Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Scubadevils · 05-01-2010 1:02pm

Thanks MT.

Given the specific mention of Dublin down towards the SE, does this give the North County Dublin area less chance?

nickhilliard · 05-01-2010 3:11pm

you'll have to excuse me for displaying some scepticism here, but MT Cranium has been predicting "moderate chance of between 1cm and 20cm of snow" for the last 5 days. Is it just me, or is this on a par with what I'd expect from most fortune tellers?

btw, i'm open to being convinced otherwise on this, given sound reasoning.

-n

Tactical · 06-01-2010 12:36am

Well I've certainly seen in excess of 1cm of snow and even in excess of 20cms of snow in the last 6 days so I'd say that MT is 100% on the ball.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2010 12:48am

Thanks, Tactical, but I will own up to being a little eager to bring snow to southeast Ireland the past 24 hours, it is certainly starting to snow along the Dublin to Wexford coast tonight, and may eventually get fairly heavy in places as winds veer from NNE to ENE and colder air streams across the Irish Sea from snow-covered northern England.

Otherwise, the general plan remains about the same, very cold away from coasts exposed to an onshore wind (like much of Ulster tonight), mostly dry but with snow likely to hit parts of the southeast and eastern Ulster, leftover flurries making it some distance through the central counties before dying out, and some lows near -7 C although with the stronger winds and cloud edging closer, temps may rise rather than fall after 0300h.

Tomorrow looks snowy in the southeast, and there may be a few heavy bursts of snow elsewhere in a mostly dry, cloudy to partly cloudy NE flow.

Thursday we're tracking a new disturbance from the far north that could drop 1-3 cms of snow here and there in Connacht mostly, but into Kerry and west Cork later, possibly. Winds will back to NNW for a while, it will stay quite cold, then clearing seems likely late Thursday to set up a very cold morning on Friday.

Lighter winds Friday with some sunshine, possibly a milder feel in some western counties as the upper support relaxes slightly for a day ... like +3 C might feel mild at this point ... then colder again on the weekend. All nights through this stretch likely to be quite cold wherever it clears up (-10 or lower possibly). The prospects for the following week, about the same regime of occasional stronger northeast winds with local snow, and otherwise, dry and very cold still.

We're having a dry, mild day here, about 9 or 10 C outside.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2010 8:45am

Wednesday, 6 January, 2010
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TODAY will continue cold and dry in most parts of Ireland, with periods of snow continuing in the southeast for several more hours, probably heaviest in Wicklow and Wexford, but possible anywhere east of a line from Meath to Cork. Amounts will be variable, 5-10 cms more could fall in places. The northwest coastal districts, especially Mayo, will see a few heavy but localized showers too, of sleet or snow. Otherwise, most places will have cloudy skies with a few sunny intervals, and brisk NE winds 20-35 mph adding quite a strong chill to highs near zero C (could be slightly below in places well inland and high up, above to +3 C near coasts with onshore winds).

Roads throughout the snowfall areas of the southeast may be very icy all day even if there's a bit of melting.

TONIGHT will see clearing skies in many areas and bitterly cold temperatures. The southeast snow will tend to dissipate by evening; the snow showers in the northwest could actually get a bit heavier in places and move further inland towards western Ulster. Amounts there could be 2-5 cms. Otherwise, look for lows near -7 C on average, -3 C in greater Dublin, and local freezing fog with widespread icy roads.

THURSDAY will see winds backing to NNW and areas of snow, sleet and cold rain over the western third of the country, arranged mostly by elevation and distance inland. Some heavy falls of snow are possible on higher ground in Mayo, Galway and Donegal. But many places in this zone will see a bit of sleet and icy roads, with periods of snow to follow. Further east it will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals and quite cold. Highs will be in the range of zero to 4 C.

FRIDAY will see this snowfall dying out early morning west, with some clearing but extensive freezing fog likely as temperatures drop off to around -8 to -4 C in many parts of Ireland. The day may see the fog persisting in places, with weak sunshine breaking through elsewhere, and it may be colder than previous days with lighter winds and highs near -3 C inland, near +1 C east coast and +3 C west coast.

THE WEEKEND is looking cold and dry as well, with some chance of light flurries in the southeast as winds pick up again from a NE direction, but also some sunshine each day, freezing fog patches in the morning, very cold readings overnight with lows possibly as low as -10 C and highs staying in the range -3 to +2 C.

