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Recession predictions

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  • Registered Users Posts: 547 ✭✭✭Soulsun


    I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
    If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭wassie


    theguzman wrote: »
    It will make the last recession look like cakewalk, this country will be hit particularly bad all over again. I actually welcome it as it might make buying a house affordable unlike now.

    The current global financial system is so overloaded with debt that this crisis is inevitable and if it stays as a financial crisis we will be okay but there is a very real existential threat of it spilling into a war or wars, Gold is being hoarded at never before seen volumes and something very big is just around the corner.

    Agree with the above, although I dont subscribe to the view that property prices will take a big hit. The housing sector is no where near leveraged like it was last time, quality of lending is significantly better and the banks are much more capitalised.

    And the debit this time around corporate debt and not consumer debt, of which around 40% is carried by China.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Soulsun wrote: »
    I forecast a soft brexit followed by our economy pushing on again.. really don’t see a recession due to brexit.
    If however there was a global downturn the back end of next year we would feel it eventually.

    A soft brexit means the UK staying in the SM and/or CU.

    Is this likely?

    So far it looks like a hard Brexit?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,848 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭BDI


    We still looking good? Will I crack on building the hotels and eating breakfast rolls or should I buy the off license now?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    Thargor wrote: »
    Records broken in world markets again, S&P ploughing on, at some point Im going to have to get back into the market and that will be when it crashes, or will it?

    Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

    When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    Don't stop mining 3 feet from gold.

    When it falls, it'll fall fast and hard. 2 years tops, 5 months minimum.

    What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
    I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
    Cheers


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    What do reckon as the instigator, and what are the indicators or signs we are that we are heading or well on in that direction?
    I think it's been previously said that corporate debt is going to be one of the drivers, as that falls out there will be a banking exposure, a share and pension fund exposure as well. So a sort of dotcom bust... not confined to the dotcoms ?
    Cheers

    Corporate and sovereign debt. Some big multinationals are going to go the wall in 2020 and 2021.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭car_radio19834


    Is the coronavirus the black swan?


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭robinbird


    The next recession will be a depression which will be more devastating than any in human history. One can only guess when the next recession will start. My guess is October, 2019.

    Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Landon Famous Bakery


    robinbird wrote: »
    Wow. You really were spot on with that prediction.

    Isn't that when the REPO market ramped up?

    Could be right yet.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭car_radio19834


    China markets down heavily this morning. That's with state pumping in billions.

    US futures are up however, Chinese investors must be flooding into US equities. You'd think the US firms earnings are linked to China though so will be interesting to see what the end of today looks like there.

    The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    The rate of infections seems to have stabilised or slightly increased so this might not last too long.
    There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
    Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

    Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.

    7GusiRb.png

    This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

    The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 247 ✭✭car_radio19834


    There are no indications of such, if anything the last 2 days show an marked increase on previous days.
    Global Figures for the today (3rd feb) won't be available until end 21:00 EST.

    Int'l states with it (27) are still controllable, but x10 have reached double figures, if that reaches triple figures, the risk of control goes out the window.

    7GusiRb.png

    This, and the effects of (17,000+ in China) will last for months, most factories and int'l stores there won't resume normal operating hours until it's fully under control.

    The HangSeng has stabilsed somewhat, but that's factoring in the ¥/$bn's being thrown at it.

    This dashboard is wrong?

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    It's getting updated but according to yours it's incorrect.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    This dashboard is wrong?
    It's getting updated....t.
    Updates for today aren't correct, simply as the day isn't over yet, thus you'll have to wait until 21:00hrs EST (after midnight GMT) at least for them to compile Monday's figures from all various sources/orgs, before they'll publish. They're only getting their luckycharms brekkie cereals on the EastCoast(EST) now.

    You'll very easily expect to see 20k+ cases showing in the early hours, estimate 22.5k (at least).


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭wassie


    Is the coronavirus the black swan?

    I doubt it looking back at history which shows that impacts on markets for such events tend to be short-lived. The Chinese and other Asian markets declined as the SARS virus outbreak spread, but bounced back once it was contained. The global response this time has been much swifter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Did anyone guess recession in 2020 due to pneumonia causing virus? Anyone??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 409 ✭✭Titclamp


    Mars delights will be brought back


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 409 ✭✭Titclamp


    Zenify wrote: »
    Did anyone guess recession in 2020 due to pneumonia causing virus? Anyone??

    Yes paddy powers did at 50000/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,848 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Titclamp wrote: »
    Mars delights will be brought back
    Jaysus how did I forget about them? I used to love those, I used to get them ice cold in the freezer then eat them with a cup of tea, so good:

    02vNKqs.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭jimbobaloobob


    wassie wrote: »
    I doubt it looking back at history which shows that impacts on markets for such events tend to be short-lived. The Chinese and other Asian markets declined as the SARS virus outbreak spread, but bounced back once it was contained. The global response this time has been much swifter.

    A month on from your post I think I interpret it differently.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    Looking very close to Black Monday conditions, anyone looking cheap oil ($38) while a price war is starting between Russ & OPEC/SA now is the time.

    FTSE opened 9% negative this morning, recovered slightly -6.3 after lunch, but might well still wrap up at -7/8.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,153 ✭✭✭jimbobaloobob


    Looking very close to Black Monday conditions, anyone looking cheap oil ($38) while a price war is starting between Russ & OPEC/SA now is the time.

    FTSE opened 9% negative this morning, recovered slightly -6.3 after lunch, but might well still wrap up at -7/8.

    Did the market not shut down?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    Did the market not shut down?
    Everything appears up and running (at -6.5% Europe), -5.5% US.


    Oil dropping 20% or so in one day, might be an idea to stop trade, if possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sasha Magnificent Boot


    Bad day for the city folk yesterday, likely have been told to stabalise things by their supervisors.

    Today Moscow's plan to have a price war with SA on the black stuff is perhaps now backfiring
    Moscow RTS -9%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 592 ✭✭✭one world order


    Looks like the bubbles created by currency printing are coming to an end. Dow Jones posted it's second worst fall in history yesterday and 5th worst earlier in the week. No quick solution to the virus in sight, lots of people out of work and business restricted around the world.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Is the coronavirus the black swan?

    it's a herd of black swans


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    glasso wrote: »
    it's a herd of black swans

    Flock?


  • Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    The US and UK seem to have a better grasp of the huge challenge we are facing with both fiscal and monetary actions. also noticed Eu gover bonds are rising which seems criminal now, surely the ECB needs to act. Italy needs cash to survive and funding for healthcare etc. Maybe lagarde wants full control of Italy...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,953 ✭✭✭bilbot79


    Zenify wrote: »
    Flock?

    Actually....

    'A group of swans, also once game birds, is a wedge when they're in flight, likely because of the shape a group of swans takes in flight. And while we can call a group of swans a bevy, a herd, a game, or a flight, they can only be a bank when they're on the ground.'


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