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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

13567…89

Comments

  • #62
    Ave Sodalis
    Registered Users Posts: 7,547 ✭✭✭Ave Sodalis


    Following this thread, I've a ferry crossing from Pembroke to Rosslare early next week and wouldn't mind being kept up to date


  • #63
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Not much change from NHC advisory 13 just a slightly further west forecast track coming towards Ireland.
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
    located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is
    moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general
    motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the
    east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
    two.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
    (110 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

    Cureently 1,165km South West of the Azores.


  • #64
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    Way to early to be calling anything . Personally I'll only get excited if it's showing this strength on Sat afternoon. Even Met can wait till Then before warnings are needed . Then I'll start thinking a road trip

    I can already picture the post mortem arguments here on Tuesday after we end up with a typical windy day..

    Potential is clearly there for a major storm but as you say it's far too early to talk of battening down the hatches. Yesterday evenings ECMWF was a worst case scenario, this mornings runs are either further west or less severe so nothing worth getting worried about yet.

    Certainly an interesting one to watch evolve at least, this is the first time in a long long time I've been watching each model run as it rolls out!


  • #65
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    I think many including mysled got over excited yesterday with the charts.The general feeling today is that it will be normal autumn gales on the west coast. And very mild. Panic over.


  • #66
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Pulled a bit west on the GFS run

    gfs-0-108.png?6


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  • #67
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    Apologies for question,I'm flying to isle of man on mon Oct 16 on one of those propeller planes, with this storm due that day, do you reckon flight will go ahead?


  • #68
    ronnie3585
    Registered Users Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ronnie3585


    I've been looking at the NHC's five day cones for years with fascination, it's a very different feeling when the cone is aimed at us!


  • #69
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,872 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think it will be pulled out further to the W and NW but only surmising.

    Itll only start moving up Saturday with the strong airflow from the HP

    I think the HP will keep it out in the Atlantic.

    Normally these storms only become issues when theres a jet to our South.

    Ill be wrong of course


  • #70
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Apologies for question,I'm flying to isle of man on mon Oct 16 on one of those propeller planes, with this storm due that day, do you reckon flight will go ahead?

    Largely depends on the "crosswind" component, or to put it plainly, whether the wind is blowing straight along the runway, and if not, how far of centre it is. Different aircraft and companies have varying limits.


  • #71
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭pad199207


    What’s the storm surge potential with this?


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  • #72
    RubyK
    Registered Users Posts: 3,354 ✭✭✭RubyK


    Any idea of what kind of rainfall amounts would be expected with this (I know its a long way away yet!)?


  • #73
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest track.

    al172017.17101200.gif


  • #74
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    RubyK wrote: »
    Any idea of what kind of rainfall amounts would be expected with this (I know its a long way away yet!)?

    Not much. The rain looks like it will probably be confined mostly to the west of the centre, so out over the sea, and with the storm's fast movement it will not hang around enough to dump much water.


  • #75
    511
    Closed Accounts Posts: 532 ✭✭✭511


    Cork City tidal barrier ruled out on cost basis


    They might change their mind if this storm makes landfall just to the west of Cork during high tide.


  • #76
    Jimmy 3 times
    Registered Users Posts: 21 ✭Jimmy 3 times


    PukkaStukka wrote: »
    Largely depends on the "crosswind" component, or to put it plainly, whether the wind is blowing straight along the runway, and if not, how far of centre it is. Different aircraft and companies have varying limits.

    How do you think Aerlingus might decide in this situation? Flying in from mainland Europe at about 6 Monday evening. Might be better off not flying out in the 1st place!


  • #77
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest LGEM forecast has the following winds at these locations:

    MON 06Z 48.9N 12.8W 57 KT
    MON 18Z 54.1N 10.0W 44 KT

    So decreasing from 57 to 44 knots as it reaches around Belmullet. The distance between the two points is 609 km, so it will be moving up the west coast at an average speed of around 50 kph during Monday.


  • #78
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest satellite representations.

    Visible,
    20171012.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.17LOPHELIA.75kts-986mb-302N-357W.100pc.jpg

    SSMIS 37 GHz (0926Z, shows lower structure),
    20171012.0926.f17.x.37h.17LOPHELIA.75kts-986mb-302N-357W.89pc.jpg

    85 GHz (0926Z, shows upper structure)
    20171012.0926.f17.x.91hw.17LOPHELIA.75kts-986mb-302N-357W.87pc.jpg

    SSMIS Multisensor (0926Z)
    20171012.0926.f17.x.composite.17LOPHELIA.75kts-986mb-302N-357W.84pc.jpg


  • #79
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Met Eireann forecaster Liz Walsh told Independent.ie: "It is coming towards Ireland, basically the hurricane is south-west of the Azores right now and it is tracking towards Portugal.

    "As it comes north over the weekend it will change into an extra-tropical cyclone and it is tracking towards Ireland and the UK.


    "It does look like it will hit Ireland on Monday, heading into Tuesday will be very stormy days."

    She said that Met Eireann has predicted gusts in "excess of 120kph

    She said: "At the moment this is more of a wind event than a rain event but of course the possibility of heavy rainfall with an extra-tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out."



    Independent.ie


  • #80
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    ME forecast on RTE 1 has just mentioned Monday as "being worth keeping an eye on the forecasts, with significant weather warnings likely to be issued for strong winds".

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • #81
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    GFS ensemble boxplot chart.

    aal17_2017101206_eps_track_gefs_boxplot_late.png

    Current windfield

    2017AL17_MPSATWND_201710121200_SWHR.GIF


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  • #82
    Rulmeq
    Registered Users Posts: 1,056 ✭✭✭Rulmeq


    Will they give this storm one of the North Atlantic names, or will this keep it's current name?


  • #83
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    It wont be renamed,it will be known as Ex- hurricane Ophelia


  • #84
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,130 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    GFS has been consistently off-mark for these predictions so I'd be focusing on ECM tbh


  • #85
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    https://mobile.twitter.com/GregPostel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


  • #86
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,672 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Yellow "Weather Advisory" issued by Met Éireann
    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Ireland

    A combination of a vigorous Atlantic weather system and the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will pass close to Ireland on Monday, and has the potential to be a high-impact event in parts of the country. There is a lot of uncertainty as to the exact evolution and movement of this weather system during the coming four days, but storm-force winds, outbreaks of heavy rain, and very high seas are threatened. Met Éireann will maintain a close watch on the evolution and issue further advisories and warnings as these are warranted.
    Issued:
    Thursday 12 October 2017 14:00
    Valid:
    Thursday 12 October 2017 14:05 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00

    https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asphttps://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp


  • #87
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Rougies wrote: »
    Yellow "Weather Advisory" issued by Met Éireann


    https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asphttps://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

    High impact event, a term met eireann rarely use...

    Just a Slight bit of egg on Joanna's face...


  • #88
    Vinculus
    Registered Users Posts: 369 ✭✭Vinculus


    I was hoping Ophelia would dump a load of rain over Galicia as we really badly need it, especially here in the south. Doesn't look like she will though.


  • #89
    pilly
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,005 ✭✭✭pilly


    squarecircles wrote: »
    High impact event, a term met eireann rarely use...

    Just a Slight bit of egg on Joanna's face...

    Only a yellow warning though?


  • #90
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    pilly wrote: »
    Only a yellow warning though?

    It's not a warning,more an advisory for now,Weather advisory's are yellow by default,given we are four days out,they want to bring it to the public's attention first before issuing any warning.


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  • #91
    FutureGuy
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 15,226 Mod ✭✭✭✭FutureGuy


    Hi all,
    If this does hit Ireland, will it be worse than Storm Desmond?


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