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Long Term Weather Outlook (Cold to continue?)

24

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Yes Nacho doesnt look great in that forecast but remember they are saying it will become "less cold", doesnt mean it will be mild.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Even if they are right Nacho, there is still plenty of winter left for the cold and snow to come back with avengence after that potential mild spell.

    It might be no harm having a break before that.

    I suppose you're right. As nice as the snow is to look it has to go at some point. Also Businesses, particularly the hotel industry, need some sort of relent to recoup their losses.

    M.T. did say he saw potential for cold to return towards Feburary. So all is not lost as you say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I suppose you're right. As nice as the snow is to look it has to go at some point. Also Businesses, particularly the hotel industry, need some sort of relent to recoup their losses.

    M.T. did say he saw potential for cold to return towards Feburary. So all is not lost as you say.
    Sur MT said this morning one of the models was showing cold lasting till new year, howl your horses there nacho.

    On a seperate note I just realised that I didnt see any one complaining about the snow on here this week with those special threads :)
    we are hardy folk up here in the North and West :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Yes Nacho doesnt look great in that forecast but remember they are saying it will become "less cold", doesnt mean it will be mild.

    well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.
    Be honest if Met Uk said there would be snowmaggadon for next week you would still be on here playing it down :pac: :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Sur MT said this morning one of the models was showing cold lasting till new year, howl your horses there nacho.
    :

    well what it was showing was less cold out to its furthest reaches, which is actually in line with the ukmo outlook, but after that they indicate a return to normal temperatures right up until January 17. well in any case it's best to just enjoy what we currently have and see what happens:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Be honest if Met Uk said there would be snowmaggadon for next week you would still be on here playing it down :pac: :P

    i probably would yeah as in my nature to be a pessimist, but i'm trying to change:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭bryaner


    Just paid €390 for 500l of oil last week, seriously piss off cold weather I need to get spring outa me oil.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭Mayo Exile


    well less cold at first, but with a gradual return to normal temperatures.

    An utter rout of the current cold regime by the 4th January!

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    So Darkman do you agree with Met eireanns major thaw prediction?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Every chart is now pointing to a big rise in temps from late Christmas Eve into double figures on St Stephens day across the south and west. Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,925 ✭✭✭th3 s1aught3r


    Anyone know what the longer term outlook is , when we head into January ? Is it just a case of waiting for the next Arctic system to push down over us again for a renewed cold spell , or do the models dare to go that far :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Anyone know what the longer term outlook is , when we head into January ? Is it just a case of waiting for the next Arctic system to push down over us again for a renewed cold spell , or do the models dare to go that far :)

    not looking good according to the ukmo. it would mean bastardi was right in the end

    Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
    A pretty landscape?

    Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

    Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

    At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

    Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

    Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
    Finally an end to it?

    Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

    Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

    Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
    Settled in to unsettled

    This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
    Next week

    Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    MEs 5 day forecast shows a lot of showers over me on Christmas eve, hope they are snow, and also Christmas day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    Now we are really talking FI but another Greenland express on the way in early Jan, seem like a two week less mild then two week cold pattern..?


    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Nacho you failed to post the start of the BBC outlook
    ;)

    Summary
    An Arctic end to the year

    Despite differences in forecast model output, sometimes contradictory, the majority opinion keeps us in Arctic air with further snow and severe frost until next the start of 2011.

    The New Year should bring Atlantic weather to our shores helping to raise temperatures, causing a thaw and allowing sunsine that actually feels warmer!


    Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
    A pretty landscape?

    Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

    Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

    At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

    Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

    Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
    Finally an end to it?

    Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

    Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

    Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
    Settled in to unsettled

    This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
    Next week

    Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.
    Monthly forecasting

    The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,626 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Nacho you failed to post the start of the BBC outlook
    ;)

    Summary
    An Arctic end to the year

    Despite differences in forecast model output, sometimes contradictory, the majority opinion keeps us in Arctic air with further snow and severe frost until next the start of 2011.

    The New Year should bring Atlantic weather to our shores helping to raise temperatures, causing a thaw and allowing sunsine that actually feels warmer!


    Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
    A pretty landscape?

    Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

    Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

    At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

    Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

    Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
    Finally an end to it?

    Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

    Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

    Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011
    Settled in to unsettled

    This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.
    Next week

    Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.
    Monthly forecasting

    The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

    just bear in mind that they are forecasting for the the UK, so while it may hang on there, in Ireland we could be back to average temperatures or above. Though, it does give some grounds for optimism for possible frontal snow- at least for a time between the 24-26. the ecm has consistently shown a swift breakdown which is why Gerry Murphy has a spring in his step:D, while the ukmo shows the cold air putting up a fight.
    one of the models is going to have back down come tonight or tomorrow. let's hope it's the ecmwf. also let's hope that like last January, the depth of the cold is being understimated by met eireann and the ecm, and we end up with another 12 hour period of heavy snow- just like we did towards the end of the big freeze last January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭200motels


    just bear in mind that they are forecasting for the the UK, so while it may hang on there, in Ireland we could be back to average temperatures or above. Though, it does give some grounds for optimism for possible frontal snow- at least for a time between the 24-26. the ecm has consistently shown a swift breakdown which is why Gerry Murphy has a spring in his step:D, while the ukmo shows the cold air putting up a fight.
    one of the models is going to have back down come tonight or tomorrow. let's hope it's the ecmwf. also let's hope that like last January, the depth of the cold is being understimated by met eireann and the ecm, and we end up with another 12 hour period of heavy snow- just like we did towards the end of the big freeze last January.

