Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 9:23pm

Fair chance of thunderstorms along the SW coastline ( more so Kerry and W Cork ) I would think in the early morning, could get some intense storms also. Don't know if they will come inland a bit or not. ECM keeping them more to the coastline, AROME showing some heavy rain / thunderstorms making it's way inland over Kerry .

Iancar29 · 26-06-2019 9:40pm

With cloud tops of the storm to the SW roughly 12km in depth I wouldn't rule out a potential sprite being visible from the coastline once dark.

http://www.nwcsaf.org/ARCHIVO_GIF/NRT/S_NWC_CTTH_MSG_Europe-VISIR_LAST.ctth_alti.gif

highdef · 26-06-2019 11:00pm

An area of active thunderstorms has recently developed in Biscay. They'll soon pass to the West of the Brest Peninsula. Currently moving North towards the South coast of Ireland but they'll start to turn more to the Northwest as they approach, I reckon.... That's if they even make it as far as Ireland. Maybe something to keep an eye on though. Could be some interesting viewing later on for those on the south coast.

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 11:09pm

Second round tomorrow perhaps, keeping it all for Kerry according to convectiveweather !

Not much model support for this now except from the GFS and Euro 4. Will be interesting to see if it comes off.

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019

ISSUED 19:57 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge continues to dominate across much of western Europe on Thursday, with an upper vortex continuing to spin over the Atlantic well to the west of Biscay. A corridor of significant CAPE will exist between these two systems (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg), stretching from northern France - Channel Islands - Cornwall - SW Ireland, as hot air between 700-900mb is advected northwestwards beneath cold air aloft and atop a (relatively) cool boundary layer. As a result, there will be a sharp low-level temperature inversion, and also very steep mid-level lapse rates.

Subtle impulses running northwestwards in the strong southeasterly flow aloft will aid the development of elevated thunderstorms at various times over the Atlantic and Celtic Sea through this forecast period. Most activity will be offshore to the west and south of Ireland, but may drift over southwestern parts of Munster - primarily during Thursday morning. The strongest cells may produce some hail (along with heavy rain). Some uncertainty exists over how quickly the steering flow will veer more southerly, but elevated thunderstorms could return to SW Ireland during the early hours of Friday (but low confidence at present, with most NWP guidance generally keeping this round of activity offshore).

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 11:17pm

Again chance of storms along the SW and W during Fri will have to see how this pans out.

Saturday the ECM is showing a lot of potential for a lot of thunderstorms activity, more so in the Eastern half of the country.

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 12:41am

The second storm cluster coming out of Biscay on a better track to catch the SW later if it keeps fuelled up which is quite likely.

Danno · 27-06-2019 1:00am

That's a potent and quick moving cluster. It might hit most of Munster by its trajectory

RobertKK · 27-06-2019 1:20am

Some lightning strikes around Kerry and west Cork at the moment.

Danno · 27-06-2019 1:28am

That Biscay storm is growing... it could hit much of the South if it continues to grow. Coastal dwellers in Waterford and East Cork should look out to sea in around 2hrs to see this arrive!

27-06-2019 7:15am

Looking positive for the South west in a few hours.

I saw last nights storm on the radar off the coast of the South West but it looks like it was way too far out to have been any fun.

This one looks like it might hit the South West.

It's amazing really, I haven't seen this weather pattern in many years and it just won't move over Ireland , sad really.

It's amazing to see all these storms tract North West when they usually track in over Mainland Europe, Over France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

The Low Pressure is just slightly too far west

jimmynokia · 27-06-2019 7:58am

After all this talk this week the entire country better get some kind of show..

Storm 10 · 27-06-2019 8:28am

Looking at NW storm radar the lightning activity nearly gone on that front to the South.

aisling86 · 27-06-2019 9:36am

I can't see many reaching land, all seem to be fizzling out. Hopefully there will be a better chance when the heat kicks in later.

Storm 10 · 27-06-2019 11:24am

No more lightning activity showing South of Ireland now looks to be over

27-06-2019 11:42am

The low pressure system is too far away and getting further every hour so anything it sucks out of biscay won’t be pulled over Ireland.

Shame , that low pressure system could have brought lots of action but I guess it wasn’t meant to be.

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 12:32pm

The storms never got near the coasts last night. I reckon the NE wind was too strong steering them and keeping them well out to sea.

Not much showing up in the models for today but will see if any developments later in the day.

Tomorrow good agreement I think of heavy downpours / thunderstorms in the SW and up along the W . Kerry showing possibility of big storms from morning with heavy rain according to the ECM.
Tomorrow is different as will have huge amounts of CAPE available overland with strong sheer and a trough / front brushing up against and near stationary along and over the SW and W coasts. Add convergence and the heat overland and could see lively action. Will see what the models show tonight.

Sat still looking like heavy downpours and thunderstorms more so in the E of the country during the day. Moderate / heavy rain following later from the W.

