Drought/Low Rainfall Watch - Summer 2018

Oneiric 3 · 07-07-2018 11:38pm

This rainfall forecast chart, which represents the mean of all the ECM ensembles this evening, still showing the hope of more general rainfall occurring later next weekend or into the early part of the following week.

A torturously long way off though and no significant totals in the offing, except perhaps from some spontaneously localised heavy showers that are forecast to occur in some parts of south during next week. Even then, this risk is quite low.

Will post update on these charts tomorrow night.

Graces7 · 08-07-2018 6:58am

Again, a slight moisture in the cool, grey air here in West Mayo. offshore island. Heavy clouds all around the ocean and mountain horizon.. restful day.

CrowdedHouse · 08-07-2018 8:52am

1.0 mm recorded so far in Oranmore, heavy drizzle/light rain since 8 am

Oneiric 3 · 08-07-2018 9:41am

ECM this morning seems to have picked up on minor trough feature moving down from the north late Tues/Wed that brings with it the chance of some rain in places:

Since this has just popped up in the latest run, I'd take this with a pinch of salt for now. Either way, this model is still showing the potential for some heavy afternoon showers for later this week, especially for more inland parts, but given that this is so far out, the best we can do is keep our fingers crossed for now.

Elmer Blooker · 08-07-2018 10:36am

Where has all our rain has gone?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/shortcuts/2018/jul/06/iceland-is-having-the-worst-summer-for-100-years-is-britains-heatwave-to-blame
This is not unusual of course, blocking patterns lead to these anomalies, for example that part of the world was unusually mild during December 2010.

Graces7 · 08-07-2018 11:11am

Maybe Japan has it..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44749847

Oneiric 3 · 08-07-2018 10:11pm

Here is a list of the highest average 7 day maxima recorded since June 1st at most of the reporting Met Eireann stations, just to get a feel of how intense the heatwave conditions have been for some this summer so far.

Shannon Apt: 29.3
Mt. Dillon: 28.5
Oak Park: 28.4
Gurteen: 28.3
Athenry: 28.2
Claremorris: 27.7
Newport: 27.6
Moorpark: 27.1
Mullingar: 27.0
Ballyhaise: 26.2
Finner Camp: 26.2
Casement: 26.1
Markee Castle: 26.0
Dunsany: 25.7
Valentia: 25.2
Cork Apt: 24.6
Johnstown Castle: 24.0
Belmullet: 23.5
Dublin Apt: 23.9
Malin Hd: 19.1

Some of these temps would be considered extraordinary on any single summer day in Ireland, but averaged over 7 days, are just phenomenal.

Data courtesy of Met Éireann.

ZX7R · 08-07-2018 10:38pm

A little change in the forecast there after the 9 pm news looks like heavy showers could pop up anywhere on wensday and tracking the possibility of more organised rain Monday week but much unsertanty on that.
They did not seem so bullish on the high pressure lasting after next weekend

Reggie. · 08-07-2018 10:56pm

ZX7R wrote: »

A little change in the forecast there after the 9 pm news looks like heavy showers could pop up anywhere on wensday and tracking the possibility of more organised rain Monday week but much unsertanty on that.
They did not seem so bullish on the high pressure lasting after next weekend

Thank Christ for that

sryanbruen · 08-07-2018 10:57pm

ZX7R wrote: »

They did not seem so bullish on the high pressure lasting after next weekend

I think that was always expected, the uncertainty lies in the exact track of low pressure.

ZX7R · 08-07-2018 11:34pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I think that was always expected, the uncertainty lies in the exact track of low pressure.

Very true sryanbruen ,I am looking at the jet stream pridecton charts wondering if it will keep north and will the tropical depression track further north with it and drag high pressure with.
Or will the tropical depression track further south as it crosse's Atlantic and pull the jet with it ,bringing cooler north westerlys

Graces7 · 09-07-2018 5:56am

Just checked the met.ie site as I do every morning, and relieved to see the prospect of heavy rain on Wednesday.

It is so desperately needed. A good long soaking to get things with a chance of growing again. Please God it arrives..

West Mayo, offshore island..still green but commiserating!

pauldry · 09-07-2018 9:28am

After this week it will become unsettled again by the looks of things

LEIN · 09-07-2018 9:53am

pauldry wrote: »

After this week it will become unsettled again by the looks of things

That's still very uncertain at the moment.
Also, a week in weather terms is a very long time.

hinault · 09-07-2018 2:06pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Just checked the met.ie site as I do every morning, and relieved to see the prospect of heavy rain on Wednesday.

It is so desperately needed. A good long soaking to get things with a chance of growing again. Please God it arrives..

I sincerely hope that you are correct in this prediction.

I lived in Florida for a time, but even there where I lived you could set your watch for the 3.00pm rain shower daily off the Gulf of Mexico.

Graces7 · 09-07-2018 2:51pm

hinault wrote: »

I sincerely hope that you are correct in this prediction.

I lived in Florida for a time, but even there where I lived you could set your watch for the 3.00pm rain shower daily off the Gulf of Mexico.

met.ie changed their minds... Was not my prediction..just the messenger.. :eek:

sryanbruen · 09-07-2018 3:06pm

Updated weather advisory.

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland
Update to drought advisory:

There will be some alleviation in drought conditions in places this week. However there will be little initial reduction in soil moisture deficits as evapotranspiration rates will remain high.

Next update Friday 13-07-2018.

