Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 See Mod note in OP before posting

Supercell · 12-01-2020 10:25am

Latest fax , looking a bit rough on Monday afternoon countrywide..

Mount Vesuvius · 12-01-2020 10:27am

Great to see how a low can pretty much double bomb and very interesting.
The front crossing the country will give very wet and windy conditions for a time. Then the second blast for the north west as the low veers past.
Storm surge and high tides look like creating the most problems.
I don't see too much wind damage as we escape the path , thankfully.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-01-2020 10:29am

The fact that it's a daytime storm will make the impact worse. A coastal red for the West is quite likely. After the salt hill wave surge before Christmas Met Eireann will issue a red that bit quicker

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:31am

ECM 00Z

Just my opinion and thoughts about Storm Brendan.

Might get more counties in Orange warning level , Wicklow for example looks very strong also for a time. The squally frontal passage that crosses the country from early morning will be the main feature for most I think , most places could get gusts up around 100 to 110km/h for a time. It is the combination of strong winds and heavy driven rain that will make it feel all the stronger and give difficult conditions. High sided vehicles will especially need to exercise caution during this event. Some very strong local winds may occur due to local topography and funneling effects. Along coastal counties especially on the coastal fringes and high ground might exceed Orange warning wind speeds.

Coastal flooding and damage due to erosion could be problematic.

uck51js9zml2yt · 12-01-2020 10:37am

So in summary, big storm coming, met eireann will be criticised for getting it wrong and cars will be flooded in salthill car park....again.

Is that about right?

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:39am

ECM OOZ

That is some wind off the W coast.

Achill and Mayo, W Galway, Donegal , W and S Kerry, W Cork ,Waterford, Wexford getting very strong winds that may exceed Orange warning level for a time especially on the coasts.

bazlers · 12-01-2020 10:39am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 00Z

Just my opinion and thoughts about Storm Brendan.

Might get more counties in Orange warning level , Wicklow for example looks very strong also for a time. The squally frontal passage that crosses the country from early morning will be the main feature for most I think , most places could get gusts up around 100 to 110km/h for a time. It is the combination of strong winds and heavy driven rain that will make it feel all the stronger and give difficult conditions. High sided vehicles will especially need to exercise caution during this event. Some very strong local winds may occur due to local topography and funneling effects. Along coastal counties especially on the coastal fringes and high ground might exceed Orange warning wind speeds.

Coastal flooding and damage due to erosion could be problematic.

Meteorite, excellent detail as always. In percentage, how confident are you on the track of the storm? I could see it getting slightly closer. Obviously just my thoughts.

Graces7 · 12-01-2020 10:40am

Thanks all for detailed warnings. It helps. All is in prepared readiness out here offshore. No worries.

High tide is very loud just now, very full and strong.

West Mayo offshore island

Mount Vesuvius · 12-01-2020 10:45am

@bazlers,
Storms that deepen as quickly as this tend to turn left and stay offshore. I still think it's a devastating fish storm. We are lucky this time again.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:46am

A closer look at where might get some of the strongest winds, mapa bit crude but very useful.

To note that the wind speeds in bold white are generally high ground.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 10:53am

bazlers wrote: »

Meteorite, excellent detail as always. In percentage, how confident are you on the track of the storm? I could see it getting slightly closer. Obviously just my thoughts.

To be honest not completely sure. I have fair confidence in the models but these storms can stall off a bit bringing down the wind speeds or could get a bit closer . I think if it does get closer it is the second round of winds in the W, NW that would get stronger, the frontal passage probably about the same more or less.

The fact that it is so quick moving across the Atlantic and deepening so quickly gives it some unpredictability, but I suppose all storms have some uncertainty with them.

I don't see it getting downgraded if anything might get some enhanced warnings for coastal areas and more counties in Orange warning.

bazlers · 12-01-2020 10:57am

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

@bazlers,
Storms that deepen as quickly as this tend to turn left and stay offshore. I still think it's a devastating fish storm. We are lucky this time again.

Very good MV. I'm no expert by any means..
It just seems to veer left a bit sooner than what I expected.
As you say, hope I'm wrong as it is a bullet to be avoided!

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2020 11:01am

ICON quite close to what the ECM is showing I think.

Cw85 · 12-01-2020 11:14am

Can any sources confirm this what I've attached, looks like red and orange everywhere.

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2020 11:17am

The frontal passage looks active and very turbulent, widespread gusts of 50kts, locally upto 60kts, and like towards 70kt along exposed western coasts, like Belmullet, Mace Head etc will probably get 65-70kt gusts for a time.

