Pro14 Season 2019-2020

awec · 22-07-2019 9:45am

Neil3030 wrote: »

Fans might. The IRFU wouldn't.

If the Welsh teams leave the Pro14 the Pro14 is as dead as the dodo, and the IRFU would literally sell their grannies to get into this new hypothetical Anglo-Welsh league.

Former Former · 22-07-2019 10:03am

Eod100 wrote: »

So could be looking at a 20 team league if it's all current 12 Premiership teams and 4 provinces and 4 regions? Potentially 2 conferences of 10? Think there is a novelty of Welsh teams playing English teams in Champions and Challenge Cup with higher attendances, but wonder how sustainable those attendances would be week in week out.

The short answer is, a lot more sustainable than the crowds the Welsh teams currently get. There are three English clubs within an hour's drive of the Welsh clubs and most of the others would be within two or three hours. The Welsh would be mad not to try for that and the Irish would do exactly the same in their shoes.

But that won't matter. The big prize here is being able to sell TV, marketing and sponsorship on an all-UK (or all UK and Ireland) basis. The English clubs would only allow the Celts in if there's a big payback for them and CVC would have to come up with some big numbers to convince them.

I can't see it happening within two years but money generally talks in these things.

Eod100 · 22-07-2019 10:45am

Former Former wrote: »

The short answer is, a lot more sustainable than the crowds the Welsh teams currently get. There are three English clubs within an hour's drive of the Welsh clubs and most of the others would be within two or three hours. The Welsh would be mad not to try for that and the Irish would do exactly the same in their shoes.
.

I get about the clubs being near Wales could bring away support and Welsh fans may travel down but not sure about the ones further away. I know Blues v Saracens was sold out Saracens v Blues was Saracens lowest attended game in pool stage. Just think the novelty might go out within a few seasons. Lot of grass is greener stuff.

Exclamation Marc · 22-07-2019 11:01am

Eod100 wrote: »

I get about the clubs being near Wales could bring away support and Welsh fans nay travel down bit but not sure about the ones furthermore away. I know Blues v Saracens was sold out Saracens v Blues was Saracens lowest attended game in pool stage. Just think the novelty might go out within a few seasons. Lot of grass is greener stuff.

Agree completely. Munster v Saracens in the ECPR was barely attended by Sarries fans and that was a knockout European game not hugely far from their home. If that doesn't tempt them, a rainy night for a league game in Cardiff certainly won't.

Former Former · 22-07-2019 11:16am

Eod100 wrote: »

I get about the clubs being near Wales could bring away support and Welsh fans may travel down but not sure about the ones further away. I know Blues v Saracens was sold out Saracens v Blues was Saracens lowest attended game in pool stage. Just think the novelty might go out within a few seasons. Lot of grass is greener stuff.

You might not have a packed house every week but you would still get a lot more travelling fans from Leicester or Northampton than you would from Zebre, Kings or Connacht. And it's a much more appealing away trip for the Welsh fans to follow their team a couple of hours up the motorway than having to fly to Ireland/Italy/wherever.

But again, it's not about the numbers of people who turn up. It's about how much cash CVC can drum up.

jacothelad · 22-07-2019 12:02pm

Eod100 wrote: »

I get about the clubs being near Wales could bring away support and Welsh fans may travel down but not sure about the ones further away. I know Blues v Saracens was sold out Saracens v Blues was Saracens lowest attended game in pool stage. Just think the novelty might go out within a few seasons. Lot of grass is greener stuff.

Llanelli or Swansea to each way.

Exeter 160 miles 3 hours.
Glos. 115 m 2 hours.
Sale 180 m 4 hours.
Bristol 93 m 2 hours.
Bath. 105m 2 hours.
Leices. and Saints are both about 200 miles and 3 and a half hours each way.
London is 4 hours away.
Coventry is over 3 hours.

VANG1 · 22-07-2019 12:12pm

The Welsh teams would want to up their game. Not surprising fans don’t turn up to watch them perform so badly in the pro 14. The fans would get sick of seeing them hammered in an even more competitive league.

Neil3030 · 22-07-2019 12:33pm

The issue with Welsh support was never really about logistics. The Welsh will more readily drive up the motorway than take a flight, that's obviously true, but only where (i) there's no Premier League soccer on at the same time and (ii) they have a prayer of beating the opposition. I can't see both those moons aligning all that often. There'd probably be a net increase in fans coming the other way though, certainly from the likes of Bristol, Bath and Exeter.

