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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Sorry to burst the bubble folks but these kind of charts appear at least once a year when theres a warm plume in FI. When it comes to forecasting thunderstorms in Ireland and all the factors needed to be in the right place, I don't bat an eyelid for anything further than +72hrs. This thread should really be confined to that in all honesty. Good signals for the warmth to start off with, lets go with that in the normal thread and come back here when we get a more accurate time frame.

    Don't think anyone is getting their hopes up just yet, too far out. Cool to see it modelled though and the good thing is hopefully it'll be warm even if we don't manage to get any storms out of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    MidMan25 wrote: »
    hopefully it'll be warm and we don't manage to get any storms out of it.

    Agreed
    ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    85082375-FCA3-40-AA-8-ECA-919-F942-D45-EF.png

    Day 4 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 19:56 UTC Thu 20 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Longwave trough will linger over the Atlantic close to western Europe on Sunday, the southerly flow on its forward flank encouraging advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the Spanish Plateau towards southern Britain by Sunday night.


    Ahead of this, an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is possible during Sunday afternoon / early evening in a zone from Cen S England / S + W Midlands / Wales. However, despite profiles exhibiting reasonable speed and directional shear to aid organisation, one or more warm noses may significantly restrict cloud depth and so this is risk is treated with quite a low probability for now. A few showers are also likely in N and W Scotland, but with very little lightning expected.

    However, main interest is during Sunday night. By Sunday evening, frontal rain will likely already be affecting parts of SW England and Ireland, and increasingly so across Wales and the Midlands - behind which advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass will occur during the overnight hours. A lead shortwave impulse in the strong southerly flow aloft will aid ascent, coupled with isentropic upglide as the EML arrives, to release the increasing amount of mid-level instability.
    With time, scattered elevated thunderstorms - initially over parts of SW England / S Wales / S Ireland - will become more numerous and drift northwards as the night progresses. Strong deep layer shear should help thunderstorm complexes to grow upscale into an MCS (mesoscale convective system), particularly over Wales and the Midlands after midnight and then perhaps across northern England towards the latter stages of the night.

    This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - however destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is very likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are expected in future outlooks.

    A few interesting words there for Sunday Night.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Going to be very difficult forecasting thunderstorm locations and rainfall amounts and where convection might occur with complex charts like these.

    Can expect forecasts to be changing right up to nowcasting.

    Worth giving it a shot though, won't learn otherwise, right or wrong it is all learning and about honing the skills !

    eO3Yz9A.gif


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    An area of interest will possibly be along the SW coasts late Sat night early Sun morning and perhaps up along the W , maybe coming ashore as well. Not sure at this stage, will need to see tomorrow's charts.

    Sunday perhaps Munster in the morning/ afternoon early evening and could be seeing thunderstorms in the SE, E and and Northern counties later Sunday into Monday . Could be some heavy falls of rain in places Sun and early monday morning along the Eastern side of the country more towards the coasts. Could be seeing thunderstorms migrate across the Irish sea and homegrown storms pop up. Will see.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Worth noting that ICON 18Z showing widespread thunderstorms spreading up from the S later Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Showing a lot of rain Sunday and becoming heavy overnight into Monday, Showing high rainfall totals along parts of the S / SE.

    Showing up to 15C at 05.00 with a 14C Dp in parts.

    The Jet aiding DLS.

    ARPEGE 12Z showing high CAPE readings at this stage for the same timeframe and big rainfall totals for parts. Will need to see further charts to have a better insight.



    DKaJlfw.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 18Z just rolling out and showing plenty of CAPE late Sunday into Monday moving up over the country which would tally with what the ICON 18Z is predicting.

    Showing DP of 15C at 04.00

    Will see how tomorrow's charts compare.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23

    lqQs5jf.png


    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 07:50 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Longwave trough will linger over the Atlantic close to western Europe on Sunday, the southerly flow on its forward flank encouraging advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the Spanish Plateau towards southern Britain by Sunday night.


    Ahead of this, an isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm is possible during Sunday afternoon / early evening in a zone from Cen S England / S + W Midlands / Wales. However, despite profiles exhibiting reasonable speed and directional shear to aid organisation, one or more warm noses may significantly restrict cloud depth and so the risk of lightning is treated with quite a low probability for now. In fact it is probably more likely that outbreaks of largely dynamic rain will be falling from medium-level cloud over Wales / Midlands, associated with the warm front slowly lifting northward. A few showers are also likely in N and W Scotland, but with very little lightning expected.

    Main thunderstorm interest is during Sunday night. By Sunday evening, frontal rain will likely already be affecting parts of SW England, Wales, W Midlands and Ireland - behind which advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass will occur during the overnight hours. A lead shortwave impulse in the strong southerly flow aloft will aid ascent, coupled with isentropic upglide as the EML arrives. MLCAPE values of 500-1,000 J/kg are expected, this instability being released through the course of the night.

