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Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

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    #122
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    vicwatson wrote: »
    They should trial this in India and let us know how they get on

    Funnily enough, India has apparently banned autonomous cars to save jobs.
    https://www.motoring.com.au/india-to-ban-autonomous-cars-108231/

    Make of that what you will. Personally I think it's only a stopgap measure. If India relies on it's low cost labour to make it competitive, then this may be a step in the wrong direction. I don't know enough about it to predict how this will go.


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    #123
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    magicbastarder wrote: »
    yes, people found alternative employment after technological disruption in the past, but trite statements like the above do nothing to address the fact that a) it was not necessarily pleasant for all involved; b) significant societal changes often followed, not all of which were positive; and c) assuming autonomous vehicles do make it onto our roads, it may happen faster than industrial revolution changes did.

    Perhaps if those denying this technology will ever be viable stop living in denial we can have a discussion on your very valid points.


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    #124
    Ben D Bus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,110 ✭✭✭Ben D Bus


    magicbastarder wrote: »
    yes, people found alternative employment after technological disruption in the past, but trite statements like the above do nothing to address the fact that a) it was not necessarily pleasant for all involved; b) significant societal changes often followed, not all of which were positive; and c) assuming autonomous vehicles do make it onto our roads, it may happen faster than industrial revolution changes did.

    I think the concept of a basic universal income will have to be looked at seriously in the coming years as automation increasingly takes over at every level of employment. Done properly, we could actually make great strides towards the dream of not having to work out of necessity and actually choosing what we do with our time.

    The technological changes are the easy bit, the societal change will take great leadership but will eventually be of huge benefit. The transition will probably be painful and ugly for many.


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    #125
    magicbastarder
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,299 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    yeah, i've heard predictions that it's the likes of accountants who have most to fear from automation in the next decade or two.


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    #126
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    magicbastarder wrote: »
    yeah, i've heard predictions that it's the likes of accountants who have most to fear from automation in the next decade or two.

    That's true. There is already a large degree of automation involved in project management and where there isn't, there's a lot of study and analysis to bring it to those aspects of the job.


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    #127
    vicwatson
    Registered Users Posts: 28,403 ✭✭✭✭vicwatson


    eeguy wrote: »
    Funnily enough, India has apparently banned autonomous cars to save jobs.
    https://www.motoring.com.au/india-to-ban-autonomous-cars-108231/

    Make of that what you will. Personally I think it's only a stopgap measure. If India relies on it's low cost labour to make it competitive, then this may be a step in the wrong direction. I don't know enough about it to predict how this will go.

    Only to save jobs or the knowledge that no way in hell would they work there. It's chaos with normal cars.


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    #128
    MGWR
    Closed Accounts Posts: 611 ✭✭✭MGWR


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Don't know about the rest of you, but I am looking forward to seeing driverless buses, trains, taxis and luas

    It's really not as far away as people think
    To what purpose? What purpose does all this over-hyped automation serve, other than to add more complexity to machines that ought to be simpler in construction and to give the government free hand in suddenly taking control of what ought to be your autonomous personal vehicle? I see more accidents, not fewer.

    It's a great way to make people stay home, that's for sure.

    One thing I'll never get in is a pilotless airliner. Never in my life.


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    #129
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    MGWR wrote: »
    To what purpose? What purpose does all this over-hyped automation serve, other than to add more complexity to machines that ought to be simpler in construction and to give the government free hand in suddenly taking control of what ought to be your autonomous personal vehicle? I see more accidents, not fewer.

    No more accidents due to drunk drivers, drugged drivers, sleepy drivers, distracted drivers, etc.

    It will hopefully end the carnage on our roads.

    Also buses that run 24/7 will be nice.


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    #130
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,584 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    MGWR wrote: »
    To what purpose? What purpose does all this over-hyped automation serve, other than to add more complexity to machines that ought to be simpler in construction and to give the government free hand in suddenly taking control of what ought to be your autonomous personal vehicle? I see more accidents, not fewer.

    It's a great way to make people stay home, that's for sure.

    One thing I'll never get in is a pilotless airliner. Never in my life.

    Automation has done wonders for metro and light rail operation over a lot of the world who now are able to run fast, frequent reliable public transport services automatically and eliminate human factors which are normally the most common causes of accidents.

    As for never flying on a pilotless airplane, all I will say is that the number one cause of airplane disasters is pilot error by quite some distance and alot of them are controlled flights into terrain where the pilot has made a mistake, is not paying attention or is suffering from spatial disorientation or lack of situational awareness.


