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2011 forecast contest annual scoring table

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final 2011 Contest Results
    ________________________________


    Rank ... Forecaster ....... J ... F ... M ... A ... M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D .... Tot ... Avg .... Comp (10mo)

    1 ... nilhg ................. 41 . 55 . 54 . 57 . 63 . 35 . 68 . 41 . 44 . 53 . 46 . 79 .. 636 (1) .. 53.0 (1) ... 560
    2 ... kindredspirit ....... 65 . 21 . 51 . 50 . 46 . 33 . 60 . 41 . 50 . 55 . 46 . 65 .. 583 (3) .. 48.6 (4) ... 529
    3 ... Jerry Seinfeld ..... 59 . 30 . 57 . 32 . 43 . 24 . 53 . 65 . 53 . 44 . 41 . 74 .. 575 (4) .. 47.9 (6) ... 521
    4 ... mickger844posts . 51 . 41 . 48 . 78 . 53 . 28 . 57 . 40 . 41 . 40 . 41 . 66 .. 584 (2) .. 48.7 (3) ... 516
    4 ... Pauldry ............. 37 . 47 . 47 . 20 . 69 . 12 . 59 . 65 . 35 . 45 . 47 . 65 .. 548 (9) .. 45.7 (13) .. 516
    6 ... lumi .................. 40 . 26 . 43 . 43 . 53 . 47 . 54 . 60 . 42 . 52 . 37 . 78 .. 575 (4) .. 47.9 (9) .. 512
    6 ... DeepEasterly ...... 42 . 52 . 32 . 25 . 68 . 49 . 36 . 60 . 51 . 52 . 49 . 53 .. 569 (6) .. 47.4 (7) ... 512
    6 ... DOCARCH .......... 31 . 25 . 52 . 43 . 49 . 51 . 41 . 41 . 50 . 61 . 44 . 80 .. 568 (7) .. 47.3 (8) .. 512
    9 ... John mac .......... 44 . 40 . 27 . 14 . 51 . 50 . 66 . 46 . 51 . 43 . 47 . 64 .. 543 (11) .. 45.3 (16) .. 502
    10 .. Su Campu ......... 39 . 29 . 61 . 40 . 41 . 57 . 51 . 33 . 59 . 50 . 48 . 49 .. 557 (8) ... 46.4 (11) ... 495
    11 .. Sponge Bob ...... 23 . 36 . 41 . 46 . 41 . 31 . 61 . 66 . 38 . 51 . 46 . 65 .. 545 (10) .. 45.4 (15) .. 491
    12 .. Strasser ........... 47 . 51 . 35 . 29 . -- . 15 . 41 . 60 . 42 . 40 . 45 . 88 .. 503 (xx) .. 45.7 (13) .. 488


    (13) .. Con Sensus ..... 42 . 21 . 44 . 32 . 52 . 27 . 53 . 50 . 43 . 45 . 44 . 83 .. 536 (13) .. 44.7(17) .. 488

