February 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Yes, the intention will be to maintain a log of 1-2-3 cold max values from today on, people are welcome to take this on but I will be checking the numbers and upgrading any reports that appear if they don't show the updated 1-2-3 (if they are up to the contest standard then I will just thank the post and move on). If a station produces a second or third value that ranks 1-2-3, ignore it as the objective is to determine the first, second and third ranking locations, not the first, second and third ranking values (e.g., Knock could hold all three after three days colder than anywhere else, but we still need to know what location got to the second coldest extreme and third coldest for scoring).

Meanwhile, here's a summary of first week stats ... as always courtesy of a little outfit known as Met E.

IMT was 5.8 which was about 0.7 above normal (Casement did not appear in the ag summary for some reason, but is available in monthly data, their anomaly estimated).

MAX has been at least 11.4 (I looked back at a few likely locations once I realized the cold spells might prevent the early weak candidates from being overtaken, if 11.4 holds then we'll be needing minimum progression for scoring).

MIN has not been tracked with the colder spell looming, until today I don't think there have been any sub-zero mins.

PRC has been approx 140% (it was apparently missing rainfall data that kept Casement out of the ag summary as their monthly reads n/a). I checked daily values and compared with Dublin, all the values are there so I'm not sure what issue kept Casement from getting a total or a spot in the ag summary. The total was a little lower (mostly on the wettest day, the 2nd) so I estimated Casement at 200% compared to 235 for Dublin.

SUN has been around 44% of normal (est Casement 30% based on all daily values and comparison to Dublin again). Only Cork managed to reach normal, everywhere else was even cloudier than the average (Johnstown Castle which we don't use was 63%).

The low max will be tracked starting today.

After two weeks ...

IMT back up to 4.4 with the second week average 3.0 which was 2.4 below normal for the week.

MAX 13.9 and MIN -4.2

PRC is now at 116% with the second week registering 93% of normal, Cork had a significant surplus and a few other places were rather dry.

SUN remains well below normal at about 50%. The second week average was 54.5% (327/600) and Cork only 7% while Belmullet had more than their normal amount.

Low max contest scoring is shown in previous post (unless we get another cold spell that alters any of the locations or the current low max of 1.4).

After four weeks, more or less the final data for February (to be checked against Monthly Summary) ...

IMT finished on 6.1 C, fourth week average was 7.5 (1.6 above normal).

MAX 14.6 and MIN -4.2

PRC finished around 146% with the fourth week average at 115% of normal.

SUN finished about 97.5% of normal with the fourth week at 159% (956/600).

Validation from MS and direct from climate data,

IMT _ 6.1 ... MAX _ 14.6 ... MIN _ -4.2 ... PRC _ 148% ... SUN _ 102%

Scoring for February 2021


FORECASTER _________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus ____ TOTAL



Kindred Spirit _________ 23*_ 18 _ 15*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 05 _____ 82

WesternStorm _________18*_ 19 _ 17*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 08 _____ 81

Eon1208 _____________ 23*_ 07 _ 16*_ 14*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 76

Jpmarn ______________ 18*_ 18 _ 12*_ 13*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 76

sryanbruen ___________ 16*_ 15 _ 19*_ 04*_ 10 ___ 12 _____ 76


___ NormaL __________ 24*_ 11 _ 15*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 08 _____ 76


appledrop ____________ 10*_ 14 _ 17*_ 12*_ 10 ___ 12 _____ 75

john mac _____________23*_ 00 _ 18*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 68

adam240610 __________14*_ 18 _ 15*_ 09*_ 06 ___ 06 _____ 68

200motels _____ (-3) ___14*_ 13 _ 14*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 12 __68-3=65

Tae laidir _____________20*_ 17 _ 08*_ 03*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 64

MrSkinner ____________ 20*_ 13 _ 12*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 63

waterways ____________16*_ 19 _ 06*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 62

Dacogawa ____________ 11*_ 15 _ 11*_ 10*_ 10 ___ 03 _____ 60


___ Con Sensus _______ 11*_ 18 _ 12*_ 04*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 59


Mr stonewall __________ 11*_ 18 _ 14*_ 03*_ 08 ___ 05 _____ 59

CirrusBusiness _________16*_ 16 _ 06*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 53

Bsal _________________05*_ 14 _ 06*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 50

DOCARCH ____________03*_ 16 _ 13*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 50

Artane2002 ___________10*_ 08 _ 14*_ 03*_ 09 ___ 04 _____ 48

Pauldry ______________ 07*_ 16 _ 10*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 03 _____ 47

