Possibly turning much colder next week

Sponge Bob · 29-12-2011 10:15pm

Not quite. I found some snow in the 18z :cool:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrHWEH8Dfoqo8DBivJn3N2VUAsDSmLVEQWqyfRaXiXnVDyCniTNw

Su Campu · 29-12-2011 10:15pm

Just because it has been mild up to now and looks like staying mild for another bit does not mean we should rule out the winter. Winter, like people, is very fickle, and can change within a few weeks. Look back to November 2009, which had a very similar setup to now. People should calm down a bit, it's a bit crazy the way people go on if there's no snow on the way for tomorrow. Remember, the chances are stacked AGAINST us when it comes to snow, we've just been spoilt the last two years.

"I WANT MY SNOW, AND I WANT IT NOW!!"

Elmer Blooker · 29-12-2011 10:18pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think if we see a continuation of these charts in 3 weeks time then I think it will be time to start getting very worried about how this winter is turning out. Here's to hoping something more long-term and easterly will appear on the horizon soon.

Omsk in Siberia, which is so far east we are probably nearer to Moscow than this place, is currently at -4c at 4am which I have discovered by doing a google is 14c ABOVE average. http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php

WolfeIRE · 29-12-2011 10:32pm

I have seen some people go off the rocker over being denied their fix of another type of snow but the tantrums on this forum are becoming somewhat ridicalous. Winter is not over until mid March or so in terms of the potential for severe and prolonged wintry weather.

Yes, we are stuck in a zonal setup for the next 2-3 weeks but that only brings us up to mid to the second half of January.

I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face so I would not dare speculate as to what may happen beyond mid January. However, I have a grasp of medium range models, and I can say with great certainty that the weather will not turn much colder next week nor will there be any prolonged cold during the following week.

There are select few on here who possess the ability to read charts beyond the 2-week timeframe and 'speculating' what may occur. Anyone saying winter is over and it will not snow before the winter is out is either well informed (preferably those with such claims should back up such claims) or is having a hissy fit that nobody here wants to read. Less of the latter and more of the former please.

For the sake of world peace, MT please do provide us with your thoughts on the coming month.

derekon · 29-12-2011 10:35pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Just because it has been mild up to now and looks like staying mild for another bit does not mean we should rule out the winter. Winter, like people, is very fickle, and can change within a few weeks. Look back to November 2009, which had a very similar setup to now. People should calm down a bit, it's a bit crazy the way people go on if there's no snow on the way for tomorrow. Remember, the chances are stacked AGAINST us when it comes to snow, we've just been spoilt the last two years.

"I WANT MY SNOW, AND I WANT IT NOW!!"

Fair enough - we have been spoilt the last two winters and this is part of the problem with expectations for this year. I suppose the concern is that on the FI charts out to Jan 11th 2012, there is no sign of any decent cold! This will take up right up to the middle of the meteorological winter, so time is running out. However, it is accepted that Jan 11th is FI so things could change

D

PS - love the above movie!

derekon · 29-12-2011 10:37pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I have seen some people go off the rocker over being denied their fix of another type of snow but the tantrums on this forum are becoming somewhat ridicalous. Winter is not over until mid March or so in terms of the potential for severe and prolonged wintry weather.

Yes, we are stuck in a zonal setup for the next 2-3 weeks but that only brings us up to mid to the second half of January.

I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face so I would not dare speculate as to what may happen beyond mid January. However, I have a grasp of medium range models, and I can say with great certainty that the weather will not turn much colder next week nor will there be any prolonged cold during the following week.

There are select few on here who possess the ability to read charts beyond the 2-week timeframe and 'speculating' what may occur. Anyone saying winter is over and it will not snow before the winter is out is either well informed (preferably those with such claims should back up such claims) or is having a hissy fit that nobody here wants to read. Less of the latter and more of the former please.

For the sake of world peace, MT please do provide us with your thoughts on the coming month.

Here Here!! Could not have put it better myself

D

davidsr20 · 29-12-2011 10:43pm

derekon wrote: »

Well , a temperature of -15.7oC is pretty low by any standards! I understand places in Mayo and Tyrone dipped to around -17.8oC so in fairness Dublin was not far behind and don't forget that Dublin received bucketloads more snow than Galway!!! :D:D:D:D

D

I don't think so man,I was in ballinasloe for the snow blast the start of December last year and was 8 inches high or more,I was working the same week in ballina and castlerea and it was even worse and iv got the photos, I think Dublin get it after that,anyway us in Galway get the most snow so watch this space for next month

Also we had -18

Su Campu · 29-12-2011 10:44pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face

Well this isn't one! A strong vortex holding it own at least 10 days from now, which would put a cold outbreak back a bit more.

derekon · 29-12-2011 11:17pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

I don't think so man,I was in ballinasloe for the snow blast the start of December last year and was 8 inches high or more,I was working the same week in ballina and castlerea and it was even worse and iv got the photos, I think Dublin get it after that,anyway us in Galway get the most snow so watch this space for next month

Also we had -18

Just to clarify:

1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers

2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html

3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!

Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE

D

delw · 29-12-2011 11:39pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Omsk in Siberia, which is so far east we are probably nearer to Moscow than this place, is currently at -4c at 4am which I have discovered by doing a google is 14c ABOVE average. http://abonent.omsk.skylink.ru/webcam.php

they must be kicking the duvets off as we speak

but in all seriousness EB it goes too show how mild it is(im sure -4 is mild to them)

Pangea · 30-12-2011 12:52am

derekon wrote: »

Just to clarify:

1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers

2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html

3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!

Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE

D

Since you are going on about it I might aswell post a few things.

Yes the East did get the heaviest depths recorded as far as I know last winter, especially in the November feature but there was over a foot in places around Donegal aswell and in Mayo in the Decemeber snowfall and we did get plenty of showers coming from the northerly direction, the snow showers didn't just come from the east, the Greenland express is proof of that and the snow was the 'powdery stuff'. As Deep Easterly mentioned before the winds were mostly from the North and North East last year.
Anyway Its not like anyone missed out on anything we were all covered in snow up to our eyeballs! Well most of us (Sorry WolfIre)

As for the -18, that was in Castlederg right on the Tyrone/Donegal border with -17 recorded in Killygordan in Donegal.
It actually dropped to -18.7C in Castlederg on the 24th of that month, it shows -18.0 on this map for the 20th.

Also I would like to introduce you to the elephant in the room.
You can keep your privileged position on the East coast

Deep Easterly wrote:

Map showing average No. of days with snow over Ireland in an average year: (based on 61-90 average)

Map taken from:
"Climates of the British Isles: present, past and future" ( Elaine Barrow, Michael Hulme: 1997)

We must bow our heads in shame!

jimmy.d · 30-12-2011 2:14am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

I have seen some people go off the rocker over being denied their fix of another type of snow but the tantrums on this forum are becoming somewhat ridicalous. Winter is not over until mid March or so in terms of the potential for severe and prolonged wintry weather.

Yes, we are stuck in a zonal setup for the next 2-3 weeks but that only brings us up to mid to the second half of January.

I could not recognise a split polar vortex if it hit me in the face so I would not dare speculate as to what may happen beyond mid January. However, I have a grasp of medium range models, and I can say with great certainty that the weather will not turn much colder next week nor will there be any prolonged cold during the following week.

There are select few on here who possess the ability to read charts beyond the 2-week timeframe and 'speculating' what may occur. Anyone saying winter is over and it will not snow before the winter is out is either well informed (preferably those with such claims should back up such claims) or is having a hissy fit that nobody here wants to read. Less of the latter and more of the former please.

For the sake of world peace, MT please do provide us with your thoughts on the coming month.

ahh sure the north and the midlands might have a bit on new years day above 300 mtr

John.Icy · 30-12-2011 2:25am

I too apologize for going OT, but I wish to respond to Dekeron also. (Not like the thread is of much value

)

Dekeron, you need to step outside your little 'snow bubble' in Dublin. Granted the first bout of snow in late Nov/Early Dec, the East got most, but in the second bout, the North faired extremely well. I saw a picture of a women in a drift nearly at her waist in Donegal! And by reports, it was definately fine powdery snow that fell.

And Easterly wind? Don't think so. NE winds my friend, IOM shadow doesn't really excist otherwise. With straight east winds, Dublin actually can end up in the Anglessy shadow, and get NOTHING!

darkman2 · 30-12-2011 4:58am

Sorry but I have little time. There seems to be a misunderstanding and I don't understand the stick I am getting here (by some who should know better really). I will reply later today but some of the stuff here is off the wall. I am very comfortable with the forecast. Thanks.

But just an update. Hail sleet and snow showers will be into the west of the country on Sunday night. Scattered snow showers elsewhere with frost and ice. Wintry showers for Monday. The start of an interesting period.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2011 5:36am

I think the chances of world peace are about as good as snow in Ireland, but I have my fingers and toes crossed here. The circulation at the moment is about what I had anticipated so I'm not tossing in the towel or anything similar at this point. Was thinking that 8-15 Jan would be the big cooling period and second half January into first few days of February the cold core of the winter, but let's say that's a week too early in general, then you still get the core of winter at the right time for good results.

