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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 268 43.86%
No impact 137 22.42%
Global warming is here to stay 107 17.51%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 99 16.20%
Voters: 611. You may not vote on this poll

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01-07-2019, 05:19   #781
Mad_Lad
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During the Maunder Minimum , extreme weather events were recorded all over the world.

Who knows the effects deep space radiation/cosmic rays etc may also have on the earth, it's a fragile place for sure.

A sphere spinning around the sun , spinning around in the milky way galaxy which is also spinning around etc, it's all really remarkable when you think about it and here we are !

No doubt this type of weather event will become more and more common as solar minimum continues.
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01-07-2019, 10:01   #782
dolanbaker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad_Lad View Post
Wow! Now that's what I call freak weather!


Whether events like this are really more frequent, or simply down to the global access to the information is debatable(before the internet and phones with video cameras, much of these events would have gone unreported, or the news if it wouldn't have been so far reacting).
An interesting test of the solar minimum weather theory will come this winter, 2010 was an extreme year with a cold January and a cold November, will 2020 exhibit a similar pattern?
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01-07-2019, 10:12   #783
silverharp
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what ways are used to track solar "output" apart from sunspots?
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01-07-2019, 10:21   #784
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Originally Posted by silverharp View Post
what ways are used to track solar "output" apart from sunspots?
There are several other measurements that take place,
TSI ( total solar irradiance) the amount of energy emitted by the sun
Radio waves at various frequencies (seems to closely follow sunspot activity)

Magnetic field strength, also follows sunspot activity and has a direct affect on the Earth's magnetic fields, and many other forms of radiation.
this website has an up to date summary of the most common ones.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/solar/
or there is spaceweather.com
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01-07-2019, 16:11   #785
Mad_Lad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dolanbaker View Post
Wow! Now that's what I call freak weather!


Whether events like this are really more frequent, or simply down to the global access to the information is debatable(before the internet and phones with video cameras, much of these events would have gone unreported, or the news if it wouldn't have been so far reacting).
An interesting test of the solar minimum weather theory will come this winter, 2010 was an extreme year with a cold January and a cold November, will 2020 exhibit a similar pattern?
Yes, but to anyone who doesn't know , this has happened before, maybe not to the same extent, I don't know but Mexico has seen some mad hailstorms.

So it's easy to see how People can react and say "climate change is real" or " I never saw anything like this before so climate change must be happening" and this is partly due to social media and the media, they report the event not mentioning this has happened before etc.

Yes, cameras are everywhere today, can't do anything any more but someone feels they have to video it and put it on youtube, can't even drive on the road but you know someone has a dash cam and cyclists with helmet cams cycling around looking for trouble so they can upload it to prove motorists are D1cks......
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01-07-2019, 18:14   #786
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad_Lad View Post
During the Maunder Minimum , extreme weather events were recorded all over the world.

Who knows the effects deep space radiation/cosmic rays etc may also have on the earth, it's a fragile place for sure.

A sphere spinning around the sun , spinning around in the milky way galaxy which is also spinning around etc, it's all really remarkable when you think about it and here we are !

No doubt this type of weather event will become more and more common as solar minimum continues.
Just remember that you're standing on a planet that's evolving
And revolving at 900 miles an hour.
It's orbiting at 19 miles a second, so it's reckoned,
The sun that is the source of all our power.
Now the sun, and you and me, and all the stars that we can see,
Are moving at a million miles a day,
In the outer spiral arm, at 40, 000 miles an hour,
Of a galaxy we call the Milky Way.
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02-07-2019, 06:54   #787
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Here is another consequence.


Cosmic Rays Increasing for the 4th Year in a Row

Quote:
Why are cosmic rays increasing? The short answer is “Solar Minimum.” Right now, the 11-year solar cycle is plunging into one of the deepest minima of the Space Age. The sun’s weakening magnetic field and flagging solar wind are not protecting us as usual from deep-space radiation. Earth to Sky balloon launches in multiple countries and US states show that this is a widespread phenomenon.

source

Solar Activity and the 11-Year Modulation of Cosmic Rays


Quote:


Prof Henrik Svensmark & Jacob Svensmark discuss the connection between cosmic rays, clouds and climate with the GWPF's Benny Peiser and Jonny Bairstow from Energy Live News.


FORCE MAJEURE - The Sun’s Role in Climate Change - Henrik Svensmark

Quote:
Three main theories have been put forward to explain the solar–climate link, which are:
  • solar ultraviolet changes
  • the atmospheric-electric-field effect on cloud cover
  • cloud changes produced by solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays (energetic particles originating from inter stellar space and ending in our atmosphere).