    13 .. M.T. Cranium ..... 37 . 16 . 66 . 76 . 45 . 30 . 52 . 52 . 48 . 25 . 26 . 51 .. 524 (14) .. 43.7 (19) .. 483
    14 .. Tae laidir .......... 52 . 25 . 32 . 17 . 61 . 15 . 65 . 64 . 34 . 24 . 41 . 84 .. 514 (15) .. 42.8 (20) .. 482
    15 .. waterways ....... 37 . 39 . 57 . 38 . 49 . 47 . 74 . 48 . 36 . 32 . 25 . 55 .. 537 (12) ... 44.8 (17) .. 480
    16 .. dacogawa ........ 38 . 24 . 57 . 40 . 59 . 45 . 31 . 34 . 50 . 49 . 44 . 61 .. 532 (13) .. 44.3 (18) .. 477
    17 .. thetonynator .... 41 . 12 . 40 . 55 . 61 . 22 . 42 . 54 . 41 . 32 . 43 . 66 .. 509 (16) .. 42.4 (21) .. 475
    18 .. MiNdGaM3 ......... -- . -- . 55 . 53 . 40 . 23 . 42 . 59 . 55 . 29 . 56 . 51 .. 463 (xx) .. 46.3 (12) .. 463
    19 .. 200motels ........ 58 . 33 . 57 . 46 . 59 . 22 . 21 . 42 . 30 . 43 . 34 . 48 .. 493 (18) .. 41.1 (25) .. 450
    19 .. Harps ............. 46 . 27 . 40 . 07 . 58 . 35 . 51 . 33 . 42 . 39 . 25 . 79 .. 482 (21) .. 40.2 (28) .. 450
    21 .. talkabout ........ 40 . 35 . 53 . 24 . 54 . 42 . 43 . 43 . 32 . 33 . 34 . 72 .. 505 (17) .. 42.1 (22) .. 449
    22 .. hellboy99 ........ 29 . 21 . 59 . 28 . 52 . 37 . 53 . 41 . 47 . 47 . 24 . 49 .. 487 (19) .. 40.6 (26) .. 442
    23 .. Danno ............. 32 . 31 . 29 . 18 . 39 . 04 . 46 . 49 . 50 . 47 . 61 . 57.. 463 (27) .. 38.6 (32) .. 441
    24 .. fizzycyst ......... 27 . 20 . 34 . 62 . 49 . 36 . 59 . 41 . 32 . 23 . 53 . 47 .. 483 (20) .. 40.3 (27) .. 440
    25 .. dasa29 ............ 20 . 26 . 50 . 20 . 63 . 35 . 41 . 55 . 42 . 45 . 41 . 41 .. 479 (23) .. 39.9 (30) .. 439
    26 .. jambofc ........... 42 . 47 . -- . 25 . 48 . 21 . 57 . 34 . 35 . 34 . 51 . 64 .. 458 (xx) .. 41.6 (23) .. 437
    27 .. 4sheets ............ 24 . -- . 44 . 26 . 39 . 28 . 67 . 42 . 44 . 40 . 54 . 50.. 458 (xx) .. 41.5 (24) .. 434
    28 .. rameire ............ 30 . 27 . 39 . 38 . 32 . 31 . 62 . 53 . 44 . 28 . 25 . 72 .. 481 (22) .. 40.1 (29) .. 429
    28 .. homolumo ......... 31 . 18 . 45 . 20 . 59 . 29 . 53 . 44 . 39 . 38 . 26 . 65 .. 467 (24) .. 38.9 (31) .. 429
    30 .. Joe Public ......... 33 . 28 . 49 . 66 . 40 . 19 . 48 . 19 . 48 . 23 . 41 . 47 .. 461 (25) .. 38.4 (33) .. 423
    31 .. jd ................... 23 . 13 . 41 . 28 . 55 . 17 . 48 . 33 . 39 . 54 . 40 . 50 .. 441 (26) .. 36.7 (34) .. 411
    32 .. SeaFields.......... 51 . 26 . 24 . 26 . 53 . 12 . 50 . 51 . 21 . 24 . 19 . 56 .. 413 (27) .. 34.4 (40) .. 382
    33 .. Rebelbrowser .... 21 . 34 . 50 . 30 . 53 . 17 . 45 . 29 . -- . 21 . 43 . 47 .. 390 (xx) .. 35.5 (37) .. 373
    34 .. H2UMrsRobinson. 46 . 40 . 16 . 16 . -- . 37 . 20 . 26 . 55 . 52 . 27 . 53 .. 388 (xx) .. 35.3 (38) .. 372
    35 .. nacho libre ....... 43 . 11 . 28 . 21 . 29 . 32 . 49 . -- . 36 . -- . 40 . 71 .. 360 (xx) .. 36.0 (36) .. 360
    36 .. redsunset ........ 24 . 10 . 22 . 34 . 51 . 15 . 28 . 29 . 47 . 64 . 36 . -- .. 360 (xx) .. 32.7 (42) .. 350
    37 .. Snowstreams .... -- . 21 . -- . 44 . 38 . 17 . 41 . 44 . 40 . 27 . 17 . 58 .. 347 (xx) .. 34.7 (39) .. 347

