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August 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    You have to admit, I chose a good bonus question this month.


    Brilliant, I was watching Moore Park all yesterday thinking it would get into top three but fell at last hurdle not enough rain in evening time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    With the models going into max chaos mode, any location stands a chance and the highest forecasts now looking good. Let's set this up from high to low forecast for further tracking:

    BLIZZARD7 ____________ 58.0 (Dunsany 18th)

    Rikand ________________50.0 (Mountdillon 24th)

    Eon1208 ______________ 46.0 (Valentia 29th)

    Joe Public _____________ 43.0 (Valentia 4th)

    waterways ____________ 43.0 (Athenry 15th)

    dacogawa _____________42.0 (Roches' Point 14th)

    johnmac ______________ 42.0 (Newport 28th)

    appledrop _____________ 41.0 (Newport 27th)

    Pauldry _______________ 40.0 (Newport 31st)

    NormaL _______________40.0 (climatology, date random)


    __ actual to date _______ 37.0 (Malin Head 5th)


    MrSkinner ____________ 37.0 (Valentia 4th)

    Gonzo _______________ 37.0 (Dunsany 26th)

    mickger844posts ______ 36.0 (Johnstown Castle 26th)

    (main interest below this would be location and date) ...

    Artane2002 ___________35.0 (Newport 21st)

    M.T. Cranium _________ 35.0 (Dunsany 28th)

    MrStonewall __________ 33.0 (Shannon 4th)

    JPmarn ______________ 32.5 (Valentia 16th)

    sryanbruen ___________32.0 (Newport 25th)

    sunflower3 ___________ 31.0 (Newport 8th)

    Kindred Spirit _________30.0 (Valentia 17th)

    Adam240610 _________ 29.0 (Valentia 27th)

    dasa29 ______________ 25.0 (Malin Head 18th)

    DOCARCH ____________23.6 (Valentia 15th)

    Tae laidir _____________23.0 (Mace Head 5th)

    Bsal _________________22.0 (Gurteen 13th)

    Western Storm ________22.0 (Malin Head 22nd)

    200motels ___________ 20.0 (Dublin 22nd)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,837 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes even the top 3 mightnt be in the top 3 by Saturday


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Storm Ellen will have her say but rainfalls will be divided between 19th and 20th in many cases. The 24h totals might reach 50 mm (for example Moorepark, Athenry, Gurteen) but could see them about equally split between the days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    appledrop wrote: »
    Change to rainfall max:


    1. Malin Head 37mm 4th Aug
    2. Sherkin 35.6mm 13th Aug
    3. Valentina 32.6mm 15th Aug


    So after last night's rain slight change. Valentina remains 3rd but its at value of 34.4mm on 19th August.


    Some amount of rainfall in Cork overall but as MT says spilt between the days.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 16.4 with the third week average 16.9, 1.8 above normal.

    MAX and MIN remain 25.2 and some value we won't need to remember by the looks of charts.

    PRC now up to 142% with the third week very wet (262% of normal).

    SUN has slumped to 91% with the fourth week 71.5% of normal (429/600).

    The max rain bonus tracking can be seen in the previous post in terms of the top three amounts so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,324 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Valentia doing her best to win the 24th for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Rikand wrote: »
    Valentia doing her best to win the 24th for me
    Unbelievable amount of rain falling in Valentina since early yesterday evening. 12mm at 11pm + 15mm in another.



    Unfortunately for you though a bit like last storm looks like high overall total is spilt between 2 days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Newport may surprise as a lot of rain seems to be concentrated around the northwest portions of the low's central structure. But locations further east will at least get all of their Francis rainfall on one day (today), whether it manages to push into the top three remains to be seen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Well what a day all change now at top!


    1. Valentia 52mm 24th

    2.Roches Point 41.5mm 24th
    3. Malin Head 37mm 4th



    Cork Airport also nearly made it into top 3.


    Well done Rikand you got the date + pretty much the amount as well spot on!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looks like they included midnight to 0100h in the total, so their "day" must be 00z to 00z. (with the summer time GMT or UTC or z runs an hour behind civil time). Otherwise no way do the hourlies add up to those amounts.

