Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

BLIZZARD7 · 07-02-2020 1:08am

Larbre34 wrote: »

You're not making allowance for modification in air mass.

I see treacherous conditions with mountain blizzards but cold rain and stinging winds at all other levels for a few days, maybe some night time sleetyness.

A colder than normal north westerly this is, a tight gradient over the north Atlantic may mean less modification meaning we see more in the way of snow than is normal from this source...
Definitely one to watch and I'd say some will be surprised with snow in the early days of next week. Betting knock beats its 10cm or whatever it got during that north westerly last time around.

Some hope of the showers driving well inland and also to some lucky eastern areas at times. The wind chill will make it feel freezing everywhere.

Donegal Storm · 07-02-2020 1:33am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

A colder than normal north westerly this is, a tight gradient over the north Atlantic may mean less modification meaning we see more in the way of snow than is normal from this source...
Definitely one to watch and I'd say some will be surprised with snow in the early days of next week. Betting knock beats its 10cm or whatever it got during that north westerly last time around.

Some hope of the showers driving well inland and also to some lucky eastern areas at times. The wind chill will make it feel freezing everywhere.

Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

squarecircles · 07-02-2020 2:05am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

Slush? , there were coverings of snow across the west last week.

BLIZZARD7 · 07-02-2020 2:42am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

That's assuming that the air that gets to the coastline is heavily modified by the time it arrives (as is usual) - given the extremely cold source I'm saying it wont have the usual time to modify over the Atlantic. -8/-9c 850hpa air is rare enough coming in from the west, at this time of year it should be all snow at those temperatures. Time will tell but I'd say quite a few areas will end up with more than 'slush'.

I'd ignore those GFS snow charts altogether regardless of that they show to be honest.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 5:54am

Well. you have had an interesting time since I went abed last night...

This storm will hit the Canadian coast first so I will get bulletins from family in Newfoundland and BC coast. Forecast is dire there. My family now have a mechanical digging machine at their door..

BC has thawed so they are very wet.

Grateful for warnings here; always a case of prepare for the worst surely. Although conceptions of "worst" and " best" are... different in the snow-loving weather forum

Bitterly cold already here tonight, so my preparations will include putting ALL the winter blankets etc back on the bed.... making a huge pan of chicken soup.... well -equipped out here so even if the gas pipes freeze ( oh, will lag them also...) I have a camping stove and cartridges.

If it is less than forecast, nothing lost. A useful exercise is preparation.

Supplies came in yesterday; the ferry folk are canny, and that actually made it very real for me.

"Cry havoc and let loose the dogs and snow!"

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2020 7:33am

Quite a strong trailing wave on the ECM for Monday evening and overnight, at that point could be very wintry on higher ground in all regions, rather mixed closer to sea level where most people live, but feeling very cold in a piercing wind.

Seeing a bit of a range of outcomes for Sunday, mostly differences in exact timing rather than different peak winds. Will probably be worst in the morning, relenting slightly for Sunday afternoon-evening then ramping up again during Monday.

Not convinced that the models have a really good handle on this complex situation yet, GEM for example has a belt of very strong upper level winds through the southern half of the country, south coast could be surprisingly blustery too.

[Deleted User] · 07-02-2020 7:50am

Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:

The official opening ceremony of Galway 2020 will take place in South Park at the Claddagh on the 8th February 2020 at 5pm with gates open from 4pm. Crowds of up to 50,000 spectators are expected at the event.

The two-hour launch will raise the curtain for Galway’s European Capital of Culture year of events and will involve live music, pyrotechnics with fire and flame effects using a mixture of turf fires and gas flames. The ceremony will represent a timeless and authentic celebration of the people and traditions of Galway and Ireland, and will be delivered in a largescale dramatic explosion of sound and vision.

Seven hand-carved steel sculptures, the town spheres, each reflecting the stories and traditions of the Galway town they represent (Clifden, An Spidéal, Tuam, Ballinasloe, Portumna, Athenry and Galway) will be transformed by flame into giant glowing orbs, and will light up the length of the Galway headland overlooking Galway Bay. Galway’s fleet of iconic traditional boats, the Galway hookers, will assemble illuminated in the bay.

Spectators will view the launch from the green areas of South Park, with the spectacle located on the pathway close to the beach. A procession with fire and flames will start the event, leading into South Park (or ‘The Swamp’ as it is known locally) from the Claddagh Quay and Nimmo’s Pier.

Gates open at 4pm and entertainment commences at 5pm with live performances by Róisín Elsafty, Amazing Apples and No Crows. Plan to arrive early to ensure you find a space and are ready for the main event which starts at 6pm. The approximate end time is 7.45pm.

Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 7:56am

SeaSlacker wrote: »

Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:

Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!

Love your enthusiasm ; may it be rewarded! And hoping the experts here will help .

km79 · 07-02-2020 8:25am

SeaSlacker wrote: »

Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:

Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!