NEXT WEEK will see the cold spell continuing, possibly with slight moderation, but also possibly with another snowfall event around mid-week (as per the ECM model).

Clear and relatively mild here tonight. Check the threads for updates and other perspectives on the snow and cold, if you have time to spare, I have to do that too as I've been off-line for quite a while.

Snowaddict · 06-01-2010 9:02am

Hi MT Cranium,

I just posted in the Model Thread how the latest ECMWF 00Z evolution shows quite a few snow showers into Eastern and Southeastern areas later on Saturday into Sunday & through Sunday.. A small feature, indicated on last night's FAX charts may well run up across Southen areas..

Also, regarding next week, the latest 850mb temperatures for the ECMWF evolution look marginal for snowfall away from Northern areas, as with the formation of the High over Scandinavia, the supply of cold air is modelled as being cut off into the weekend, with a gradually diminishing cold pool in situ thereafter.

SA

Darwin · 06-01-2010 11:18am

Hi folks, the BBC are showing (here) what looks like significant snowfall moving North to South across the middle of the country from 12pm Thursday (tomorrow). Any thoughts on this?

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2010 12:06pm

Yes, Darwin, it will be survival of the fittest (sorry) ... I posted about this on the million-page thread, thinking there will be a band of 1-3 cm snowfalls running north to south from about Fermanagh to Laois ahead of a shallow warm front that could bring sleet and drizzly light rain to western counties, as somewhat warmer air is trying to push into western Ireland from almost the due northerly direction. With this depth of cold air stacked up to meet it, the milder stuff won't make it that far east, I feel, and so the frontal zone will be set up in the western third of the country, with the central to east-central counties receiving any benefits in the form of snow. Could be a rather misty and foggy sort of snow, there would not be a strong wind with it, and temperatures close to -1 or zero C, rising to near +4 on the west coast.

Also, as SA pointed out, some chance of accumulating snows returning to the southeast on the weekend. Stay tuned. I'm off to bed here (again).

Darwin · 06-01-2010 1:58pm

Great thanks MT, looking forward to whatever arrives

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2010 2:16pm

UPDATE _ Wednesday 1:15 pm
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The east coast continues to be hit by snow streamers with some patches of hail, sleet and even rain (these more likely near the shore and at lowest elevations, also the urban heat island of central Dublin would be a factor) ... radar depicts some heavier bands that might be blizzard-like at times, and contain thunder. Snow pellets are quite possible too, these are not as icy as hail but look like small peppermints, or maybe not so small sometimes. These are a sign of heavy snowfall rates nearby.

In any case, all of this streamer activity is getting so well organized that it might develop into a west-moving trough having a life cycle of about 3-6 hours before it runs out of moisture inland, so while some coastal areas see 5-15 cms of snow from the complex, inland southeast counties like Kildare, Laois and Carlow could see 1-4 cms if the band holds together, and there could be traces of snow seen further west and into Waterford as well.

In a worst (or best) case scenario, this trough could hold together and just become the focus for Thursday's frontal snowfall event when it reaches central Ireland later this evening (if it can hold together that long).

Eventually, the coastal snow streamers should begin to dissipate but that may not be until 4 to 7 p.m. as they appear quite robust (in stark contrast to yours truly, who will now grab a power nap).

If you're seeking updates this afternoon, check the discussion thread in this forum.

06-01-2010 7:31pm

Well done MT-brilliant forecasting as usual today.
4 to 6 inches widely over south wicklow and wexford and into East carlow around hacketstown and Tullow and 2 inches into carlow town and down in to Kilkenny with more on the higher ground.
At times visibility was well under a 100ft in the heavy blowing fog of snow here

I managed to drive in the low box in my 4wd up to some higher ground near me just to about 600ft actually and depths were a very special10 inches or so of lovely fluffy powder

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2010 8:25am

Thursday, 7 January, 2010
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TODAY will become cloudy with outbreaks of light snow in many areas by late morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening. Near the west coast, the snow may be mixed with sleet or freezing drizzle. Snowfall amounts will be quite variable and 4-6 cms at most, that coming in a zone inland from the west coast towards the centre of Ireland (north to south). In the east, any snow is likely to come mainly as very light flurries except where one or two streamers turn inland by late afternoon (this more likely Bray south to Wexford).

