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Epatante vs Goshen fighting fifth

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  • 23-11-2020 10:42am
    #1
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭


    Looks like an exciting clash.

    then you realise Moore will probably pull him, they dont want their bubble to be burst in november.

    Better off keeping away from epatante till chelters.


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    #2
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    aaannnd Goshen is out


    cowards


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    #3
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Goshen coming to Leopardstown maybe?


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    #4
    zpehtsfd
    Registered Users Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Starting to feel like PP all over again. No way they're being candid.


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    #5
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    i actually think sceau royale will serve it right up to epatante


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    #6
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    akelly02 wrote: »
    i actually think sceau royale will serve it right up to epatante

    Going great guns at the moment.
    Its his time of year.
    Lovely horse


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    #7
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    RivetingRoger wrote: »
    Going great guns at the moment.
    Its his time of year.
    Lovely horse



    credit to connections


    and has his ground ( at the moment )


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    #8
    Coneygree
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭Coneygree


    Pat Kelly would do a better job on Goshen than Moore is doing atm.


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    #9
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,375 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Coneygree wrote: »
    Pat Kelly would do a better job on Goshen than Moore is doing atm.
    Very harsh. Horse is Moore's stable star, he going to absolutely keep it wrapped up in cotton wool until he thinks it's ready.


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    #10
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    think hes over hyped anyway .

    but time will tell .


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    #11
    Coneygree
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭Coneygree


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Very harsh. Horse is Moore's stable star, he going to absolutely keep it wrapped up in cotton wool until he thinks it's ready.

    Wouldn't have had him on the flat twice if he felt like that tbh, made a complete bollocks of things.


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  • Options
    #12
    lemush
    Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭lemush


    Might as well wait until March to get lapped in a top two mile race.


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    #13
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    lemush wrote: »
    Might as well wait until March to get lapped in a top two mile race.

    You are either seriously over estimating last years Champion or severely under estimating what Goshen produced in the Triumph.

    It is very difficult to compare both races as they were run on different courses and different underfoot conditions but all times would suggest that Goshen was producing a wordly performance - to give it some context Saint Roi won the County Hurdle on the same card, at the last flight Goshen was 12 lengths ahead of Saint Roi when you run the races side by side. Considering Saint Roi was give an official rating of 151 for his run, that conservatively puts Goshen in the low 160 range and all that as a 3 year old. The BHA gave him a rating of 156 which is fair enough considering he actually fell. Our Connor was rated 161 after his triumph, so pretty bang on where I have Goshen.

    Was Our Connor lapped in top 2 mile company?

    Obviously load of question marks over both horse and trainer but to suggest, no matter how tongue in cheek, that he would be lapped is just silly. He is the same price as Saint Roi which makes little or no sense, and if that 8/1 ever becomes NRNB its an absolute steal.


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    #14
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    You are either seriously over estimating last years Champion or severely under estimating what Goshen produced in the Triumph.

    It is very difficult to compare both races as they were run on different courses and different underfoot conditions but all times would suggest that Goshen was producing a wordly performance - to give it some context Saint Roi won the County Hurdle on the same card, at the last flight Goshen was 12 lengths ahead of Saint Roi when you run the races side by side. Considering Saint Roi was give an official rating of 151 for his run, that conservatively puts Goshen in the low 160 range and all that as a 3 year old. The BHA gave him a rating of 156 which is fair enough considering he actually fell. Our Connor was rated 161 after his triumph, so pretty bang on where I have Goshen.

    Was Our Connor lapped in top 2 mile company?