    Unranked for annual contest, to show rank for average
    _______________________________________________


    xx ....ch750536........... -- . -- . -- . -- .. 45 . 49 . 38 . 69 . 32 . -- . -- . -- .. 233 .......... 46.6 (10)
    xx ... NIALL_D............. -- .. 24 . 36 . -- . -- . -- . 51 . -- . 36 . 38 . 18 . 53 .. 256 ......... 36.6 (34)
    xx ... okla ................. -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- .. 56 . 23 . 45 . 45 . 50 . 71 .. 290 .......... 48.3 (5)
    xx .. TheInquisitor .... 33 . 27 . 16 . 18 . 53 . 50 . 36 . 40 . 31 . -- . -- . -- .. 304 ....... 33.8 (41)
    xx .. Traecy1 ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 60 . 53 . 50 . 35 . 67 .. 265 ........ 53.0 (2)

    _______________________________________________

    Congratulations to "nilhg" who led both the best-10-of-12 (Boards.ie Award) and the total for 12 (M.T. Cranium Award) as well as finishing first on average at 53.0% including those who entered too few to qualify otherwise. Traecy1 who joined in August matched that average and was ranked second in that category. Also notable was nilhg's excellent finish in December with 78 points. Nilhg replaces our 2009-2010 winner, Danno, who began to return to form in the autumn.

    Kindredspirit and Jerry Seinfeld captured second and third in the Boards.ie Award, while it was Mickger844posts then KS for second and third in the MTC (total points) race.

    After Nilhg and Traecy1, the third highest average of 48.7 belongs to Mick and honourable mentions overall go to Pauldry, lumi, DeepEasterly and DOCARCH. I should mention that Mindgame (close enough) did very well to stay in the race despite having no "throw-away" months from the start. Con Sensus (grrr) moved up quite a few spots with an 83 in December, passing about half a dozen of us. John mac, Su Campu, Sponge Bob and Strasser deserve credit for staying ahead of Con Sensus.

    Hope you all enjoyed the contests, it was good to see steady improvements in some newbies, and to those who entered later in the year and did quite well, notably Okla and traecy1, well done and good luck in 2012 when you'll have a chance to qualify. There are one or two recent regulars who I might add to this table later on. I must now rest on my laurels, sparse though they may be.


    (note on ranking -- I removed anyone without 12 entries from the MTC Award ranking and put in xx instead).

    Let me know if you spot any errors, bearing in mind that your total score at the end of each row, is the best 10 scores you had.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,100 ✭✭✭nilhg


    Final 2011 Contest Results
    ________________________________


    *******
    _______________________________________________

    Congratulations to "nilhg" who led both the best-10-of-12 (Boards.ie Award) and the total for 12 (M.T. Cranium Award) as well as finishing first on average at 53.0% including those who entered too few to qualify otherwise. Traecy1 who joined in August matched that average and was ranked second in that category. Also notable was nilhg's excellent finish in December with 78 points. Nilhg replaces our 2009-2010 winner, Danno, who began to return to form in the autumn.

    Kindredspirit and Jerry Seinfeld captured second and third in the Boards.ie Award, while it was Mickger844posts then KS for second and third in the MTC (total points) race.

    After Nilhg and Traecy1, the third highest average of 48.7 belongs to Mick and honourable mentions overall go to Pauldry, lumi, DeepEasterly and DOCARCH. I should mention that Mindgame (close enough) did very well to stay in the race despite having no "throw-away" months from the start. Con Sensus (grrr) moved up quite a few spots with an 83 in December, passing about half a dozen of us. John mac, Su Campu, Sponge Bob and Strasser deserve credit for staying ahead of Con Sensus.