On the IRFU, their primary value in the Pro14 is in complete control of the international player welfare and development. The present model of mostly low intensity league games, dotted with occasional high intensity derbies/knockout games, is close to perfect for them in this regard. Unless adding the Welsh to the Premiership suddenly gives British teams the financial clout to pry away all our top players (and I really don't see how that might happen), I can see the IRFU remaining content with a weakened Pro10 or Pro-whatever.

slingerz · 22-07-2019 1:01pm

what makes it inevitable is that fact that CVC are looking to invest in the PRO14 having already acquired a share in the premiership. What happens with the italians/south africians however?

would be the death knell for the champions cup too though

AdamD · 22-07-2019 1:28pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

The issue with Welsh support was never really about logistics. The Welsh will more readily drive up the motorway than take a flight, that's obviously true, but only where (i) there's no Premier League soccer on at the same time and (ii) they have a prayer of beating the opposition. I can't see both those moons aligning all that often. There'd probably be a net increase in fans coming the other way though, certainly from the likes of Bristol, Bath and Exeter.

On the IRFU, their primary value in the Pro14 is in complete control of the international player welfare and development. The present model of mostly low intensity league games, dotted with occasional high intensity derbies/knockout games, is close to perfect for them in this regard. Unless adding the Welsh to the Premiership suddenly gives British teams the financial clout to pry away all our top players (and I really don't see how that might happen), I can see the IRFU remaining content with a weakened Pro10 or Pro-whatever.

Losing the Welsh might not strengthen the English clubs financials, but they'd definitely hurt the Pro 14s, which in turn would make it more difficult for the IRFU to keep their players.

Ultimately the English won't want the Welsh anyways.

awec · 22-07-2019 1:36pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

The issue with Welsh support was never really about logistics. The Welsh will more readily drive up the motorway than take a flight, that's obviously true, but only where (i) there's no Premier League soccer on at the same time and (ii) they have a prayer of beating the opposition. I can't see both those moons aligning all that often. There'd probably be a net increase in fans coming the other way though, certainly from the likes of Bristol, Bath and Exeter.

On the IRFU, their primary value in the Pro14 is in complete control of the international player welfare and development. The present model of mostly low intensity league games, dotted with occasional high intensity derbies/knockout games, is close to perfect for them in this regard. Unless adding the Welsh to the Premiership suddenly gives British teams the financial clout to pry away all our top players (and I really don't see how that might happen), I can see the IRFU remaining content with a weakened Pro10 or Pro-whatever.

There would not be a weakened pro14 or whatever, it would not be financially viable without the Welsh.

Neil3030 · 22-07-2019 2:42pm

awec wrote: »

There would not be a weakened pro14 or whatever, it would not be financially viable without the Welsh.

Why?

Former Former · 22-07-2019 2:50pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Why?

It's barely viable now, no way could it continue without the Welsh.

The Lost Sheep · 22-07-2019 2:53pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Why?

because it's not extremely viable right now and taking the Welsh, their TV money, etc etc out of the equation would mean league couldnt work.

ClanofLams · 22-07-2019 2:55pm

Were it to happen it will include the Irish anyway. English would have no interest in changing their league for four average Welsh teams.

I don’t see the two division thing working - are Leicester etc gonna be content to suddenly being a second division club? A second division that will be significantly harder than the Championship also.

The alternative of twenty plus teams in conferences doesn’t seem very realistic either.

Neil3030 · 22-07-2019 3:02pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

because it's not extremely viable right now and taking the Welsh, their TV money, etc etc out of the equation would mean league couldnt work.

Is anyone basing this on actual figures? What actual revenue loss would the Pro14 be looking at if it lost the Welsh teams?

Eod100 · 22-07-2019 3:08pm

Does the proposal not include the provinces? Would be interesting to know mechanism for opting out of Pro14. Can a union just withdraw at any stage with certain notice or something?

OldRio · 22-07-2019 3:20pm

Simon Thomas has an article on the proposed deal. Check Wales online. I'm on my mobile so can't post a link.

razorblunt · 22-07-2019 3:21pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Is anyone basing this on actual figures? What actual revenue loss would the Pro14 be looking at if it lost the Welsh teams?

It's based on almost nothing. Just Simon Thomas doing his usual "playing English teams would be brilliant, woundln't it spiel" and then pretending he isn't shítting on the Pro 14 from a height when it restarts.

He didn't even bother to check if the Italians were tied in.

Eod100 · 22-07-2019 3:24pm

OldRio wrote: »

Simon Thomas has an article on the proposed deal. Check Wales online. I'm on my mobile so can't post a link.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/multi-million-pound-deal-could-16626191.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Squidgy Black · 22-07-2019 3:26pm

Eod100 wrote: »

Does the proposal not include the provinces? Would be interesting to know mechanism for opting out of Pro14. Can a union just withdraw at any stage with certain notice or something?

There is no actual proposal.

It's all hyperbole around the CVC deal for the Pro14, where it's reported it'll be £90 million for a 27% share.

From there, it's reports of a playoff between the winner of the Pro14, and the winner of the Premiership.

Which people are then coming to the conclusion of a British and Irish league using this as a stepping stone.

mike_cork · 22-07-2019 5:33pm

razorblunt wrote: »

It's based on almost nothing. Just Simon Thomas doing his usual "playing English teams would be brilliant, woundln't it spiel" and then pretending he isn't shítting on the Pro 14 from a height when it restarts.