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    #131
    plodder
    Registered Users Posts: 7,126 ✭✭✭plodder


    In fairness though, the cases where a pilot has to take over to recover when the automation (software) crashes or does something stupid, are ones you don't hear about. Having said that, there are many situations now in aviation where the automation has to be used (eg autoland in poor visibility). So, the trend is definitely headed in one direction. I just wouldn't be so bullish about the exact time frames, for driverless buses, or planes.


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    #132
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,584 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    plodder wrote: »
    In fairness though, the cases where a pilot has to take over to recover when the automation (software) crashes or does something stupid, are ones you don't hear about.

    But on the other side there are times when the automation prevents you from doing something stupid or sounds an alert to stop the pilots from doing something stupid because they have lost situational awareness - there have been many accidents where pilots have not trusted their instruments and systems and paid the price.

    I don't think we're ready for a totally pilotless plane right now anyway, but the statistics show that human error is by far the number one factor in airplane accidents to this day but normally it's s series of events/bad decisions that leads to them rather than one particular error.


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    #133
    TheQuietFella
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭TheQuietFella


    In my opinion this will never work unless you remove the human element from
    the road network and that includes cyclists, road runners, motor cyclists and whoever else uses the system. How many of you are prepared to sacrifice that?


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    #134
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    TheQuietFella wrote: »
    In my opinion this will never work unless you remove the human element from
    the road network and that includes cyclists, road runners, motor cyclists and whoever else uses the system. How many of you are prepared to sacrifice that?

    Your opinion is wrong.


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    #135
    TheQuietFella
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭TheQuietFella


    eeguy wrote: »
    Your opinion is wrong.

    Well that's your opinion! Explain why I'm wrong?


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    #136
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    TheQuietFella wrote: »
    Well that's your opinion! Explain why I'm wrong?

    Because trials in the US and elsewhere by Tesla and Google and others have shown that autonomous cars can safely coexist with other road users under nearly all circumstances.

    Tesla plan on doing a coast to coast trip this year from San Fran to NY completely autonomous on city and interstate. They also have demoed sensors that can see cars through other cars.
    Teslas current autopilot and driver assist have been credited with saving lives when drivers failed to react to pedis and cyclists moving into the path of their cars.
    Google have deep learning algorithms that can predict the movement of pedis, motorist and cyclists better than people can and have reaction times better than people.

    All this stuff is still in demo and getting better year on year.

    So in short, given the current state of technology, your opinion is wrong.


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    #137
    TheQuietFella
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭TheQuietFella


    eeguy wrote: »
    Because trials in the US and elsewhere by Tesla and Google and others have shown that autonomous cars can safely coexist with other road users under nearly all circumstances.

    Isn't that the issue though, they cannot factor in the human element!


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    #138
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    TheQuietFella wrote: »
    Isn't that the issue though, they cannot factor in the human element!

    Why not? Humans factor in the human element. The algorithms learn by observing humans and driving on simulated and real roads. A computer has better vision, spacial awareness and reactions than a human.
    Sure they make mistakes now, but less and less as the years go by.

    People are terrible and dangerous drivers.


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    #139
    Stephen15
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,907 ✭✭✭Stephen15


    eeguy wrote: »
    Why not? Humans factor in the human element. The algorithms learn by observing humans and driving on simulated and real roads. A computer has better vision, spacial awareness and reactions than a human.
    Sure they make mistakes now, but less and less as the years go by.

    People are terrible and dangerous drivers.

    Only if the person powering has all those things. I remember hearing about driverless cars that wouldn't work because the road marking weren't perfect.


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    #140
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    Stephen15 wrote: »
    Only if the person powering has all those things. I remember hearing about driverless cars that wouldn't work because the road marking weren't perfect.

    Sure they've had autonomous trucks driving on dirt roads in the mines in Australia. The first DARPA challenge back in 2006 was on an offroad course.

    Cars don't need markings to drive. Sure it helps, but between their cameras, satnav and watching other cars they can stay on the road better than most people.


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    #141
    MGWR
    Closed Accounts Posts: 611 ✭✭✭MGWR


    eeguy wrote: »
    Because trials in the US and elsewhere by Tesla and Google and others have shown that autonomous cars can safely coexist with other road users under nearly all circumstances
    They have not shown anything of the sort. That is called argumentum ad verecundiam, taking the source's word as proof.


