Property Market 2020

[Deleted User] · 05-06-2020 5:13pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The US stock market is off the rails. It has no connection with reality any more.

They have COVID, massive unemployment, trade wars and riots all the while the stock market is bouncing along happily.

Jobs are on the up when they were expecting 8 million redundancies. Hence the positivity. People rioting and protesting is not something that will dent the markets long/medium term. Life and the economy goes on for the vast majority of people. They dont have strict lockdown restrictions like we do.

PommieBast · 05-06-2020 6:18pm

ELM327 wrote: »

You should not have more than 100k on deposit in the same bank.

I know, but Ireland only has a few banks

Taylor365 · 05-06-2020 6:32pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I know, but Ireland only has a few banks

Plenty of other places to keep €€€€

Deub · 05-06-2020 8:37pm

Mr Grumble wrote: »

Jobs are on the up when they were expecting 8 million redundancies. Hence the positivity. People rioting and protesting is not something that will dent the markets long/medium term. Life and the economy goes on for the vast majority of people. They dont have strict lockdown restrictions like we do.

Yeah it was 2 something million......... because it was only for the 12 days of May. It is a joke.

missmed · 06-06-2020 10:17am

The property market is reopening this coming Monday, back to physical viewings. There is a lack to supply and pent up demand according to EA’s. Based on this can we expect bidding wars on houses currently on market? or will people hold off and wait for more houses to come to market or possible future price drops?

missmed · 06-06-2020 10:17am

The property market is reopening this coming Monday, back to physical viewings. There is a lack to supply and pent up demand according to EA’s. Based on this can we expect bidding wars on houses currently on market? or will people hold off and wait for more/new houses to launch to market or possible future price drops?

bluelamp · 06-06-2020 10:55am

missmed wrote: »

The property market is reopening this coming Monday, back to physical viewings. There is a lack to supply and pent up demand according to EA’s. Based on this can we expect bidding wars on houses currently on market? or will people hold off and wait for more/new houses to launch to market or possible future price drops?

I would imagine the next few weeks will be extremely busy after a couple of months of nothing happening.

Estate agents are always going to talk up the market, buyers will always talk it down. The truth is always somewhere in the middle.

Personally I dont think it will be clear how covid 19 has impacted the market until October / November or so.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-06-2020 11:18am

Have been talking to a friend who is an EA and they also reckon we won't see the impact of all this for a few months, supply is incredibly low in their area and there is bidding wars now on properties that nobody had an interest in 6 months ago before Covid.

missmed · 06-06-2020 11:58am

Thank you bluelamp and instaste for your opinions/views.

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Have been talking to a friend who is an EA and they also reckon we won't see the impact of all this for a few months, supply is incredibly low in their area and there is bidding wars now on properties that nobody had an interest in 6 months ago before Covid.

Instaste you mentioned that there are bidding wars going on. This raises another question, are people going much over the asking price? I would have imagined covid affecting buyers mortgage approval/drawdown and therefore ability to buy/bid.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-06-2020 12:05pm

missmed wrote: »

Thank you bluelamp and instaste for your opinions/views.

Instaste you mentioned that there are bidding wars going on. This raises another question, are people going much over the asking price? I would have imagined covid affecting buyers mortgage approval/drawdown and therefore ability to buy/bid.

No he was still in the region of the asking price, but what he was saying that was most unusual was that these few properties have been on the market quite a while with little to no interest until now. They don't fully open until next week too.

errlloyd · 06-06-2020 12:11pm

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

No he was still in the region of the asking price, but what he was saying that was most unusual was that these few properties have been on the market quite a while with little to no interest until now. They don't fully open until next week too.

Out of curiosity can you say what region it is?

I'm trying to buy an apartment adjacent to Dublin cc. Regardless of the economy etc, I think the biggest effect on value might be a decease in the number of professionals working in the city if companies change to allow more work from home. (nice suburban apartments will go up, city centre ones will drop as people choose quality of enviornment over quality of commute.)

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-06-2020 12:19pm

errlloyd wrote: »

Out of curiosity can you say what region it is?

I'm trying to buy an apartment adjacent to Dublin cc. Regardless of the economy etc, I think the biggest effect on value might be a decease in the number of professionals working in the city if companies change to allow more work from home. (nice suburban apartments will go up, city centre ones will drop as people choose quality of enviornment over quality of commute.)

Their office covers everywhere from Naul to Drogheda / Dunleer afaik, commuter central.

Hubertj · 06-06-2020 12:39pm

bluelamp wrote: »

I would imagine the next few weeks will be extremely busy after a couple of months of nothing happening.

Estate agents are always going to talk up the market, buyers will always talk it down. The truth is always somewhere in the middle.

Personally I dont think it will be clear how covid 19 has impacted the market until October / November or so.

I think it might take longer than that. People who were on wage subsidy will have to reapply for mortgage if/when they return to work. I presume that means they have 6 months to wait. It wont be until then will it be clear what demand remains. Added to that supply will have been reduced/delayed as construction stopped for so long. And the banks will need to get a handle on the mortgage arrears once the payment holidays stop.

hometruths · 06-06-2020 2:56pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I think it might take longer than that. People who were on wage subsidy will have to reapply for mortgage if/when they return to work. I presume that means they have 6 months to wait. It wont be until then will it be clear what demand remains. Added to that supply will have been reduced/delayed as construction stopped for so long. And the banks will need to get a handle on the mortgage arrears once the payment holidays stop.

The rental market will lead the way. By October/November we should have a good idea of which way the wind is blowing for rents.

If they are falling meaningfully we can expect purchase prices to follow suit.

GocRh · 06-06-2020 3:57pm

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Have been talking to a friend who is an EA and they also reckon we won't see the impact of all this for a few months, supply is incredibly low in their area and there is bidding wars now on properties that nobody had an interest in 6 months ago before Covid.

Could it be a combination of desirable properties going sale agreed quickly earlier in the year, and no new stock being added to the market since March, leaving only properties that attracted little interest a few months ago ?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-06-2020 8:01pm

GocRh wrote: »

Could it be a combination of desirable properties going sale agreed quickly earlier in the year, and no new stock being added to the market since March, leaving only properties that attracted little interest a few months ago ?

Could very well be. Reckon it might be something to do with those who have approval not fancying reapplying in a few months too.

PommieBast · 07-06-2020 1:48am

missmed wrote: »

The property market is reopening this coming Monday, back to physical viewings. There is a lack to supply and pent up demand according to EA’s.

They would say the same thing had a meteor just hit the planet.

Based on this can we expect bidding wars on houses currently on market? or will people hold off and wait for more houses to come to market or possible future price drops?

I suspect things will be subdued, as the majority of people will have taken some sort of financial hit.

PommieBast · 07-06-2020 1:48am

errlloyd wrote: »

I'm trying to buy an apartment adjacent to Dublin cc. Regardless of the economy etc, I think the biggest effect on value might be a decease in the number of professionals working in the city if companies change to allow more work from home. (nice suburban apartments will go up, city centre ones will drop as people choose quality of enviornment over quality of commute.)

In all ironies I think the quality of the environment in the city centre has gone up with all the commuters gone

More seriously the thing with apartments is what state the management company is in. The big discounts are going to be distressed MCs rather than an area falling out of favour.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-06-2020 2:01am

PommieBast wrote: »

They would say the same thing had a meteor just hit the planet.

I suspect things will be subdued, as the majority of people will have taken some sort of financial hit.

Majority or minority? Majority of my friends and acquaintances have saved money this last few months, less opportunities to spend and most weren't furloughed.

wassie · 07-06-2020 9:02am

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

No he was still in the region of the asking price, but what he was saying that was most unusual was that these few properties have been on the market quite a while with little to no interest until now. They don't fully open until next week too.

I suspect a lot of 'interest' is also people who have been stuck at home over the last two months entertaining themselves on the interwebs....

Ozark707 · 07-06-2020 9:16am

wassie wrote: »

I suspect a lot of 'interest' is also people who have been stuck at home over the last two months entertaining themselves on the interwebs....

