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30-08-2019, 16:16   #1
star gazer
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Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian does look ominous for Florida and sooner for parts of the Bahamas. It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane in the next 24 hours and could be a Category four on landfall somewhere along Floridas East coast.
Quote:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
...
INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
NHC Discussion 25
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30-08-2019, 16:26   #2
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https://twitter.com/AstroDrewMorgan/...47150478934016

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/...70511842107392

Last edited by HighLine; 30-08-2019 at 17:37.
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30-08-2019, 19:37   #3
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WEBCAMS (times subject to change):
Green Turtle Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
Treasure Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (6pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
Paradise Island: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected
Old Bahama Bay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 around Lunchtime Monday our Time (1pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
FT Lauderdale: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected (see also Hilton Beach cam)
Pompano Beach: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected

Plenty more from the PTZ site
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30-08-2019, 20:04   #4
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Latest ECMWF impression has 'Dorian' stalling around the Grand Bahama region for almost a 24hr period between Sun evening (our time) and Monday.

Image may take a while to load properly.

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30-08-2019, 21:10   #5
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Max winds now 100 kts, with higher gusts, however the highest winds are confined to a very small area around the northeastern eyewall and the 64-kt winds extend only out to 25 miles from the centre. Still a small wind-field but it should expand a bit more from here now as the eye has fully formed.

Latest visible image from a few.mins ago.

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30-08-2019, 21:18   #6
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Ocean Heat Content shows Dorian currently in relatively shallow warm layer, moving into a slightly deeper pool later tomorrow. However, as it slows down, upwelling should offset some of the intensification and lower shear. Such a delicate balance of many competing factors makes this compelling viewing!

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30-08-2019, 21:26   #7
Kermit.de.frog
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Center stalling over Grand Bahama for a length would have a deleterous effect on the eye wall as well. That could be the difference between a Cat 4, Cat 3 or even verging on Cat 5.

This will be a fascinating one to watch.

You can keep up to date with the Hurricane Hunter recon missions in to Dorian here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN

Mission 19 (already) was en-route but they seem to have turned back...

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 30-08-2019 at 21:53.
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30-08-2019, 21:50   #8
J6P
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Beautiful but deadly!

Interesting model watching when a 50 mile shift east or west can either devastate or spare florida.

Grand Bahama looks to be in serious trouble with this thing forecast to stall over them.

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30-08-2019, 22:40   #9
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Nice explanation for those interested in the factors influencing Dorians track

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30-08-2019, 23:03   #10
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Mission 21 underway...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN






Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 30-08-2019 at 23:20.
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30-08-2019, 23:27   #11
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Looking like it’s developing that buzzsaw effect. Rapid intensification underway I’d say now. Cat 5 certainly not out of the question.

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30-08-2019, 23:35   #12
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"Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 30-08-2019 at 23:44.
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30-08-2019, 23:45   #13
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What's it's most likely path for us as an ex hurricane? Will it across the Atlantic?
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30-08-2019, 23:47   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
"Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.
Yeah really cleared out now. Latest sat looks to me a high end Cat 3 if not a Cat 4.

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30-08-2019, 23:49   #15
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Eye looking fairly symmetrical now. Intensifying. Very deep convection increasing around the eye. Now a major Hurricane with winds near 115mph / 185 km/h / 100 knts

NHC saying upper level environment and high SST's leading Dorian to become an extremely dangerous Hurricane yet depending on the steering currents very uncertain if it will go inland, keep near the shore or offshore. Models are suggesting that it could turn and veer up along and near the coast . Could slow and stall just off the Florida coast before turning up the coast.





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