Significant efforts has gone into understanding possible mechanisms, and at the moment cosmic ray modulation of Earth’s cloud cover seems rather promising in explaining thesize of solar impact. This theory suggests that solar activity has had a significant impact on climate during the Holocene period. This understanding is in contrast to the official consensus from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, where it is estimated that the change in solar radiative forcing between 1750 and 2011 was around 0.05 W/m2,a value which is entirely negligible relative to the effect of greenhouse gases, estimated at around 2.3 W/m2.However, the existence of an atmospheric solar-amplification mechanism would have implications for the estimated climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide, suggesting that it is much lower than currently thought.

In summary, the impact of solar activity on climate is much larger than the official consensus suggests. This is therefore an important scientific question that needs to be addressed by the scientific community.

source
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02-07-2019, 11:40   #788
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I read his Book the chilling stars back 15 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chilling_Stars

At the time I thought humanity was fully in the clear for global warming after reading it.
But it still looks like it could have a sizable affect for slowing down climate change.
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05-07-2019, 18:29   #789
Pa ElGrande
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Winter monsoons became stronger during geomagnetic reversal

Quote:
New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an “umbrella effect”.

When galactic cosmic rays increased during the Earth’s last geomagnetic reversal transition 780,000 years ago, the umbrella effect of low-cloud cover led to high atmospheric pressure in Siberia, causing the East Asian winter monsoon to become stronger. This is evidence that galactic cosmic rays influence changes in the Earth’s climate. The findings were made by a research team led by Professor Masayuki Hyodo (Research Center for Inland Seas, Kobe University) and published on June 28 in the online edition of Scientific Reports.

The Svensmark Effect is a hypothesis that galactic cosmic rays induce low cloud formation and influence the Earth’s climate. Tests based on recent meteorological observation data only show minute changes in the amounts of galactic cosmic rays and cloud cover, making it hard to prove this theory. However, during the last geomagnetic reversal transition, when the amount of galactic cosmic rays increased dramatically, there was also a large increase in cloud cover, so it should be possible to detect the impact of cosmic rays on climate at a higher sensitivity.

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05-07-2019, 20:33   #790
Mad_Lad
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Originally Posted by snowstreams View Post
I read his Book the chilling stars back 15 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chilling_Stars

At the time I thought humanity was fully in the clear for global warming after reading it.
But it still looks like it could have a sizable affect for slowing down climate change.
All a natural process gets warm it cools etc.
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08-07-2019, 08:00   #791
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spaceweather.com

ANOTHER SUNSPOT FROM THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE: Solar Cycle 25 is coming to life. For the second time this month, a sunspot from the next solar cycle has emerged in the sun's southern hemisphere. Numbered "AR2744", it is inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:


How do we know this sunspot belongs to Solar Cycle 25? Its magnetic polarity tells us so. Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale's Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2744 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Right now we are experiencing the tail end of decaying Solar Cycle 24. AR2744 shows that we are simultaneously experiencing the first stirrings of Solar Cycle 25. The transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 is underway.

Shortlived "ephemeral sunspots" belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016; April 8, 2018; Nov. 17, 2018; May 28, 2019 and July 1, 2019. Today's sunspot is more important than those earlier examples because it has lasted long enough to receive a numberical designation: AR2744. Solar physicists will likely mark this as the first official sunspot of Solar Cycle 25.

This development does not mean Solar Minimum is finished. On the contrary, low solar activity will probably continue for at least another year as Solar Cycle 24 decays and Solar Cycle 25 sputters to life.
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20-07-2019, 10:04   #792
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Great recent image of the ISS crossing the spotless sun:

https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap190715.html

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21-07-2019, 00:11   #793
Mad_Lad
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Originally Posted by Ckit1 View Post
Great recent image of the ISS crossing the spotless sun:

https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap190715.html

Amazing, thanks for sharing !
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23-07-2019, 07:50   #794
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Another day another (micro)sunspot, I'm not sure how they can count this one.
Sunspot number: 11
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 23 Jul 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2019 total: 132 days (65%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 23 Jul 2019


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24-07-2019, 18:55   #795
dolanbaker
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That's the second time in recent days that a spot has surfaced and immediately sunk again.
In the previous post, it appears to have blinked before the picture was taken.

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 24 Jul 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 1 day
2019 total: 133 days (65%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 24 Jul 2019
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