Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Options
1…114115116117118120»

Comments

  • Options
    #3572
    iagreebut
    Site Banned Posts: 109 ✭✭iagreebut


    Will we have enough dryness for the river's to drop their levels over the next few days.

    The trout season opened up, and I'm dying to chuck a few files down the local weir..


  • Options
    #3573
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    And despite that, I'd say overall it's probably the most enjoyable and pleasant season we have for most people. Days getting longer, first signs of warmth, nature coming back to life, statistically the driest and sunniest season and we all have the naive optimism that the summer ahead will be a scorcher!

    was thinking the same myself, it can be very quiet weatherwise but the increase in daylight and sun higher in the sky with just a couple of extra degrees celsius increase the impact on Nature activity is bigger than any other time of year


  • Options
    #3574
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    overall it looks high pressure dominated for the next 7 days, with a general Southerly or South Westerly Airflow keeping temperatures a couple of degrees above average for everywhere except the South Coast. after that it's still high pressure dominated but with the placement of the high shifted East I would think we may get some continental air with it's origin from scandinavia but modified so that temps won't fall that much and the West seeing the better weather and temperatures


  • Options
    #3575
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Anyone ever heard of this "ECM" model?

    ECM0-192.GIF?26-12

    ECM0-240.GIF?26-12


  • Options
    #3576
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    GFS rollout has dry dry dry


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3577
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM has been fairly terrible all winter past 144 hours.


  • Options
    #3578
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    pauldry wrote: »
    GFS rollout has dry dry dry

    For how long ?


  • Options
    #3579
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Anyone ever heard of this "ECM" model?

    ECM0-192.GIF?26-12

    ECM0-240.GIF?26-12

    Just need that high to move a 100 miles or so west!


  • Options
    #3580
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Gonzo wrote: »
    ECM has been fairly terrible all winter past 144 hours.

    You are correct. Hopefully it will be wrongly placing the -14s over the Netherlands rather than us.:)


  • Options
    #3581
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM is also a big outlier, but when it's showing us missing out on the coldest uppers it's probably right. Also it has support from other models. It seems the story of our winter might carry on into early Spring!


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3582
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I, for one, think we are edging closer to a colder phase from later next week. Not quite there yet on the models.


  • Options
    #3583
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Everything we post here is already into the Spring and Spring starts on Monday. I'm thinking about closing this thread over the weekend. Winter has ended on an exceptionally mild note with the February mean already well past 6C in many stations. Overall February will be the mildest month of the winter and if it wasn't for the first 10 days of the month being colder than average, we could have come close to the record breaking February 2019 for overall warmth.

    However we can be fooled into thinking Spring has well and truly sprung and that it's going to be solidly mild for all of March. The models are definitely firming up on another cool to cold spell, small chance of an easterly/north-easterly and a bigger chance of a brief cold northerly and some cold zonality following. First third of February was cold while the later 2/3s have been very mild. March could also divide into thirds with the first third being mild and dry but the later 2/3s could be unsettled and relatively cool. This evenings charts could be interesting.


  • Options
    #3584
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,447 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Here is the ECM operational run

    ECM1-168.GIF?26-0

    New, soon to be operational run, now available on Meteociel

    ECM1-168.GIF?26-0

    Decent enough trend to allow colder air in from the north/northeast.

    How cold remains to be seen.


  • Options
    #3585
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Still plenty to interest from the overnight ECM. Still not cold enough for March, still out on its own ( but others moving toward it rather than other way around) but hard not to be a little excited by the below chart from just 7 days away...

    ECM0-168.GIF?27-12


  • Options
    #3586
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Still plenty to interest from the overnight ECM. Still not cold enough for March, still out on its own ( but others moving toward it rather than other way around) but hard not to be a little excited by the below chart from just 7 days away...

    ECM0-168.GIF?27-12

    probably not even cold enough for snow. Would be similar to what we had in early February with graupel showers and probably rain/sleet/snow mix showers.


  • Options
    #3587
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Hmmm... well what is cold enough for snow in your mind? -20c 850hPa?


  • Options
    #3588
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Time to bury this winter in as deep and secure a grave as is possible, but not before ramming a stake though its grotesque heart lest it get any notions of rising again by the dark of the moon.