Highs today will be generally -2 to +2 C but could reach +5 C near the outer west coast. Once the light snow begins, it will turn misty and rather foggy, and winds will generally be quite light, from a generally NW direction at first, but with some backing to SW along the west coast, while a light east wind may develop in the east by mid-afternoon.

Watch for updates as this situation is admittedly rather tricky to forecast.

TONIGHT any light snow should gradually end and there may be clearing after midnight, leading to more bitterly cold low temperatures and freezing fog; the lows will depend on how much clearing develops, and could range from about -4 C to -10 C.

FRIDAY will feature light winds, wintry sunshine after any fog dissipates (if it does) and coastal flurries in the southeast, probably not very heavy. Highs will range from -3 to +2 C.

SATURDAY is also looking crisp and very cold, especially the early morning lows when it could be down to -15 to -12 C in some snow-covered rural areas, and -7 C more widely. The day will feature light northeast winds, the slight chance of a flurry near the east coast, and highs of -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY will bring stronger east winds, still very cold weather in place, and a renewed risk of heavier snow near the south and east coasts, with winds E 20-40 mph adding quite a chill to the temperatures in roughly the same range as Saturday (lows -15 to -5 C, highs -2 to +3 C).

After that, there may be a very slight moderation of temperatures, but I am concerned that the models may be overdoing this so I am going to suggest a risk of snow continuing despite a narrower temperature range like -4 to +4 C, as winds continue fairly strong ESE 15-35 mph.

Meanwhile, Wednesday here was a mild and overcast day with a high near 7 C.

As always, watch for updates and join the discussion in the main forum threads.

dacogawa · 07-01-2010 6:35pm

Just saw 5 news and the english met office site http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html looks like we're in for some really heavy snow on sunday & monday. get the coal, milk and bread in!

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2010 6:54pm

UPDATE _ Thursday, 6 p.m.
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Today's weak system has proven to be so weak that it could barely muster some light drizzle or wet snow over hilly parts of Donegal and Mayo, and it doesn't look as though it will do much more than this as it slides on south. It is also running a few hours behind (perhaps due to the icy roads?)

More of an update on Sunday's snowfall potential later or tomorrow morning, I am concerned about mixing with drizzle or sleet as the main limiting factor rather than will it or won't it happen at all.

Redsunset · 07-01-2010 7:03pm

Yep it truly did die a death.The HIRLAM precip model proved to be on the money with it.
Was a difficult one to forecast MT but otherwise you have been spot on

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2010 6:09am

Friday, 8 January, 2010
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TODAY will be dry and cold with some sunshine despite a fair amount of low cloud left over from freezing fog this morning. In a very light easterly wind flow, some flurries could form near the coast from Dublin south to Wexford, but they may only affect the immediate shoreline. Highs today will struggle to reach -1 C in some inland areas, and +2 C about the highest.

TONIGHT will be back to clear, very cold conditions with more freezing fog developing. Lows could drop exceptionally cold if it stays clear, with the recent fresh snow cover. Some places could be well below -10 C but we'll say an average near -8 C.

SATURDAY will begin to see some easterly winds developing but with a rather slack gradient over Ireland, there may still not be much snow except possibly in the far southeast corner (in other words, Wexford and south Wicklow). Even there, I'm not too sure if the wind will be strong enough yet. With some sunny intervals and patchy low cloud, the highs for the day will be about -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY there is a somewhat better chance of snow, but still don't expect too much inland from the southeast coast where it might amount to 3-5 cms in places. While parts of England start seeing heavy snow due to stronger east winds there, Ireland won't necessarily be feeling the gradient until Sunday night into Monday. The temperature range on Sunday is probably going to remain about the same, lows of -15 to -8 C and highs near zero C.

MONDAY seems to be "the day" for a possible snowfall event but temperatures may become rather marginal in coastal areas, so at this point, three days out, I am inclined to say a mixture of rain, sleet and snow spreading fairly extensively through at least the southern half of the country, on strong ESE winds 20-40 mph, and temperatures possibly a little above freezing in many places, 3-5 C coastal, 1-3 C inland (after an overnight low in the -8 to -3 C range).