I know the area well having played many a soccer game vs West in The Swamp !
It didn’t get it name for nothing as you know
It’s going to be very wet and very windy
That is an exposed area obviously and given what you have said about temporary structures etc I would say ye might be forced to cancel ........turnout is going to be way down anyway as it will be peeing rain and blowing a gale so it would be both sensible and prudent to rearrange if possible ?

ninebeanrows · 07-02-2020 8:52am

The hope is the front will speed up.

Delaying the event a few hours could help.

Foggy Jew · 07-02-2020 8:55am

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Gaoth Laidir · 07-02-2020 8:59am

00Z ECM has strongest winds of all actually Monday night and along the north coast. Malin Head may come out of this with the highest gusts. Sunday, though, still a windy day for the whole country. Tomorrow too, but not as prolonged.

I'm usually not one to see much in a westerly flow but this one, given its strength across the whole 2000 km from Greenland, should deliver mostly snow showers for many later Monday and Tuesday.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 9:14am

Foggy Jew wrote: »

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Having read this I now really have to emerge from my warm nest to go out and see !

MY WORD ! Bad out there and totally monochrome! Bitter wild wind... shivers... No walk this morning; got as far as the gate... did not think it would be as bad as this today but clearly the ferry knew!

coillsaille · 07-02-2020 9:17am

@Sea Slacker
Well one thing I spotted in that run down that I say will definitely be off is the hookers assembling in the bay.

Snow Garden · 07-02-2020 10:01am

Nice morning in Galway. It's been a lovely week actually.
I guess we better make the most of this morning because I think many of us will be housebound for the next few days.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 10:11am

Just been out bringing in turf and coal, harvesting kale and covering the gas tank. It is dark-clouded and wild out there. But at the back . north facing where the turf is, all is calm and not a ripple on the ocean. Southerly .. worse than I expected so early and will not be out there again... snugged in.

Rebelbrowser · 07-02-2020 10:15am

coillsaille wrote: »

@Sea Slacker
Well one thing I spotted in that run down that I say will definitely be off is the hookers assembling in the bay.

It would be a miserable night to be hanging around in a short skirt and fishnet tights alright.

Rebelbrowser · 07-02-2020 10:16am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

00Z ECM has strongest winds of all actually Monday night and along the north coast. Malin Head may come out of this with the highest gusts. Sunday, though, still a windy day for the whole country. Tomorrow too, but not as prolonged.

I'm usually not one to see much in a westerly flow but this one, given its strength across the whole 2000 km from Greenland, should deliver mostly snow showers for many later Monday and Tuesday.

That GL, always ramping snow events:D

munsterlegend · 07-02-2020 10:17am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

It would be a miserable night to be hanging around in a short skirt and fishnet tights alright.

Thought it was rugby players myself.

nthclare · 07-02-2020 10:28am

Foggy Jew wrote: »

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Darkest morning in Clare all winter, real dark low clouds

ZX7R · 07-02-2020 10:34am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That GL, always ramping snow events:D

I thought his account was hacked by the frog when I first read it ha

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 10:36am

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It`s the first option, Keeer rah to use your spelling. Sleep soundly now.

I say KEE AR A.. the Italian way

antodeco · 07-02-2020 10:48am

Ciara is pronounced like She-Ra, but with a K sound instead (Kee Ra)

Anyway, noticed the sky this morning very dark. Was sure it was going to open up, but nothing as of yet. Its been a lovely clear and calm week overall, but biting cold. Looking forward to a bit of cutting weather. A good cold front and frost, will kill off any of the bugs and bacteria lying about the place!

KingdomRushed · 07-02-2020 10:55am

The slight potential for heavier more organised snow on Monday is slightly further south on GFS taking it into Munster rather than Leinster

nacho libre · 07-02-2020 11:26am

Well this is bittersweet. I just won't
be able to enjoy the snow next Monday as i would in the past. If the upper air temperatures don't get downgraded, given the wind speed, areas that normally don't do well from a north westerly airflow, will do so. I guess this is the one positive from the very strong pv this year.

gerrybhoy · 07-02-2020 11:50am

So we all getting a bit of snow then??

kerryjack · 07-02-2020 11:59am

Do ye think the gaa matches will go ahead this weekend planning heading to omagh this Saturday for kerry v Tyrone. match sunday at 2 PM thanks

Goldfinch8 · 07-02-2020 12:51pm

G.L mentioning snow showers has brightened up my Friday. Childhood excitement reawakening within me.

Cantona's Collars · 07-02-2020 12:55pm

kerryjack wrote: »

Do ye think the gaa matches will go ahead this weekend planning heading to omagh this Saturday for kerry v Tyrone. match sunday at 2 PM thanks

Best to keep an eye on updates and use common sense. If you think the weather is too bad then stay at home. It's a long spin from Kerry to Omagh.

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2020 12:56pm

ARPEGE 06Z an upgrade in wind speeds for Sunday, more in line now with the ECM, strongest winds coming in early from around 05.00 to early afternoon at this stage. Very heavy rain.

Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow TECHNICAL DISCUSSION