General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

Water John · 12-01-2020 8:12pm

Any of the bloggers give constituency predictions yet?

is_that_so · 12-01-2020 8:15pm

Water John wrote: »

Any of the bloggers give constituency predictions yet?

Adrian Kavanagh is usually worth a look when it's called. We will really miss Noel Whelan

No reason why posters here can't offer insights on their constituency.

L1011 · 12-01-2020 8:18pm

Water John wrote: »

Any of the bloggers give constituency predictions yet?

Adrian Kavanagh, for all the potential flaws I see he's the only one with constituency knowledge. He under estimated small parties last time out in the constituency by constituency analysis however

Water John · 12-01-2020 8:30pm

Well here goes on the two near me. Cork South West, could see Christy O'Sullivan FF elected maybe take Margaret O'Mahony's seat. Michael Collins Ind has worked hard and should hold his seat. Could FG end up with no seat? Collins would be of FG stock. Interesting fun piece on this is Christy O'Sullivan is running against his girl friend Holly Cairns, Social Democrats.
FF 2 Ind 1

Cork North West. I think the two Moynihans FF will make it. Minister Michael Creed might get a fright from his running mate John Paul O'Shea, who did well as an Ind in the last GE.
FF 2 FG 1

However if national polls show FF slipping then both constituencies could change.

is_that_so · 12-01-2020 8:34pm

Louth should be one each for FF, FG and SF and then three into two from SF, FG and Labour. Could well be as you were but Nash of Labour might upset things.

Meath West will be interesting with FF and FG getting two and then there's what happens with Tobin v SF. Will split that vote and both may lose out. FG might fancy they can get a second or will a Green emerge?

Meath East should be unchanged with two FG ministers and one FF.

Water John · 12-01-2020 8:37pm

I presume we'll have a poll next Sunday. If the tide is going out for any party or group it's hard to fight against it.

L1011 · 12-01-2020 8:38pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Louth should be one each for FF, FG and SF and then three into two from SF, FG and Labour. Could well be as you were but Nash of Labour might upset things.

There is zero chance of SF holding two without Adams

L1011 · 12-01-2020 8:39pm

Water John wrote: »

I presume we'll have a poll next Sunday. If the tide is going out for any party or group it's hard to fight against it.

Saturday Indo or Times and another polling firm on Sunday is most likely

is_that_so · 12-01-2020 8:51pm

L1011 wrote: »

There is zero chance of SF holding two without Adams

Oh, I don't think they will. Munster is the "veteran" and I would be looking at Nash as more likely, even though that would be 3 TDs in the southern end of the constituency. If FF had a better 2nd candidate they might lose both.

An Ciarraioch · 12-01-2020 9:00pm

Kerry:

The Healy-Raes got 39% of the vote in 2016, so even allowing for some slippage, the two of them should both still be elected. Brendan Griffin (FG) has a reasonably secure base in Mid and West Kerry, so appears safe, and Fianna Fáil are also guaranteed one, even if John Brassil and Norma Foley are drawing on the same pool of voters. That leaves the final seat between FF2, FG2 (Mike Kennelly) and Sinn Féin - who would have been favourites in the Ferris era, but Pa Daly is a weak candidate, even within Tralee itself. For now, I'll predict FG 2, FF 1, Healy-Rae 2, but if Niall Kelliher is added by FF, he could sneak in, given his Killarney and East Kerry strongholds.

tobsey · 12-01-2020 9:23pm

I’m starting to feel like my kids did before Christmas

Sierra Oscar · 12-01-2020 11:28pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I can see a FG/Labour coalition.

The Greens won't go in with FF after what happened to them last time and id be concerned they will screw around with crucial transport projects like metro and road schemes that should be underway now.

It's hard to see any party going in with Fine Gael if they loose a chunk of seats. It'll be interpreted as the electorate having voted to ditch them.

I suspect FG won't fight too hard to enter Government if they have a net loss of seats.

beggars_bush · 13-01-2020 12:26am

You'd presume that SF will be talking up their return to stormont

markodaly · 13-01-2020 12:37am

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

What do you mean by "government"? If you're suggesting a state body or government department should never hire IT staff, that would be stupid. If by "government" you mean "cabinet" then you'd be correct, micromanaging on that level would be madness.

Government as in the executive branch, the cabinet.