    Glad it wasn't split up as badly as it might have been. Would still keep an eye on Mayo as there may be persistent rain there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,837 ✭✭✭pauldry


    21mm so far in Newport and down for the day


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    MT, do ye have the same or similar expression 'down for the day'?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Looks like they included midnight to 0100h in the total, so their "day" must be 00z to 00z. (with the summer time GMT or UTC or z runs an hour behind civil time). Otherwise no way do the hourlies add up to those amounts.

    Glad it wasn't split up as badly as it might have been. Would still keep an eye on Mayo as there may be persistent rain there.

    Thats definitely what they did as I was watching Valentina + only in mid 30mm by 11pm so obviously they counted 15mm at 00+ in 24th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,474 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Bel mullet has over 40mm of rain so far today 25th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Bel mullet has over 40mm of rain so far today 25th.[/QUOTE


    One to watch so to see if it can take top spot!


    I thought no way 52mm from yesterday could be beaten but sure just another beautiful summers day in Ireland!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The way the contest will be scored, it won't matter if Belmullet breaks into the top three because nobody picked it as their location. Scoring will then go to the top three other than Belmullet. Where it might influence scoring is the climatology factor for NormaL, and Con Sensus would score one less also.

    Here's a factoid ... the total rainfall from Francis throughout the eleven-station grid appears to be heading for 300 mm or higher. That's the equivalent of four locations having a normal August rainfall. It will therefore add about 35-40 per cent to the monthly PRC and no doubt week four report will show us near 200% since there's another soaker for the south due in by end of the week.

    I could pretty much score PRC now as some version of the mercy rule will be needed, just not sure yet if some high forecast might snag the coveted right to reduce the boost (which would likely mean top scores would be 15, 8,8,7,7, etc). Will work on that question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    1. Valentia 52mm 24th

    2.Roches Point 41.5mm 24th
    3.Belmullet 41.4mm 25th

    4. Malin Head 37mm 4th

    I've listed 1-4 to take into account what MT said about no one having Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Pauldry had 170% and dacogawa 159% for their precip forecasts. Otherwise nobody went above 125% and our consensus was actually 95%. I think Pauldry has some chance of applying the reduced boost to the rest of us although dacogawa's reduction would be slight being that close. Basically the reduction means you only get half the usual boost from minimum progression, which for most other than dacogawa would mean an average of zero and the boosted score (since most raw scores are all going to be zero if 170% is close to the target). In fact it's more likely to exceed than fall short, the qualifying range would be 163 to 177 per cent. (raw score has to be 13/15 or higher to apply the reduced boost).


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I think we will get our minimum temperature this evening.

    Very cold out there today.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I think we will get our minimum temperature this evening.

    Very cold out there today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 16.0, fourth week average was 14.4 which is 0.4 below normal for the week.This will likely lose 0.1 a day to end, so 15.7 looks like the most probable finish.

    MAX is 25.2 and MIN will probably be set tonight or Sunday night.

    PRC now at 169% with the fourth week 250% of normal. Not likely to add much now, could drift back down to around 160% which would allow Dacogawa to apply the hurt (won't reduce Pauldry's score much but rest of field will lose out). In fact this is generally certain as the finish will be within the zone required for one of them (at 159 and 170 per cent) so rest of us can expect reduced boosted scores.

    SUN is down to 83% as a result of a cloudy week a little below 60% (Dublin data are incomplete in the weekly summary). This may recover slightly but will end up close to 85%.

    Bonus tracking is probably done with a weak system indicated for Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Min temperature recorded of 4.5 at Casement yesterday.

    Is that just up to 12 midnight?

    Could be lower to come we will have to keep on eye on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,837 ✭✭✭pauldry


    3.5c in Casement as low as I see so far


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,623 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I see 2c reported at Mount Dillon at 7am. Probably have to wait until tomorrow to see what confirmed min. temp for the month is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,837 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It was also 2c at 6am so could be below 2c even


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,746 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Lowest min at present is 3.1at Dunsany on 30th Aug.


    However as you all said did get lower over night but will probably have to wait until tomorrow for last nights temperatures.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,623 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Low of 1.6c at Mount Dillon yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT took quite a hit from the cool spell, dropping to 15.5 as a final value. The average for 29-31 was about 12.5 so it was falling by more than 0.1 each day, more like 0.15.