TUESDAY has me concerned because of the risk of sleet or freezing rain as milder air will definitely be coming in aloft, but possibly not so much near the ground. Temperatures are likely to be in the 0 to 4 C range with this messy mix and winds will continue rather strong from the ESE at 20-30 mph.

LATER in the week, winds may not be as strong at times and it could become very foggy as snow will likely be slowly melting in a lot of places, with additional drizzle or light rain possible, but with any sort of minor changes to the models, we could still be talking about further snowfalls especially in the north and on higher ground. The cold spell won't likely end with a sudden change to milder, but a very gradual and therefore messy change that will keep some higher rural roadways very slippery even if rain replaces snow.

Today here, actually I am trying to remember, that's how boring the weather has become here in a flat nothing sort of weather pattern. Good job I have this more interesting Irish and UK weather to look at! (our high was about 5 C with light rain actually).

My confidence on events from Sunday to Tuesday is not very high, I should mention, I am taking a sort of middle course between two rather different outcomes that I could imagine, namely, a lot of snow and strong winds, or, a rather disappointing meltdown in fog and light rain. So be prepared for almost anything beyond Saturday.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2010 7:42pm

UPDATE _ Friday, 6:40 p.m.
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Just a brief update to say that I have reviewed all the new guidance available, and found that there are only slight changes to the forecast scenario. My basic approach to this is that snow is possible in some places but that the bigger likelihood is a messy partial thaw coming on in stages from late Sunday to Tuesday, and that what people need to prepare for, more than a big snowfall event, is gradually worsening road conditions and even more slippery pavements in all but the best maintained and lowest elevation urban centres. In other words, it's likely to become a sloppy mess underfoot and on the roads, with a gradual partial meltdown of current snow and ice, renewed amounts of snow in some areas, sleet and freezing rain possible in others.

The details on a day by day basis have not changed from the above outlook posted earlier today.

This will be a forecasting headache for sure with many parameters showing up as marginal for snow by Monday. Essentially, what we face is the following trade-off, as temperatures rise and winds get stronger, humidity levels in the lower atmosphere increase, then a fairly strong impulse moves to the south of Ireland by Tuesday to provide further activation. If you follow my drift, while some factors for snow continually increase, others continually decrease at about the same rate. Somewhere in the process it's possible that an acceptable blend of all factors will lead to a burst of heavier snow (if I had to speculate, I would say Sunday night for that), but as time goes on, the trends all begin to converge on sleet as the more likely solution.

Realizing also that guidance can change at the last moment, all the analysis of this current guidance would be worth little if the set-up eventually changes to something slightly colder, in which case, heavy snow would be the more credible forecast.

Now, some might say, it's so cold right now, how can it get too warm to snow? The answer to that is in a broad sweep of air flow already setting up from the Ukraine through Poland and Germany, modifying the intense cold that was in place there yesterday, already by about 10 degrees (from -20 to -10, approximately). As this modification continues and the flow takes on more of a southeast origin, all of this very cold air is going to be flushed out of lower levels gradually all weekend, and I have concerns that by Monday, it will simply become too mild for accumulating snow, except maybe above 300 to 400 metres.

Anyway, this could all change again, next update is likely to be the Saturday morning forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2010 5:44am

Saturday, 9 January, 2010
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The long spell of wintry weather is about to have an interruption. However, it's going to come slowly, in stages, and then it won't necessarily fully change the weather back to a more normal mild spell. Also, there will be further snow and cold east winds before any moderation sets in, most likely Monday and Tuesday. As I won't have any opportunity to update this forecast until evening, check the latest thinking on the other threads in the forum (or perhaps on this thread if someone posts new forecast information).

TODAY will continue very cold with increasing cloud spreading from the east, followed by scattered outbreaks of snow, mostly confined to east coast counties where it could bring 5-10 cms locally, but with some lighter snow spilling further west. Some of this snow could become mixed with sleet near the southeast coast. Winds will be picking up gradually this morning to reach ENE 10-20 mph by mid-day and afternoon. Highs today will range from -3 C well inland to +1 C near the east and south coasts.