The total allocation is irrelevant to the issue that the HSE didn't have sufficient IT staff resources to both run the business and update Windows, so they chose to prioritise running the business. Then they spent the scandalous sum of 1.1m euro on extended support instead :rolleyes:

In other words, its an issue for the HSE CIO or whomever to sort out, not Leo or Eoghan Murphy.

theguzman · 13-01-2020 2:45am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Kerry:

The Healy-Raes got 39% of the vote in 2016, so even allowing for some slippage, the two of them should both still be elected. Brendan Griffin (FG) has a reasonably secure base in Mid and West Kerry, so appears safe, and Fianna Fáil are also guaranteed one, even if John Brassil and Norma Foley are drawing on the same pool of voters. That leaves the final seat between FF2, FG2 (Mike Kennelly) and Sinn Féin - who would have been favourites in the Ferris era, but Pa Daly is a weak candidate, even within Tralee itself. For now, I'll predict FG 2, FF 1, Healy-Rae 2, but if Niall Kelliher is added by FF, he could sneak in, given his Killarney and East Kerry strongholds.

As above, FG to gain from Sinn Fein, Michael Healy-Rae to suffer a large decline after the antics of his sons and their compo claim off the local GAA club. Danny Rae to decline also for his buffonery but both still be comfortably elected.

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 11:47am

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

What do you mean by "government"? If you're suggesting a state body or government department should never hire IT staff, that would be stupid. If by "government" you mean "cabinet" then you'd be correct, micromanaging on that level would be madness.

The total allocation is irrelevant to the issue that the HSE didn't have sufficient IT staff resources to both run the business and update Windows, so they chose to prioritise running the business. Then they spent the scandalous sum of 1.1m euro on extended support instead :rolleyes:

Is that scandalous or not?
If 100,000 people work for the HSE (70,000 directly and 35,000 funded by the HSE but another name on the paycheck) is a €11 each -fine for the extended support or an unimaginable ripoff (I genuinely don't know by the way).

10000maniacs · 13-01-2020 12:26pm

The gloves are off now this morning. RTE are hitting Fianna Fail with "You put the country into receivership in 2010" line. And it's virtually impossible for FF to respond to that. They need to come up with better answers to that than "It was a global event".
Also, FG cannot really be blamed for the housing crisis either. The population has increased by a million in the last 30 years and Fianna Fail threw gasoline on the situation by selling off a huge percentage of social housing with their "Right to buy" scheme. In the meanwhile land prices in the country have increased exponentially. Fianna Fail broke it, and no government would have the resources to fix it in 2020.

Tea Shock · 13-01-2020 12:30pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

The gloves are off now this morning. RTE are hitting Fianna Fail with "You put the country into receivership in 2010" line. And it's virtually impossible for FF to respond to that. They need to come up with better answers to that than "It was a global event".
Also, FG cannot really be blamed for the housing crisis either. The population has increased by a million in the last 30 years and Fianna Fail threw gasoline on the situation by selling off a huge percentage of social housing with their "Right to buy" scheme. In the meanwhile land prices in the country have increased exponentially. Fianna Fail broke it, and no government would have the resources to fix it in 2020.

Population has actually increased by a million in 18 years. i.e. since the time a certain minister for health called Michael Martin created the HSE!

Scoundrel · 13-01-2020 12:38pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

The gloves are off now this morning. RTE are hitting Fianna Fail with "You put the country into receivership in 2010" line.

How much longer is that going to fly for now? I mean FG have been in government for 9 years now they have to take ownership of some of the countries problems.

10000maniacs · 13-01-2020 12:42pm

Scoundrel wrote: »

How much longer is that going to fly for now? I mean FG have been in government for 9 years now they have to take ownership of some off the countries problems.

They need to come up with more technical answers than "It was a global event" and make it sound convincing. A lot of people suffered under Fianna Fail and these are the people who need convincing.

13-01-2020 12:44pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

Population has actually increased by a million in 18 years. i.e. since the time a certain minister for health called Michael Martin created the HSE!

do you remember the rant Brendan gleeson did on the late late about Martin and his HSE!! I think GOVT had it removed as gleeson was so well liked.

this relates to it but to hear him is priceless, he's such a cool guy.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/bravo-to-you-brendan-as-straight-talk-is-the-healthy-way-forward-26409895.html

Scoundrel · 13-01-2020 12:44pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

They need to come up with more technical answers than "It was a global event" and make it sound convincing. A lot of people suffered under Fianna Fail and these are the people who need convincing.

True a sincere sounding apology for mistakes made would probably be a better approach

seamus · 13-01-2020 12:47pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

Also, FG cannot really be blamed for the housing crisis either.

