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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.

    It was actually pretty "mild" here in northern China (Dalian) last winter, when compared to the previous two. The coldest day I can remember last winter was actually in December. Other than that it was pretty consistently between 0 and -7 with almost no snow.

    I hope really hope we don't get extreme cold. The problem where I am is not so much the actual temperature, but the wind chill. Makes me want to cry just thinking about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    booferking wrote: »
    I'll go for an early start to winter going by the increasingly good background signals.

    https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1183983738675519488

    After last winter I kinda lost interest in Matt Hugo,the toys got thrown out of the pram a lot when the long range charts didn't play ball and when there Winter forecast was less than successful he got quiet defensive when asked what went wrong.

    Only my views by the way


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    ZX7R wrote: »
    After last winter I kinda lost interest in Matt Hugo,the toys got thrown out of the pram a lot when the long range charts didn't play ball and when there Winter forecast was less than successful he got quiet defensive when asked what went wrong.

    Only my views by the way


    Try Mark Vogan or James Madden, I can bet my life that both are going for some form of Siberian snow fest.
    Nothing to do, of course, with trying to generate revenues for their respective websites.

    MT, thanks, as ever, for your input. As a coldie, it's a tad depressing you're not seeing any clear cold signal for Ireland and it looks like a torrent of wind and rain on the way (yuck!)...... It is what it is, I suppose!

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    derekon wrote: »
    Try Mark Vogan or James Madden, I can bet my life that both are going for some form of Siberian snow fest.
    Nothing to do, of course, with trying to generate revenues for their respective websites.

    MT, thanks, as ever, for your input. As a coldie, it's a tad depressing you're not seeing any clear cold signal for Ireland and it looks like a torrent of wind and rain on the way (yuck!)...... It is what it is, I suppose!

    D

    Not even funny quoting mad Madden of vague vogan.
    Once weather web started charging for there forecast there not much better in my eyes than the other two.
    Once you pay for one of there forecast you agree to there disclaimers if it's wrong.
    No accountably with any of them


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Pretty much share the same thoughts as me so far M.T. A mild and very wet winter with a strong jet stream that may become meridional at times.

    My favorite type of winter's, loved 13/14 with all the storms, say some of the best lightening in my life that winter.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    John.Icy wrote: »
    I'll go against the grain and go for a cold winter with plentiful snow. Mild start, increasingly cold towards the end of December followed by one proper cold spell in early/mid January. Couple of one-day snows in February and early March.

    That a guess or do you have charts and that to support this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,932 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    John.Icy wrote: »
    I'll go against the grain and go for a cold winter with plentiful snow. Mild start, increasingly cold towards the end of December followed by one proper cold spell in early/mid January. Couple of one-day snows in February and early March.

    I'll join you going against the grain.

    More so because we're going into an enso neutral period but also because there's more cold water in the eastern Pacific that could push us into a La Nina.
    And we had a La Nina in 2010 when we had our cold winter and we had wavy jetstreams then as are now being forecasted on the long range on the gfs. And it was a solar minimum time too as now.
    There's northerlies and easteries being forecasted on the same forecast too.
    So I'll throw my hat in the ring but go for an early winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    US2 wrote: »
    My favorite type of winter's, loved 13/14 with all the storms, say some of the best lightening in my life that winter.

    I did quite like the action of 2013-14 myself although why I did really like it was that I found a lot of the rain came through overnight in Dublin so days were mainly sunny.

    I guess two of the biggest contributors to this winter will be whether a true tripole will reinvigorate in the North Atlantic and the north Pacific will cool down. The current state of the North Atlantic is not that far at all from a tripole and favours relatively weak -NAO in my opinion. These are things you have to wait and see and let the atmosphere take its course for.

    Why I come to the mild and very wet conclusion myself is that I don't see the north Pacific cooling down dramatically so there will be an enhanced gradient like most winters this decade with the jet stream as it crosses North America. However, the north Atlantic might be set up in a state to favour a lot of high latitude blocking which should force the jet stream a bit further southwards so not an overly mild winter. Due to the enhanced jet though in this scenario I have envisioned, the blocking be just a bit too weak to lock northern Europe into a prolonged cold spell. Nevertheless, the blocking would result in a meridional jet at times so there'd be the possibility of fairly potent cold snaps as the jet buckles or meanders somewhat.

    One winter that comes to my mind of such is 1938-39. Autumn 1938 was very mixed with a changeable September, a notably wet and windy October followed by an exceptionally mild and changeable November. December 1938 had a mild start and end with a cold/snowy spell in between up to just after Christmas as the result of blocking over Scandinavia. January 1939 was zonal and really wet but the jet did meander at times producing some snow events and cold snaps although obviously, they'd be only temporary. Can't be a sryanbruen post without some weather history in there somewhere!

    Low solar activity should help in theory increase the probability of -NAO or high latitude blocking. Every month from May to September now has had a -NAO index and it looks like October will be another. This has been the longest period of -NAO during the extended summer period since 2008 which funnily enough was the solar minimum year. What does that mean? To me... absolutely nothing, just fun and trivial.

    I'll be doing a little post next on record breaking mild winters for Ireland like 2018-19 and compare the winter that followed them. This will be just for a bit of craic as always of course.


