January 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2014 2:17pm

Update after 21 days (three weeks) ...

IMT now at 5.2 C

PRC at 126% after a somewhat drier week that averaged 86% of normal.

SUN about the same at 122% with the past week near 125%.

Any suggestions for Feb bonus question?

dacogawa · 22-01-2014 5:35pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Any suggestions for Feb bonus question?

Coldest place on Valentines day or warmest

?

Tae laidir · 22-01-2014 7:12pm

Bonus Q suggestion:
Predict the the Station with the Highest PRC as % of normal of any Met Éireann station.
10 Points for wettest guess.
8 Points for 2nd wettest guess.
6 Points for 3rd wettest guess.
5 Points
4 Points
Etc.

Melanoma · 22-01-2014 7:46pm

Predict the longest time without precipitation at any station.
Predict the longest period of precipitation.
predict the longest time without recorded sunshine.

pauldry · 22-01-2014 7:53pm

Melanoma wrote: »

Predict the longest time without precipitation at any station.
Predict the longest period of precipitation.
predict the longest time without recorded sunshine.

Longest time without rain in January in Sligo has been about 20 hours and I'm not joking

Feb bonus name a date snow will fall

Bonus for correct date
If numerous dates snowiest wins
Scoreback from date

If no snow 5 points for all

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2014 8:46pm

Thanks, I like all of those and will try to use them in different months if not this month.

I have to be careful to choose a question that won't generate answers in the period 1-4 of any given month as this creates scoring issues and what if something happens on the first before half the field show up to read the contest? So I would avoid snowfall date questions if I thought it might snow on the first, second or third for example. Same with windstorm questions, model output showing huge windstorms on the first or second would cause me to avoid that kind of bonus question.

Today I am carefully studying some instructions I got from our off-forum friend (the form guy, SB was his name) about how to edit the google form myself, so far he's been doing all that on my requests. I notice that there is a Feb form now ready to use, once I edit in the bonus questions. Hopefully this will be self-explanatory as I am not as familiar with google templates as let's say excel forms or yahoo e-mail. I blog through wordpress rather than google but I have a google e-mail address now from the work being done on the IWO facebook website.

By the way, if you didn't already know this, I post my boards forecasts over on facebook at Irish Weather Online, the site has become a mecca for weather photographers and there are some familiar "faces" over there too (I don't do much more than drop in once a day with my forecast and sometimes a few edited photo displays from the e-mail site).

Well then, all we really need now is some weather, we seem to have everything else a weather forum would need.

Okay, I think I have successfully done that to the form (ooooh) for Valentines' Day (aaaah). Go to post #1 of this thread, click on the link for entry to JAN and now you should see FEB, let me know if you see what I see (baby). Love is in the air. (something has to be cuz there's no wx).

dacogawa · 23-01-2014 2:12am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay, I think I have successfully done that to the form (ooooh) for Valentines' Day (aaaah). Go to post #1 of this thread, click on the link for entry to JAN and now you should see FEB, let me know if you see what I see (baby). Love is in the air. (something has to be cuz there's no wx).

Yes, February up there you old romantic

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2014 3:07am

After four weeks, with three days to go (I'm a bit late gathering this, through 28th ...)

IMT now up to 5.5 C

PRC at 153% after a wet week that averaged 237% of normal.

SUN has dimmed to 113% after a duller week (76%).

Not sure when the MS might start to include Malin Head and Knock in the sunshine, I have not been factoring them in but they appear quite regularly in the Ag Summaries now.

Also, probably can't fully score the contest until Monday 3rd Feb (evening) but I will post a provisional summary based on what I do have available, then correct it (hopefully not by much) when the official data appear.

The February contest is open for your entries.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2014 8:35pm

IMT finished on 5.4 C, look for the rest of the stats on Monday with scoring to follow.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 8:06pm

January final report:

IMT was 5.4 C

MAX 13.4 at Shannon on 5th

MIN --3.8 at Moorepark on 11th

PRC 158% of normal

SUN 115% of normal

Max wind gust 72 knots at Mace Head on 3rd

Scoring underway, check back after 8 p.m.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2014 8:54pm

Scoring for January 2014
____________________________________________________

Forecaster _____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Max gust (loc)

Confirmed values ______ 5.4_13.4_--3.8_158_115_72 Mac ____ TOTAL

Bsal __________________24 _ 15 _ 16 _ 10*_ 05 _ 4 0 ________ 74
omicron _______________19 _ 16 _ 13 _ 09*_ 03 _ 8 2 ________ 70
mickger844posts ________21 _ 15 _ 13 _ 10*_ 03 _ 7 0 ________ 69
rikand ________________ 17 _ 19 _ 13 _ 10*_ 03 _ 4 2 ________ 68
kindredspirit ___________ 17 _ 18 _ 11 _ 09*_ 05 _ 7 0 ________ 67
john mac ______________23 _ 17 _ 02 _ 09*_ 07 _ 7 2 ________ 67

Con Sensus ____________ 24 _ 16 _ 04 _ 09*_ 05 _ 6 0 ________ 64

traecy.1 _______________25 _ 14 _ 03 _ 09*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 63
M.T. Cranium___________ 21 _ 19 _ 03 _ 10*_ 08 _ 0 2 ________ 63
pauldry _______________ 21 _ 16 _ 00 _ 09*_ 07 _ 7 2 ________ 62
Jpmarn________________ 25 _ 14 _ 00 _ 06*_ 08 _ 6 2 ________ 61
dasa29________________ 20 _ 06 _ 18 _ 03*_ 07 _ 5 2 ________ 61
Joe Public______________ 20 _ 15 _ 09 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 60
jd____________________ 22 _ 14 _ 04 _ 10*_ 06 _ 4 0 ________ 60
nilhg __________________20 _ 00 _ 17 _ 11*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 60
waterways_____________ 23 _ 18 _ 00 _ 11*_ 03 _ 5 0 ________ 60
talkabout ______________ 25 _ 19 _ 00 _ 03*_ 05 _ 7 0 ________ 59
okla __________________ 22 _ 12 _ 06 _ 06*_ 05 _ 8 0 ________ 59
homolumo _____________ 20 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09*_ 03 _ 6 0 ________ 58
harps _________________ 22 _ 17 _ 02 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 57
danno_________________ 13 _ 17 _ 00 _ 09*_ 09 _ 6 0 ________ 54
DOCARCH _____________ 20 _ 15 _ 00 _ 07*_ 06 _ 6 0 ________ 54
Rameire_______________ 22 _ 11 _ 03 _ 01*_ 07 _ 8 2 ________ 54
dacogawa______________ 21 _ 06 _ 00 _ 12*_ 07 _ 4 2 ________ 52
200motels _____________ 24 _ 08 _ 00 _ 13*_ 02 _ 3 0 ________ 50
octo __________________ 09 _ 19 _ 02 _ 04*_ 08 _ 5 0 ________ 47
Tae laidir ______________ 19 _ 02 _ 00 _ 09*_ 09 _ 5 2 ________ 46
delw __________________ 20 _ 06 _ 02 _ 06*_ 05 _ 5 0 ________ 44
seafields ___ (-10%) ____ 14 _ 19 _ 05 _ 07*_ 00 _ 5 0 __ 50-10=40
melanoma _____________ 20 _ 03 _ 00 _ 03*_ 08 _ 5 0 ________ 39

______________________________________________

* Rainfall (PRC) scores needed a boost from the minimum progression rule.

In general, January was a higher than normal scoring bonanza although nobody went super high, congrats to Bsal, omicron and mickger844posts for leading the pack, many scores into the 60s right behind them.

January 2014 Boards forecast contest

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