    With time, scattered elevated thunderstorms - initially over parts of SW England / S Wales / Celtic Sea / S Ireland - will become more numerous and drift north/northwestwards as the night progresses. Strong deep layer shear should help thunderstorm complexes to grow upscale into an MCS (mesoscale convective system), as coverage continues to expand eastwards across northern England during the early hours of Monday. Given the magnitude of CAPE/shear, lightning will be very frequent at times, accompanied by the threat of hail, gusty winds and locally very heavy rain.

    This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - however destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. However, provided guidance continues to remain relatively consistent, upgrades to higher threat levels are possible in future outlooks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Interesting outlook for overnight Sunday there alright, it could get very interesting over Wexford Waterford Kilkenny and up into the Wicklow area!
    Theres a cacophony of ingredients coming together rarely seen


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    5tpkZXJ.png

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 23 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 06:19 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    On Saturday morning there is a very low risk of an isolated lightning strike near Shetland. Then late on Saturday night, a low risk of lightning associated with any embedded weak convection within the frontal rain over SW Ireland.




    Lightning activity might stay offshore or just up along the SW/W coast Sat night/ early Sunday morning I'm thinking.



    4rWymib.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models showing an impressive amount of CAPE with heavy rain and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into the evening.

    Areas of convergence aiding convection

    Should have a wide are getting into the 20's and showing up to 22C at present

    Dps generally 14-15C, ECM showing parts of the E with Dp at 17C

    ARPEGE and ICON more widespread thunderstorms, ECM showing more SE, E and midlands.


    9rZcGQJ.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The 12z gfs is perfection for classic bay of biscay storms moving North on Wednesday evening...it's coming folks!!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing a lot of CAPE available on Monday during the day / early evening , could lead to some big thunderstorms. The W , midlands and along the SE, E, NE coastal counties showing up as an area to keep a close eye on.


    uknvgQ0.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z is showing some extraordinary high CAPE readings Thurs, FRi and Sat. into the thousands of J/kg. I have never seen such high readings over Ireland.

    Huge plume of warm moist air and the jet is set to be close by/ over us offering big shear readings and add the high diurnal temperatures.......

    The model is currently not showing huge precipitation but that is a long way off. I would think this will test even the best computer models. Eyes peeled .


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Stevie Muscular Top


    Some of the best Thunderstorms in memory came from Biscay, those of use old enough to remember actual Bad Thunderstorms of the Mid - late 80's, at least my memory tells me they came from there because I remember frequent reference to Biscay on the Weather forecast.

    I only thought about this the other day, it's a long time since I saw a lightning storm and I realise there are people here probably who never saw one and it's an incredible sight.

    Tonnes of lighting and no thunder, some amazing colours and some amazing patterns.

    Here's the key signs, dark reddish orange skies, that's the key sign, if you see this then there's a high chance of a good Thunderstorm an actual real one not a few flashes and bangs but one that could last several hours.

    That is what I remember of the good O'l storms of the 80's and after the long hot Summer of 1995. The Thunder would be rumbling for hours before it came then it would take hours to pass over and hours again before it couldn't be heard. Thunder that would rattle the house and deafening Rain and Hail.

    Here's hoping !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Some of the best Thunderstorms in memory came from Biscay, those of use old enough to remember actual Bad Thunderstorms of the Mid - late 80's, at least my memory tells me they came from there because I remember frequent reference to Biscay on the Weather forecast.

    I only thought about this the other day, it's a long time since I saw a lightning storm and I realise there are people here probably who never saw one and it's an incredible sight.

    Tonnes of lighting and no thunder, some amazing colours and some amazing patterns.

    Here's the key signs, dark reddish orange skies, that's the key sign, if you see this then there's a high chance of a good Thunderstorm an actual real one not a few flashes and bangs but one that could last several hours.

    That is what I remember of the good O'l storms of the 80's and after the long hot Summer of 1995. The Thunder would be rumbling for hours before it came then it would take hours to pass over and hours again before it couldn't be heard. Thunder that would rattle the house and deafening Rain and Hail.

    Here's hoping !

    Does nobody remember August 2000. The thunder and lightning lasted for ages in Dublin. It was the best thunderstorm I have witnessed ( not old enough to remember the 1985 one which people always reference on here). There were some good ones in the 90s too which I vaguely remember


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    esposito wrote: »
    Does nobody remember August 2000. The thunder and lightning lasted for ages in Dublin. It was the best thunderstorm I have witnessed ( not old enough to remember the 1985 one which people always reference on here). There were some good ones in the 90s too which I vaguely remember

    The August 2000 weather bulletin makes reference of a 10cm hail storm in Skerries, Dublin on 20 August 2000. I have yet to see a proper hail storm here.

    https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/monsums/clim-2000-Aug.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    We had severe storms across the South last year so it's not as if we haven't seen biscay storms since the 80s. Local enough to Cork last year maybe.
    Anyway excitement building!!


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ Stevie Muscular Top


    esposito wrote: »
    Does nobody remember August 2000. The thunder and lightning lasted for ages in Dublin. It was the best thunderstorm I have witnessed ( not old enough to remember the 1985 one which people always reference on here). There were some good ones in the 90s too which I vaguely remember

    Yes I think I might, was that when it was Snowing in October too and lasted about 3 days ? Or maybe not 3 days all in one but a series of storms over 3 days.

