UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Exciting times here with my big priced picks for tonight.(odds from Hills, not necessarily the best price)

I have my first "Lock of the Week", 5 of Mo-reese Green's 9 wins have come by sub, interestingly 5 of De Lima's 7 defeats have come by sub. Green by sub is 5/1, fill yer boots.

Think Magny can do it tonight, and if he does it will be by decision, 5/2

Alex Morono has a poor record, but I really do think Cowboy is totally past it so Morono is worth a bet at 8/5

Christian Aguilera was the outsider against a guy making his UFC debut so went for him at 11/8.

I think Ludovit Klein will win but thought he was too short so went for Trizano at 19/10

Gone for Phil Hawes at 11/10, he is 2/2 in UFC and is on a good run.

Amanda Ribas has a decent record and is probably better than Angela Hill so took her on pts at 11/8.

In other bets, Gregor is very short at 4/7 against a guy who missed weight by 4.5lbs, but Gregor was approaching hypetrain territory b4 he got starched in his last fight, which shockingly was 18 months ago. Time flies. So I still think he will have the quality to win.

In a terrible main event I went for Rodriguez at 4/9, didn't do the "by pts" oddsbooster as it is 5 rounds.

mailburner wrote: »

I recall having a decent bet on romanov to sub lima

Those are decent odds, goes past the first and I'd be confident too but definitely overpriced

Moreno is pretty tough, think he'll go after cowboy early but whether he's got the tools to put him away I'm not sure

been robbed many times backing against magny and I think neal might get a ko so that's where I'm at now 2/1

PP Power price Green by Sub 7/1

Neal ko 9/4
greene sub 7/1
morono pts 10/3

paddy letting me double their enhanced prices

pretty sure they won't let you do anything more than a single
on those normally

Any thoughts on chandler oliveira?

I want oliveira to win pretty bad and don't think Chandler deserves a shot
after one ufc bout and I'm trying not to let my heart rule my head as I really like oliveira also


Oliveira has looked amazing in his fights but I think he may have beaten a washed up ferguson and Kevin Lee who's now 2/4 in his last 6 and outside of that the rest of his wins (lat 8) were fighters who were probably not top 15 even top 20 in the division.


Chandler is on a three ko wins streak v dan hooker last time, before that ben henderson...only the second man to ko bendo also, has fought some good fighters over the years and his fights v alvarez were pretty epic.


Chandler has never been subbed and been ko'd 3 times all by bellator champions and I don't think he'll be worried about Oliveiras power.
So really I am surprised Chandler is the underdog and if Darisuh beats Tony then we'll know for sure if Tony is washed up which will increase confidence for me anyway.

So chandler at 6/5 or chandler ko at 21/10 the dilemma
I don't think I can get away from chandler here at all.

He's 2/1 with pp for the ko but I've a feeling they'll enhance that to maybe 9/4

mailburner wrote: »

He's 2/1 with pp for the ko but I've a feeling they'll enhance that to maybe 9/4

9/4 with pp only now


More worryingly the pp mma tip page have gone for chandler by ko and they have provided 3 winners from their last 27 picks

I like barbosa also and surprised he's the underdog, some have written him off but his last two losses were splits v ige and felder and those guys
are better than burgos imo

Thinking pts at 11/4

I like grundy pts at 2/1 also, forner commonwealth wrestling bronze medalist wont have any problems getting vannata down
Grundy sub at 7/1 could look very big when this is done though

Dariush is very short and I think he might get it done but if he starts fast like he normally does and if tony is still standing after 8-10mins I think he could be hanging on in the end
I can't back him at 4/6 or 6/4 pts, would want 2s to be taking pts myself.
My gut says to maybe stick a few euro on tony round 3 at 16s, he may be washed up but he's still tough as nails and dariush is no gaethje or oliviera

I don't remember seeing a card with almost all the fights being so close in price, crazy. So that means not huge value on offer for upsets.

Did the standard pts odds booster on the women's fights. Mazany at evs, Shevchencko 13/10 and Araujo at 2/1

I sadly think Tony is past it, so Dariush at 8/13.

Don't know a whole pile about Chandler, the only fight of his I saw in Bellator was the one where the guy pulled away his stool and he sat on his a$$. 11/10 seems value.

Took Barboza at 6/5, think Jacare might also be past it so Muniz at evens.

All prices from Hills, better prices prob available elsewhere.

The crowd was incredible at the last PPV and there was a crazy amount of drama in it, lots of finishes, Weidman's leg kick etc. Hopefully it will be similar tonight.

much as I fancy chandler and he'll probably be my biggest bet, surely Grundy at close to evens is an absolute steal?

He ought to be able to take vannata down at will

mailburner wrote: »

who do you fancy for the main event?

I think it'll be pretty close. But If Oliveria can survive Chandler's bursts in roudn 1, I think he'll get the sub in 2 or 3. I imagine it makes it to the ground at some point in 2 or 3.

mailburner wrote: »

much as I fancy chandler and he'll probably be my biggest bet, surely Grundy at close to evens is an absolute steal?

He ought to be able to take vannata down at will

I was almost given a gift by some incompetant judging

vannata was perfect in there

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm going Dariush round 1 and Chandler by ko.

Agree with Dariush, throwing in with Oliviera though.

Not seen enough of chandler or oliviera fights to be properly educated on it though.

mailburner wrote: »

9/4 with pp only now


More worryingly the pp mma tip page have gone for chandler by ko and they have provided 3 winners from their last 27 picks

This guy is unreal :pac: (4 from 30 now)

mailburner wrote: »

This guy is unreal :pac: (4 from 30 now)

When you say 4 from 30. I thought you means winners only, not winner and method.

Still terrible, even if he was guessing blind, you'd expect to get 6 or 7 winner and methods

mailburner wrote: »

Just took Hermansson sub 5/1 with paddy power surely a bit of value with some as short as 2/1


Shahbazyan had a nightmare v brunson and surely can't be this bad again but it was worrying how little he had left after a round.
I don't think jack will have too much trouble getting him down and keeping him down to be honest so Shahb might need to get it done early as jack will go all day.
Shahb has serious power though and the 11/2 for a round one finish looks his best shot but only thiago santos has gotten Jack outa there in a round and that was with one second to go so it's a big ask

saver on Herm pts at 4/1 pp


https://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/jack-hermansson-v-edmen-shahbazyan/method-of-victory

pts it is

so much time on top in round two or three I thought the sub
would come at some stage

prices after round one were 1/4 shah 11/4 jack

I couldn't go in again though I regret not jumping on that price given how durable Jack is.

tinpib wrote: »

Yilan Sha is a newcomer which normally is a bad sign but his opponent isn't pulling up trees, Yilan is 21/10

That’s the issue with looking at just the record on wiki or whereever it doesn’t give the real picture. Unfortunately it’s all we have to go on sometimes.

Josh’s UFC debut was a short notice fight up a division. Doesn’t really count against ability. Next fight he beat Jourdain over 2 rounds and got a very unlucky draw due to a questionable 10-8. Dana paid him his win bonus regardless.

He’s a much better fighter than those results suggested. But wouldn’t expect anyone to remember those kind of details.
I thought he looked really good in there tonight.