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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

24567…37

Comments

  • #32
    Sycamore Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Zzippy wrote: »
    Sycamore Tree wrote: »
    Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

    An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.


    That must be a relief for you. ;)

    Aye it's great to shed those black spot ridden leaves. I am planning a total detox this winter to prevent another outbreak next year.


  • #33
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,044 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Have these strong autumn storms become more frequent? Maybe sryan might chime in.

    Don't want to ignite a climate change war, just seems to me that they are compared to when I was younger.


  • #34
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Depends on the hurricane season - some are quiet but some are busy. (not a hurricane) Charlie in 86 is still talked about

    Here is the current season image

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/300px-2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

    here is two years ago

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/800px-2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

    and 2006

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/39/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/300px-2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

    and 86 - look how quiet it was but we still took a hit.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/1986_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/800px-1986_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png


  • #35
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 18Z bringing the center of the storm closer again to the country, stronger winds to the right of the center with more widespread strong winds over the country.

    ICON often overplays the wind speeds a bit, nevertheless this looks very severe.

    Gusts

    tempresult_fga0.gif

    Mean wind speeds

    tempresult_vel4.gif

    tempresult_hvg9.gif

    iconeu_uk1-52-120-0_maq3.png


  • #36
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The storm en route Thurs showing 45 to 65 Kt barbs . Mean speeds.

    NOAA

    VTMN6Br.png


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  • #37
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Great posts Meteorite as usual

    Any chance you could remove the Joint Cyclone Center tweet? It is purporting to be an official source but actually isn't - the public could be deceived. Cheers


  • #38
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    So rare to have such consistency so far out.

    114-515UK_jza4.GIF

    ECU1-120_jbk7.GIF

    U120-21UK_sgm3.GIF

    iconeu_uk1-24-114-0_gvt6.png


  • #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Hope a speed up of this system will mean a Thursday night storm so schools n work on pay day wont be affected.

    A 100mm week of rain likely here in the Northwest


  • #40
    airy fairy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    I'm catching a ferry to UK on Weds, return Sun, I'm literally panicking, I'm not great at observing the charts, hit me with it, am I in trouble?


  • #41
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    airy fairy wrote: »
    I'm catching a ferry to UK on Weds, return Sun, I'm literally panicking, I'm not great at observing the charts, hit me with it, am I in trouble?

    No, I'd be surprised if your sailings were disrupted on either day (unless you're booked on a fast catamaran) . The potential for very low pressure areas in the near Atlantic during the next 10 days will mean a decent swell throughout and gusty winds will contribute to choppy seas, but nothing that the ships on all the Irish sea routes don't cope with routinely in the winter months. Pop a few Kwells, you'll be golden.


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  • #42
    airy fairy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭airy fairy


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    No, I'd be surprised if your sailings were disrupted on either day (unless you're booked on a fast catamaran) . The potential for very low pressure areas in the near Atlantic during the next 10 days will mean a decent swell throughout and gusty winds will contribute to choppy seas, but nothing that the ships on all the Irish sea routes don't cope with routinely in the winter months. Pop a few Kwells, you'll be golden.

    Ummmm, thanks, I think!!!!
    It's the swell I'm concerned about. I've got huge anxiety on smooth crossings, I'll be a basket case on anything more.


  • #43
    DivingDuck
    Registered Users Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭DivingDuck


    Anyone have any thoughts on whether this will still pose a problem for travel (driving, not air) on Saturday afternoon? Have to drive from Waterford back to Dublin, but could plan to stay an extra night if needed.


  • #44
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,094 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I think people need to take the usual caveat of -'Storm systems, especially strong ones, can rapidly change in the preceding days. If you can, leave deciding on anything until the Wednesday or Thursday before. Also, I'd like to point out that a system that strikes during the day on Friday will generally speaking have little to no effect on the day before and after (in terms of further disruption).'

    I normally paraphrase that for systems like this, and it applies equally now.


  • #45
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE looks like an average of the models this morning. Track shifted slightly W in general apart from the ICON bringing it closer to Ireland than the other models. Potentially unsettled weather to follow as wel.

    npTX0NZ.png

    cltkMmk.png

    tempresult_nmm7.gif


    tempresult_ypb3.gif


  • #46
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO very similar track to the other main models.

    9QblwnQ.gif


  • #47
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Last night was appalling here. Far worse then forecast? West Mayo offshore.

    Altering my plans for the week..


  • #48
    TopOfTheHill
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭TopOfTheHill


    Apologies if this is no the right place to be asking

    Due to fly out of Cork Friday morning (06:00), what are people thoughts on impact to air traffic, or is it too early to ask?


  • #49
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,094 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    TopOfTheHill wrote: »
    Apologies if this is no the right place to be asking

    Due to fly out of Cork Friday morning (06:00), what are people thoughts on impact to air traffic, or is it too early to ask?

    Too early to pin down exact timings.


  • #50
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Too early to pin down exact timings.

    This applies to anyone travelling from any airport on Friday too in case more people are curious.


  • #51
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    First mention of severe gusts from Met Éireann:

    Friday: Wet and very windy; southwest winds with some severe gusts during the morning. The winds will ease in the afternoon, becoming light in the evening time. Rain turning more to showers through the day.


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  • #52
    crusier
    Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭crusier


    Artane2002 wrote:
    Friday: Wet and very windy; southwest winds with some severe gusts during the morning. The winds will ease in the afternoon, becoming light in the evening time. Rain turning more to showers through the day.

    Artane2002 wrote:
    First mention of severe gusts from Met Éireann:


    Hurricane coming so


  • #53
    newholland mad
    Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭newholland mad


    Is there much rain expected with this system in the southeast?


  • #54
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    We going with one thread for Callum and Leslie? A wet windy end to the week coming!


  • #55
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    newholland mad wrote: »
    Is there much rain expected with this system in the southeast?

    Possibly up to 40mm by end of the week.


  • #56
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,480 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Can yis remember to link these event threads from the main season discussion thread? I completely missed this one till just now!


  • #57
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    Anyone expecting red warning levels with this?


  • #58
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Depends on track

    So far a little too far West for Red (just a little)

    But that could change


  • #59
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    6Z GFS keeps it quite a bit offshore for now.

    gfs-0-90_foe7.png


  • #60
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,480 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    17-pdr wrote: »
    6Z GFS keeps it quite a bit offshore for now.


    Yeah, but it's worth noting that the worst winds are on the eastern half of this storm, so you'd want it to go either way off shore, or pass over the east. As it is:


    1Cy1h1l.gif


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  • #61
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Yeah, but it's worth noting that the worst winds are on the eastern half of this storm, so you'd want it to go either way off shore, or pass over the east. As it is:

    Yep. I see Leslie comes into view on the last few frames of that chart. GFS has it following a similar track to the Friday storm (for now). ECM sends Leslie into Spain and dissipating.


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