Jpmarn · 27-06-2019 3:33pm

Loads of lightning approximately 100 miles off the South West coast between Mizen Head and Loop Head according to Lightningmaps.org.

Storm 10 · 27-06-2019 3:37pm

Getting active again ok pity its not heading our way, one never knows though keep the faith.

Frostybrew · 27-06-2019 5:01pm

Jpmarn wrote: »

Loads of lightning approximately 100 miles off the South West coast between Mizen Head and Loop Head according to Lightningmaps.org.

Yes, there seems to be a lot of strikes. Some inland too in Cork Kerry. One hit close to me (<10km) but I didn't hear thunder. Are all these actual bolts of lightning or are there a lot of false positives? The above site seems far more active in terms of strikes than Blitzortung.

RobertKK · 27-06-2019 6:07pm

http://www.estofex.org/

A level 1 for the seas south of Ireland.
A level 3 for a part of western Romania, and lightningmaps.org is struggling to keep up with the lightning strikes there.

Rougies · 27-06-2019 7:16pm

Crazy amount of lightning in western Romania now

https://www.webcamromania.ro/webcam-orase/webcam-jimbolia/

https://www.webcamromania.ro/fauna/webcam-barza-alba/

Here's a map of lots of Romanian webcams if you want to follow the storm.

https://www.webcamromania.ro/harta/

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 8:08pm

ECM 12Z showing severe thunderstorms in Kerry/ Clare region from early and spreading slowly up the western counties . All the parameters lined up on this one. Deep layer shear, low level shear, source of moisture from a cold front,forcing, temperature, area of convergence and a huge amount of CAPE ( most impressive I have ever seen over Ireland ) . A good test for the model to see how accurate it is.

I will accept nothing less than a Super Cell !

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 8:15pm

AROME 12Z

Jimbob1977 · 27-06-2019 8:21pm

Lightning tracker shows the cluster clipping the South West coast on its way towards the North Atlantic ... with a few flashes inland.

DOCARCH · 27-06-2019 8:22pm

Looking very active off the SW coast atm.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=10

27-06-2019 8:46pm

Oh Man look at the recent met eireann radar, some action out the south west coast !

Jesus why couldn't that have come over the Island ? nearly crying here lol.

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 9:04pm

This is just the last 5 hrs !

From yesterday at 15.00

Storm 10 · 27-06-2019 9:10pm

Direction of travel means it's missing the South Coast all happening over the sea

eon1208 · 27-06-2019 9:12pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The storms never got near the coasts last night. I reckon the NE wind was too strong steering them and keeping them well out to sea.

Not much showing up in the models for today but will see if any developments later in the day.

Tomorrow good agreement I think of heavy downpours / thunderstorms in the SW and up along the W . Kerry showing possibility of big storms from morning with heavy rain according to the ECM.
Tomorrow is different as will have huge amounts of CAPE available overland with strong sheer and a trough / front brushing up against and near stationary along and over the SW and W coasts. Add convergence and the heat overland and could see lively action. Will see what the models show tonight.

Sat still looking like heavy downpours and thunderstorms more so in the E of the country during the day. Moderate / heavy rain following later from the W.

Met eireann has Saturday holding dry in the midlands. Is this possible ?

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 9:17pm

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:13 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge persists across western Europe, although as it slowly pivots slightly to the east, it allows the EML (elevated mixed layer) that has lingered over the Celtic Sea south of Ireland for the past few days to eventually lift northwards through Friday. A corridor of strong instability (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg elevated CAPE) will ultimately move across S / SW Ireland on Friday morning, which may phase favourably with a ribbon of shear vorticity, and shortwave impulse embedded within the strong southeasterly flow on the forward side of the approaching Atlantic upper vortex.

Forecast profiles are fairly saturated between 800-900mb, suggesting that low cloud may be rather extensive, with drizzle in places. An EML will be located above this layer, from which air parcels may be able to rise and lead to deep elevated convection - assuming some moistening of the profile occurs. Most model guidance is reluctant to develop much in the way of convection, and hence confidence is rather low for this scenario. However, the ECMWF and AROME have consistently, run-on-run, signalled the development for elevated thunderstorms over SW Ireland on Friday morning before moving offshore to the NW.
Given the magnitude of CAPE available, and the strongly-sheared environment, any storms that do manage to develop could become severe - with the main threat being large hail 2-3cm in diameter. As such, we have issued a conditional SVR area.

There could also be a few elevated showers drifting across NW Ireland towards W Scotland on Friday night, as the EML plume continues to shift gradually northwards and eastwards with time. Subtle forcing and rather dry profiles results in low confidence over how much, if any, lightning activity may occur.

A stronger signal exists late in the night, towards Saturday morning, for a new round of elevated thunderstorms to develop as the upper trough axis sharpens and approaches from the south. Primary interest would be over the Celtic Sea and eventually spreading northwards towards eastern Ireland. Confidence is not particularly high at present, so have refrained from including a SLGT here for now.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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