  • Registered Users Posts: 52 ✭✭damino


    Accuweather have their European Winter 2019/2020 forecast out.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    That Accuweather "forecast" is laughably vague and completely lacking in any detail.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    The postman above in Donegal probably has a better strike rate than Accu.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Infrequently stormy. I'm not even sure what to expect with that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It will be cold at the end of October and start of November then milder

    I dont forsee much out of the ordinary bar the cold end of this month and some storms in December. But every year is different but dont ya know if theres snow it will be the same as the record breaking Summer just gone and ignore Ireland and move to Britain and Europe


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The GFS 18z, 0z and 06z last night/this morning give a good example of the kind of setup I was thinking of for this winter when I said that the jet may become meridional at times.

    gfs-0-102.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    ZX7R wrote: »
    After last winter I kinda lost interest in Matt Hugo,the toys got thrown out of the pram a lot when the long range charts didn't play ball and when there Winter forecast was less than successful he got quiet defensive when asked what went wrong.

    Only my views by the way

    Yes. I've had it with trusting in back ground signals after last year. As you say he was one of those people that got quite defensive when people asked him perfectly valid questions


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    At this point of year, sleet would be pretty interesting to see so I'll settle for that. Hopefully it's not our winter though!

    I remember Halloween 2008 vividly where we had a dusting of snow on the Dublin mountains. Could well happen again this year.

    I also remember that winter wasn’t anything to write home about. There were some cold, foggy days in November. December was relatively settled, cold and dry. Then January was very unsettled and stormy.

    We finally got an easterly of sorts with a decent covering of snow (in the east) in early Feb 2009. If we had something similar this year I wouldn’t complain too much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    esposito wrote: »
    I remember Halloween 2008 vividly where we had a dusting of snow on the Dublin mountains. Could well happen again this year.

    I also remember that winter wasn’t anything to write home about. There were some cold, foggy days in November. December was relatively settled, cold and dry. Then January was very unsettled and stormy.

    We finally got an easterly of sorts with a decent covering of snow (in the east) in early Feb 2009. If we had something similar this year I wouldn’t complain too much.

    I wouldn't mind a similar winter considering how poor our winters have been recently. That winter was like a teaser for what would come the following 2 winters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Billcarson wrote: »
    I wouldn't mind a similar winter considering how poor our winters have been recently. That winter was like a teaser for what would come the following 2 winters.

    Some of them don't deserve to be called winters ie. 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2018/19! 2016/17 was a horror show in particular, especially February 2017, it would've been my least favourite winter in memory if it didn't snow on the very last day. February 2019 was another nightmare, the degree of mildness with the sunshine felt very unnatural to me.

    Who wants to bet that March is going to bail us out next year like it has done recently? ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Some of them don't deserve to be called winters ie. 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2018/19! 2016/17 was a horror show in particular, especially February 2017, it would've been my least favourite winter in memory if it didn't snow on the very last day. February 2019 was another nightmare, the degree of mildness with the sunshine felt very unnatural to me.

    Yep, they were indeed horror shows and you’re right, they didn’t deserve to be called winter.

    I have no faith in long range forecasts anymore. I don’t care what Hugo and the rest of them have to say. I used to pay attention but not anymore because they get it wrong too often.

    The key to a colder than average winter is the jet of course. Hopefully it can f**k off south of us into Spain and Portugal for at least some of the winter but even that is probably asking too much.

    As I said at the start of this thread, not expecting much this winter after last years horror show.


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: Moved some posts (....the autumn ones....) to the autumn discussion discussion thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    That Accuweather "forecast" is laughably vague and completely lacking in any detail.

    But they said it might be windy and rainy some of the time and there might be a bit of cold weather from time to time! I reckon they could even prove right.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    But they said it might be windy and rainy some of the time and there might be a bit of cold weather from time to time! I reckon they could even prove right.

    Winter 2019/20 will be mostly wet, windy, milder than expected temperatures with the occasional Winterly spell.

    That concludes my Winter forcast... there shall be no questions.:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I think anyone hoping for a protracted cold spell during the bulk of winter will be disappointed, but I think systems will track far enough south at times to produce wintry episodes over much of Ireland. I have a feeling that if the jet plays ball we may eventually tap into a blocking high over Scandanavia sometime in Februrary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Haven't read through the thread so not sure what the general consensus is but surely we're overdue a winter with a few good northerlies? It's been years since we had a potent toppler, something that was quite frequent in the winters up until 2010


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Haven't read through the thread so not sure what the general consensus is but surely we're overdue a winter with a few good northerlies? It's been years since we had a potent toppler, something that was quite frequent in the winters up until 2010

    Consensus is a mild, wet and potentially windy winter, which I agree with myself. Not really winter or potent but I do remember mid November to mid December 2017 had a northerly every weekend which probably brought snow to the north and west. I think they stopped after the mid December slider.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    Consensus is a mild, wet and potentially windy winter, which I agree with myself. Not really winter or potent but I do remember mid November to mid December 2017 had a northerly every weekend which probably brought snow to the north and west. I think they stopped after the mid December slider.

    Thankfully long range forecasts are rubbish as this sounds like hell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,163 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Thankfully long range forecasts are rubbish as this sounds like hell.

    Its the percentage call. That's pretty much 8/10 winters in Ireland.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Its the percentage call. That's pretty much 8/10 winters in Ireland.

    Yep, we rarely get more than 1 or 2 decent winters every 10 years. The 1980s were a bit of an exception. Most winters are Atlantic driven with a few brief north-westerlies delivering wet snow showers to the west and north. 2010 and 2018 of course brought plenty of snow, so right now we are not due another decent winter for some time. However there is no guarantee what any winter brings, we could get lucky this year.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 202 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    Serious amount of berries on the holly this year. May be an indication of things to come this winter. (Cold)


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