TONIGHT will continue cloudy and cold (although with the cloud, not as cold as past few nights) with periods of snow mixed in places with freezing drizzle. Roads are likely to become very poor where not extensively gritted. Winds will continue at E 10-20 mph and snowfalls of 3-5 cms may become fairly widespread away from the west coast where only trace amounts are likely. Lows overnight will be -4 to -1 C.

SUNDAY will see bursts of heavier snow at times, 5-15 cms potential for the eastern half of the country, 2-5 cms for the western half. This could be mixed with freezing drizzle, and by late afternoon or evening, it could be turning to sleet near the east and south coasts. Highs for the day will end up near zero to +3 C. Winds will continue ENE 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT, expect snow to continue inland and especially northern counties, while the falling mix will be mainly sleet or even a cold rain near the south and southeast coasts. Narrow zones of freezing rain are likely inland from the milder coasts. Temperatures will be steady or slowing rising from about zero to +3 C. Winds will be stronger at E 20-35 mph.

MONDAY will bring a real mess in many places -- some of the snow from earlier and previous to today will be slowly melting, as a steady cold rain falls, mixing with sleet inland, but still falling as snow in some northern and higher locations. Winds will become ESE 20-40 mph, and there will be fog from a very low cloud ceiling. The net effect of all this will be a sloppy mess with urban meltwater being ponded by slush and snowbanks here and there, while poorly drained rural and suburban areas could see flooding from stream overflow (especially near heavy snowfall areas from earlier on). Temperatures will be rising slowly from about +2 to about +5 C and winds SE 20-40 mph. In many ways, it would be better if it stayed cold and kept snowing, so we'll have to hope that's the actual outcome, but this is my call at this distance (subject to revision of course).

TUESDAY is looking even milder and there could be a general thaw and widespread flooding with periods of rain and strong SE winds developing, temperatures between +5 and +8 C in the south, although only +2 to +4 C in the north where conditions will be more like described above for Monday.

LATER in the week, I see signs of the colder air, never driven too far away from Ireland, will be seeping back in as the temporary breakdown fades, and so one might expect foggy conditions, a chilly damp +2 C sort of temperature regime, and eventually a return to frosts at night and chilly daytime readings. This pattern could eventually reload for another round of wintry weather despite any thaw that takes place.

Friday here was mild with occasional rain, temps near 8 C.

:eek:

nifheorais · 09-01-2010 11:24am

Freezing fog in Galway City.Might just go back to bed!:)

ch750536 · 09-01-2010 11:56am

MT, just like to say thanks rather than hit the thanks button. You put a lot of work into these forecasts and I have to say, you are good at this.

So , a big

Thanks.

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2010 6:24pm

You're welcome

UPDATE ... 5:20 p.m. Sat 9 Jan ... I have stumbled back to life thanks to strong coffee and the excitement of the last ten minutes of the Arsenal-Everton game (well five minutes were exciting) and reviewed the 12z guidance, finding it more or less unchanged, therefore any change in forecast from me will need to come from either new information or mass hypnosis (my way of saying, haven't read the other threads on here yet).

It looks grim for Tuesday in particular, if the GFS model has things right, an air mass capable of sustaining 10 deg C temperatures will be colliding with the cold air and the snow-covered ground, which can only mean one thing, but I notice that it only stays around for about a day before the cold air tries to take over the circulation again. That can only mean a second thing, whatever thaws will then try to freeze again later.

I am actually hoping this forecast changes before Tuesday arrives, but that's not my department. Unlike some, I have no claimed (or demonstrated) powers of precognition, I'm just reading off the models (or when it comes to long-range, index values from research) and not forming mental pictures of future events like Nostradamus. Well then, back to my search for new information.

I would draw attention to the cold "slug" moving west at 500-mb (halfway from the surface to the end of our atmosphere) now over southern England and progged to be over western Ireland by Sunday mid-day. What follows that is a steady rise in upper temperatures and "thickness" values, a measure of how much air is present in layers above the surface and the most reliable measure of thermal profiles to be expected. The critical value shifts from below 513 dm (very good for snow in Ireland or the UK) to 546 dm by Tuesday (likely to be associated with 7-10 C temps and rain) then back down into the 530 dm range (marginal for sleet or snow) later in the week. This is why I have a sinking feeling about the snow melting, but this applies more to the south than the north where the higher thickness values fail to arrive before being cut off (the bubble of milder air that starts in Biscay ends up going offshore again around Galway on its way to oblivion, mixed out of the southeast flow over the Atlantic).

