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What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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  • Options
    #3962
    Tony EH
    Registered Users Posts: 18,910 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Tell me how wrote: »
    The Republican Party have already made their decision.
    Kevin McCarthy went to visit Trump in Mar-A-Lago 2 weeks after he left office.
    Lindsey Graham said that they cannot move forward without him.
    Niki Halley said that she will not run against him in 2024.
    Republican State committees went after those who voted to impeach him like dogs.
    Various influential Republican commentators are still referring to him as 'The President'.

    They see Trump as their only path to the White House in 2024 and I expect they are confident this time he'd get 2 terms and they'd probably put Halley in their as a VP candidate to appeal to minorities and women and let her have a go after that.

    Any Democrats or (Democrat leaning watchers) who think the GOP still don't know what to do with him need to open their eyes and realise what is going on.

    I wouldn't be so sure that anything is actually solidified just yet.


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    #3963
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Tell me how wrote: »
    The Republican Party have already made their decision.
    Kevin McCarthy went to visit Trump in Mar-A-Lago 2 weeks after he left office.
    Lindsey Graham said that they cannot move forward without him.
    Niki Halley said that she will not run against him in 2024.
    Republican State committees went after those who voted to impeach him like dogs.
    Various influential Republican commentators are still referring to him as 'The President'.

    They see Trump as their only path to the White House in 2024 and I expect they are confident this time he'd get 2 terms and they'd probably put Halley in their as a VP candidate to appeal to minorities and women and let her have a go after that.

    Any Democrats or (Democrat leaning watchers) who think the GOP still don't know what to do with him need to open their eyes and realise what is going on.

    Yes and No.

    They have painted themselves into a corner with him , they are stuck with him now whether they like it or not (and the truth is most absolutely do not)

    He has complete control over probably a 3rd of their voter base , people who will simply sit out the Election if he's not there , especially if he was to be kicked out by the GOP.

    So , if they try now to cut him loose , they get absolutely cleaned out in 2022 across the board and they know it.

    On the other hand , they also know that he is absolute poison to probably 55-60% of the overall voting population so his chances of actually winning in 2024 are beyond slim.

    They should be absolutely zero , but the utter abomination that is the Electoral College gives him a punchers chance as they say.

    The GOP just need to block, deny and gerrymander a few hundred thousand voters across a half dozen States or so and they could manage to re-install the single most unpopular US President in History.

    And if you look at the draft legislation floating around GOP controlled State Houses across the US , that is exactly what they are trying to do.


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    #3964
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    The GOP just need to block, deny and gerrymander a few hundred thousand voters across a half dozen States or so and they could manage to re-install the single most unpopular US President in History.

    I can't really agree that Trump is the most unpopular US president in history. If he were, the course of the Republican party would be simple. On the one hand, more people voted for the other guy than in any previous election, but on the other hand Trump got 10 million more votes than in 2016 making his number of votes the second highest of all time. He still beats out Jimmy Carter 1980 in terms of raw votes, margin, and states carried.

    So he's unpopular with a majority of voters, but highly popular with enough others to make him impossible to jettison.


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    #3965
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    briany wrote: »
    I can't really agree that Trump is the most unpopular US president in history. If he were, the course of the Republican party would be simple. On the one hand, more people voted for the other guy than in any previous election, but on the other hand Trump got 10 million more votes than in 2016 making his number of votes the second highest of all time. He still beats out Jimmy Carter 1980 in terms of raw votes, margin, and states carried.

    So he's unpopular with a majority of voters, but highly popular with enough others to make him impossible to jettison.

    He is the only President to never break 50% popularity since polling began, so he is by any measure consistently the least popular ever.

    He does however have a rabid hard core of support that will support him no matter what he does.

    It's that acolyte core that the GOP are terrified of.

    They are maybe 25/30% of the GOP vote. If they decided to sit out the next Election or to primary incumbents to replace them with Marjorie Taylor Greene clones, the GOP are toast.


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    #3966
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    He is the only President to never break 50% popularity since polling began, so he is by any measure consistently the least popular ever.

    He does however have a rabid hard core of support that will support him no matter what he does.

    It's that acolyte core that the GOP are terrified of.

    They are maybe 25/30% of the GOP vote. If they decided to sit out the next Election or to primary incumbents to replace them with Marjorie Taylor Greene clones, the GOP are toast.

    I thought we learned the lesson with Trump and opinion polls the previous time. Again in 2020, he outperformed the opinion polls in several states that suggested Biden would easily win those states where it ended up being very close. It's been hard over the two elections for pollsters to accurately gauge Trump's real support. By the measure which ultimately counts, ie the election itself, no he's not the most unpopular president ever.


