote: »

Marian Harkin not running which opens that race up a bit. The other three are back safe I'd think anyway. FF will presumably see the 4th seat as theirs.

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

nice_guy80 · 11-04-2019 7:45pm

seligehgit wrote: »

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

Ming will probably top the poll.

L1011 · 11-04-2019 8:21pm

seligehgit wrote: »

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

What did Harkin do to get re-elected every time? Still got in. Name and/or memories of what was believed to have been achieved as a TD/Cllr does the work for Europe usually.

Without Casey Ming would be home and dry. With Casey its anyones guess, as despite their nearly totally incompatible politics they would both appeal to people who vote for "not a politician".

nice_guy80 · 11-04-2019 10:14pm

L1011 wrote: »

What did Harkin do to get re-elected every time? Still got in. Name and/or memories of what was believed to have been achieved as a TD/Cllr does the work for Europe usually.

Without Casey Ming would be home and dry. With Casey its anyones guess, as despite their nearly totally incompatible politics they would both appeal to people who vote for "not a politician".

Casey will be eliminated early and his transfers will go to Ming

L1011 · 11-04-2019 10:20pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Casey will be eliminated early and his transfers will go to Ming

I really wouldn't be that certain. He got >30% in the Presidential in some of the constituencies that make up the Euro constituency.

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 7:51am

L1011 wrote: »

I really wouldn't be that certain. He got >30% in the Presidential in some of the constituencies that make up the Euro constituency.

that's fine.
but now he actually has to go out and campaign on a few issues.

issues relevant to the EU and Ireland.

luckily, there are no traveller housing issues out in Luxembourg which affect us

Manach · 12-04-2019 7:58am

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 8:14am

Manach wrote: »

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

look at what Irish parties votes for and against

blanch152 · 12-04-2019 8:59am

Manach wrote: »

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

I don't think this issue will feature much in the debate, it will be very much on the fringe.

L1011 · 12-04-2019 10:09am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

that's fine.
but now he actually has to go out and campaign on a few issues.

issues relevant to the EU and Ireland.

luckily, there are no traveller housing issues out in Luxembourg which affect us

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 11:16am

L1011 wrote: »

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

the presidential election was a foregone conclusion once Michael D eventually made up his mind, at the last minute
so most of the vote Casey got was because everyone knew who was going to win

L1011 · 12-04-2019 11:25am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

the presidential election was a foregone conclusion once Michael D eventually made up his mind, at the last minute
so most of the vote Casey got was because everyone knew who was going to win

I would disagree with that analysis quite strongly.

SF voters for one didn't change to Casey just because - and it's quite clear that lots did

blanch152 · 12-04-2019 11:45am

L1011 wrote: »

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

I think he could take a seat. We have seen with Trump and Brexit that campaigning on the issues in modern elections isn't always the best approach, appealing to the emotions and the feelings can work if you press the right buttons.

L1011 · 12-04-2019 12:41pm

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

expectationlost · 12-04-2019 1:37pm

apropos of nobody how about higher qualifications for European election candidates currently you just need 60 assenters, dail is 30, locals 15 https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/elections_and_referenda/european_elections/european_elections.html#l7b144

or you can pay 1,800 quid

average dail population is around 30k per td
average european constituency population is around 350k per MEP http://www.constituency-commission.ie/ep/docs/Report%20on%20European%20Parliament%20Constituencies%202018.pdf
so should you need 350 assenters

expectationlost · 12-04-2019 6:56pm

more Midlands Northwest candidates official listed https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations including Casey

South
https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/ includes Paddy Fitzgerald, of Loughloher, Cahir, Co. Tipperary
Retired Farmer can't find anything on him

expectationlost · 13-04-2019 1:36pm

expectationlost wrote: »

don't see where in the recent bill this was addressed https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf seems like gov will have to publish another bill, the suggestion isase there are two counts to sort out who is actually shelved https://politicalreformireland.wordpress.com/2019/02/22/how-should-irelands-meps-be-elected-amidst-brexit-uncertainty/

good thread on it here https://twitter.com/antoin/status/1114569999254020097

'EU election votes may have to be counted twice due to Brexit' - Leo Varadkar

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/eu-election-votes-may-have-to-be-counted-twice-due-to-brexit-leo-varadkar-38009865.html

14-04-2019 11:22am

L1011 wrote: »

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

Replacements should be people who genuinely want the position. Remember the fiasco when Joe Higgins was replaced by the last name on his list, Paul Murphy, as the others weren’t available.