Like much of his work....A lot of that Thomas article is if's and what if’s without any cold black and white facts (and contains his usual anti pro 14 undertones).
From a TV/CVC prospective who would you want to have on board this project? A passionately supported Irish province (take your pick of any of the 4) vs the likes of Leicester/Bath/wasps….Or Dragons? Ospreys?
This "British and Irish" league may or may not happen-But it certainly won’t happen within a 2 year timeline.

thomond2006 · 22-07-2019 6:30pm

I'd be happy enough in a B&I league, however IIRC the current Pro14 is set in stone for a number of seasons so I don't see a movement before then.

ClanofLams · 22-07-2019 10:30pm

Comprehensive piece on Rugbypass as to why an Anglo Welsh league makes no sense. It shouldn’t really be needed but the welsh delusion is so strong that seeing it written down in black and white might help somewhat. Though I see reality still isn’t hitting home for Simon Thomas so it might be all in vein.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/an-anglo-welsh-league-realistically-doesnt-hold-much-appeal-for-the-english-premiership

mike_cork · 22-07-2019 10:33pm

ClanofLams wrote: »

Comprehensive piece on Rugbypass as to why an Anglo Welsh league makes no sense. It shouldn’t really be needed but the welsh delusion is so strong that seeing it written down in black and white might help somewhat. Though I see reality still isn’t hitting home for Simon Thomas so it might be all in vein.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/an-anglo-welsh-league-realistically-doesnt-hold-much-appeal-for-the-english-premiership

Thanks for putting up the article.
This made me laugh:
"the Dragons also registered the same attendance for Timisoara Saracens as they did for Northampton Saints"

Former Former · 23-07-2019 12:17am

I don't know why people get so angry about this. It's all pie in the sky but you can't blame the Welsh for wanting something better.

The Pro14 is a fundamentally rubbish product. We Irish fans are fine with that because we are so dominant and it suits our wider needs perfectly. We don't love it for what it is, why should we expect the Welsh to?

The Welsh, on the other hand, are struggling badly on field and off field. If our situations were reversed and a better option was out there, no matter how unlikely, we'd be saying exactly the same.

Why the rage? Why do people take such delight in saying "they only have themselves to blame"?

Thrashssacre · 23-07-2019 12:19am

Former Former wrote: »

I don't know why people get so angry about this. It's all pie in the sky but you can't blame the Welsh for wanting something better.

The Pro14 is a fundamentally rubbish product. We Irish fans are fine with that because we are so dominant and it suits our wider needs perfectly. We don't love it for what it is.

The Welsh, on the other hand, are struggling badly on field and off field. If our situations were reversed and a better option was out there, no matter how unlikely, we'd be saying exactly the same.

Why the rage?

Probably for that exact reason, the current product suits us to the ground any large change like this will leave us with everything to lose and nothing much to gain.

errlloyd · 23-07-2019 12:19am

Agree with FF tbh. I guess some Welsh fans don't see the bigger picture of how the league aids their national team. But most Irish fans wouldn't see it either if roles were reversed.

Thrashssacre · 23-07-2019 12:21am

Former Former wrote: »

I don't know why people get so angry about this. It's all pie in the sky but you can't blame the Welsh for wanting something better.

The Pro14 is a fundamentally rubbish product. We Irish fans are fine with that because we are so dominant and it suits our wider needs perfectly. We don't love it for what it is.

The Welsh, on the other hand, are struggling badly on field and off field. If our situations were reversed and a better option was out there, no matter how unlikely, we'd be saying exactly the same.

Why the rage?

Probably for that exact reason, the current product suits us to the ground any large change like this will leave us with everything to lose and nothing much to gain.

ClanofLams · 23-07-2019 12:32am

Former Former wrote: »

I don't know why people get so angry about this. It's all pie in the sky but you can't blame the Welsh for wanting something better.

The Pro14 is a fundamentally rubbish product. We Irish fans are fine with that because we are so dominant and it suits our wider needs perfectly. We don't love it for what it is, why should we expect the Welsh to?

The Welsh, on the other hand, are struggling badly on field and off field. If our situations were reversed and a better option was out there, no matter how unlikely, we'd be saying exactly the same.

Why the rage? Why do people take such delight in saying "they only have themselves to blame"?

I don’t care about them wanting to play the English. But they constantly undermined the Pro14, behaving like children blaming it for all their problems and pushing conspiracy theories about the Irish having the refs in their pocket and other such nonsense.

Fundamentally rubbish is a harsh assessment, it definitely has flaws but it has good aspects too. There was few complaints coming from Wales during the days of the Ospreys being regular contenders and Cardiff in Heineken Cup semi finals.

Their problem (ironically given they love complaining about this aspect of the Irish model) stems from not having Union owned teams. Four independently owned teams are never going to be competitive, regardless of what league they play in, as was well pointed out in the article I linked to earlier.

Pro14 Season 2019-2020

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