Viability of small dairy farm

lalababa · 18-01-2021 2:50pm

One man's pocket money is another's fortune. I know a few at it with under 30 cows. One has montbeliairde.
One thing I will say though .. it's milk that is the money maker..not weanlings.

Hard Knocks · 18-01-2021 2:57pm

lalababa wrote: »

One man's pocket money is another's fortune. I know a few at it with under 30 cows. One has montbeliairde.
One thing I will say though .. it's milk that is the money maker..not weanlings.

True
At least with weanlings you only need to look at them once a day
Horses for courses

Kevhog1988 · 18-01-2021 2:59pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Is the market not saturated with dairy producers. How could anyone expect to make money on 45 animals when there are Agriland articles every other day about self flagellation enthusiasts borrowing up to their eyeballs and beyond to break the 1,000 cow barrier.

I think there is a mighty dairy bubble brewing here. And when it pops, there will be some moaning and groaning and places going up for sale by the banks and suicides.

i read that article actually... Fair statement to make that he was going to triple the existing numbers.

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 3:23pm

I just can't see how this upward spiral of different fellas going to 500 to 1000 to probably 1500 cows and expecting it all to be sustainable into the future and pay off the debts. I think there is a certain bit of short sightedness there.

An ever upward spiral of cow numbers just isn't sustainable indefinitely. What next? An agriland article about some lad and his aul fella looking like the cat that got the cream beacause they are the first to break the 10,000 cow barrier?

_Brian · 18-01-2021 3:26pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

I
I think there is a mighty dairy bubble brewing here. And when it pops, there will be some moaning and groaning and places going up for sale by the banks and suicides.

God I hope your wrong.
There’s massive dairy debt out there.

Surely there’s no signs of any problems, I thought demands were continuing to be strong.

whelan2 · 18-01-2021 3:29pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Is the market not saturated with dairy producers. How could anyone expect to make money on 45 animals when there are Agriland articles every other day about self flagellation enthusiasts borrowing up to their eyeballs and beyond to break the 1,000 cow barrier.

I think there is a mighty dairy bubble brewing here. And when it pops, there will be some moaning and groaning and places going up for sale by the banks and suicides.

Same was being said 5 years ago and guess what? We're all still surviving.

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 3:31pm

Perhaps no problems yet, but the big operators who have invested heavily in facilities and are stocking land to the maximum allowable, well, they are sailing close to the wind, have no margin or reserve if anything were to go wrong. A drop in demand or price, or a bad drought, could bring an operation like that with such tigh margins, large debts, and land and feed resouces maxxed out, crashing down if any cogwhell the system that supports it all falters.

I think it is only a matter of time before there is an upset.

Every bubble that ever was, burst. Why should milk be the exception?

Fair enough, there have been no massive shifts in 5 years. OK. But what terms are these fellas borrowing over? 15, 20, 25? That timescale gives a lot more scope for market shifts or weather induced hardships to break the knife edge run farms. Look at the past 25 years. Property up, property bust. dot com up, dot com bust. Are you telling me dairy will be the one bubble that will continue forever?

And one more thing, for an inevitable event, the longer time goes on without an event happening, the more likely it is to happen.

In my view, the part time suckler lad who starts making inroads into dairy and taking on debts to do so, is the agriculture equivalent of the 2007 taxi driver with a Bulgarian property portfolio.

18-01-2021 3:31pm

_Brian wrote: »

God I hope your wrong.
There’s massive dairy debt out there.

Surely there’s no signs of any problems, I thought demands were continuing to be strong.

Signs are starting to emerge in my area,lads realising theres no pot of gold at end of it

Know personally last summer,during the (brief) drought,of at least 1 lad,who wasnt allowed down the yard on his own...thankfully it worked out and nothing stupid was done

,i hope it will continue to so,i while uneasy at many of the practices involved in intensive dairying,dont want my neighbours to go broke/it decend into banks selling farms or worse outcomes

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:33pm

_Brian wrote: »

I know what your thinking but that’s not really how it happens on the ground.

Same if you spend 10 years at a MF dealership and open an independent garage yourself, you’ll be expected to work on whatever comes on the door, you won’t just be sticking to MF or you’ll be closing up quickly.
You need to view equipment in a broader sense, actual engineering principles carry over and much commonality exists between brands and models. Contrary to their glossy brochures there is little unique engineering development, it’s mostly a remastering of existing principles. The diesel combustion engine for example while been refined the broad principles have changed little.