There is much more uncertainty as to whether the actually core of winds near the low centre will affect Ireland, the consensus as the moment is to keep them off the northwest coast but there is the risk they could affect the northwest and if they did gusts could approach 75kt in those exposed Atlantic stations, however, at present that is a low risk.

So we are most likely just dealing with the very active frontal winds and the high spring tides and coastal surge.

covey09 · 12-01-2020 11:17am

Thats not from Met.ie so not official AFAIK

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2020 11:20am

This will be hitting during daylight hours on a busy working Monday in January when infrastructure is at its most vulnerable so indeed impacts across Ireland are likely to be more Orangey than yellow.

Widespread gusts from 100-120 km/h will certainly cause some disruption.

US2 · 12-01-2020 11:22am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

This will be hitting during daylight hours on a busy working Monday in January with when infrastructure is at its most vulnerable so indeed impacts across Ireland are likely to be more Orangey than yellow.

Dont think the time of day has any effect on warning levels, there is a set criteria wind speed or rain amounts.

squarecircles · 12-01-2020 11:24am

Looks like the concensus this morning is the core of violent winds has now shifted away to the northwest. Anything 130kmh or below and I loose interest.

stephenjmcd · 12-01-2020 11:27am

US2 wrote: »

Dont think the time of day has any effect on warning levels, there is a set criteria wind speed or rain amounts.

It will effect it yes, a greater public safety issue during daylight than if it passed through at night.
It'll come into their thinking when issuing a red warning

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2020 11:28am

At 06Z this morning it was 997 hPa just off the New Foundland coast. At 06Z tomorrow it's forecast to be 943 hPa off to our west, a drop of 54 hPa in 24 hours. Haven't seen a drop like that in these parts for quite a while. We're dodging a bullet big time, with that strongest gradient on its SW flank staying offshore just about.

US2 · 12-01-2020 11:31am

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It will effect it yes, a greater public safety issue during daylight than if it passed through at night.
It'll come into their thinking when issuing a red warning

Is that just you saying it or what, almost sure it's a set criteria regardless of time of day or season.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-01-2020 11:34am

The media do latch onto these things a bit too much. It doesn't warrant the main headline on rte news and never should really unless a red is issued. They will have to look at this issue internally at Met Eireann. If rte want to go more 'tabloid' going forward Met Eireann will have to get more vocal in what they actually say. For example storm Emma closed the country with snow = rte news was very appropriate! Storm Brendan tomorrow = wet and windy with dangerous coastal flooding possible. 2 very different events with tomorrow being just localised

Donegal Storm · 12-01-2020 11:49am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The media do latch onto these things a bit too much. It doesn't warrant the main headline on rte news and never should really unless a red is issued. They will have to look at this issue internally at Met Eireann. If rte want to go more 'tabloid' going forward Met Eireann will have to get more vocal in what they actually say. For example storm Emma closed the country with snow = rte news was very appropriate! Storm Brendan tomorrow = wet and windy with dangerous coastal flooding possible. 2 very different events with tomorrow being just localised

Indeed, just had a quick read through this thread and already it's set up for the usual petulant 'overhyped/damp squib' arguments on Tuesday.

No leaves on trees at the moment and the west coast is well used to 120kph winds, will cause some localised disruption I'm sure but it's just off-putting how much hype a wet and windy day can gather now

watlantic · 12-01-2020 11:49am

The high seas will most likely be there for the first half of the coming week, as more deep lows are expected to form west of us rapidly after storm Brendan, which itself will bring 9m to 11m (south to north) waves from a westerly direction. This combined with storm force winds and spring tides could cause some damage.

m17 · 12-01-2020 11:50am

Snow Garden · 12-01-2020 12:05pm

Salthill could well flood on the 2nd high hide (19:14) from the looks of those charts.

But as I keep saying, Salthill is unique. A large sign at 2 key points would prevent cars being flooded. I am sure the council will do that or close the road.

John mac · 12-01-2020 12:32pm

Cw85 wrote: »

Can any sources confirm this what I've attached, looks like red and orange everywhere.

if its on facebook , .......

information from such sources should be taken with a large degree of scepticism ,
always check with official sources ..met.ie metoffice.gov.uk etc..

JCX BXC · 12-01-2020 12:38pm

US2 wrote: »

Is that just you saying it or what, almost sure it's a set criteria regardless of time of day or season.

Officially it's a set criteria, however Met Éireann seem to be including impact in their decision making on warnings lately, likely following social media chastisement.

JCX BXC · 12-01-2020 12:39pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

But as I keep saying, Salthill is unique. A large sign at 2 key points would prevent cars being flooded. I am sure the council will do that or close the road.

With the driving standard of many in Galway I'm not sure a large sign would do anything really!

Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 ** See Mod note in OP before posting**

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Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 See Mod note in OP before posting