    That was a good one alright but on a scale of severe it was not actually that bad.

    I was 5 in 1985 and while it would be vague in my memory I do remember clearly ones after this, 85-88 were pretty active years. And even after this were a couple of good ones.

    I also remember a lot more lightning storms , I think also called dry lightning where there is no thunder, they can offer spectacular shows.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    We had severe storms across the South last year so it's not as if we haven't seen biscay storms since the 80s. Local enough to Cork last year maybe.
    Anyway excitement building!!

    Had them in South Tipp as well seemingly but I slept through it!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Yes I think I might, was that when it was Snowing in October too and lasted about 3 days ? Or maybe not 3 days all in one but a series of storms over 3 days.

    That was a good one alright but on a scale of severe it was not actually that bad.

    I was 5 in 1985 and while it would be vague in my memory I do remember clearly ones after this, 85-88 were pretty active years. And even after this were a couple of good ones.

    I also remember a lot more lightning storms , I think also called dry lightning where there is no thunder, they can offer spectacular shows.

    They sure can. I remember being in Orlando in 2008 and there was a spectacular electrical storm with no thunder. I’m sure it’s quite common there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    We had severe storms across the South last year so it's not as if we haven't seen biscay storms since the 80s. Local enough to Cork last year maybe.
    Anyway excitement building!!

    Remember that well and I was in Dublin
    Walked home from town that night( couldn't get a taxi) could see lightning flashing away at the top of what looked an amazing anvil cloud. I think That storm was around kilkenny and I could see it from south Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Let's not forget Iancar29's spectacular shot of last year's light show.
    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Well what a show last night it was for many. Certainly one of the best cluster of storms to cover a good portion of the country

    Here was the view I managed to catch from Howth summit.
    451795.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,151 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    esposito wrote: »
    Some of the best Thunderstorms in memory came from Biscay, those of use old enough to remember actual Bad Thunderstorms of the Mid - late 80's, at least my memory tells me they came from there because I remember frequent reference to Biscay on the Weather forecast.

    I only thought about this the other day, it's a long time since I saw a lightning storm and I realise there are people here probably who never saw one and it's an incredible sight.

    Tonnes of lighting and no thunder, some amazing colours and some amazing patterns.

    Here's the key signs, dark reddish orange skies, that's the key sign, if you see this then there's a high chance of a good Thunderstorm an actual real one not a few flashes and bangs but one that could last several hours.

    That is what I remember of the good O'l storms of the 80's and after the long hot Summer of 1995. The Thunder would be rumbling for hours before it came then it would take hours to pass over and hours again before it couldn't be heard. Thunder that would rattle the house and deafening Rain and Hail.

    Here's hoping !

    Does nobody remember August 2000. The thunder and lightning lasted for ages in Dublin. It was the best thunderstorm I have witnessed ( not old enough to remember the 1985 one which people always reference on here). There were some good ones in the 90s too which I vaguely remember

    I remember the 2000 storm well. I remember driving back from northern Ireland and the lightning started around 3pm and continued for nearly 12 hours.

    I was best man the next day at my brother's wedding and we had a practice in the church the night before to some of the most incredible thunder and lightning imaginable.

    At the wedding reception next day, there were none of the expected congratulatory fax messages because the fax machine took a direct hit during the storm!

    We're also approaching the 33rd anniversary of the 1986 Dublin thunderstorm. I was a teenager then and remember being in Croke Park for the Simple Minds Concert and the overhead lightning was an incredible accompanyment to an amazing gig!

    That's my abiding memory of the 80's: the music and the storms were legendary!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 18Z showing possibilities of a big thunderstorm day on Monday, differing in location for best CAPE values to the ECM.

    Tomorrows charts will hopefully give more clarity.


    mq5ZtIE.png

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  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭smokie72


    esposito wrote: »
    Does nobody remember August 2000. The thunder and lightning lasted for ages in Dublin. It was the best thunderstorm I have witnessed ( not old enough to remember the 1985 one which people always reference on here). There were some good ones in the 90s too which I vaguely remember

    If I remember it was Friday 25th August 2000. I was working in security on a industrial estate for the summer. The hut I was in was about 8ft by 6 with glass all around. Very sticky and humid day. It kicked off that afternoon with some great fork lightning and very brief intense showers...proper deluges...cycled home that evening and my sister was using my computer :eek: luckily it was ok but my modem(dial up) was fryed:mad:


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Convection building well off the SW coasts produce a few sferics, hard to know if this will get close to the coasts overnight.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Tomorrow evening looking potentially quite entertaining

    aromehd-1-25-0.png?23-00


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Very often there is a threat of thunderstorms in the forecast with loads of chats and excitement here on the boards ends up with disappointment. Seeing charts with Cape doesn’t mean an awful lot to me. It is often the best thunderstorms occur away from the highest Cape indication. I see charts posted by Meteorite showing the highest Cape over the middle of Co. Limerick.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    I see lightning detection showing up on met earann radar map, probably a false return though..


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