    looks like the mild weather will win out by Saturday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    yes, it's possible we could see another winter like 1947 in your lifetime, it's also possible you'll win the lotto. on the balance of probability, though, it won't happen again in our lifetime.


    Well last winter was a once in a lifetime event, with sub freezing temperatures, frozen lakes and lying snow for weeks on end. AND I saw it again this year!! [I know it's not the same degree as 1947 but it was an exceptional winter]

    So Nacho, you need to turn that frown upside down :P

    I did hear the words snowmageddon on these boards refering to the latest cold, so I wasnt exaggerating.
    Also, forgive me if I'm wrong, but is MT Cranium the guy in this article:
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/12/severe-weather-alert-ireland-and-uk.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The models look dodgy to me at 96-120h. Even those with mild breakdowns are not showing a very convincing set of maps. Some of the lesser models have no breakdown at all (the Russian and Australian models, yes there are such, have continued cold). Most dodgy of all to my eye is the GEM, it shows mild air pushing easily north with almost no height rises at 500 mbs and the jet stream still pushing into France.

    The whole business hinges on a slow-moving and rather non-energetic low south of Nova Scotia that on some model runs is hanging back for a very long time in that general area, while cold air pushes south of Iceland into the central Atlantic. This is a real recipe for model disaster, all that needs to go wrong for the likes of the ECM and GFS is that the low sends out a weak frontal wave and the cold builds in stronger. Then it would be a flip-flop on the next set of runs reverting back to the cold hanging on and even building back stronger than ever.

    What I'm saying is, don't count on this warmup being either strong or sustained. Some milder air could come oozing in on the 26th and then just lose its way without much support.

    As everyone is saying from top to bottom of the feeding chain of the weather game, this is a true forecasting nightmare and the signals are mixed to say the least. Past climatology says watch out for the breakdown delay and snow or mixed precip as a possible result. Also, this just doesn't seem like a realistic sequence, coldest 30-day period on record for this recent period at least, going rapidly to a zonal flow? Just doesn't seem realistic, a battleground period seems more realistic.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    A lot of people seen to be underestimating just how cold it is. . . There has been an unbelievably cold spell since late november, and there is no way that will just end easily and quickly. A temporary break maybe, but looking at how cold europe is at the moment combined with as mt mentioned before the rapidly freezing baltic and cooling north sea temps. . . The stage is set for this cold winter to make a comeback after christmas! (not to be taken seriously just my opinion of everyone elses forecasts. . :P )


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    well,well, well, look what has popped up, could ME have serious egg on their face we shall see tommorow on other runs no atlantic break threw here

    PPVO89.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Its the next chart (not yet created) that'll show the mild arriving as that low pressure finally arrives pushing up southerly air


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    I'm. . . . Dreaming. . . Of a white. . . Christmas. . :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,319 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    GFS 18z starts to adjust to the reality of the blocking surface high and shows a cold, perhaps even frigid, southeast flow hanging in very stubbornly while the mild sector to the west fritters away continually and extends to an occlusion. This is the classic split non-breakdown scenario where one low heads north and drags only slight warming towards Iceland, while the more energetic portion reforms southwest of Ireland and heads for south of France. I mean,

    wouldn't you?

    :cool:


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mike65 wrote: »
    Its the next chart (not yet created) that'll show the mild arriving as that low pressure finally arrives pushing up southerly air

    There is an awful sense of clutching at straws in that post
    as per usual and as per MT and a couple of the lads over on IWO it looks like a 50/50 chance for the mild to break through , but looking at the latest GFS I would think that the cold could win this one ,

    A breakdown will come , but I really feel that xmas day will not be it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I AM A WARMIST!

    /bring on the mild and murky damp!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mike65 wrote: »
    I AM A WARMIST!

    /bring on the mild and murky damp!

    Just noticed that you live in the snowshield of Waterford , I now understand your pain :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    mike65 wrote: »
    I AM A WARMIST!

    /bring on the mild and murky damp!

    so we've noticed. . . Isn't this better than the quays in waterford flooding every few weeks though?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yeah I tend to agree with the slow breakdown of cold but I do think it will get a bit milder by Xmas Eve and Day perhaps a top of 5c not the 10c that MET said on weather.

    Even my own forecasts here are in constant need of adjustment.

    Thats what makes coooooold soooooooooo excittttttttttting:D


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