    I will wait for the MS to confirm other data, that should appear tomorrow morning, not much additional PRC so I expect that may fall somewhere around 160%, sunshine looks to have stayed put in low 80s but will check their numbers for the exact amount.

    Not long to wait for the September bonus to be settled.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,282 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    MS confirms these values for scoring the August contest ...

    IMT 15.5 MAX 25.2 MIN 1.6 PRC 151% SUN 83%

    FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus ___ TOTAL


    Pauldry ____________25 _ 13 _ 10 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 76

    Appledrop __________24 _ 13 _ 17 _ 01 _ 09 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 71

    Jpmarn ____________21 _ 09 _ 15 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 1 ____71

    Rikand _____ (-2) ___ 20 _ 20 _ 20 _ 02 _ 03 __ 4 0 3 1_73-2=71

    dasa29 ____________ 20 _ 14 _ 12 __13 _ 07 ___ 1 1 2 _____70


    Normal ____________21 _ 09 _ 18 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 2 1 ___ 70


    DOCARCH__________ 20 _ 11 _ 14 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 3 2 _____ 68

    Sunflower3 _________24 _ 20 _ 03 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 68

    Bsal ______________ 24 _ 10 _ 10 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 1 0 2 _____ 65

    MrSkinner __________23 _ 20 _ 01 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 3 3 1 _____ 62

    Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 00 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 4 2 2 1 ____ 62

    waterways _________ 23 _ 02 _ 08 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 4 0 2 _____ 57

    Eon1208 _____(-8) __21 _ 20 _ 05 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 4 3 3 2_65-8=57

    mickger844posts_(-3)_20 _ 20 _ 00 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 3 0 3 _56-3=53

    Kindred Spirit _______ 20 _ 04 _ 03 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 53

    john mac ___________20 _ 13 _ 02 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 4 0 3 _____ 51


    ___ Con Sensus _____ 22 _ 04 _ 07 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 2 _____ 49


    WesternStorm ______ 25 _ 02 _ 08 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 1 1 3 _____ 48

    Joe Public___________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 4 3 1 1 ____47

    M.T. Cranium _______ 20 _ 01 _ 04 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 44

    200motels__________ 20 _ 10 _ 03 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 1 0 3 _____ 43

    Mrstonewall _________13 _ 02 _ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 0 1 _____ 43

    Artane2002 _________20 _ 01 _ 07 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 42

    Adam240610 _______ 19 _ 06 _ 03 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 1 3 3 _____ 37

    Tae laidir ___________18 _ 04 _ 04 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 1 0 1 _____ 35

    sryanbruen _________ 19 _ 01 _ 03 _ 02 _ 05 ___ 2 0 3 _____ 35

    BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _17 _ 00 _ 08 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 4 0 2 _33-4=29

    Gonzo______ (-10) __ 21 _ 02 _ 04 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 3 0 3_35-10=25

    _________________________________________________

    Notes: small boosts were given to MAX and MIN as fewer than 2/3 of scores were greater than zero, but in both cases the boosts were reduced as there were several high raw scores. The PRC boost was more generous than expected, the official number came in 1% lower than the range where a reduced boost would be justified, and in any case the month was starting to look like an automatic discard for most if I reduced all of the boosts. The bonus was scored rather generously in three groups (4, 3, 3 max points) and one superbonus of 2 points was awarded, several of 1 point. For location, the scores were 3 for Valentia, 2 for Roches Point and 1 for Malin Head, 0 for any other location. For dates, I gave the predictions 21st-31st 3 points, 11th-20th 2 and 1st-10th 1. For amount, 40+ was worth 4, 35.1-39.9 got 3, 30.0-35.0 2, the rest 1.

    Gonzo, I scored your forecast and reduced it by 10 for the archives, but the actual penalty there would be more than the score itself.

    Well done to five who got scores into the 70s, led by Pauldry.

    Annual scoring update to follow, probably not right away, closer to this evening perhaps.

    ==================================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date


    Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

    BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

    Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

    Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

    sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

    Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

    M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

    Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

    200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

    mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

    Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

    Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

    Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th


    Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)


    waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

    Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

    Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

    WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

    Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

    Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

    MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th


    Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)


    Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

    DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

    john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

    dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

    Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

    _________________________________________________


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