    New Moon



  • Options
    #3589
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Hmmm... well what is cold enough for snow in your mind? -20c 850hPa?

    in order to avoid transitional hill snow I like to see a minimum of -10 uppers along with decent instability. It can snow at -5 to -8 but risk too much modification from the sea and it can be marginal particularly along coastal counties depending on the conditions. I like to see -10 uppers as a minimum throughout the country when it comes to easterlies or northerlies to be on the safe side. Unlikely we will see such widespread cold uppers till next winter as this winter is now basically over.


  • Options
    #3590
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Hmmm I can’t see rain with -8c 850hPa’s from a Continental source.


  • Options
    #3591
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Hmmm I can’t see rain with -8c 850hPa’s from a Continental source.

    You forget that surface temperatures are beginning to warm from this point onwards. Upper air temps will need to be cooler than they might have to be in Dec & Jan and even the early part of Feb.

    New Moon



  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #3592
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The dry bulb temperature is not the determining factor in terms of precipitation type. That would be the Wet Bulb Temperature (the temperature of the air surrounding the snow flakes), as long as there is a shallow layer of warm air (no higher than 8c) and the wet bulb is subzero throughout the air column, snow will fall.

    Also remember that the air unaffected by radiative heating or the air above the Planetary Boundary Layer will stay at a uniform temperature throughout the day, so despite warming at the surface in any showers this can be brought down to the surface.


  • Options
    #3593
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The dry bulb temperature is not the determining factor in terms of precipitation type. That would be the Wet Bulb Temperature (the temperature of the air surrounding the snow flakes), as long as there is a shallow layer of warm air (no higher than 8c) and the wet bulb is subzero throughout the air column, snow will fall.

    Also remember that the air unaffected by radiative heating or the air above the Planetary Boundary Layer will stay at a uniform temperature throughout the day, so despite warming at the surface in any showers this can be brought down to the surface.
    Are you talking about evaporative cooling from heavy showers? Also what about the cooler sea temperatures at this time of year?


  • Options
    #3594
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I am saying that precipitation type below 8c temp is primarily determined by the air columns’ wet bulb temperature, as this is the temperature of the air around the snowflake as it evaporates.

    What I am also saying is that the influence of radiative heating does not affect the temperature of the air 300-400 metres above the surface. Meaning that there will be a shallow layer of warm air with a very steep lapse rate, this warm air can quickly be swept out of the way in any downdrafts or heavy precipitation.

    I wouldn’t necessarily say that there would be evaporative cooling in this situation, more that the cold air is brought to the surface through downdrafts. And this is certainly possible. I have seen snow at 6-8c in April before.

    So if we get 850hPa of -8c next week I do expect to see snow in any showers; particularly at night. We are definitely not too late for snow, it can snow in May.


  • Options
    #3595
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    ECM still very interesting for next weekend imho but I think I'm on my own in thinking this!


  • Options
    #3596
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I am saying that precipitation type below 8c temp is primarily determined by the air columns’ wet bulb temperature, as this is the temperature of the air around the snowflake as it evaporates.

    What I am also saying is that the influence of radiative heating does not affect the temperature of the air 300-400 metres above the surface. Meaning that there will be a shallow layer of warm air with a very steep lapse rate, this warm air can quickly be swept out of the way in any downdrafts or heavy precipitation.

    I wouldn’t necessarily say that there would be evaporative cooling in this situation, more that the cold air is brought to the surface through downdrafts. And this is certainly possible. I have seen snow at 6-8c in April before.

    So if we get 850hPa of -8c next week I do expect to see snow in any showers; particularly at night. We are definitely not too late for snow, it can snow in May.

    Low ground near or adjacent to much higher ground can 'borrow' the weather from the higher up ground
    A good example of this that calibos and many south Dubs will be familiar with in marginal winter weather is the stretch of the N11 adjacent to the sugarloaf south to just beyond kilpedar in North Wicklow
    There are probably many examples in Donegal and Derry
    I'm in one if the flow is off my adjacent mountains to my west or North


  • Options
    #3597
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Under the influence of HP it would seem and trending colder and haven't seen rainfall accumulation charts as dry as that in an age.

    Some widespread sharp frosts towards next weekend into the following week on the latest ECM charts, GFS not as cold but looking like a colder trend also.



    JIgyIO5.gif


    anim_dps8.gif


    IiNGsvg.png


  • Options
    #3598
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Unfortunately it is time to close this thread for another year. FI charts beyond 120 hours can be discussed in the Spring long range Fantasy Island thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058164376


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement