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28-05-2019, 13:38   #1
sryanbruen
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Summer 2019 - General Discussion

Ah... Summer 2019. Now what will you bring? Will you be a 2012? Will you be a 1995? Will you be a 2005? Will you be a 1985? Well if we knew, there'd be no fun in that!

To start off this thread, I will be giving my final analogues for Summer 2019 and these will be considered for the forecast that I will do very shortly. Unlike previous analogues, I have made strict scoring for these ones because so many years have appeared for 5 or more elements so years must have at least 8 or more elements to be considered for these analogues.

Out of these years, there is Summer 1995, Summer 1990, Summer 2017, Summer 1989 and Summer 1997. Summer 1995 was the highest scoring year with a total of 11 elements.

The June 2019 analogue I have generated using the years above shows below average heights over much of Europe and going through the UK/Ireland with above average heights from eastern Greenland over towards Scandinavia. This looks like a cool and unsettled setup. Yes, there's a Scandi High which could threaten warmer easterly or southeasterly winds and with the below average heights could result in some thundery moments. However, the below average heights are well in on Ireland and with blocking to the north, this only leaves us pulling in a cool west to northwesterly flow.



The July 2019 analogue does a complete flip on June with a very strong signal for above average heights to sit over Ireland. The jet stream is being pushed to the north with below average heights parked over Greenland. This looks like a very warm and dry scenario, maybe even hot. Wind direction would be variable. Looks similar to July 2013.



The August 2019 analogue looks similar to July with above average heights ridging through Ireland but its centre is a bit further eastwards, allowing the air to come from a southeasterly direction. The jet stream looks a bit closer to Ireland which could threaten relatively cloudier and wetter conditions to the northwest but overall, looks like another dry and very warm scenario, maybe even hot again. Would result in the hottest August since at least 2003 I would have thought, though is that really saying much?



The Summer 2019 analogue (for the Summer as a whole) looks anticyclonic with above average heights well in truly over Ireland indicative of high pressure, despite a cool and unsettled June.



Do I think the analogues have got it right though? Find out shortly.
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28-05-2019, 16:25   #2
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So going by the above analogues, you would think Summer 2019 will be warmer and drier than average after a mixed June. As high pressure would be a strong influence with temperatures above average through July and August, there would be some concerns of returning to drought conditions.

Do I think highly of these analogues? Kind of yes. The June analogue has some similarities to the outlook for early June 2019 in the medium range right now, as the -NAO is not expected to go away any time soon making it difficult for warmer conditions to occur especially for Ireland. The most recent cooler than average June was 2015 so I think we're due one. I think July has a fair chance of verifying with warmer and drier conditions. Consecutive warm or hot Julys historically aren't too unusual - like 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989-91, 1995/96, 2005/06, 2013/14. I think August has a good chance of verifying too provided the atmosphere remains stable and something unique or a disturbance does not occur, like a sudden change in ENSO or the North Atlantic SST profile intensifying to favour -NAO for example. This is the same with July to some extent too.

Models are all extremely mixed for Summer 2019 so they offer very little help for the forecast.

There is almost a tripole developed through May in the North Atlantic which is an important indicator for Winter, not so much for Summer. But I wonder if this could have an impact on the Summer as it favours -NAO which in Summer usually results in cool and wet conditions (not always as positioning of blocking differs every time). The infamous Summers from 2007 to 2012 all had -NAO, although only one year had a visible tripole in the North Atlantic during May - 2010. In Spring 2018, a horseshoe shape of cold SST anomalies had developed in the North Atlantic Ocean which was theorised to increase the chance of a strong Azores High through Summer 2018 and thus increase the risk of a hot season. This was indeed the case and there was record breaking +NAO, unprecedented even in recorded history. However, after researching for Summer 2019 and using the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic through May 2019, I'm not so sure on this theory as Mays 1992 and 1993 had a very similar profile (as did May 1976 which I used as a primary baseline for Summer 2018) to May 2018. I could not find a great match to May 2019 in the archive in terms of North Atlantic SSTs but closest matches I could get were May 1954, May 1980, May 1995, May 1997, May 2002, May 2003 and May 2004. Quite a mix of summers here! Summer 1954, 1980 and 2002 were all very dull and the latter was relatively warm (due to August, whilst June and July were quite cool) and wet. Summer 1997 had a poor June, a mild/warm and mostly dry July, a hot and exceptionally wet August in the south. Summer 2003 had a hot August - June and July were also warm but thundery. Summer 2004 had a warm June, cool and unsettled July and a very warm but wet August. I don't think I need to say Summer 1995 which was a drought summer. Notice that 5 of the 7 years here had warm or hot Augusts whilst two (1995 and 2003) were very dry and two (1997 and 2004) were very wet, the other (2002) was quite dry but not exceptionally so. In contrast, Summers 1954 and 1980 were among the poorest of the 20th century.