Dasa29 ______________ 12*_ 00 _ 11*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 03 _____ 43

Joe Public ____________ 06*_ 13 _ 10*_ 03*_ 06 ___ 04 _____ 42

SleetAndSnow __(-2)___ 02*_ 20 _ 04*_ 03*_ 10 ___ 04 __43-2=41

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) __ 04*_ 16 _ 08*_ 04*_ 09 ___ 03 __44-4=40

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___01*_ 09 _ 16*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 03 __40-3=37

M.T. Cranium __________08*_ 09 _ 07*_ 01*_ 08 ___ 04 _____ 37

Tazio _________ (-2) ___01*_ 00 _ 12*_ 08*_ 05 ___ 02 __28-2=26

BLIZZARD7 ___________00*_ 17 _ 00*_ 02*_ 00 ___ 02 _____ 21

Gonzo _______________01*_ 07 _ 00*_ 01*_ 08 ___ 03 _____ 20

Danno _______________00*_ 00 _ 00*_ 03*_ 00 ___ 02 __ 05-->10

________________________________________________________

Notes: * elements are given boosted scores by minimum progression rule.
Minimum score of 10 applies to one total.

Raw scores were generally one third to one half of boosted scores. Our leader KS (83) had a raw score of 50, Western Storm
would have scored 57. Since the max, sunshine and bonus scored normally, those account for most of the raw scores.

Scoring parameters will be checked after the MS review.

======================================

(actual forecasts)


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n


___ NormaL __________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ +3.0 (loc'n by climat)


Eon1208 _____________ 5.0 _ 15.9 _ -6.2 _ 119 _ 096 ___ +0.5 Mullingar

Kindred Spirit _________ 5.0 _ 14.4 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 0.0 Markree

john mac _____________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ +2.2 Markree

Tae laidir _____________4.9 _ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 084 _ 108 ___ +0.4 Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ____________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -7.9 _ 079 _ 109 ___ +0.9 Markree

WesternStorm _________4.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 098 ____ 0.0 Knock

Jpmarn ______________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock

sryanbruen ___________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ +0.8 Knock

waterways ____________4.7 _ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 095 _ 107 ___ +0.6 Mount Dillon

CirrusBusiness ________ 4.7 _ 14.2 _ -9.3 _ 080 _ 105 ___ -1.3 Ballyhaise

adam240610 __________4.6 _ 14.8 _ -6.9 _ 101 _ 122 ___ +0.1 Ballyhaise

200motels _____ (-3) ___4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ +0.7 Knock

Dasa29 ______________ 4.5 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115 ___ -2.0 Mullingar

Mr stonewall __________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.2 _ 083 _ 091 ___ -0.8 Ballyhaise

Dacogawa ____________ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ -2.2 Ballyhaise


___ Con Sensus _______ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 106 ___ -1.0


Artane2002 ___________ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

appledrop ____________ 4.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ +1.8 Knock

M.T. Cranium __________4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree

Pauldry ______________ 4.1 _ 15.0 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105 ___ -2.0 Ballyhaise

Joe Public ____________ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 085 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

Bsal _________________3.9 _ 14.0 _-10.0_ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) ___3.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.5 _ 090 _ 096 ___ -1.7 Mullingar

DOCARCH ____________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

SleetAndSnow __(-2)____3.4 _ 14.6 _-11.2_ 087 _ 103 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___ 3.2 _ 13.5 _ -6.8 _ 080 _ 095 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Tazio _________ (-2) ___3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125 ___ -5.5 Cork Airport

Gonzo _______________ 2.9 _ 15.9 _-12.8_ 072 _ 112 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Danno _______________ 1.7 _ 11.9 _-14.2_ 085 _ 175 ___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 1.3 _ 14.3 _-13.7_ 080 _ 170 ___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

________________________________________________________

29 forecasts to this point, all are below the February average IMT ... shades of Dec 2010.

Con Sensus is the median value, 15th ranked ... will change slightly if any further entries are
received.

For low max location, the count of stations suggested is

Ballyhaise _____ 13 ___ Con Sensus scores 3 if correct

Knock _________ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Markree ________4 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mullingar _______ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 2 ___ Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

Cork, Casement _ 1 each Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

all others _______ -- ___ Con Sensus scores 0 if correct

(Normal scores 3 for any of the above that got 2+ votes, 2 or 1 by climatology otherwise)

Your score will be based on the order (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the low max at the location you selected.

Any qualifiers that occur at other stations will be disregarded in that part of the scoring, but counted for

the 7/10 portion related to the temperature value. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available on this one.