Thats reassuring anyway, i was kind of thinking along the lines of farmers who wouldnt consider a fella to fix their John Deere because he only works on new hollands usually that type of thing, whatever comes in the door i would give a good effort to fix anyway wouldnt snob any repair because of brand

i'd argue that tractors have been downgraded in recent years with all this emissions ****e and as they say theres no replacement for displacement

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:40pm

carrollsno1 wrote: »

Nobody knows if GEA will be taking on in rwo years but we know there taking on apprentices now. Youve applied for the dairy course but you havent got it yet either.
You really need to open youre mind mate you said youve no experience in such and such a thing youre going in as a first year apprentice not a qualified tradesman.
Youve said youve older sisters with no interesst in farming but whats stopping them getting an interest or marrying the big dairy farmer up the road with 300 cows and youre auld fella takes a liking to him and thinks the sun shines out of his arse and he ends up rearing hejfers for him. What if you turn out like me and go travelling with no qualifications outside farming and get a gra for working in construction i coukdnt getva visa to stay out there ive no real gra for farming at home anymore and im counting down the days till im finally qualified and able to head back out there. Youre farm sou ds exactly like ours back when i was youre age and its been split in two already in the space if less than ten years.

Already have a part time job in construction and i dont mind doing the work every now and again but not every day for the rest of my life, thankfully the dairy farmers with 200/300 cows are a good hours drive by tractor so that should keep them away

although knowing how greedy they are for land you never know

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:43pm

_Brian wrote: »

This whole thread just shows there is so little actual practical career guidance happening on our schools still.

It’s very disheartening.

I’ve a daughter in LC and the guidance they are given is deplorable, in many schools it’s seem and a dead end to dump some has been into to save confronting their inability to teach.

the "guidance" teachers meet ya once in the year give you one random recomendation for a job if you dont know what you are doing, (one girl in my class was recommended nursing as she seemed caring to the guidance teacher, she is one of the most squemish people you will ever meet, faint at sight of blood kind of thing) i mentioned these 2 courses and she said theyll be grand and theres good job opportunities after them, this thread has opened my eyes tbf

_Brian · 18-01-2021 3:44pm

Ford4life wrote: »

Thats reassuring anyway, i was kind of thinking along the lines of farmers who wouldnt consider a fella to fix their John Deere because he only works on new hollands usually that type of thing, whatever comes in the door i would give a good effort to fix anyway wouldnt snob any repair because of brand
i'd argue that tractors have been downgraded in recent years with all this emissions ****e and as they say theres no replacement for displacement

Reputation is what farmers appreciate.

If you get a name for being good and reliable and always taking a lad out of a bind then you will go far. Farmers love to talk, good or bad, they will spread your reputation far and wide, what they spread is really up to you.

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 3:44pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Signs are starting to emerge in my area,lads realising theres no pot of gold at end of it

Know personally last summer,during the (brief) drought,of at least 1 lad,who wasnt allowed down the yard on his own...thankfully it worked out and nothing stupid was done

,i hope it will continue to so,i while uneasy at many of the practices involved in intensive dairying,dont want my neighbours to go broke/it decend into banks selling farms or worse outcomes

That is just it. The whole thing is so marginal that it all runs of a tightrope. Any little wobble in the supports and you are in danger of collapse.

The story above luckily didn't end in tragedy. But I predict that there will be many many more cases of this, sadly, not avoiding tragic outcomes. They won't happen all at once, but if there is a major shift or disruption in the market, or a bad drought or bad winter, we could very easily see a massive debt, animal welfare, and environmental crisis in dairy and sadly tragic circumstances will come out of it too.

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:45pm

Hard Knocks wrote: »

You’re 100% right Brian
Sadly no different when I was in school either
When I started college 10 dropped out of my course the first week as the course wasn’t what they thought
That’s not fair on students or their parents

Serious cost to it aswell, thats a year or 2 wasted and not to mention the college fees. I would be paying the fees myself dont want to put that pressure on my parents with 3 older sisters in college aswell

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:49pm

Kevhog1988 wrote: »

Might be safe that they have no interest in farming but may have an interest in the farms value. Theres nothing like land to bring the green eyed monster out in people. As i said in my first response make sure if you go investing money that the land is/will be eventually yours.

None of this will happen unless all the land goes in my name, plenty of families broken up over the years over land, there was 2 or 3 fellas shot over land arguments in a family recently enough in mallow i think it was

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:55pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Is the market not saturated with dairy producers. How could anyone expect to make money on 45 animals when there are Agriland articles every other day about self flagellation enthusiasts borrowing up to their eyeballs and beyond to break the 1,000 cow barrier.

I think there is a mighty dairy bubble brewing here. And when it pops, there will be some moaning and groaning and places going up for sale by the banks and suicides.