Well, yes and no. There are obviously a lot of factors outside of their control, things that started happening well before the took the reins.

They took a "hands-off" approach to let the market sort itself out. I supported such an approach at the time, and the predictions they made at the time about when the market would begin to self-normalise, have basically been bang on the money. Leave it alone for another 12 months and it will.

But their predictions didn't factor in a second mini-boom and with it the exceptional jump in immigration fueled by jobs growths, and the housing problems that brings with it.

And rather than react, they continued the "wait and see" approach. They should have been going infrastructure mad by the of 2015, borrowing as much as possible. The NBP should be half-built already, not waiting to break ground. They should have been using capital funding to build housing that was part private, part public; filling in the gaps that the private market wouldn't.

If they had been funding the creation of just 1,000 new public units a year since 2015, we wouldn't have a homeless crisis and the "free" market would be uninterrupted. Hinsight is 20:20, but the civil service is also full of experts who can forecast these things to a general level.

While I applauded (and still do to a certain extent) FG's "steady hand at the wheel" approach that brought the country out of FF's mess, it's their dogged insistence on sticking to that approach and not taking any consequential actions, that they must be criticised for.

"Know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em".

It seems we have one party in FF who don't understand the meaning of the word "moderation" and can't help but launch headfirst into whatever money burning scheme they can find. And we have in FG a party who are frozen by inaction and unwilling or unable to take calculated risks when it's needed.

10000maniacs · 13-01-2020 1:12pm

seamus wrote: »

If they had been funding the creation of just 1,000 new public units a year since 2015, we wouldn't have a homeless crisis and the "free" market would be uninterrupted.

Yes but those 1000 houses will cost over €0.3 Billion a year, more if those 1000 houses are in Dublin.
That is unaffordable to a country of our means. We are not a super rich country that has a money tree in the back garden.

LuckyLloyd · 13-01-2020 1:24pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yes but those 1000 houses will cost over €0.3 Billion a year, more if those 1000 houses are in Dublin.
That is unaffordable to a country of our means. We are not a super rich country that has a money tree in the back garden.

Must be affordable when compared to the cost of emergency housing and HAP. A wise investment almost.

10000maniacs · 13-01-2020 1:32pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Must be affordable when compared to the cost of emergency housing and HAP. A wise investment almost.

That could possibly be true at a stretch if the tenants did not have the right to buy the property at a 60% discount after a few years.
There is so much wrong with social housing in Ireland. The right to buy scheme should be totally scrapped. All social housing should be kept in the social housing pool forever. And if financial circumstances improve for the tenants to the point where they could afford to get their own place, the house should be given over to someone who needs it more.

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 1:54pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

That could possibly be true at a stretch if the tenants did not have the right to buy the property at a 60% discount after a few years.
There is so much wrong with social housing in Ireland. The right to buy scheme should be totally scrapped. All social housing should be kept in the social housing pool forever. And if financial circumstances improve for the tenants to the point where they could afford to get their own place, the house should be given over to someone who needs it more.

And social housing should be available at an income linked rate to the barrister, the bookkeeper , the bricklayer and the bus driver and we should all remember that a characteristic of the working class is work!

10000maniacs · 13-01-2020 2:00pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

And social housing should be available at an income linked rate to the barrister, the bookkeeper , the bricklayer and the bus driver and we should all remember that a characteristic of the working class is work!

Having said that, 1 million people have immigrated to Ireland in the last 18 years and that is great if all these people are self starting and can look after themselves, but this has proved not to be the case in many circumstances.
And they all need to be housed regardless putting huge pressure on social housing.

marieholmfan · 13-01-2020 2:07pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

Having said that, 1 million people have immigrated to Ireland in the last 18 years and that is great if all these people are self starting and can look after themselves, but this has proved not to be the case in many circumstances.
And they all need to be housed regardless putting huge pressure on social housing.

Wow that's a tough one for me because I do believe that if you come from Scotland or Slovenia or even Sierra Leone and you work all your life and raise your kids you should be treated the same as everyone else but I don't want the whole world's wasters here on top of our own (who we are stuck with).

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 2:12pm

Scoundrel wrote: »

How much longer is that going to fly for now? I mean FG have been in government for 9 years now they have to take ownership of some of the countries problems.

You can really never tell what voters will latch onto. I think their campaign needs to be more about what they will do better otherwise if they try to put in digs it will be "remember 2010".

General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

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