I don't think the upper or stratospheric events are absolutely necessary to bring this about although it increases the chances considerably -- and there seems to be quiet optimism about the strat warm taking place in January.

Meanwhile, I am posting this while the GFS is half-way through its run and before the ECM, so if I feel more optimistic I will add a few thoughts, but the thing is, the 8-16 day model run output is never that much more than a 50-50 shot in general terms, and if there's a possible pattern change in the works, sometimes we get reliable signs of it only about 6-8 days out.

Not too worried about conditions in Omsk for example, lots of different ways to get cold high pressure into northern Scandinavia, one being almost across the pole from Alaska. There has been a lot of persistent deep cold in eastern Siberia extending towards Korea and the Sea of Japan this winter. North America on the other hand has only seen "home-grown" cold anomalies in the Great Basin region of the western states, while western Canada has been unseasonably mild. That pattern is not looking like changing in the next week to ten days. But the eastern U.S. warmth seems about to deflate for a while.

Deep Easterly · 30-12-2011 9:32am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not quite. I found some snow in the 18z :cool:

:cool:

derekon · 30-12-2011 11:37am

Pangea wrote: »

Since you are going on about it I might aswell post a few things.

Yes the East did get the heaviest depths recorded as far as I know last winter, especially in the November feature but there was over a foot in places around Donegal aswell and in Mayo in the Decemeber snowfall and we did get plenty of showers coming from the northerly direction, the snow showers didn't just come from the east, the Greenland express is proof of that and the snow was the 'powdery stuff'. As Deep Easterly mentioned before the winds were mostly from the North and North East last year.
Anyway Its not like anyone missed out on anything we were all covered in snow up to our eyeballs! Well most of us (Sorry WolfIre)

As for the -18, that was in Castlederg right on the Tyrone/Donegal border with -17 recorded in Killygordan in Donegal.
It actually dropped to -18.7C in Castlederg on the 24th of that month, it shows -18.0 on this map for the 20th.

Also I would like to introduce you to the elephant in the room.
You can keep your privileged position on the East coast

Thanks Pangea - some very interesting facts there. And you are right, most of us on the island of Ireland were up to our knees in the snow last year so no need to fight over a couple of inches here and there !

Also, that map of Ireland indicating average yearly snowfall is interesting and I would not have doubted that Donegal was the county that recorded the most snowfall each year. Which indeed it is!

D

derekon · 30-12-2011 11:38am

John.Icy wrote: »

I too apologize for going OT, but I wish to respond to Dekeron also. (Not like the thread is of much value )

Dekeron, you need to step outside your little 'snow bubble' in Dublin. Granted the first bout of snow in late Nov/Early Dec, the East got most, but in the second bout, the North faired extremely well. I saw a picture of a women in a drift nearly at her waist in Donegal! And by reports, it was definately fine powdery snow that fell.

And Easterly wind? Don't think so. NE winds my friend, IOM shadow doesn't really excist otherwise. With straight east winds, Dublin actually can end up in the Anglessy shadow, and get NOTHING!

Fair point Johh.Icy - North Easterly winds so. Either way it delivered big time!!

:D

D

davidsr20 · 30-12-2011 12:54pm

derekon wrote: »

Just to clarify:

1. Dublin and the East got more snow than Ballina etc during the late Nov/Early Dec 2010 and the late Dec 2010 episodes. Why? Simply due to the fact that the snow came in on Easterly winds. It therefore stands to reason that the East of Ireland got more snow, the showers just did not penetrate that far west. You got some left overs from Atlantic showers

2. Your temp dropped to -18oC? You better get onto Met Eireann so! They recorded the lowest temp last year in the ROI at Straide, Co Mayo at -17.5oC !!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0104/breaking52.html

3. Galway does not get the most snow. It gets the most wet snow!! Dublin gets the powdery stuff due to its privileged position on the East coast! Next time it snows up here from an Easterly, come up and check it out!!

Anyway, have a look at the snow from last year falling on beautiful Dublin!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zcwac-tRHlE

D

Blaaaa :rolleyes:

ninebeanrows · 30-12-2011 3:29pm

Closed this one lads as yes Monday is looking like a chilly day and there could be a few sprinkles of snow in hilly areas and wintry showers down to low levels for a time but this will quickly clear and shouldnt last more than 18 hours before a storm system approaches.

Please use the Current Conditions for reports and Winter Discussion for anything else.

Thanks

Possibly turning much colder next week

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