Last week was the first time in a long time where I saw quite a few properties being added to the myhome filters I have created. Nothing massive but will be interesting to see if that trend continues this week.

Reversal · 07-06-2020 9:55am

Am I the only one who cannot understand how the “saving a bomb during lockdown” effect will exert any real upward pressure on prices. It’s not like would be buyers had 15k euro luxury holidays planned that they’ve cancelled.

Say a couple have been saving 3500 pm instead of 2000, maybe some have benefited more, but you have imagine for the majority the difference is probably less. So an extra 1500 pm for 4 month, 6K. So that’s a buying power increase of 1~2%, not exactly earth shattering against a backdrop of less approvals, lower earnings and job losses.

Anyone who had enough disposable to benefit from the lockdown savings effect by the magnitude stated above probably would have qualified for an exemption. Which is now gone, decreasing their buying power by 25%. So overall their buying power is down 23~24% in the example above.

That’s before we even get into, wage cuts, no bonuses, postponed salary increases. With so many cuts to people’s buying power, and a lot of buyers taken out of the market all together, I just don’t see how a small bit of cash in some peoples pockets will fight the tide. It might feel like a lot, but when you do the maths the argument does not stack up.

Brianmwalker · 07-06-2020 10:15am

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/pension-funds-proposal-for-first-time-buyers-and-reopening-of-hairdressers-coalition-talks-down-to-wire-as-lockdown-lifts-39265825.html

Any thoughts on how the pension fund proposal will impact the market before it comes in to force (if it does at all)? To me looks like damage will drop a little with many waiting for it.
Longer term the government are just propping up the market. If prices fell it would become more affordable for first time buyers

combat14 · 07-06-2020 3:52pm

Brianmwalker wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/pension-funds-proposal-for-first-time-buyers-and-reopening-of-hairdressers-coalition-talks-down-to-wire-as-lockdown-lifts-39265825.html

Any thoughts on how the pension fund proposal will impact the market before it comes in to force (if it does at all)? To me looks like damage will drop a little with many waiting for it.
Longer term the government are just propping up the market. If prices fell it would become more affordable for first time buyers

looks like an overt measure to prop up the housing market (maintain high prices) while at the same time ticking a box that the new government did "somerhjng" for housing ... while in reality housing is again dropping way down the govt agenda behind..

- lowering green emissions (more taxes)
- cutting the national herd / agriculture (more taxes)
- cutting transport (more walking and cycling everywhere)
etc.

way more is needed from the new govt. on housing (and expected by young voters - anyone under 45) than just emptying already very sparse looking pension pots ...

Hubertj · 07-06-2020 4:07pm

combat14 wrote: »

looks like an overt measure to prop up the housing market (maintain high prices) while at the same time ticking a box that the new government did "somerhjng" for housing ... while in reality housing is again dropping way down the govt agenda behind..

- lowering green emissions (more taxes)
- cutting the national herd / agriculture (more taxes)
- cutting transport (more walking and cycling everywhere)
etc.

way more is needed from the new govt. on housing (and expected by young voters - anyone under 45) than just emptying already very sparse looking pension pots ...

The article is behind a paywall so can’t read it in full. Does it go into any detail on how it would work or is it just a headline?

combat14 · 07-06-2020 4:20pm

Hubertj wrote: »

The article is behind a paywall so can’t read it in full. Does it go into any detail on how it would work or is it just a headline?

read in previous article that you could potentially draw down something like up to 20000 tax free
but it would affect your pension entitlements later ...
may be set up in conjunction with help to buy scheme
pension industry be delighted as prob more fees for them too

Browney7 · 07-06-2020 5:05pm

Reversal wrote: »

Am I the only one who cannot understand how the “saving a bomb during lockdown” effect will exert any real upward pressure on prices. It’s not like would be buyers had 15k euro luxury holidays planned that they’ve cancelled.

Say a couple have been saving 3500 pm instead of 2000, maybe some have benefited more, but you have imagine for the majority the difference is probably less. So an extra 1500 pm for 4 month, 6K. So that’s a buying power increase of 1~2%, not exactly earth shattering against a backdrop of less approvals, lower earnings and job losses.

