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coronavirus and the property effect

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,315 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    Given that it takes 18 months to evict a delinquent tenant, what extra protection is now needed exactly?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Many people said that about Irish banks in 2008. How many evictions did we see in the end? One? Landlords won't have a leg to stand on because as you have noted the system wont help them. It will grind to a halt.

    There is not a chance they can ask one sector of society to wave away income due to them. If anyone is asked it will be the banks the government will have to step in and pay.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,152 ✭✭✭The_Honeybadger


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    To be fair I’d say most people on this thread are planning on either buying or selling over the next 12 months so it’s very relevant to them and their families.

    There is almost no talk about property prices among most people, too preoccupied with school closures and trying to keep their elderly and infirm relatives alive


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    Property prices here though are arguably a reflection of the real economy. So in that sense, it's a valid point. You'd think there'll be a stagnation in sales for a while, with lower selling prices for those that really need to sell. Uncertainty breeds uncertainty, so for those with the moolah and the confidence to spend it, maybe an opportunity.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I’ve seen Covid’s effect on the economy discussed in Canada but not property prices, a particular Irish preoccupation.

    Canadians are more concerned with the collapse in oil prices


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    You would have to think that:

    1) there will be no houses sold in the next 8-26 weeks with COVID
    2) new builds wont be commenced due to the uncertainty
    3) open houses etc in new builds wont be allowed
    4) who would actually decide today to sell their house next week unless they really had to
    5) house prices could go up, down or stay the same (as we dont know how long this will last, what the demand supply imbalance will be etc etc)
    6) the government will not have money to build houses (or buy social housing) for the foreseeable
    7) housing wont be a government priority until 2021


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    let's see if I can break this up with headings:

    Minister Murphy statement on issues affecting the rental sector in relation to Covid-19
    Published on Saturday, 14 Mar 2020
    https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/private-rented-housing/minister-murphy-statement-issues-affecting-rental-sector-relation
    The Government is very conscious of the additional pressures facing both landlords and tenants in relation to the Covid-19 crisis. Measures to combat the spread of Covid-19 may result in some workers being impacted either through a requirement for self-isolation, a confirmed medical diagnosis or a reduction in working hours. This may lead to some having a difficulty in paying their rent.

    This morning the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Eoghan Murphy TD spoke with landlord representative groups the Irish Property Owners Association, Residential Landlords Association of Ireland and Irish Institutional Property. He is also engaging with tenant groups and this will continue over the coming days.

    “This morning, we discussed potential issues around the safety and security of tenancies and the challenges facing both landlords and tenants. We know that the majority of landlord-tenant relationships work well. Where there is open and early engagement and communication, issues such as those related to rental payments can be resolved,” Minister Murphy said.
    Landlords and Tenants
    “Tenants encountering difficulty with rent payments as a result of the crisis should in the first instance engage as soon as possible with their landlord. I would ask all parties to residential tenancies to exercise forbearance in this time of national crisis, particularly for those affected by Covid-19. I will continue my engagement with the sector in the coming days, in order to ensure that landlords and tenants are both protected during this difficult period. The situation will be kept under constant review.”

    The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government is working with other Government departments preparing guidance on supports available for landlords and tenants.
    Employers urged to pay employees who cannot attend work
    The Government has urged all employers to support national public health objectives by continuing, as a minimum, to pay employees who cannot attend work due to Covid-19 illness or self-isolation the difference between the enhanced Illness Benefit rate and their normal wages.
    Supports for people who have lost employment or have had their hours reduced
    But there is also an economic impact arising from the present unprecedented circumstances. Where an employer due to a reduction in business has made their employees redundant then the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection provides the normal range of income supports for people who have lost employment or have had their hours reduced. These include the following:
    • If the employee has been temporarily laid off due to a reduction in business they may claim a Jobseeker’s payment and they can apply online at www.mywelfare.ie;
    • Where the employer and employee arrange for the employee to work on a short-time basis e.g. 3 days on and 2 days off the employees can claim Short Time Working payment for the days they are not working (up to a maximum of three days per week);
    • If the employee works a minimum of 19 hours per week they may be able to avail of the Working Family Payment which provides income support to certain parents with children;
    • Where an employee does not qualify for any of these payments and has an income need they can apply for Supplementary Welfare Allowance, which is means-assessed.
    Services available for tenants and landlords in difficulty
    Minister Murphy added that services were available for tenants and landlords in difficulty through the Residential Tenancies Board and national housing charity, Threshold, which operates the Tenancy Protection Service.

    The Residential Tenancies (Amendment) Act 2019 also provides a number of key measures to provide greater security of tenure for tenants and underpin the operation of the Rent Pressure Zones (RPZs) which have been designated until the end of 2021. Over two thirds of all tenancies registered with the Residential Tenancies Board are now covered by Rent Pressure Zones.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    ....
    If the virus were to mirror Wuhan's experience, a large number of these properties would be sold or occupied by one of their children + grandkids. ...

    Do you have link to where you saw this...


  • Registered Users Posts: 36,097 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    The Dail would have to be recalled to debate legislation for that to happen. It won't. What will simply happen is that sittings of the RTB will be stopped and applications to the courts for possession orders will be stopped. Rent Allowance or something similar will be introduced to enable tenants pay their rent. There is no question of landlords simply having their rent confiscated nor being allowed to terminate the tenancy is of nonpayers.

    So you won't be able to evict someone who isn't paying? I think we're debating semantics here!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    So you won't be able to evict someone who isn't paying? I think we're debating semantics here!