By the way, for my updates, continue to check here, it's like a needle in a haystack to find them in the other threads.

Villain · 09-01-2010 6:43pm

Are you using just the models or are you taking current conditions and local influences into account?

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2010 7:42pm

Sure, I have a very close look at the current conditions before trying to make any forecast, including your very low temperatures in Carlow. I also make forecasts every day on a forum in the UK, so my routine includes a close look at all European weather as often as possible. I like to follow some of the charts on meteociel especially in these colder episodes. Thing is, the atmosphere has a way of overcoming any starting condition if it gets the organized power together, and I always try to assess how reliable a future model prediction is, then work out the intermediate stages that are inevitable on the way there, in some of these difficult situations. My idea of a messy thaw (by Monday night and Tuesday morning) is pretty much founded on the model positions of thickness and moisture, if these prove to be wrong, then I'm sure my forecast will be wrong as well, I guess what I was saying was meant to convey that.

I'm sure it must seem that this cold air is so "entrenched" that nothing can shift it, but I feel that it can be shifted by a strong enough push of milder air; however, some things will remain in place longer, like any heavy snow packs built up during the cold spell -- I heard from Tactical that there were some very deep snows near summit levels of mountains in Kerry, so it would take weeks of mild weather to melt all of that snow presumably. However, six inches of snow can melt in less than a day, given the right combination of temperature and rainfall.

Villain · 09-01-2010 8:00pm

Thanks MT only time will tell but the Met Office here don't seem to think we will see above 4c apart from the very South.

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2010 8:38pm

Apart from the invaluable MT forecast data I would also recommend the very clear BBC 5 day forecasts which are

Galway
Cork
Sligo
Derry
Waterford
Birr

( Enter any other town you care to in "Find a Forecast" here )

The BBC is showing a slight 'thaw' WEST of a line from Sligo to Waterford from Tuesday afternoon onwards to Thursday at the time of writing but not further east or north.

Mobhi1 · 10-01-2010 12:43am

There has been mention of ground temperatures being very low to a depth of 30cm which would take a while to thaw out so even if rain was to fall it would freeze once it hit the ground. Is this correct?

M.T. Cranium · 10-01-2010 5:42am

Sunday, 10 January, 2010
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TODAY, snow will tend to move further west, while continuing for a while near the east coast (especially the Dublin and Meath regions). The colder air will become more confined to the west by mid-day as temperatures slowly rise to near +2 C in eastern counties, cutting off the heavier snow and mixing it with sleet and then rain in a few coastal locations. However, by this time, snowfalls of 5-15 cms will be fairly widespread especially across central Ireland. With the snow continuing in the west (where highs may be closer to -1 or zero C) and mixing at times with freezing drizzle, roads and pavements in many areas could become quite slick. Winds today in all regions will pick up to reach E 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT the leftover snow and freezing drizzle in the west, as well as sleet or rain in the east and south, should become intermittent and it will also tend to become quite foggy with lows generally close to -1 C (although over remaining heavy snow cover it could drop to -4 C if cloud thins). Winds will continue E 10-20 mph.

MONDAY will see intermittent and mixed sleety precipitation, not much further snow except possibly in the northwest where a few cms may be added, but by afternoon and evening it will be turning a little milder again in the east and south as SE winds 15-30 mph begin to bring in some light rain and temperatures near +3 C.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY will see a gradual thaw setting in across most of the country, it now appears, although higher elevations will tend to keep their snow, so melting will take place from about 400 metres down to sea level, and could be fast enough to bring about some flooding, as temperatures rise to about +8 C in the south, +6 east and +4 in Ulster. This will be accompanied by about 15 mms of rain, if it were heavier I would be very concerned about severe flooding, but this combination may not overtax the drainage systems. Winds will reach SE 30-40 mph at times before settling back to SSW 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY will remain a bit milder with considerable low cloud, fog and mist, drizzle, light SW winds, and temperatures steady in the 3-5 C range. This will promote a gradual melt of some remaining snow and ice but in some northern hilly areas it could stay rather slippery and icy through this phase.

