Saturday 16th Jan

got this sent via email




SATURDAY, 16TH JANUARY

2:25 Warwick – Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A wide open renewal of this Grade 2 for novice hurdlers and it could be a chance for LORD OF KERAK to reverse the form of his three-length novice hurdle defeat over 2m to Adrimel given that rival now carries a 3lb penalty. The Olly Murphy-trained horse improved plenty for this step up to two and a half miles last time out and with the well-beaten third in that race, Oneupmanship, pushing the smart, well-handicapped Sizable Sam all the way in a handicap last weekend, the form was boosted nicely. Murphy’s charge has confirmed stamina for this test, unlike many of his shorter-priced rivals, deals with the very soft ground well and looks to be steadily improving as he goes along, so in an open contest, he holds much better claims than his chunky available price of 12/1 suggests.


bettrends Advice: LORD OF KERAK 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes,

Coral)





3:00 Warwick – McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
All the tipsters seem keen on Captain Chaos here and you can certainly see why with the blinkers back on after coming down to a workable mark, but it’s a 2lb higher mark than when second last year and the record of horses aged in double figures is relatively poor in this race over the last decade – 80% of those who have finished in the first four in the last ten runnings of the Classic Chase have been aged nine or younger. Therefore, the Alan King-trained NOTACHANCE (pictured above left) looks the one to beat. He showed that he’d come on plenty for his first season chasing when winning really impressively on his first run of this season at Bangor. That contest was a genuinely high-quality race over three miles on soft ground and, from a mark of 132, he defeated subsequent Welsh National second The Two Amigos, Boldmere, Coo Star Sivola, Acting Lass, Tidal Flow, Kilbricken Storm, Yalltari and today’s reopposing pair of Captain Chaos and Django Django (pictured above right), who were both pulled up a long way out. It was a proper race, run at a good gallop and the selection jumped, travelled and finished his race off like a proper good horse, well worth his place at that level and higher. He’s entitled to have come on for that first run of the season, he’s still got plenty of scope for improvement, he stays well, he has no problem with deep ground and he’s had a nice break to reach top form since that November win, so it’s absolutely possible that a 7lb rise in the weights is manageable for this progressive chaser. Given a clear run and some solid jumping, there’s Notachance that this young horse won’t be involved in the finish.
bettrends Advice: NOTACHANCE 1pt E/W @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor – 4 places)

Lady of aran 2pts e/w 12/1


Kempton Saturday…
7.20 Lady of Arran currently 14/1
The deeper I look into this race the more I like Lady of Aran, I know backing a filly can be tricky but her course form is nothing short of amazing. At 14s she is the outsider of the field and in my opinion is the one to be on e/w.
Lady of Aran is currently rated 82. Georgia Dobie rides and takes off 5lb reducing that to 77. She has ridden the horse four times resulting in form figures of 9441 The ninth finishing position was in a 12 runner listed race at Newmarket where she was only beaten 8 and 1/4L. The race was run on soft ground which would not have suited Lady of Aran.

Let’s have a close look at her form
Lifetime form 4212/7934201032/2937441958-
Allweather form 421223229358
Kempton 7f form 122323
That’s six races at Kempton, winning one and 2nd or 3rd in the other five races never beaten further than two length’s in any of them. I mentioned the jockeys 5LB claim as it takes the fillies mark to 77. Lady of Aran has raced at Kempton twice when rated under 80 resulting in form figures of 22 beaten a shd and a hd
Jockey Georgia Dobie has not got a great win record at the track 147/19 (12.93%) however 44 places (29.93%) is decent indeed.
Trainer Charlie Fellows last five year record at Kempton is 173/18 (10.90%) and 56 places (32.37%) is a decent strike rate .
trainer is a co owner, keep an eye on the betting n way should this be 14/1

Timeform’s conclusion for tomorrows race…….C&D winner but didn't enjoy the rub of the green when last of 8 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 25/1) 20 days ago. Not ruled out. *** 3 stars

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 – McCoy Contractors Hampton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m ITV4

13/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
13/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/13 – Aged 7 years-old
9/13 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/13 – Winning favourites
Two For Gold (3/1) won the race in 2020


2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
14/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
10/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Aged 5 years-old
6/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune, Willoughby Court, 2017 Neptune)
2/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 6)
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 8)
Mossy Fen (7/2) won the race in 2020


3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/15 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/15 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
11/15 – Officially rated between 129-140
11/15 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
10/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/15 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King

Kimberlite Candy (9/2) won the race in 2020
Just one winning favourite in the last 15 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

15/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
12/15 – Officially rated between 126-142
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Winning favourites

Silver Sheen (7/1) won the race in 2020
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey




Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.05 – MansionBet Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track


2.40 – MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m7f ITV4

Trainer Colin Tizzard has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 18% record riding over hurdles at the track


3.15 – Alan Swinbank mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

Three previous runnings
Trainers Willie Mullins, Murty McGrath and Emma Lavelle are previous winners of the race
One winning favourite
All three previous winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last three winners carried 10st 3lbs
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 19% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

stretchaq wrote: »

All over le breuil in this one

Agreed, and have backed The Hollow Ginge as cover.

Form has been patchy been Jack Kennedy getting down to 10-03 to ride Or Jaune De Somoza in the Dan and Joan Moore is a good sign and at 33/1 I've had small ew punt.

Also On The Blind Side was hugely impressive last week and I think that 13/8 enhanced price with PP looks a decent price still

Carq a nice winner in the opening post of this saturday thread. Did you play the SCOOP6 today? Its going to be a big one. I played a fantasty Scoop 6 placepart still going into leg 2...

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Form has been patchy been Jack Kennedy getting down to 10-03 to ride Or Jaune De Somoza in the Dan and Joan Moore is a good sign and at 33/1 I've had small ew punt.

Also On The Blind Side was hugely impressive last week and I think that 13/8 enhanced price with PP looks a decent price still

OTBS won and JDS placed at 50/1. Had worse days