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09-09-2019, 16:20   #76
Loughc
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RE Sryan's post I was shocked to see that on Sky News, was expecting a bit more sense from them!
Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.
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09-09-2019, 17:15   #77
lapua20grain
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Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.
I was discussing this with my wife and I think it denigrates what Met Éireann and the Met Office do as people see these reports and think it is an official forecast when it is merely the likes of the Donegal postman or Ken Ring with their usual shoite. It also erodes any confidence that people have in forecasts and the warning system.
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09-09-2019, 17:24   #78
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There is plenty of talk on weather forum that my wife is a member of (polish),
That eastern Europe to have a very hard early winter they are taking from as early as late October.
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09-09-2019, 17:47   #79
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There is plenty of talk on weather forum that my wife is a member of (polish),
That eastern Europe to have a very hard early winter they are taking from as early as late October.
Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.
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09-09-2019, 18:15   #80
ZX7R
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Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.
Basically from there version of the met office syranbruen ,
I think it's called the institute of metallurgy and water resources,each of there county area have a local department and would do forecast for there area.
Then all data collected and forward to the central head department.
As with any forum everyone can have a say
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11-09-2019, 07:31   #81
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Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.

I live in Slovakia now and been involved in almost all social media weather forums and there is no noise at all about severe cold arriving early. Perhaps its down to the wording from Accuweather autumn forecast that predicts early easterly shots as far west as Berlin and Warsaw is also included in wording. About winter 2010/11, it was only marginally colder then 1981/2010 average, by far colder were even 2002/03 and 2005/06 here even 2016/17 was colder then 2010/11.
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11-09-2019, 09:22   #82
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Snow warning for large parts of Norway for this weekend. Warnings of 10-20cm "new snow" in the mountains and roads over them.



The Hard Border with their EU neighbours thankfully keeps the snow out of Sweden.
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11-09-2019, 09:26   #83
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Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.
Jaysus I would have said that about Sky News 10 years ago. I don't have it anymore but it was so tabloid back then.
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13-09-2019, 20:02   #84
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BBC winter weather forecast from the 1980s:



'Much more misery to come'. Different times!
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13-09-2019, 22:44   #85
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BBC winter weather forecast from the 1980s:



'Much more misery to come'. Different times!
as a child back then, watching that very forecast live, I had no idea how good we had it!
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14-09-2019, 10:21   #86
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Don't forget this from the early 90s too

I love when he says "we won't see those for a long time here"

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14-09-2019, 11:21   #87
ZX7R
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I live in Slovakia now and been involved in almost all social media weather forums and there is no noise at all about severe cold arriving early. Perhaps its down to the wording from Accuweather autumn forecast that predicts early easterly shots as far west as Berlin and Warsaw is also included in wording. About winter 2010/11, it was only marginally colder then 1981/2010 average, by far colder were even 2002/03 and 2005/06 here even 2016/17 was colder then 2010/11.
I was only forwarding what my wife translated for me hopefully I will learn to read there language with time as we will be moving to her part of Poland to live next June....
Can't wait to go
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14-09-2019, 18:02   #88
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As 2019-20 is likely to be a transitional winter in terms of QBO from west to easterly, here's a quick reanalysis of similar winters of the past. Two things of note:

1. The anomalous Aleutian High in the North Pacific which is usually associated with warmer than average SSTs as is the case in 2019.

2. Relative above average heights over Greenland with the jet stream on a southerly track through Europe. Definite -NAO signal here which goes along with the increased probability of -NAO during 2019-20 as a result of North Atlantic SSTs.



Coincidental how the QBO data features similar results to some teleconnections or drivers in 2019. What's also of note I see is how all the years were either ENSO neutral or featured a La Niña event with none of them featuring an El Niño event - 2019/20 is likely to be ENSO neutral right now.
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14-09-2019, 18:10   #89
 
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What does all of that mean in English?
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14-09-2019, 18:22   #90
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Say it again
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