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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 66,280 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What are Labour's prospects?

    They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

    I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

    Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

    Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

    Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

    As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

    After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

    It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

    Vincent Browne doesn't think much of them

    https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1217549914604961797


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

    People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

    Michael Fitzmaurice will get a seat as he says what people want to hear.
    Denis Naughten will get one, due to hospital, his name and good groundwork. He isn't putting up any posters it seems, according to this weeks Roscommon Herald.

    FG were prepping Sen. Maura Hopkins for this election, but she had a baby in December and is not running, seems they have Cllr Aisling Dolan from Ballinasloe running. She was an Independent until early December. I don't see her getting in. Big FG vote in south Roscommon will go to Naughten.

    Which leaves the final seat to FF, held by Eugene Murphy. Murphy is from north Roscommon (Strokestown) but they just lost 8,000 voters to Sligo-Leitrim. Now they decided to run Orla Leyden (daughter of Terry Leyden), so could be interesting to see what happens as she is in the middle of the constituency. I think she will do OK, but Murphy is liked and she is not the most popular.

    Prediction:

    Fitzmaurice - Ind
    Naughten - Ind
    Murphy - FF


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,904 ✭✭✭mgn


    Once again I hope no FG seat in Roscommon

    People have long memories and they don't forget Enda Kenny standing up in the square telling lies about the local hospital

    Not a hope will FG get a seat.

    Denis Naughten and Michael Fitzmaurice are dead certs, Eugene Murphy (FF) should get the third seat, but early days yet, he has not a high profile nationally but keeps busy locally and is well liked.


  • Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭farmerval


    I think the left wing Independent Seamus Healy is running again? He's been a TD for donkey's years but must be quite old at this stage. His vote seems very solid and he's South Tipp which I think is a benefit to him.

    Kelly only got in very narrowly last time, Healy a bit more comfortably.

    Lowry, McGrath and Cahill (FF) are nailed on there you'd think with the remaining two in play between Healy, Kelly, FG and FF2.

    I'd be leaning towards FF2 (Sandra Farrell) having enough for one of those seats and she is North Tipp which is bad for Kelly, as he's North Tipp as well.

    Lowry takes a huge chunk of the FG vote like Naughten does in Roscommon, so that's how FG didn't get a seat last time. They could miss out again.

    I'd be going with Lowry (IND), McGrath (IND), Cahill (FF), Healy (left IND), Farrell (FF), in that order.

    If Labour are 5/6 for under 8.5 seats I'd say that's an absolute banker.

    Alan Kelly's brother Declan is the man behind Teneo who sponsored the Tipp Hurlers in a very high profile way this year. Won't do him any harm in the election.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,848 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    RTE reporter predicted tonight that Joan Burton will lose her seat in Dublin West, with a Green gain. Coppinger to hold her seat according to this pundit. Very tight contest.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,676 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Vincent Browne doesn't think much of them

    https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1217549914604961797

    Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,848 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    markodaly wrote: »
    Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother. :D

    I think you're thinking of Eamon Dunphy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,280 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    markodaly wrote: »
    Well Vincent Brown was thinking about running for the Dail in 2011 with Fintan o'Toole and his like. However, he couldnt get this posters printed in time, so didn't bother. :D

    An entire government firing millions at the problem can't seem to get a printer switched on. :rolleyes:

    Does not running preclude you from having an opinion now? Would rule a lot of pundits out so.

    Do you agre with what he says btw?


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,280 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think you're thinking of Eamon Dunphy.

    Yeh, I think you are right. Vincent's dalliance with the idea was when he was a lot younger I think. 80's/90's maybe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,676 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The more serious point about VB and others of his ilk are that they are like the Puritans of old.

    They are not a pragmatic people, as evidenced by the ability or lack of, to print off some posters. They are however, the classic hurler on the ditch. Forever complaining and giving out about the state of affairs, yet rarely lifting a finger to help, while they enjoy comfortable standards of living. There are loads of people and especially commentators who are always quick to give their account on RTE or Newstalk.

    This is also a problem with left wing parties and people in Ireland. Always trying to out do the other in being more 'right-on', 'woke' or pure then the other. leftie. RBB is a great example of this. Yet if you ever gave people like that actual decision making responsibility or roles they wouldnt know what to do.

    At least Labour would go into power, which is more than can be said for many other of their ilk.

    However, I do not expect this election to be kind to them. They will do well to remain as they are as the left vote will go to the Greens.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,680 ✭✭✭zimmermania


    What are Labour's prospects?

    They currently have 7 seats - Howlin (Wexford), Ryan (Fingal), Kelly (Tipperary), Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Burton (Dublin West), O'Sullivan (Limerick City), Sherlock (Cork East).

    I'd expect Howlin and Sherlock to be returned.

    Ryan and Penrose are standing down.

    Labour have a chance of holding the seat in Fingal I think but Longford-Westmeath will be lost.

    Burton, Kelly and O'Sullivan will all face huge battles to hold on and all three could easily go.

    As for potential gains, you're looking at Aodhan O'Riordain (Dublin Bay North), Ged Nash (Louth) and Kevin Humphries (Dublin Bay South). The first two have a great chance, Humphries is probably an underdog.