    Obviously load of question marks over both horse and trainer but to suggest, no matter how tongue in cheek, that he would be lapped is just silly. He is the same price as Saint Roi which makes little or no sense, and if that 8/1 ever becomes NRNB its an absolute steal.




    i honestly think you can look into times etc too much. i think goshen is overrated , and that cant be proved right or wrong until he runs


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    #15
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    akelly02 wrote: »
    i honestly think you can look into times etc too much. i think goshen is overrated , and that cant be proved right or wrong until he runs

    Agreed of course and they are a far more reliable tool in flat racing in general. However it is also a useful tool when used correctly and when the conditions are comparable which they are in this case. The sectionals when comparing the two are jaw dropping to be honest. From the back of the first hurdle to the third hurdle (comparing times before they reach the first hurdle is futile)are almost identical - Goshen .3sec faster, but from that point on he is pulling two to three lengths clear between each hurdle and it was a steady increase as opposed to a short burst, which makes it all the more impressive.

    As I admitted loads and loads of questions to be answered but thrashing or downplaying the Triumph form is non-sensical. Aspire Tower was 14 lengths behind Goshen at the last and is now rated 152 after beating Abacadabras by 4 1/2 lengths and All man kind is now rated 148 after being 15 lengths behind at the last.

    All evidence suggest that Goshen ran to a mark of 160-162 as a 3 year old, he has 7-9lbs to find with last years winner, perfectly normal progression for a 4 year old to be expected to make. The last Triumph winner to win the Champion in the following season was Katchit, who was rated 159 after he won the Triumph.


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    #16
    Coneygree
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭Coneygree


    Goshen is some yoke but I still have huge doubts over his jumping, even though he was fine in the Triumph, the last being a fluke mistake. He's also been messed around with going on the flat twice. If they thought he was a proper CH horse they'd surely have kept him fresh and clean until now. If he wins in March, fair play, I'll eat humble pie but I can't see it this year at least.


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    #17
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    Coneygree wrote: »
    Goshen is some yoke but I still have huge doubts over his jumping, even though he was fine in the Triumph, the last being a fluke mistake. He's also been messed around with going on the flat twice. If they thought he was a proper CH horse they'd surely have kept him fresh and clean until now. If he wins in March, fair play, I'll eat humble pie but I can't see it this year at least.

    That is a massive concern, not that they ran him on the flat, again Our Conor ran on the flat after his Triumph win, but the fact that I have zero faith in Gary Moore. I am more worried about the two withdrawals than the flat nonsense.

    What price would he be if he was trained by Henderson/Mullins?


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    #18
    lemush
    Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭lemush


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    You are either seriously over estimating last years Champion or severely under estimating what Goshen produced in the Triumph.

    It is very difficult to compare both races as they were run on different courses and different underfoot conditions but all times would suggest that Goshen was producing a wordly performance - to give it some context Saint Roi won the County Hurdle on the same card, at the last flight Goshen was 12 lengths ahead of Saint Roi when you run the races side by side. Considering Saint Roi was give an official rating of 151 for his run, that conservatively puts Goshen in the low 160 range and all that as a 3 year old. The BHA gave him a rating of 156 which is fair enough considering he actually fell. Our Connor was rated 161 after his triumph, so pretty bang on where I have Goshen.

    Was Our Connor lapped in top 2 mile company?

    Obviously load of question marks over both horse and trainer but to suggest, no matter how tongue in cheek, that he would be lapped is just silly. He is the same price as Saint Roi which makes little or no sense, and if that 8/1 ever becomes NRNB its an absolute steal.


    Time will tell.He won't be the first cousin of a top two miler.


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    #19
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    lemush wrote: »
    Might as well wait until March to get lapped in a top two mile race.
    lemush wrote: »
    Time will tell.He won't be the first cousin of a top two miler.

    You have certainly convinced me with your well thought out analysis.


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    #20
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Paddy have a 4/1 special now for the weekend
    Envoi Epatante Honeysuckle
    €20 max bet
    Buying money


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    #21
    Plasandrunt
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭Plasandrunt


    where is that special I can't see it on site?


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    #22
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    Plasandrunt wrote: »
    where is that special I can't see it on site?

    Seems to be gone now, I got it at 5/1 yesterday morning, I suspect they had a little too much interest in it!


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    #23
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    Seems to be gone now, I got it at 5/1 yesterday morning, I suspect they had a little too much interest in it!

    Got it too. Must be gone!!
    Max stake of 20 brutal tho


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