    It is very difficult to evictive as is


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,254 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    I plan on putting an offer on a house in the morning.
    Business as usual for me


  • Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭lcwill


    Here in Italy some building companies are still working but with very strict limits on numbers of people on site - I have a friend, an architect, managing the renovation of an apartment at the moment. He is only allowed one tradesperson in the apartment at any time because of the social distancing rules. Imagine how long it takes to do a big job one person at a time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭utmbuilder


    The elephant in the room are housing associations with their new money after getting in the region of 400 million to buy new builds over the past 2 years.

    Leveraging these propertys for overseas secured loans will keep them going for a few more years.

    Meaning a 3 bed terrece in drogheda will still get a developer 265k

    Market is very artificial at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 o2bearebel


    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.

    There were almost no new house built. Hence the shortage. People couldn't get finance anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27 o2bearebel


    Zenify wrote: »
    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.

    We've a 10k deposit put down on a new development in Wicklow. Contracts were sent to our solicitor last week. Due to hear from our bank this week on final hurdle in mortage approval.. interesting times!

    I'm not sure if we should walk away for a year. We're trading up and a years rental will be inconvenience and 27k+ in rent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,726 ✭✭✭lalababa


    JJJackal wrote: »
    You would have to think that:

    1) there will be no houses sold in the next 8-26 weeks with COVID
    2) new builds wont be commenced due to the uncertainty
    3) open houses etc in new builds wont be allowed
    4) who would actually decide today to sell their house next week unless they really had to
    5) house prices could go up, down or stay the same (as we dont know how long this will last, what the demand supply imbalance will be etc etc)
    6) the government will not have money to build houses (or buy social housing) for the foreseeable
    7) housing wont be a government priority until 2021

    Reply
    All your points are valid but I don't think they have much weight.
    1) why not?? nothing wrong with -meet EA for viewing....meet solicitor...meet bank manager...sign contract. Probably don't have to meet solicitor initially these days...actually can contract be posted emailed and signed at home or do you need solicitors witness?
    2)New builds would be set up to go and delaying them would just cost money, builders and most workers don't like sitting on their thumbs.
    3)open houses can open just not very open
    4)You want to sell house you put it on market....market hasn't fallen ....yet
    5)yes there is a bit of uncertainty...but so what
    6)hmmmm I don't know 'bout that
    7)hmmmm the same


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,417 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    We've a 10k deposit put down on a new development in Wicklow. Contracts were sent to our solicitor last week. Due to hear from our bank this week on final hurdle in mortage approval.. interesting times!

    I'm not sure if we should walk away for a year. We're trading up and a years rental will be inconvenience and 27k+ in rent.

    Same here. Waiting for the legal stuff to be done and sign. Really think the banks will stall everything.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ........... Really think the banks will stall everything.

    That might not be bad. You are likely set to sign at an all time price high since the 2007 peak in a time when hundreds of thousands of folk are looking at employment insecurity and cashflow in the economy will fall drastically.

    Food for thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 330 ✭✭paul-2008


    Zenify wrote: »
    I cant see the banks allowing mortgage drawdowns right now...? Anyone have any facts about the banks approving and releasing mortgages in the current climate.

    Coming from someone with mortgage approval but I'm now unemployed.
    Mortgage funds released this morning.. doesnt seem to be any initial issues. Now to hope EA/Solicitor doesnt decide to shut down this week and we can close the sale


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    Alot of speculation here on individual house sales. What about new house launch prices ? Do you think they'll be adjusted downwards ? If so, I wonder how long that would take. I can't recall what happened during the last recession on that front.


    New houses need to sell quickly due to the nature of the building industry. They are built to sell. If demand slow down they will have to lower price. Builders can't afford to leave new homes vacant for too long
    You might start to see al lot of POA on MyHome instead of showing the actual asking price on the ad to make it difficult for people to compare


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Augeo wrote: »
    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.

    S&P down 10% again today so far


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    S&P down 10% again today so far

    Indeed, % makes great headlines but context also important.

    Peak was 3400 ish in mid Feb .......... 20% drop brought it to 2700 ish.
    10% of 2700 is of course smaller then 10% of 3400 :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 94 ✭✭randoplh134


    Augeo wrote: »
    S&P500 down 20%, FTSE100 down 30% ish in last few weeks.
    Thousands of workers looking like being out of work and pubs closed.

    20% + drop in Irish house prices isn't unlikely as the prices were levelling off anyway.

    House prices will fall in line with stock market I reckon.

    Bingo, expect at least a 20% drop in prices by the end of the year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Bingo, expect at least a 20% drop in prices by the end of the year.

    MAYBE... and what if you lose mortgage approval or cant get it in a few months due to changed circumstances? Prices will drop, but so may peoples ability to buy. If you are currently being ripped off on rent, that is a big factor...


  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭OttoPilot


    Augeo wrote: »
    Indeed, % makes great headlines but context also important.

    Peak was 3400 ish in mid Feb .......... 20% drop brought it to 2700 ish.
    10% of 2700 is of course smaller then 10% of 3400 :)

    Dont worry, it fell 12% which is the equivalent of 10% from peak ;)


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  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    OttoPilot wrote: »
    Dont worry, it fell 12% which is the equivalent of 10% from peak ;)

    It fell 12% today.
    Today COB it's 30% off Feb peak.... Daily falls aren't measured off peaks from weeks ago.


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