Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

bazlers · 01-02-2021 10:57pm

I can see ECM rolling back a bit. I think it went a bit extreme. Hope im wrong.

SouthWesterly · 01-02-2021 11:01pm

Paso Fino wrote: »

But will it snow in my location :P

Fingers crossed for even more nice looking charts in the coming days

It will snow 5.1 km up the road from you.

bazlers · 01-02-2021 11:02pm

Gonzo wrote: »

south Meath, half way between Navan and Blanchardstown.

North east offaly on kildare border. We got a foot id say.
Wouldnt be miles away as the crow flies. Just the way the streamers line up

Gonzo · 01-02-2021 11:05pm

bazlers wrote: »

I can see ECM rolling back a bit. I think it went a bit extreme. Hope im wrong.

I think after today's big upgrades a few downgrades are inevitable, hopefully nothing too major.

GFS Pub run is updating, what I would like to see is more of those mild outliers between February 5th and 11th going colder and the mean dipping down further. There are still a few GFS members not on board at all with this cold spell, we need them all onboard over the next few days.

As for the ECM somewhere between the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z would be fine.

Gonzo · 01-02-2021 11:07pm

bazlers wrote: »

North east offaly on kildare border. We got a foot id say.
Wouldnt be miles away as the crow flies. Just the way the streamers line up

During the BFTE Dublin/Kildare all the way to Offally/Westmeath did very well, north and south of this area didn't do so great. The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

If we do get this cold spell from Saturday I hope the wind direction is a bit more forgiving and variable so more places get a decent shot at the streamers.

JanuarySnowstor · 01-02-2021 11:15pm

The 18z isn't as good as the low blows up to our Southeast. Still bitter cold but goes to show a proper easterly is not set in stone.
Lots can change, more runs needed before we can say this cold spell is a certainty

Rock Lesnar · 01-02-2021 11:16pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

I dont know Gonzo, we had quite a fair bit of snow before emma arrived, we are not to far away from Lobinstown, i remember going for a walk and their was drifts in places that were waist high

As for whats ahead, if snow is not on the menu, i'll take sunny, cold and dry

JanuarySnowstor · 01-02-2021 11:19pm

@ 168 hrs heights evaporate to our North.
I know I sound like a broken record but without proper heights to our North this cold spell can't sustain itself imo!!

Gonzo · 01-02-2021 11:20pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 18z isn't as good as the low blows up to our Southeast. Still bitter cold but goes to show a proper easterly is not set in stone.
Lots can change, more runs needed before we can say this cold spell is a certainty

it's a definite downgrade, particularly for England and less snow for us too, the cold getting pushed back into Scotland as early as Monday/Tuesday. However until the runs are all completed we need to verify if this is a mild outlier before getting too worried.

Rebelbrowser · 01-02-2021 11:24pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it's a definite downgrade, particularly for England and less snow for us too, the cold getting pushed back into Scotland as early as Monday/Tuesday. However until the runs are all completed we need to verify if this is a mild outlier before getting too worried.

Also, the initial cold is there. That's the priority as that's what's coming into more reliable forecasting timeframes

Nqp15hhu · 01-02-2021 11:42pm

This is why I prefer N/Ne air streams. The cold air is not coming from thousands of miles away.

bosco12345 · 01-02-2021 11:49pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.

I live in Cavan along the meath border and we got buried in snow. +25cm before storm Emma which didn't give us anything other than strong winds. What part of Meath are you in?

pad199207 · 01-02-2021 11:50pm

So glad I held onto that fence

sicknotexi · 01-02-2021 11:59pm

If we're disappointed over this run then we really are in a good position. Should all be sorted by Wednesday evening, not every run is going to be perfect.

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 12:01am

I've a feeling this is a mild outlier, it's quite different to the past few GFS runs.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-02-2021 12:11am

Gonzo wrote: »

During the BFTE Dublin/Kildare all the way to Offally/Westmeath did very well, north and south of this area didn't do so great. The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

If we do get this cold spell from Saturday I hope the wind direction is a bit more forgiving and variable so more places get a decent shot at the streamers.

I don't think we had any snow at all here in Wexford before Emma came along if I remember it correctly. That all changed completely the night of March 1st however.

Not worried about the 18z. If the other models came towards that conclusion then I would take notice. Parallel is fairly ****e too though tbf

highdef · 02-02-2021 12:49am

I don't think we're likely to see scenes such as those in the attached video I made in 2018 in North Kildare, close to the Meath border.

An Ri rua · 02-02-2021 12:52am

Sesame St Bets Kermie.

We like the charts...

Birdnuts · 02-02-2021 1:25am

highdef wrote: »

I don't think we're likely to see scenes such as those in the attached video I made in 2018 in North Kildare, close to the Meath border.

Yeah - my folks live just outside Kill Village and they say it was even worse than the famous Dec 81' event.

redsteveireland · 02-02-2021 1:31am

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yeah - my folks live just outside Kill Village and they say it was even worse than the famous Dec 81' event.

Moved to Kill after the 81/82 event only have pictures to remember it, I was too small. My folks sent me some great pictures from 2018. This will be tame, IMO.

Humberto Salazar · 02-02-2021 6:03am

Big ECM run incoming. Last two GFS runs were not good for exceptional cold. The low running up through eastern England choking off the supply of cold easterly winds and mixing in less cold air from southern Europe. Still could be
a milder outlier. Not determinable for the next 24 to 36 hrs.

JanuarySnowstor · 02-02-2021 7:03am

Even on the ukmo there is no Easterly just a southerly running jet dragging in very cold air into the mix.
So cold and high risk of snow but as I said last night no decent heights to our North means burger and chips rather than fillet steak as ( Nick Sussex ) would say lol

Snowbiee21 · 02-02-2021 7:54am

Further Outlook: Turning colder with northeast to east winds feeding in wintry showers at times and hard ground frosts can be expected at night.

Met.ie starting to change their outlook

[Deleted User] · 02-02-2021 8:10am

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I don't think we had any snow at all here in Wexford before Emma came along if I remember it correctly. That all changed completely the night of March 1st however.

Not worried about the 18z. If the other models came towards that conclusion then I would take notice. Parallel is fairly ****e too though tbf

On a direct easterly before Emma,south wexford was hit by streamers
North of there the north Wales shadow came in meaning not enough fetch for the showers
You need about 60kms of water for the cold wind to fetch enough warmer water to build showers ,the longer the fetch,the better
So to guess possible local conditions, look at the exact wind direction
A subtle change can make huge differences for that reason

[Deleted User] · 02-02-2021 8:14am

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Big ECM run incoming. Last two GFS runs were not good for exceptional cold. The low running up through eastern England choking off the supply of cold easterly winds and mixing in less cold air from southern Europe. Still could be
a milder outlier. Not determinable for the next 24 to 36 hrs.

ECMWF is a big choo choo All aboooooard ! -13 uppers approaching this day week

bazlers · 02-02-2021 8:32am

AuntySnow wrote: »

ECMWF is a big choo choo All aboooooard ! -13 uppers approaching this day week

Yea exactly a week away. Its like an indiana jones movie to get to the holy grail of those -13s. Traps and pitfalls on the way. But it sure is entertaining and ive bought the ticket : )