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30-05-2020, 21:59   #1
Gaoth Laidir
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2020 Hurricane Season (Atlantic & East Pacific)

The 2020 hurricane season officially starts on June 1st and runs until November 30th. This year NOAA is forecasting it to be an active season, with a 60% chance of above average, 30% of near average and 10% chance of below average. Their forecast confidence is 70%.

In numbers, they forecast 13-19 named storms (climate average is 12), of which 6-10 become hurricanes (climatic average 6), 3-6 of theses major (Cat 3 or higher) (climatic average 3).

Factors affective hurricane activity include nuetral ENSO or a possible La Niña, which in general reduces windshear, warm tropical Atlantic waters and an active African monsoon, which should supply plenty of easterly waves that could develop into tropical systems.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/b...icted-for-2020

We already had two weak and short-lived tropical storms in the latter part of May (Arthur and Bertha) and there is currently an area of interest in the mid-Atlantic, however this is not forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

List of 2020 Atlantic names:

Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred.

Latest SST anomaly



Useful links

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/prod...time/index.asp
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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31-05-2020, 12:41   #2
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In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Amanda is a weak affair just making landfall along the Guatemala/San Salvador border. Heavy rain is the main threat.

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01-06-2020, 16:05   #3
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With 19 predicted you'd imagine 22 is an outside possibility. Mother nature has done some very strange things in the last few years.

What happens if they run out of names? There are only 21 in the list.
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01-06-2020, 16:27   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
With 19 predicted you'd imagine 22 is an outside possibility. Mother nature has done some very strange things in the last few years.

What happens if they run out of names? There are only 21 in the list.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005...rricane_season

The 2005 hurricane season ran out of names and started using Greek alphabet letters for the remaining storms. I'd imagine it's the same again if needed
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01-06-2020, 17:45   #5
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The remains of ex-Tropical Storm Amanda from the eastern Pacific will probably develop into a new system in the Bay of Campeche in the next few days.

Quote:
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnants of
eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, is located over the Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to move
northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche
later today or tonight where environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive to support development, and a new tropical
depression is likely to form within within the next day or so. The
system is then forecast to drift west or west-southwest over the
southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during
the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall
threat, see products from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2020 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation | Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur AR-thur | Laura LOOR-ruh
Bertha BUR-thuh | Marco MAR-koe
Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl | Nana NA-na
Dolly DAH-lee | Omar OH-mar
Edouard ed-DWARD | Paulette pawl-LET
Fay fay | Rene re-NAY
Gonzalo gohn-SAH-loh | Sally SAL-ee
Hanna HAN-uh | Teddy TEHD-ee
Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs | Vicky VIH-kee
Josephine JOH-seh-feen | Wilfred WILL-fred
Kyle KY-ull

Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in
May. The next named storm that develops this season will be
Cristobal.
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02-06-2020, 17:26   #6
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That has now formed into Tropical Storm Cristobal. It is currently forecast to move northwards through the Gulf of Mexico towards the southern US states by the weekend, possible around 55 knots by then (but highly uncertain).

Quote:
WTNT63 KNHC 021619
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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02-06-2020, 19:07   #7
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A new record, third named storm to form so early in the season. Looks like heading towards the Gulf coast at the weekend making landfall maybe Sunday or Monday, big uncertainty on track , timing and strength.

Rainfall the main issue at the moment across parts of Mexico and Central America.

Will be interesting to see how much it strengthens over water, some high SST's up near 29C










Last edited by Meteorite58; 02-06-2020 at 19:12.
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02-06-2020, 22:06   #8
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Still an awful lot of water to pass under the bridge in the next few days as Cristobal will first make landfall in eastern Mexico on Wednesday and then may or may not re-emerge over water again late Thursday/Friday.

Quote:
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the
cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive
atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday
which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is
forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should
limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern
Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for
the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
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02-06-2020, 22:15   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
A new record, third named storm to form so early in the season. Looks like heading towards the Gulf coast at the weekend making landfall maybe Sunday or Monday, big uncertainty on track , timing and strength.
The active period of the past week has been driven by a strong pulse of the MJO passing from Phase 8 to 1 (eastern Pacific towards Africa). As it moves further towards the east towards phases 2 and 3 through the rest of June we should see a lull in activity.

Current MJO phase diagram.

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06-06-2020, 10:11   #10
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Cristobal is now back out over the Gulf of Mexico after spending a couple of days over the Yucatan peninsula, where it weakened to a tropical depression. It doesn't have a typical tropical storm structure as dry air and moderate shear are affecting it. Its current intensity is 40 kt and it's moving northwards, expectwd to make landfall near New Orleans Sunday night local time. No major strengthening is expected before then, the main threat being heavy rainfall to its east and north.

Latest water vapour image.



Elsewhere, the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet, with strong shear and dry air covering most of the basins.
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07-06-2020, 13:53   #11
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Cristobal is a bit of a mess as it approaches New Orleans with that dry air wrapped right around the centre. The NHC have admitted that it doesn't have a tropical storm structure and I reckon it will be reclassified as a sub-tropical storm later. Current intensity 45 kts and they don't expect any further strengthening before landfall later tonight. Radar is showing extensive rainbands, producing rain rates of 0.5-0.75 inches per hour along the eastern gulf states.

Latest water vapour


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23-06-2020, 22:27   #12
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The disorganised sub-tropical depression located on the Gulf Stream off the east coast of the US has become a little better organised today and was named a Tropical Storm Dolly this afternoon. Current intensity 40 knots but it is moving northeastwards and over the colder side of the Gulf Stream boundary and will dissipate in 36-48 hours.

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10-07-2020, 14:36   #13
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Tropical Storm Fay has formed and will affect the New York/New England area later today/tomorrow, mostly bringing a few inches of rain and some gale-force winds. Current max winds are 45 knots and not forecast to increase any further.

This system actually started off as a small disturbance in the northeastern Gulf last week and it crossed land from the Florida panhandle to the Atlanic off South Carolina. It slowly developed over the past two days as it passed over the Gulf Stream and in an area of weak shear.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/FAY.shtml?

Quote:
Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar
indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north
and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching
the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few
hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay.

No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts,
however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant
at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes
were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800
AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland
Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These
rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New
Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Latest visible satellite image.


Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 10-07-2020 at 14:48.
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10-07-2020, 15:14   #14
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Stucture-wise Fay is very asymmetrical and and main body of deep convection (red) has already affected coastal regions. Max rainfall so far is 5.25 inches in Virginia.

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11-07-2020, 12:31   #15
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Fay is now a post-tropical depression after making landfall near Ocean City, NJ, last night. It didn't cause much of a fuss, with the highest gust recorded only 52 mph and highest sustained 39 mph. Rainfall totals were in the 2-4-inch range, with some isolated peaks above 5 inches.
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