Thats why im keeping the risk low at starting at just a loan of 40,000 for parlour and bulk tank, will only expand then once its fully paid off and I have a decent chunk of it saved up

A well managed herd of 60 animals would be plenty income, the costs for the fellas keeping hundreds of cows doesn't make sense, they would be doing away grand at 80 cows working by themselves then decide to take on rented land for 300/acre, double the cow numbers, build a new parlour due to higher cow numbers, need a new shed to keep them,then pay fellas to look after the cattle for them, they would be absolutely bolloxed if the bubble did burst

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:56pm

Hard Knocks wrote: »

True
At least with weanlings you only need to look at them once a day
Horses for courses

Only keep the weanlings to keep the rough land grazed as 35 acres is too much for 24 cattle, once i get the shed up then id go for 60 cattle and no weanlings just sell them at 2-4wks

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 3:59pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

I just can't see how this upward spiral of different fellas going to 500 to 1000 to probably 1500 cows and expecting it all to be sustainable into the future and pay off the debts. I think there is a certain bit of short sightedness there.

An ever upward spiral of cow numbers just isn't sustainable indefinitely. What next? An agriland article about some lad and his aul fella looking like the cat that got the cream beacause they are the first to break the 10,000 cow barrier?

tis pure greed, they would be doing fine with 80 cows and do the work themselves

tanko · 18-01-2021 3:59pm

Hook, line and sinker comes to mind.

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:01pm

_Brian wrote: »

God I hope your wrong.
There’s massive dairy debt out there.

Surely there’s no signs of any problems, I thought demands were continuing to be strong.

If the bubble does burst then it will be a lot worse than the recession after the construction bubble burst, most new dairy farms would have hundreds of thousands on loan from the bank and theres farms there that have probably millions on loan

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 4:01pm

Deleted User wrote: »

About e6 an hour starting off....i was on e183 approx a week during the boom starting off.....eventually got l got laid off and ended in agri place

Worked for 2 of the top 5 brands,along with the machinery side,after 6 years post qualified exp was making <e12 an hour,asked for a pay rise upto 14....got pissed off the delays in getting it after 6months,so handed in me notice and took off to sunnier climates and between travelling about,thirst for adventure etc,eventually fell into a FI/FO job with a massive company operating across the pacific......

only for such p1ssing about with payrises,and crap hours,id likely have never left tbf.....you'll get your HGV/plant fitter apprenticeship anywhere,look on indeed.ie....most place looking for 2nd/3rd year apprentices will take yous on,...theres a shortage of em in the world,but wages dont reflect this reality

There is a reason there is a massive shortage of fitters and it is related only partly to the abysmal pay and conditions of the job. I could never advise any person I cared about to go into mechanicing or HGV fitter. What will a person get from that ....

- a dangerous enough job, lots of risks of injury and sickness caused by lifting heavy components, dust/fumes/chemicals
- very poor & often dangerous conditions like working under broken down machines on sites.
- unsocial hours, no thanks for it, and zero respect, and massive pressure.
- a bad back and physically crippled by the time you're 45.
- really bad pay with little prospect for increase or advancement. D&D (Dangerous & Dirty) jobs are all well and good where the pay reflects the ardour of the job, eg, undersea pipeline welder etc. But realistically HGV and plant fitters will not expect to make a whole lot more than minimum wage for most of their careers, despite having to work like dogs in often dangerous conditions.

A think a question that brings it all home to a young person thinking of it is this .. Do you really want to be in your 50s or early 60s with a crippled back, probably multiple other injuries build up over time, and still having to beat worn pins out of the tracks of a digger up to your knees in icy mud, because, as much as you want to, you are unable to retire because you never made enough money in the job to allow you to build up any sort of decent pension that you can retire and live on.

If I had a son who suggested it, it would slap the idea out of his head fairly lively.

If someone wants to be a fitter and have a decent standard of living out of it they should be aiming for the likes of pharmaceutical companies or large food processing plants and so on.

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:05pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

Perhaps no problems yet, but the big operators who have invested heavily in facilities and are stocking land to the maximum allowable, well, they are sailing close to the wind, have no margin or reserve if anything were to go wrong. A drop in demand or price, or a bad drought, could bring an operation like that with such tigh margins, large debts, and land and feed resouces maxxed out, crashing down if any cogwhell the system that supports it all falters.

I think it is only a matter of time before there is an upset.

Every bubble that ever was, burst. Why should milk be the exception?

Fair enough, there have been no massive shifts in 5 years. OK. But what terms are these fellas borrowing over? 15, 20, 25? That timescale gives a lot more scope for market shifts or weather induced hardships to break the knife edge run farms. Look at the past 25 years. Property up, property bust. dot com up, dot com bust. Are you telling me dairy will be the one bubble that will continue forever?

And one more thing, for an inevitable event, the longer time goes on without an event happening, the more likely it is to happen.

In my view, the part time suckler lad who starts making inroads into dairy and taking on debts to do so, is the agriculture equivalent of the 2007 taxi driver with a Bulgarian property portfolio.