THURSDAY will see another system moving towards Ireland, but at this point it appears to weaken in time to avoid a further rainfall and could in fact help to draw back some of the lurking colder air from the UK, however, at this stage it appears that the net result will be a chilly fog and temperatures near 2 C.

There are signs of a more robust warming trend and a general thaw around Friday and Saturday, possibly with a heavy rainfall added in, as temperatures return to the 8-10 C range. This is not necessarily "carved in stone" and I may revisit this forecast after seeing other model output in a couple of hours' time.

Meanwhile, it has been a mild, rainy day here (10 C) and a very cold day in Florida of all places, some traces of snow were reported with a very cold rain falling most of the day, and now it has cleared to give a sharp frost (temps are as low as -7 C in places). Although you probably get your citrus and vegetables from other regions, it could cause a global price spike in a week or less.

Birdnuts · 10-01-2010 11:23am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday, 10 January, 2010
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TODAY, snow will tend to move further west, while continuing for a while near the east coast (especially the Dublin and Meath regions). The colder air will become more confined to the west by mid-day as temperatures slowly rise to near +2 C in eastern counties, cutting off the heavier snow and mixing it with sleet and then rain in a few coastal locations. However, by this time, snowfalls of 5-15 cms will be fairly widespread especially across central Ireland. With the snow continuing in the west (where highs may be closer to -1 or zero C) and mixing at times with freezing drizzle, roads and pavements in many areas could become quite slick. Winds today in all regions will pick up to reach E 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT the leftover snow and freezing drizzle in the west, as well as sleet or rain in the east and south, should become intermittent and it will also tend to become quite foggy with lows generally close to -1 C (although over remaining heavy snow cover it could drop to -4 C if cloud thins). Winds will continue E 10-20 mph.

MONDAY will see intermittent and mixed sleety precipitation, not much further snow except possibly in the northwest where a few cms may be added, but by afternoon and evening it will be turning a little milder again in the east and south as SE winds 15-30 mph begin to bring in some light rain and temperatures near +3 C.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY will see a gradual thaw setting in across most of the country, it now appears, although higher elevations will tend to keep their snow, so melting will take place from about 400 metres down to sea level, and could be fast enough to bring about some flooding, as temperatures rise to about +8 C in the south, +6 east and +4 in Ulster. This will be accompanied by about 15 mms of rain, if it were heavier I would be very concerned about severe flooding, but this combination may not overtax the drainage systems. Winds will reach SE 30-40 mph at times before settling back to SSW 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY will remain a bit milder with considerable low cloud, fog and mist, drizzle, light SW winds, and temperatures steady in the 3-5 C range. This will promote a gradual melt of some remaining snow and ice but in some northern hilly areas it could stay rather slippery and icy through this phase.

THURSDAY will see another system moving towards Ireland, but at this point it appears to weaken in time to avoid a further rainfall and could in fact help to draw back some of the lurking colder air from the UK, however, at this stage it appears that the net result will be a chilly fog and temperatures near 2 C.

There are signs of a more robust warming trend and a general thaw around Friday and Saturday, possibly with a heavy rainfall added in, as temperatures return to the 8-10 C range. This is not necessarily "carved in stone" and I may revisit this forecast after seeing other model output in a couple of hours' time.

Meanwhile, it has been a mild, rainy day here (10 C) and a very cold day in Florida of all places, some traces of snow were reported with a very cold rain falling most of the day, and now it has cleared to give a sharp frost (temps are as low as -7 C in places). Although you probably get your citrus and vegetables from other regions, it could cause a global price spike in a week or less.

That sounds horrible but probably accurate sadly:(

glimmerman123 · 10-01-2010 3:27pm

It's been snowing here in north Tipp since about 11.00pm Saturday night.Still snowing at the moment. Listening to the weather for the week from met eireann looks like a full thaw will take place by next weekend with temperatures recovering to between 7 and 10 degrees with strong winds and rain pushing up from the southwest. Looks like our long cold spell is coming to an end. If this mild weather breaks through will we see another cold spell before the winter is over or is the mild weather going to last for weeks?

Ally Dick · 10-01-2010 3:40pm

glimmerman123 wrote: »

If this mild weather breaks through will we see another cold spell before the winter is over or is the mild weather going to last for weeks?

Please god we will get several months of decent weather now. This bad weather has been no fun at all

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