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12-01-2019, 17:34   #1846
pad199207
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Still very much on the fence of any significant cold for Ireland this month. Trend is ofcourse for a cooler end to the month, but significant cold under serious doubt.

Really need to see the upgrades in the short to medium term.
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12-01-2019, 17:44   #1847
sdanseo
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Holy cow. That would make Emma look like a gentle breeze.
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12-01-2019, 17:53   #1848
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ECM showing a large area of LP coming off Greenland at +240 hrs on the Oz with a big push of cold air out in front of it , will be interesting to see if it goes the same way as the GFS ,the 12Z coming out soon.

Last edited by Meteorite58; 12-01-2019 at 18:00.
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12-01-2019, 18:04   #1849
Gonzo
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There is currently a great deal of uncertainty about what happens after next weekend.

The GFS Ensemble run up to January 27th for my hometown of Dunshaughlin in County Meath, shows general agreement of milder than average conditions lasting up to late Tuesday with very low amounts of rainfall.

For Wednesday the models show spikes in precipitation and a drop in overall temperature, but nothing terribly cold.

The models suggest temperatures returning back to normal values late Thursday and into Friday as well as early Saturday.

After that they mostly show a small to medium drop in temperature between 20th and 23rd of January, followed by great uncertainty after that.

From the 23rd to 27th of January the ensemble is showing wide variations in temperature outcomes, some colder outcomes but also several very mild outcomes that want to bring the mild Atlantic back.

The only thing that looks consistent from the middle of next week, is that unsettled conditions and precipitation will be dominant.
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12-01-2019, 18:08   #1850
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The GFS Para just produced an amazing run. Miles off in FI though.





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12-01-2019, 18:10   #1851
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The latest GFS(P) run is sheer amazement! If we got anywhere near what it's showing, we'd be buried for days, at least. Nice to look at though



And apologies, I just realised I posted this in the wrong thread. Should've been in the FI thread....my bad!
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12-01-2019, 18:11   #1852
pad199207
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What?
Only yesterday, we were all being invited over to your gaff for the start

@ Gonzo,Shur isn't that ALL FI
Point here being,tiny nuances in weather we can't guess on make big differences
Did I say that? lol
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12-01-2019, 18:24   #1853
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The latest GFS(P) run is sheer amazement! If we got anywhere near what it's showing, we'd be buried for days, at least. Nice to look at though



And apologies, I just realised I posted this in the wrong thread. Should've been in the FI thread....my bad!
30-40 cm for me, I'll take it, how much?



I am fully aware it's nonsense but nice to imagine
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12-01-2019, 18:27   #1854
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Pretty significant differences in the models at 96 hours

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12-01-2019, 18:43   #1855
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This chart from the ECM shows how the UK can be in the freezer while Ireland misses out, incase people are getting very hyped about reports on netweather and the likes. So just be weary about the forecasts you hear for UK cold.

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12-01-2019, 19:00   #1856
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Cork Airport's top 10 dullest months on record (not just December):

1. Dec 1991; 17.9 hrs
2. Dec 1977; 19.8 hrs
3. Dec 1987; 20.5 hrs
4. Feb 1985; 21.9 hrs
5. Nov 1983; 23.9 hrs
6. Jan 1992; 24.0 hrs
7. Dec 2015; 24.3 hrs
8. Nov 1968; 25.3 hrs
9. Jan 1966; 26.5 hrs
10. Jan 1968; 27.4 hrs

In the past 27 days (Dec 10th to Jan 4th), Cork Airport has recorded 16.2 hrs of sunshine (including 19 dull days and 14 consecutive dull days up to January 4th) which is just below that of December 1991 as shown above.

Data comes from Met Éireann.
I`m curious as to how much sunshine has been recorded at Cork Airport since last weekend. There have been a few sunny spells in my area (about 30 km from there) over the last 5 or 6 days so I assume there has been some there as well.
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12-01-2019, 19:00   #1857
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The direction of flow is north to south generally for the foreseeable with lows in the mix,some of which will slide,ergo engaging with the cold air feed,battle ground Ireland, what's not to like?

Glosea amongst others is showing the direction of flow from the northeast a lot of the time going forward, which is logical and ties in with all the anomaly charts,what's not to like about that?

There's not going to be uninterrupted cold,there will be milder interludes as lows interact a bit further north
Land sakes you'd want some moderation
Mother nature's looking out for you
You don't want the entire human race killed off
Lastly,will you enjoy the ride For heaven's sake
Wow, you don't half jump to conclusions. Who said I wasn't enjoying the ride? I was simply commenting on one chart (knowing well that one chart in FI does not a winter make) Booing one chart and cheering another is enjoying the ride as far as I'm concerned!

PS Incidentally the chart I was commenting on was edited out.

PPS How do you know I don't want the human race killed off?
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12-01-2019, 19:05   #1858
 
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ECM says no at day nine, ten, for whatever that's worth. Getting model weary at this stage waiting for 'trends' and agreement between them. I remain unconvinced and sceptical of any significant cold spell upcoming between now and the end of January. I can't rule out February, for cold snaps, I can offer nothing theoretical or scientific except the feeling that if the wind is in the west still by then, the daffodils will be making headway. We've seen zero snow this winter, and hardly any frost, it just smacks of being one of those forgettable seasons.
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12-01-2019, 19:38   #1859
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ECM says no at day nine, ten, for whatever that's worth. Getting model weary at this stage waiting for 'trends' and agreement between them. I remain unconvinced and sceptical of any significant cold spell upcoming between now and the end of January. I can't rule out February, for cold snaps, I can offer nothing theoretical or scientific except the feeling that if the wind is in the west still by then, the daffodils will be making headway. We've seen zero snow this winter, and hardly any frost, it just smacks of being one of those forgettable seasons.
Fully agree with you. Getting weary and sceptical myself. I just have this bad feeling that we’re going to be unlucky this winter. Even a nights frost seems to be hard to get. *Sad face*
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12-01-2019, 19:44   #1860
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Fully agree with you. Getting weary and sceptical myself. I just have this bad feeling that we’re going to be unlucky this winter. Even a nights frost seems to be hard to get. *Sad face*
I don't recall any year where there was Snow on the beaches of both Athens and Bray in the same season.

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