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    #142
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,329 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    eeguy wrote: »
    People and bikes already do what they like on the roads most of the time and can cause havok. What's to stop me walking out into traffic on Pearse St for example? Im fairly sure all the cars would brake for me. Probably get a few honks and a few curses thrown my way, but they'd still stop. I could sit in the road if I wanted and I'm sure no one would physically try to move me. More likely to call the gardai

    A driverless car will do the same. But the outcome is still that the AI will have better reaction times and anticipation than a human driver. AI will learn from thousands of recorded experiences of behaviours that a human can't experience and deal more effectively.

    I mean it's incredible even now to watch YouTube videos of Teslas driving autonomously, and especially when you see the differences in software revisions where people compare how better the cars deal with sections of the road that needed manual intervention previously.

    But that is now. Between now an 2025 there will be vast improvements in image recognition, compute power and machine learning models from global learning that it's difficult to recognize now how good it will be in less than a decade.

    But you don't have to take my word for it, just compare the advancement googles voice recognition to five years ago.


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    #143
    eeguy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,478 ✭✭✭eeguy


    MGWR wrote: »
    They have not shown anything of the sort. That is called argumentum ad verecundiam, taking the source's word as proof.

    I never made a definite statement. In certain circumstances, trials have shown a certain outcome. Sources back me up.
    What's the issue with that?


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    #144
    Varik
    Registered Users Posts: 12,483 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    Throw some pics up on Google photos to see how good image recognition is, insane what it can recognise.

    Don't have location on my pic meta but it knew from the surroundings where they were, and even grouped wedding pics together (prob by a few pics and then date and time).


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    #145
    aliveandkicking
    Registered Users Posts: 961 ✭✭✭aliveandkicking


    This stuff really isn't as far away as people think. If you're in the driving game it is time to make a contingency plan.



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    #146
    magicbastarder
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 48,299 CMod ✭✭✭✭magicbastarder


    Varik wrote: »
    Through some pics up on Google photos to see how good image recognition is, insane what it can recognise.
    AFAIK this needs an internet connection to work and does a comparison against lots of other similar photos whose content is known and tagged - so would be different from an in-car system where it may not have an internet connection, nor want to wait for the search results to be returned.


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    #147
    Varik
    Registered Users Posts: 12,483 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    magicbastarder wrote: »
    AFAIK this needs an internet connection to work and does a comparison against lots of other similar photos whose content is known and tagged - so would be different from an in-car system where it may not have an internet connection, nor want to wait for the search results to be returned.

    Wasn't a like for like, just a interesting observation on image reconition.

    For fully self driving an internet connection would likely be a necessity, couldn't really have it driving around like tourist who refuses to ask for direction in a foreign country and hope it eventual arrives at the destination.


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    #148
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    magicbastarder wrote: »
    AFAIK this needs an internet connection to work and does a comparison against lots of other similar photos whose content is known and tagged - so would be different from an in-car system where it may not have an internet connection, nor want to wait for the search results to be returned.

    Google just opts to do it in the cloud, it certainly isn't inherent to the technology. You can certainly do it on your laptop if you like. Plenty of libraries out their that do similar.


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    #149
    plodder
    Registered Users Posts: 7,126 ✭✭✭plodder


    Looking at the big picture, it's really the enormous increase in processing power of cheap computing devices, that is driving this. Self driving has to be primarily controlled by on-board sensors and computing power, rather than anything in the cloud. We're at the stage where the hardware is cheap enough now and it's mostly a matter of getting the software right.

    Though looking at that clip of the Nissan vehicle, it's interesting that each sensor has its own dedicated computer using 1.5kW of power which actually suggests the hardware has a bit to go yet. If the future is electric vehicles, then people will have a choice to make between added range, and self driving perhaps.


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    #150
    bk
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    plodder wrote: »
    Though looking at that clip of the Nissan vehicle, it's interesting that each sensor has its own dedicated computer using 1.5kW of power which actually suggests the hardware has a bit to go yet. If the future is electric vehicles, then people will have a choice to make between added range, and self driving perhaps.

    Early test systems often look like this. Just easier to make it work like this in testing. Part of the development process would be to take this and shrink the system to fit in one computer. Tesla's come with something like 12 cameras and radars and they use just one computer.


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    #151
    TheQuietFella
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,857 ✭✭✭TheQuietFella


    I'll lay money with anyone that within 20 years these cars, trucks or planes will neither be on the roads or in the skies above!


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