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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mammatus in Dublin 16 atm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Threatening clouds coming over clondalkin can see rain in dostance


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    [IMG][/img]9mBuWJ9.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 10,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Would love to see those clouds in real life.
    Great photo.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,151 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Parameters there for some very heavy showers tomorrow, some of hail. Loads of Low level shear and deep layer shear with the jet firing strongly over us, areas of convergence doing it's bit also. With all that shear would think funnels could be spotted. Will be interesting to see how the thunderstorms develop. The more sunny breaks that occur the better chance of development I would think.

    convectiveweather.co.uk are quite gung ho, see next post.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Edit: I see PukkaStukka's post above with this link as well , snap!

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    Day 2 Convective Outlook: Sun 16 Jun 2019


    LOW
    SLGT
    MDT
    HIGH
    SVR
    What do these risk levels mean?
    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 16 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 22:55 UTC Sat 15 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    An increasingly elongated upper low will reside to the west of Ireland, creating strong southwest flow aloft over the British Isles. Cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating of a reasonably moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 10-13C) will yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday and through the afternoon / early evening, particularly across N / NE Scotland, the Midlands into northern / eastern England, and across the Republic of Ireland and into Northern Ireland.


    ... SCOTLAND ...
    For Scotland, shear will tend to weaken by the time the majority of deep convection occurs, and so a more "pulse type" mode is expected. Nonetheless, given cold air aloft and the depth of convection likely to be deepest here than elsewhere in the British Isles, some small hail will be possible from the most intense cells, and perhaps a couple of funnel clouds where showers/storms develop over zones of low-level wind convergence which will likely develop during the afternoon hours around the Moray Firth coastline. Slower storm motion here may result in some localised surface water issues.

    ... ENGLAND ...
    Elsewhere, a strongly-sheared environment is expected allowing updrafts to become longer-lived and cells somewhat organised as they track generally to the northeast. A couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible across England, associated with a pre-frontal trough early afternoon, and then perhaps the approaching warm front late afternoon / early evening. The most intense cells, including the potential for a supercell, may produce hail close to 2cm in diameter. Low-level winds will be a little more backed as storms approaching the east coast, and so here would be the best potential for an isolated tornado.

    ... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND ...
    Perhaps the best overlap of favourable conditions for organised thunderstorms (in the British Isles) will exist over Ireland, although the forecast evolution here is less-clear due to a potentially messy precipitation mode as a new Atlantic frontal system approaches. Assuming sufficient cloud breaks and surface heating can occur, then scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may affect parts of N / NW Republic of Ireland initially - early afternoon - spreading northeastwards across Northern Ireland with time, with perhaps a second round developing near Limerick and environs later in the afternoon / early evening as the left exit of the approaching mid-level jet streak overspreads the area - these then migrating northeast across the northern half of Leinster during the evening hours.
    A couple of supercells will be possible, with the potential for hail up to 2cm in diameter, and perhaps a tornado where low-level winds become locally backed, enhancing the low-level shear and SREH. Due to limited confidence in forecast evolution, have refrained from issuing a SVR for now.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A bit of a split in the models with regards to how much rain could potentially fall . AROME is usually quite good in these situations and not one to overplay it . Could possibly see warnings come into effect yet, some very heavy rain showing up, perhaps 20 to 30mm in places in 8 hrs or so , maybe more localized rather than over large areas.

    The charts in the morning will be interesting.

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    The Jet tomorrow


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Will be interesting to see if thunderstorms break out around limerick later in the afternoon ( or a bit before it in Kerry ) heading in a NE'ly / N'ly direction as mentioned by convectiveweather.co.uk

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Kicking off around Limerick.. wonder will the capital get any action this eve.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,407 ✭✭✭Trebor176


    Heavy shower now in Clondalkin. The wind has picked up too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Teeming DN22


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Not much in the way of thunderstorms, heavy torrential rain yes and haven't seen any reports of funnels or tornadoes.

    That is some rain going through Northern counties.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    TORRO issued a convective discussion today....

    https://twitter.com/TorroUK/status/1140275121820770305


  • Registered Users Posts: 96 ✭✭morphman


    Epic thunderstorm here earlier today


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    morphman wrote: »
    Epic thunderstorm here earlier today

    Where was that morphman ?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-17

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    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 21:02 UTC Sun 16 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    Upper low will linger close to NW Scotland during Monday, placing the British Isles under a reasonably strong southwesterly flow aloft. A cold pool will swing northeast across Northern Ireland and Scotland, steepening mid-level lapse rates and coinciding with diurnal heating to yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE.


    Some longer spells of rain may affect the Northern Isles and northwest Scotland for a time, but elsewhere scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to form in an environment with 30-40kts DLS. This should help tilt updrafts allowing cells to become fairly long-lasting, with some line segments at times. A low-topped supercell may also be possible, along with hail up to 1.5cm diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado. Shear is greatest towards the south and east, and so the Hebrides are more likely to have rather "pulse type" convection instead.

    Some sporadic lightning will be possible almost anywhere across Scotland and Northern Ireland, so rather difficult to pin-point specific areas for a SLGT - but a blend of model guidance, coupled with a favourable ingredients-based overlap of convergence / instability / shear would suggest a slightly higher risk of lightning in N + E Scotland, and parts of Northern Ireland (though confidence in this aspect is somewhat limited). That said, there is the potential for a PVA lobe to drift towards western Scotland during the second half of the afternoon, which may provide sufficient forcing for increased lightning activity here also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    morphman wrote: »
    Epic thunderstorm here earlier today

    Is this top secret that you can't tell us where this epic event took place


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The W and NW could be seeing thunderstorm activity from morning and into the early afternoon as it migrates from the W to the NW towards evening.

    Maybe the odd thundery shower showing up elsewhere also, temperatures should be better tomorrow with clearer spells aiding convection.

    ECM showing a lot of CAPE available with low level shear and ample deep level shear to aid convection producing some very heavy showers again, hail possible being under the coldest part of the upper cool pool. Models at this stage showing more potential than today for thunderstorm activity from the Midwest, NW and N counties. Will see.

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    Convergence in the NW becoming fresh from morning.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Convective weather updated their chart this morning and extends the slight area more into the NW .


  • Registered Users Posts: 96 ✭✭morphman


    Where was that morphman ?


    Strokestown, Roscommon.
    Hon the rossies


  • Registered Users Posts: 799 ✭✭✭wowzer


    Pretty impressive cloud forming over Dublin city at 12.30 today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Had a few rumbles of thunder near Athlone with very impressive shelf cloud yesterday afternoon. Buckets of rain after the rumbles. Was nice :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Scratching my head wondering why we didnt see more sferics in the above mentioned areas of interest today. Tweeted Convectiveweather.co.uk and they responded below.


    https://twitter.com/Meteorite58/status/1140739286930792448

    https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1140741452051505152


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    A bit like here yesterday Meteorite with the squall. Rainfall rates went waaaay off the scale with very gusty winds, was very convective yet there wasn’t one flash of lightning.

    You’d think with all that energy there would have been sparks.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pad199207 wrote: »
    A bit like here yesterday Meteorite with the squall. Rainfall rates went waaaay off the scale with very gusty winds, was very convective yet there wasn’t one flash of lightning.

    You’d think with all that energy there would have been sparks.


    Strange one, must study the upper layers a bit more and get a better handle on the soundings :) .

    No rain here but great cloudscapes with blue sky background.


    A lot of discussion on the potential for big storms in the S of the UK tomorrow and into Weds, plume coming up out of France. Might get to see some good footage.


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