Anyone who had enough disposable to benefit from the lockdown savings effect by the magnitude stated above probably would have qualified for an exemption. Which is now gone, decreasing their buying power by 25%. So overall their buying power is down 23~24% in the example above.

That’s before we even get into, wage cuts, no bonuses, postponed salary increases. With so many cuts to people’s buying power, and a lot of buyers taken out of the market all together, I just don’t see how a small bit of cash in some peoples pockets will fight the tide. It might feel like a lot, but when you do the maths the argument does not stack up.

Agree with all this.

The only converse is that if you are able to save an extra 1k a month for example and you were on a 20k lump sum saved and needed 30k to get your deposit together in full you are much closer to your target now so there is the potential acceleration of more people having their deposit together in the first place.

Experience_day · 07-06-2020 7:01pm

Reversal wrote: »

Am I the only one who cannot understand how the “saving a bomb during lockdown” effect will exert any real upward pressure on prices. It’s not like would be buyers had 15k euro luxury holidays planned that they’ve cancelled.

Say a couple have been saving 3500 pm instead of 2000, maybe some have benefited more, but you have imagine for the majority the difference is probably less. So an extra 1500 pm for 4 month, 6K. So that’s a buying power increase of 1~2%, not exactly earth shattering against a backdrop of less approvals, lower earnings and job losses.

Anyone who had enough disposable to benefit from the lockdown savings effect by the magnitude stated above probably would have qualified for an exemption. Which is now gone, decreasing their buying power by 25%. So overall their buying power is down 23~24% in the example above.

That’s before we even get into, wage cuts, no bonuses, postponed salary increases. With so many cuts to people’s buying power, and a lot of buyers taken out of the market all together, I just don’t see how a small bit of cash in some peoples pockets will fight the tide. It might feel like a lot, but when you do the maths the argument does not stack up.

I would say that a fair few (and bearing in mind Ireland is a small place where it doesn't take a lot to make a meaningful percentage) have been able to save far more than that.

Take a colleague for example. Good salary granted but no longer has creche fees, commute fees, pub most days, lunches, dinners, breakfasts, coffees etc. I would genuinely say he's saving thousands a month.

And what I would also say it's doing is empowering a class of people that have never bothered to save......to save involuntarily. The ones that are now out of credit card debt for first time, maybe those who didn't think they could save for a house and now found themselves (even by your conservative estimates) 6k richer. Doesn't take a lot to extrapolate a few people that now see it as something attainable.

For myself, I've saved nearly my entire paycheck since March on top of my modest savings. It means I have a fair substantial deposit now and I'm genuinely considering buying another house.

Something I wouldn't have considered even a few months ago....

accensi0n · 07-06-2020 7:14pm

Experience_day wrote: »

empowering a class of people that have never bothered to save.......

Hope so, but seems a bit optimistic. I think it's more likely that people who are now saving accidentally and who were historically sh*te at saving, will revert and maybe even make up for it a bit by splashing out.

Experience_day · 07-06-2020 7:38pm

accensi0n wrote: »

Hope so, but seems a bit optimistic. I think it's more likely that people who are now saving accidentally and who were historically sh*te at saving, will revert and maybe even make up for it a bit by splashing out.

See now this is particularly interesting to myself as well. Will people have weaned themselves off the likes of Mcdonalds, Starbucks etc. Fundamentally useless **** that keeps them poor or will they go straight back to it?

Personally I've always been a big fan of the pub. But after a few months without it now, will I simply revert back to how I was before? I know I shouldn't.........but will I?

I do think there must be at least a reasonable percentage that have gotten themselves away from toxic behaviors and habits and that might translate into more savings for houses?

I think the biggest percentage though will be the likes of the "low middle class" eg the ones working at the FAANG companies, financial services etc. They have secure employment greatly reduced costs and for people in a relationship must surely have them close to a deposit for somewhere in the 300-350k category? A 325k place is only 4k a month each for 4 months for a couple...

Property Market 2020

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