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    #3967
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1394836046911660033?s=19

    Still not putting money on that this will be enough to remove him from politics, but at least its moving in right direction.


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    #3968
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,639 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Tell me how wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1394836046911660033?s=19

    Still not putting money on that this will be enough to remove him from politics, but at least its moving in right direction.

    The victimhood rallies begin in June. Lots of fundraising, lots of gaslighting, lots of media buzz to make jury selection arduous, etc. etc. all part of the playbook.


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    #3969
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 18,976 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1394826489833549828?s=19

    He forgot to say they call him sir first.

    Does anyone believe this nonsense?


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    #3970
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,639 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    everlast75 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1394826489833549828?s=19

    He forgot to say they call him sir first.

    Does anyone believe this nonsense?

    Actually that wouldn't surprise me at all. Some people are absolutely starstruck for the Trumps.


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    #3971
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    Some republicans are counting on his being convicted ...they will support him until then....after conviction he can't run for president ..but he will still remain a political force ....or at least a grifter

    If he is not convicted he will run for president again ..get the gop nomination ..then who knows maybe america will be silly enough to vote him in again


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    #3972
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 18,976 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Overheal wrote: »
    Actually that wouldn't surprise me at all. Some people are absolutely starstruck for the Trumps.

    Eric can't even get a hug from Donald, nevermind a stranger.

    C'mon, it's the type of exagerated nonsense his dad spouted for years.


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    #3973
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 18,976 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    More wilful arseholery from the Reps.

    I'm imagining how much these lot need a slap across the back of the head and being told to cop on

    https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1394752152531308550?s=19


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    #3974
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    everlast75 wrote: »
    Eric can't even get a hug from Donald, nevermind a stranger.

    C'mon, it's the type of exagerated nonsense his dad spouted for years.
    The story might not be true. But his voters are still loyal. Trump controls the GOP now.


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    #3975
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 18,976 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Tell me how wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1394836046911660033?s=19

    Still not putting money on that this will be enough to remove him from politics, but at least its moving in right direction.

    Yeah - mixed feelings about this tbh

    1) James campaigned on going after trump. This always irked me

    2) announcing a state criminal investigations means they can't be subject to a pardon

    3) why would trump fight the release of taxes unless there was a there there

    4) taxes did get capone

    5) the CFO was cooperating, so my guess is that he isn't the target

    6) criminal charges against the org will be extremely damaging to the brand (it has already suffered with the Trump stink, losing contacts etc)

    7) criminal charges means proof of intent, beyond a reasonable doubt, so she must be confident she has the goods

    Edit

    8) I've been disappointed before


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    #3976
    francois
    Registered Users Posts: 3,377 ✭✭✭francois


    So much winning
    https://t.co/YpFZRdG8Di?amp=1


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    #3977
    francois
    Registered Users Posts: 3,377 ✭✭✭francois


    Closing in...

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/19/new-york-investigation-into-trump-organization-now-criminal-says-attorney-general?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


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    #3978
    Cody montana
    Registered Users Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    ILoveYourVibes wrote: »
    The story might not be true. But his voters are still loyal. Trump controls the GOP now.

    He lost the house, senate and presidency in 2 years.
    And ended with an insurrection.

    Not a great association.
    I love it.


  • Options
    #3979
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    briany wrote: »
    I thought we learned the lesson with Trump and opinion polls the previous time. Again in 2020, he outperformed the opinion polls in several states that suggested Biden would easily win those states where it ended up being very close. It's been hard over the two elections for pollsters to accurately gauge Trump's real support. By the measure which ultimately counts, ie the election itself, no he's not the most unpopular president ever.


    As I said , the utterly bizarre Electoral process gives him a shot - The inherent bias in it give a GOP candidate a 3-5% head start in that they can lose the Popular vote by that much and still have a better than evens chance of actually winning.

    I'm talking about popularity/favourability , not elections.

    He lost the popular vote twice , the second time by a significant margin and under his watch the GOP lost the House , the Senate and the Presidency.

    Every politician has peaks and troughs in popularity but when you look at it , not Trump.

    Every other POTUS had peaks up in the 60%+ range and most also dipped right down into the 30's or worse , but Trump just rumbled along in a very tight range in the low to mid 40's.

    There was nothing he could do to shake his core and more importantly there was nothing he did that made anyone else like him.

    I'm not saying that he couldn't win in 2024 , the EC gives him a shot that his abilities and popularity prove that he doesn't deserve.

    But - in terms of the GOP Party mandarins , they do not like him and if they could get rid of him cleanly they would, but they recognise that they are stuck with him so they are going all in.

    He will be the death of the GOP one way or another.

    It's a problem entirely of their own making however.