    Hope you all enjoyed the contests, it was good to see steady improvements in some newbies, and to those who entered later in the year and did quite well, notably Okla and traecy1, well done and good luck in 2012 when you'll have a chance to qualify. There are one or two recent regulars who I might add to this table later on. I must now rest on my laurels, sparse though they may be.


    (note on ranking -- I removed anyone without 12 entries from the MTC Award ranking and put in xx instead).

    Let me know if you spot any errors, bearing in mind that your total score at the end of each row, is the best 10 scores you had.

    Thank you MT for your congratulations (and all the work you and the others involved put into the running of the competition) and well done to all who took part.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    nilhg wrote: »
    Thank you MT for your congratulations (and all the work you and the others involved put into the running of the competition) and well done to all who took part.

    Well done nilgh on your great win in all categories.
    Personally was happy to finish second,third and fourth in the respective competitions. An average run of scoring from August to November scuppered my chances.

    Of course thanks to MT for all his hard work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Thank you very much MT for all the work you have put in. Top marks.

    It's a very interesting competition and I imagine the number of people having a go at it will rise each year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I know one thing, the number of people having a go at me will keep going up every year, until ... well even then it will probably keep going up for a while because good news travels slow.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    A resounding victory nilhg - well done!!

    And of course many thanks to M.T.C for all of the hard work, time & number-crunching that goes in to making this great competition :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 99 ✭✭traecy1


    Thanks very much MT Cranium for the excellent work you put into this competition. I only joined boards.ie last summer but it was the weather forum that was my main reason for joining. It's a brilliant source of information on the weather for amateurs like myself.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Well done nilhg on a clear victory, class showed over the course of the year with great consistency a few dominating victories! Not overly happy with my own score so shall be looking for a big improvement this year, hopefully to beat the consensus at least

    And thanks to MT of course, much appreciated for what must be quite a time consuming endeavour ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Brilliantly done Nilhg and sadly the only one who was close to catching you by September (MT) deliberately punted in some forecasts that were mainly designed to rule himself out.

    Nobody would mind MT judging the competition and then winning it outright, same in 2012. So we will judge him on his performance from January to September. :)

    Thanks are also due to Tonyator? for managing spreadsheets to make the exercise manageable as I recall.

    I will produce a special google spreadsheet for Feb onwards to automate some repetitive and tedious tasks if Tonyator or MT send me a gmail address by PM.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, I like your interpretation of my last three forecasts although it's not exactly true. As to the tables, the monthly ones will stay the way they are as it's actually less work and it prevents errors (everything is copied into the table rather than transcribed). The annual scoring business could use some easier visuals and I think I'll just adapt the winter forecast contest table that I have available (what you see is not what I see in edit). As per the last two years, I will probably start an annual scoring thread after March or so, let the first few months just happen without an annual thread.

    If any mod happens to read this, can you please un-sticky the December contest and this 2011 annual thread? They are all finished for now and can sink back into the sediment with all the other old contests.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    (everything is copied into the table rather than transcribed).
    Think direct entry by competitors themselves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I may hand off the contest for 2013 so if somebody wants to do things that way, would be interesting. For now, I don't find the tables of entries very much work, all I have to do is block copy the pages and fiddle with the rows a bit, most people help me out with the template so that's not much work.

    What I should do to speed it up is to create a stub every 10-15 entries because as you may know, when you enter a "reply to thread" you get a simplified form of the past 15 posts, which eliminates most of that copy that gets in my way when I block copy page 1 and page 2 etc.

    This past time around, I made the mistake of pressing reply after block copying the remnant of page three, and lost my original work. First time I've done that, one other time I lost work from a power failure. You would think it would be preserved in your "history" but I never found it there. Anyway, my life is currently not so filled with work or activity that I need to be super-efficient any more, although I'm not sitting around wondering what to do either, so I guess I have about the right number of projects on the go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    Well done to everyone who took part, and congrats to the winner, and a big thanks to MT for doing a fantastic job. Well done.


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