ENSO is expected to neutralise this summer which in theory should have little impact but sudden changes in oceanic or atmospheric behaviour could give major impacts on the season especially later, and this forecast could go as a bust.

So, overall I am going to go for a warmer than average summer but no 2018. The only way I can see us getting close to or beating 2018 would be if my analogue charts for July and August were to verify exactly as shown above which especially for July are extreme scenarios so unlikely. I think the summer will get off to a slow start but improve as the season goes on, compared to Summer 2018 which started off very high and got more and more benign. It's not too often that a very warm/dry July AND August occur simultaneously (for example, 1955, 1976, 1983, 1990, 1995) in Ireland but I think 2019 has a chance.

To summarise month by month:

June - A relatively cool and unsettled month but no significant deviations from average.

July - A warmer than average month with the potential for some very warm weather. Generally anticyclonic.

August - Much warmer than average but the ongoing risk of an unstable atmosphere resulting in variable rainfall.

As always, long range forecasting is unreliable and not to be taken seriously so this forecast is just for fun. Thanks for reading. We'll see how she goes.
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01-06-2019, 06:53   #3
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Happy summer all!

Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

A season of burgeoning promise.
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01-06-2019, 08:27   #4
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Happy summer all!

Welcome whatever the weather.. season of growth and beauty and exuberance.

Took the cats ( or vice versa) down the lane for the first time for three days. My old 15 year old actually ran! The wild flowers are a glory now. Just needed water. Berry blossoms too.

A season of burgeoning promise.
Glorious morning in south Tipp to welcome summer.


Translation it’s 12 degrees overcast and lashing rain currently.
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01-06-2019, 09:14   #5
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A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.
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01-06-2019, 09:22   #6
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A lot more rain in the SE than the patchy rain met eireann were forecasting. Cloudy but dry here in Castlebar. Overall , miserable June 1st.
The precipitation looks heavy on the radar but it is only light here in Wicklow. Hopefully should clear in a few hours anyway.
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01-06-2019, 10:53   #7
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Little spit of rain this morning.

News of lows of 9/10 degrees at the start of June is seriously depressing
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01-06-2019, 11:35   #8
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Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.
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01-06-2019, 11:39   #9
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Friends away on long weekend breaks, showing blue skies and Summer in both London and Amsterdam. Meanwhile here in Ireland our first day of summer, it's spitting drizzle and 13C.

The forecast for the next 2 weeks is grim, but hopefully luck comes our way in July and August. If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

IF July and August end up being decent, then the very poor May and what looks like a terrible June will be forgiven.
Exactly totally agree. Looking at the satellite this morning though is very painful.
Clear blue skies from the tip of southern Spain to the tip of Northern France.
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01-06-2019, 11:44   #10
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If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.
Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.
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01-06-2019, 11:47   #11
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This chart sums up what looks like will be the pattern for the forseeable future this June. Looks like a fantastic June for continental Europe and the south-east UK won't do too badly either. We seem to be stuck under this non ending low pressure to our north-west for the next 2 to 3 weeks.

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01-06-2019, 11:49   #12
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Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.
I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!
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01-06-2019, 11:52   #13
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I reckon you'll be one of the very few leaving cert years to experience crap weather for the leaving cert. A hot spell during Leaving Cert is nearly always certain most years!
Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!
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01-06-2019, 11:54   #14
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Coincidentally enough, my Junior Cert (2016) had pretty rubbish weather too with generally overcast conditions and some downpours but mild nights!
you definitely got lucky both years, nothing worse than being stuck in an exam hall for the day and it's 25C+ outside. It was like that for me for both junior and leaving cert. At least with rubbish weather it's not as bad and you can concentrate on your work more.
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01-06-2019, 12:01   #15
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We're not having a summer, we always pay for the good one with a bad 'un.
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