Issued: Saturday 30 June 2018 18:00

Updated: Monday 09 July 2018 14:00

Valid from Monday 09 July 2018 14:00 to Friday 13 July 2018 12:00

Graces7 · 09-07-2018 3:55pm

Big big heavy sighs

mirrorwall14 · 09-07-2018 5:24pm

Can anyone good with stats tell me the following? I thought I’d read them but can’t find them!

Dublin airport
% of mean rainfall for May
% of mean rainfall for May

Nationally
Same as Dublin

sryanbruen · 09-07-2018 5:36pm

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Can anyone good with stats tell me the following? I thought I’d read them but can’t find them!

Dublin airport
% of mean rainfall for May
% of mean rainfall for May

Nationally
Same as Dublin

I'm guessing you mean June for the second one above?

May came out with 19.1mm at Dublin Airport which comes to 32% of its 1981-2010 May average rainfall. June came out with 4.8mm at Dublin Airport which comes to 7% of its 1981-2010 June average rainfall.

Data from Met Éireann.

mirrorwall14 · 09-07-2018 5:37pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm guessing you mean June for the second one above?

May came out with 19.1mm at Dublin Airport which comes to 32% of its 1981-2010 May average rainfall. June came out with 4.8mm at Dublin Airport which comes to 7% of its 1981-2010 June average rainfall.

Data from Met Éireann.

Yes I did! I’ll blame the baby brain lol.

I thought so. Just reading a thread in accommodation and property where someone was posting about how the rainfall wasn’t that much below average!

sryanbruen · 09-07-2018 5:38pm

Dublin Airport daily sunshine totals for April 19 to July 8 2018, must be one of the stations' sunniest periods on record. The run of consecutive days with 10+ hours of sun from June 21 to July 4 is particularly remarkable.

pauldry · 09-07-2018 6:08pm

At the moment there is a little rain promised Wednesday for Sligo then next Sunday onwards signals of variable rainfall daily.

I wonder how long before the East gets this rain.

Sligos drought will have improved by the middle of next week but no downpours yet showing

Cantona's Collars · 09-07-2018 6:27pm

I took a walk through the woods near the homeplace, normally lush green vegetation covers any space on the ground that the light hits but even the briars are wilting,many of the ferns have just died back. Everything is tinder dry and a lot of deciduous trees are shedding leaves.

Oneiric 3 · 09-07-2018 9:54pm

Rainfall totals and No. of absolute dry days (0.0mm) at a select number of Met Eireann stations over the last 30 days (June 9th up to yesterday)

Station|Prep total |No. of dry days
Dublin Apt|3.8|25
Oak Park|5.0|24
Casement|5.2|23
Moorpark|9.1|20
Dunsany|11.1|23
Cork Apt|11.1|21
Mullingar|11.6|22
Johnstown |12.4|22
Shannon Apt|12.5|21
Sherkin Is|16.0|21
Ballyhaise|22.5|22
Mt.Dillon|25.6|21
Mace Hd|26.7|22
Athenry|24.1|20
Valentia|34.3|22
Markee|35.6|20
Belmullet|39.8|20
Claremorris|40.2|22
Finner|42.6|21
Malin Hd|47.4|18
Newport|66.0|21

Data from Met Éireann.

Oneiric 3 · 09-07-2018 10:15pm

DMI model still showing the hope of some showery outbreaks of rain to develop over the North and NE late tomorrow evening into Wednesday. Areas further south and west might get a few lighter showers.

A lot of uncertainty regarding the potential for more general rainfall for later this week and coming weekend. The general model consensus is for pressure to fall towards the end of the coming weekend which would give a greater chance of fronts to break though from the Atlantic. How potent or useful they will be is something that is all up in the air at the moment.

ZX7R · 09-07-2018 11:04pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

DMI model still showing the hope of some showery outbreaks of rain to develop over the North and NE late tomorrow evening into Wednesday. Areas further south and west might get a few lighter showers.

A lot of uncertainty regarding the potential for more general rainfall for later this week and coming weekend. The general model consensus is for pressure to fall towards the end of the coming weekend which would give a greater chance of fronts to break though from the Atlantic. How potent or useful they will be is something that is all up in the air at the moment.

Some of the models look to build the higher pressure back again quite quickly, I have a feeling we could see a lot of disappointed farmers if it does happen

Cantona's Collars · 09-07-2018 11:21pm

Normally a jungle of green. The bit that did grow is now wilted and struggling.

Oneiric 3 · 10-07-2018 10:18am

As of yesterday,Dublin Apt, Dunsany, Claremorris, Mt. Dillon, Oak Park, Valentia :eek:, Johnstown Castle, Ballyhaise & Shannon had 19 consecutive days without any rainfall whatsoever. Can the 20th be achieved today?

Cantona's Collars · 10-07-2018 11:39am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As of yesterday,Dublin Apt, Dunsany, Claremorris, Mt. Dillon, Oak Park, Valentia :eek:, Johnstown Castle, Ballyhaise & Shannon had 19 consecutive days without any rainfall whatsoever. Can the 20th be achieved today?

No clouds in the Sky down my way in Wexford so Johnstown Castle will get no rain today anyway. Farmers getting seriously stressed as fields are parched and they are using their feed meant for the Winter to give to stock now.
I spotted one Farmer hauling old trees and boughs that were dumped in the corner of a field, I only copped that it was the only part of the land with grass growing as normally it's permanently wet and unusable land. Anything to get some green grass for stock.

Drought/Low Rainfall Watch - Summer 2018

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