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    #3980
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,148 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    ILoveYourVibes wrote: »
    Some republicans are counting on his being convicted ...they will support him until then....after conviction he can't run for president ..but he will still remain a political force ....or at least a grifter

    If he is not convicted he will run for president again ..get the gop nomination ..then who knows maybe america will be silly enough to vote him in again

    Not true. a criminal conviction is not a bar to him running again. he could be in prison and still run for the presidency.


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    #3981
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Not true. a criminal conviction is not a bar to him running again. he could be in prison and still run for the presidency.

    That would be fantastic.


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    #3982
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,148 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    That would be fantastic.

    admittedly it would make holding rallies difficult


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    #3983
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    admittedly it would make holding rallies difficult

    The optics would be amazing. I imagine he would still garner 25% of the vote.


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    #3984
    Penn
    Registered Users Posts: 33,226 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    The optics would be amazing. I imagine he would still garner 25% of the vote.

    "I'm the Law & Order President.... I know a lot about law and order, believe me...."


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    #3985
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Penn wrote: »
    "I'm the Law & Order President.... I know a lot about law and order, believe me...."

    From behind bars in a prison cell. I'd love it.


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    #3986
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 12,954 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    He's the leading candidate to secure the QGOP nomination. The party's rowed in behind him and will continue to do so. He's their best path to secure the white house, and millions are and will be spent backing him for the next 4 years.

    A shoo-in for the nomination; all the other nominees are cookie-cutter clones, same old names.

    I don't think he'd win reelection nor do I think it would be a landslide against him, like the last election the polls were pretty worthless due to the EC.

    Now, if there's some truly radical realignment of districts and reduction/prevention of vote blocking and gerrymandering, it'd be a bigger loss for Trump, but I doubt it. Lest we forget, the QGOP made gains in the house in the 2020 election, Biden's very popular still and doing an effective job.

    But Trump gets more media coverage it seems (or at least, more strident media coverage which is good enough for his core.) And if Biden isn't the Democratic nominee, that's very scary to consider for the Democrats. I'd love to see Harris run again, but the racism and misogyny endemic to the US on all sides would be a huge problem.


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    #3987
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 14,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Not true. a criminal conviction is not a bar to him running again. he could be in prison and still run for the presidency.
    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    admittedly it would make holding rallies difficult

    There have been several stories in recent days about the possibility of warrants being issued by New York for Trump but Florida refusing to honour them.

    So you could have the bizarre scenario where he's running for Office, but can't leave Florida for fear of getting arrested.

    All totally unlikely and beyond improbable , but the fact that this is even a topic for discussion shows how utterly broken US democracy is.


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    #3988
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,148 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    There have been several stories in recent days about the possibility of warrants being issued by New York for Trump but Florida refusing to honour them.

    So you could have the bizarre scenario where he's running for Office, but can't leave Florida for fear of getting arrested.

    All totally unlikely and beyond improbable , but the fact that this is even a topic for discussion shows how utterly broken US democracy is.

    Not Florida, Ron DeSantis in his role as governor. Opinion is mixed on the extent of his powers but he definitely delay any extradition.

    https://www.salon.com/2021/05/17/palm-beach-prosecutor-no-ron-desantis-cant-block-trumps-extradition-to-new-york/


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    #3989
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,639 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    The optics would be amazing. I imagine he would still garner 25% of the vote.

    Are you kidding? 40% at least. They would regard him like their own Navalny, a poor abused victim of the system etc.


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    #3990
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Overheal wrote: »
    Are you kidding? 40% at least. They would regard him like their own Navalny, a poor abused victim of the system etc.

    Couldn't see a Republican presidential candidate running for office from a jail cell getting 40%. But these are interesting times. I'm trying to think of all the things that Trump and Navalny have in common but my mind is a blank for some strange reason.


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    #3991
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 18,976 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Cody montana wrote: »
    He lost the house, senate and presidency in 2 years.
    And ended with an insurrection.

    Not a great association.
    I love it.

    put that loss in context too.

    Biden was vanilla - not an inspired choice for "the left" and a career politician which would put off a lot of folk, but he still won.

    Trump enlisted help from China, the Ukraine etc to try and dirty up biden/his son, Biden still won.

    The economy (on the face of it) was doing relatively well - Biden still won

    Fox, OAN, FB, YouTube, Twitter were all used to maximum potential - Biden still won

    Trump was in charge of the postal service, assisted by significant voter suppression - Biden still won.

    Trump put 3 SCOTUS judges in lifetime positions - Biden still won.


    Trump is not invincible. The GOP are being dragged along by him in the main. They don't have him by choice. They are being pulled significantly to the right and in 3 year's time, a LOT of mainstream Republicans will not go near him. He'll get the crazies, and heaven knows there are a lot of them in the U.S., but that won't be enough to beat a half decent Dem IMHO.


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