Thats why im keeping the debt to a minimum, incase things do go bust then i woudlnt be badly burnt at 40,000 compared to the lads with 300,000 on loan to start up, id only invest in a new cubicle shed and milking parlour if i can cover the majority of the cost myself and am fairly sure that it will be alright, main reason for the last recession was the banks ****ing around with millions and taking cuts for themselves out of the loans they pay out

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:06pm

_Brian wrote: »

Reputation is what farmers appreciate.

If you get a name for being good and reliable and always taking a lad out of a bind then you will go far. Farmers love to talk, good or bad, they will spread your reputation far and wide, what they spread is really up to you.

true for ya, as they say a happy customer will tell 1 person but an unhappy person would tell 20 so id try and keep them all happy and not let any fella down

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:09pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

That is just it. The whole thing is so marginal that it all runs of a tightrope. Any little wobble in the supports and you are in danger of collapse.

The story above luckily didn't end in tragedy. But I predict that there will be many many more cases of this, sadly, not avoiding tragic outcomes. They won't happen all at once, but if there is a major shift or disruption in the market, or a bad drought or bad winter, we could very easily see a massive debt, animal welfare, and environmental crisis in dairy and sadly tragic circumstances will come out of it too.

Wasnt allowed down the yard incase he would off himself is it?

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 4:10pm

that's it. worried he'd hang himself

French Toast · 18-01-2021 4:15pm

Get an education and a decent off farm job. Tip away at the farming/milking in so far as you can during the evenings/weekends/holidays. Use it as a hobby to keep you sane or an extra top-up on your income.

Don't think I have met a man yet who regretted that approach.

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:15pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

There is a reason there is a massive shortage of fitters and it is related only partly to the abysmal pay and conditions of the job. I could never advise any person I cared about to go into mechanicing or HGV fitter. What will a person get from that ....

- a dangerous enough job, lots of risks of injury and sickness caused by lifting heavy components, dust/fumes/chemicals
- very poor & often dangerous conditions like working under broken down machines on sites.
- unsocial hours, no thanks for it, and zero respect, and massive pressure.
- a bad back and physically crippled by the time you're 45.
- really bad pay with little prospect for increase or advancement. D&D (Dangerous & Dirty) jobs are all well and good where the pay reflects the ardour of the job, eg, undersea pipeline welder etc. But realistically HGV and plant fitters will not expect to make a whole lot more than minimum wage for most of their careers, despite having to work like dogs in often dangerous conditions.

A think a question that brings it all home to a young person thinking of it is this .. Do you really want to be in your 50s or early 60s with a crippled back, probably multiple other injuries build up over time, and still having to beat worn pins out of the tracks of a digger up to your knees in icy mud, because, as much as you want to, you are unable to retire because you never made enough money in the job to allow you to build up any sort of decent pension that you can retire and live on.

If I had a son who suggested it, it would slap the idea out of his head fairly lively.

If someone wants to be a fitter and have a decent standard of living out of it they should be aiming for the likes of pharmaceutical companies or large food processing plants and so on.

Working inside a decent workshop would mitigate a lot of that, having the proper tools for the job etc.
Council pay mechanics fairly well, 9-5 job, good conditions, proper tools for the job
Dont have to be working in a ****hole all the time

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:18pm

TheBoyConor wrote: »

that's it. worried he'd hang himself

Most of them are in over their heads with thousands in debt and 1c change in the milk price could make the difference of making the bank repayments or not with the amount of cattle they have, thats why id take it handy at the start to not be dropped in the deep end right away

Ford4life · 18-01-2021 4:19pm

French Toast wrote: »

Get an education and a decent off farm job. Tip away at the farming/milking in so far as you can during the evenings/weekends/holidays. Use it as a hobby to keep you sane or an extra top-up on your income.

Don't think I have met a man yet who regretted that approach.

Council are always stuck for mechanics so would be 9-5 there would suit grand and take time off for the important jobs around the place, calving, slurry, silage and youd be home in time for milking each day

TheBoyConor · 18-01-2021 4:25pm

Ford4life wrote: »

Working inside a decent workshop would mitigate a lot of that, having the proper tools for the job etc.
Council pay mechanics fairly well, 9-5 job, good conditions, proper tools for the job
Dont have to be working in a ****hole all the time

maybe some bit but an awful lot of main dealers wouldn't even have the proper gear either. They either can't afford it themselves or are just pure tight because it isn't them having to risk life and limb out there on she shop floor.

I think the likes of FarmFlix and Grassmen has popularised and glamourised farming and the daysul lifestyle. But young people need to realise that what is shown on those is not in any way representative of what the real life of machinery and farming is about. mechanicing jobs are amongst the worst, if not the worst, paid trade.

For any lad that is intelligent and driven, it really is a waste of their potential to get go down that road.

I see fellas that are in that sector with years and they all have bad backs in their 30s, health problems in their 40s escalating in their 50s with heart attacks and unsually dead before they are 70

Viability of small dairy farm

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