    After that Mark Wall in Kildare South and maybe Cork North Central are the only two hopes I can see.

    It looks grim enough for them and they'll be doing well just to stand still.

    Kelly is a cert and the most admired woman in Ireland will be campaigning for him which wont do him any harm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,280 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    markodaly wrote: »
    The more serious point about VB and others of his ilk are that they are like the Puritans of old.

    They are not a pragmatic people, as evidenced by the ability or lack of, to print off some posters. They are however, the classic hurler on the ditch. Forever complaining and giving out about the state of affairs, yet rarely lifting a finger to help, while they enjoy comfortable standards of living. There are loads of people and especially commentators who are always quick to give their account on RTE or Newstalk.

    This is also a problem with left wing parties and people in Ireland. Always trying to out do the other in being more 'right-on', 'woke' or pure then the other. leftie. RBB is a great example of this. Yet if you ever gave people like that actual decision making responsibility or roles they wouldnt know what to do.

    At least Labour would go into power, which is more than can be said for many other of their ilk.

    However, I do not expect this election to be kind to them. They will do well to remain as they are as the left vote will go to the Greens.

    That's the problem...Labour go into government but not power.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    That's the problem...Labour go into government but not power.

    Sure that's the same for parties across Europe

    Hasn't Finland just formed a government with 4 parties involved?


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,280 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Sure that's the same for parties across Europe

    Hasn't Finland just formed a government with 4 parties involved?

    No idea about Finland.

    The perception (rightly or wrongly) that Labour have to change is that they will go into government for selfish reasons and leave Labour principles and voters behind. I would blame a lot of that perception on Joan Burton and Pat Rabbitte's performances when in Government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    blanch152 wrote: »
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louth_County_Council_election

    Had a look at the local election results. Greens got 6.4%, but they only ran in three of the five wards.

    Across those three wards, their average vote was 9.3%. While a Green seat is unlikely, it is not impossible.
    Yeah, but they lost a seat!
    Locals can give a general indication of support level but none of who might get elected. Turnout is also a good deal lower. He'd have to beat most of them on FPVs and that is on the impossible end of things given his geography -out of Dundalk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Gintonious wrote: »
    The David McWilliams podcast will be my saving grace for this election.
    Unctuous and smug are the two words that come to mind but I hope you enjoy it!:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,927 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    No idea about Finland.

    The perception (rightly or wrongly) that Labour have to change is that they will go into government for selfish reasons and leave Labour principles and voters behind. I would blame a lot of that perception on Joan Burton and Pat Rabbitte's performances when in Government.

    I see Matt Carty is planning to run for a Dail seat.
    I suppose you can vote SF this time Francie?
    Also, do you think SF have to at some stage soon step up and seriously negotiate with with the largest party after the election with a view to going into Govt, rather than the hiding job they done in 16?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,598 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Unctuous and smug are the two words that come to mind but I hope you enjoy it!:)

    It's a very entertaining, informative podcast


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's a very entertaining, informative podcast
    It's that supercilious voice!:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,062 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
    BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,927 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Water John wrote: »
    We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
    BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.

    Be war over there so:).


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    Where will Penrose's seat go? Would have thought that's a likely labour loss as it wouldn't be a place you'd expect them to do well enough to take a seat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,927 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    robman60 wrote: »
    Where will Penrose's seat go? Would have thought that's a likely labour loss as it wouldn't be a place you'd expect them to do well enough to take a seat.

    Local opinion here is they will lose it, but don't discount the new candidate holding it for certain.

    https://www.longfordleader.ie/news/home/509285/longford-to-restore-balance-in-general-election-2020.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Water John wrote: »
    We're all largely stuck with the accent we have, if you can't get past that! Always liked D McW.
    BTW all 4 parties in Govn't in Finland are lead by women.
    We're not really. You can rework it. Just don't like him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,062 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Yes, Maggie Thatcher reworked hers but it didn't change her spots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,216 ✭✭✭nc6000


    Kelly is a cert and the most admired woman in Ireland will be campaigning for him which wont do him any harm.

    Who is that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    Paddy Power offering 11/10 on under 9.5 seats for Greens. Somewhat tempted to bite but not sure. They'll pick up a few labour/urban seats I reckon and get to 7 or so but I don't know if they have broad enough support to hit double digits.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,452 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Gintonious wrote: »
    When will we get any idea of polls etc?

    There's a few due out over the weekend.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Maureen O'Sullivan not standing in Dublin Central.

    The constituency is expanding to four seats.

    Mary Lou McDonald and Paschal Donoghue will take two and I'd fancy Gary Gannon to get seat 3. That leaves seat 4 between Fianna Fail and Christy Burke who has been running for decades without ever being elected to the Dail.

    I fancy he has a great chance this time and if I had to make a prediction, I think he'll do it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,811 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    blanch152 wrote: »
    FF 58, SF 17 gives 75, with independent support (Healy-Raes anyone?) gets a majority.

    FF 58, LAB 9, Greens 7, Soc Dems 3, gives 77, 79 with the Healy-Raes. An FG Ceann Comhairle and they are nearly there.

    I wonder what compromises would need to be made to get the Healy-Raes and the Greens in the same coalition. Maybe cycle lanes alongside every boreen in Kerry?


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