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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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07-10-2018 10:10am#1MOD NOTE:
This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.
In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.
Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.
Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.
Thank You.
Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.
Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.
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Will see if the ECM maintains these projected winds. The wind speeds in bold white are mountain tops /high ground . At this stage looks like a slow moving Storm with widespread high wind speeds over many hours.
On Zoom can see quite a large area across the country gusting to 120 km/h, and areas gusting to 130 and 140 km/h. Just an indication of the storms potential. The charts will change through the week getting more fine tuned as time goes on.
Gusts
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Just wondering if Ali would have been considered very high orange end? I am assuming it would be. Also wondering if the storm that people thought looked like happening on the Sunday looked like the current one and when did that begin to look like not happening. If this is the wrong forum to be asking questions apologies.
Yes Ali would have been high end orange for parts of the country, maybe briefly red on the Galway coast and a bit inland there.
The storm that never materialized was set to develop off a wave with a very strong jet and some of the energy of Florence. It was showing up as a very rapidly deepening storm around the S of Ireland / UK but never got going that much until after clearing the UK and also stayed further S, low amount of rain from that as well.
This potential storm is coming out of Canada as a LP moving along the Jet which is on the boundary between the warm and cold air, it is being modelled to deepen and gain mass and energy as it tracks across the Atlantic and when it reaches off the coast of Ireland looks set to slow as it meets the higher pressure off Europe and curve up along the W coast . Just my amateur opinion
ECM 12Z just rolling out
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Plenty of time for changes but certainly looking like quite a significant depression for this time of the season much like Ali was in mid-September, possibly the deepest October low since 2004.
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Over 4 days away and will change and evolve further, ECM showing the Storm tracking closer on this run. Damaging winds with severe gusts country wide atm. ECM 12Z showing it arriving earlier also with first strong winds on the SW coast around 04.00 and not clearing the N coast until later that evening. Early days yet but purely going on this run I see around my area in Kerry could have winds gusting well over 100km/h for 7 or 8 hrs and possibly getting into high end Orange or even Red territory.
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It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.
This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .
UKMO
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Meteorite58 wrote: »It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.
This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .
UKMO
At this stage I'd take it with a pinch of salt but still one to keep an eye on. All the models were consistent on the mentioned Sunday storm a few weeks ago but that never happened. They dropped that signal two days prior to when it was meant to happen. Hopefully it doesn't happen though, I can't afford to lose another Friday
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Sycamore Tree wrote: »Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.
An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.
That must be a relief for you.
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