L1011 · 14-04-2019 12:27pm

Can't force someone to take the place if offered as it could cause severe issues - Simon Harris is first on the FG South list for the outgoing parliament as he wasn't really as critical in 2014 as now for instance

14-04-2019 1:02pm

L1011 wrote: »

Can't force someone to take the place if offered as it could cause severe issues - Simon Harris is first on the FG South list for the outgoing parliament as he wasn't really as critical in 2014 as now for instance

Was Paul Murphy even elected to anything at that time? Was he not just Joe Higgins’ secretary? It’s a crazy system. The seat should either be left vacant or a by election held to fill it.

expectationlost · 15-04-2019 11:48am

15 candidates so far in Dublin https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/ theres Clare Daly and Gemma O'Doherty and Ben Gilroy

20 in South https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/

IDENTITY IRELAND Peter O'Loughlin
Theresa Heaney Ind
Walter Ryan-Purcell Ind https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2386780318020667&set=ecnf.100000661653086&type=3&theater
Liam Minehan Ind
Dolores J. Cahill Irexit listed as non-party
and theres mick wallace Home and Colleen Worthington and Peter Madden Allan J Brennan

https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations Forms | Midlands North West, Mayo Returning Officer | Castlebar 14 candidates so far including
HEALY EAMES

An Ciarraioch · 15-04-2019 1:34pm

expectationlost wrote: »

13 candidates so far in Dublin

20 in South https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/

IDENTITY IRELAND Peter O'Loughlin
Theresa Heaney Ind
Walter Ryan-Purcell Ind https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2386780318020667&set=ecnf.100000661653086&type=3&theater
Liam Minehan Ind
Dolores J. Cahill Irexit listed as non-party
and theres mick wallace Home and Colleen Worthington and Peter Madden Allan J Brennan

https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations Forms | Midlands North West, Mayo Returning Officer | Castlebar 14 candidates so far including
HEALY EAMES

I believe Theresa Heaney once ran for the Catholic Democrats? Peter O'Loughlin is fast becoming the new Áine Ní Chonaill in terms of repeated electoral outings.

L1011 · 15-04-2019 1:50pm

Wallace and Daly could both cause significant first preference upsets in both constituencies even if I doubt either will get in (well, South with 5 - its possible Wallace could get there)

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:11pm

L1011 wrote: »

Wallace and Daly could both cause significant first preference upsets in both constituencies even if I doubt either will get in (well, South with 5 - its possible Wallace could get there)

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:13pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Was Paul Murphy even elected to anything at that time? Was he not just Joe Higgins’ secretary? It’s a crazy system. The seat should either be left vacant or a by election held to fill it.

He was Higgin's PA and he was on the replacement list that each candidate had to submit although he was 4th or 5th on the list of replacements.

L1011 · 15-04-2019 2:31pm

MFPM wrote: »

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:34pm

MFPM wrote: »

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

Doubtful, a lot of political heavyweights in the field. Boylan, Fitzgerald and Andrews would be my call.

blackwhite · 15-04-2019 2:43pm

L1011 wrote: »

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

She will potentially damage the first preferences for Lynn Boylan.

Also looking at that - does Gemma O'Doherty have a pub/restaurant in Foxrock listed as her address?

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:48pm

L1011 wrote: »

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

Ming topped the poll(100K+) last time. He'd want to fall a very long way and Casey is untested in a real election.

European Parliament Elections 2019

Comments