Welsh Grand National

del roy · 10-12-2019 2:44pm #1

Coral Welsh Grand National

December 27
Key trends

Won over at least 3m, nine winners in last ten runnings (exception placed in this race previously)
Aged six to eight, 8/10
Top-four finish last time, 8/10
Officially rated 131-151, 8/10
No more than two runs since the start of September, 7/10
Carried no more than 10st 10lb, 7/10

Other factors

Four winners had run in the race previously and all had placed at least.
Two winners had contested the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly Hennessy) where they finished 12. Both were trained by Colin Tizzard (Native River in 2016 and Elegant Escape in 2018) – the last winner to have contested the race before them was Playschool in 1987.
Mountainous in the 2015 running became the first dual winner since Bonanza Boy (1988 and 1989) and the first one aged ten or older since Riverside Boy (1993).
Six winners had no more than ten chase runs but four of the last seven had between 15 and 25.
Five winners had previously scored at the course.

Welsh National Racing Post Ratings

Native River 176
Elegant Escape
Yala Enki
Robinsfirth 175
Steely Addition
Vintage Clouds
Joe Farrell
Pobbles Bay
Ballyoptic 174
Crievehill
Compiled by Steve Mason
Topspeed Ratings

Rock The Kasbah 173
Joe Farrell 170
Native River 169
Robinsfirth 164
Yala Enki 164
Crievehill 161
Elegant Escape 161
Mister Whitaker 156
Kilfilum Cross 151
Coningsby 150

Now McGinty
Coral Welsh Grand National, December 27
1pt win at 12-1

Now McGinty 2:50 Chepstow

Yala Enki
Coral Welsh Grand National, December 27
1pt each-way at 14-1

Yala Enki 2:50 Chepstow

It's quite clear where the power lies in the staying chase division in Britain because seven of the first eight in the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on December 27 are trained by either Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard. The interloper is the Stuart Edmunds-trained Now McGinty and he's well worth backing at 12-1 because he looks to have all the attributes of a typical Welsh National winner.
Given the rain we've had this jumps season, it's hard to think of the race being run in anything but heavy ground and Now McGinty has shown time and time again that he stays forever and loves the mud.
Furthermore, he has good course form as he showed when easily outstaying leading Ladbrokes Trophy fancy De Rasher Counter in a novice chase at the track in January. Now McGinty went on to be a close second in the Reynoldstown at Ascot and he was far from disgraced in the RSA given the race turned into a bit of a sprint from the home turn.
I feared his Welsh National chances would be diminished by the handicapper after running such a good race behind Santini on his comeback run but he only went up 3lb, while in my opinion he could have, and probably should have, gone up by triple that.

All the talk after the race was how disappointing Santini was, but it's worth noting Now McGinty beat two other good horses including last season's runaway bet365 Gold Cup winner by 30 lengths. Maybe it was Now McGinty improving more than Santini under-performing.

With Native River looking increasingly likely to run, Now McGinty will have a nice low weight and there isn't a stamina test big enough for him.
The one slight concern is that this race is often won by a Gold Cup horse near the top of the weights and there is a chance he could get taken out of his rhythm by the likes of Native River.
Having said that, Native River won this race off 12lb lower in 2016 and last year's winner Elegant Escape might be a bigger danger as he's still young and, like Now McGinty, his strongest asset is stamina.

He will no doubt go well again, but if you fancy him you have to think Yala Enki has a shot too because he was third last year off near enough top weight and was only just behind Elegant Escape in the Gold Cup as well.
He'll be 8lb better off this year, he's joined Nicholls and he's had a wind operation. I doubt if Yala Enki is going to improve a great deal given Venetia Williams was his previous trainer, but even if he runs to last year's form off only a 1lb higher mark, he surely has a decent each-way chance at 14-1.

Mister Malarkey has been a big springer in the Ladbrokes Trophy market in recent days and if he runs as well as expected at Newbury he will shorten considerably for this, but I'm not certain he's a mud lover.
The current favourite is Truckers Lodge, who is still a novice. He's a relatively short price on the back of Nicholls suggesting he was the ideal type for the race and all his best form is at Chepstow. I'm sure he's going to prove himself better than his handicap mark, but he's far too short on what he's actually achieved.

Of those at big prices it would be interesting to see if Gordon Elliott chose to run Mala Beach after his good run behind Footpad this month, while the mare Graceful Legend was really impressive at Bangor last time and she loves heavy ground.

lemush · 10-12-2019 4:18pm

Nicholls was very open about the fact the Hennessy was more or less a prep for Yala Enki, very hard to get fit at home and this race was the aim.

Slattsy · 11-12-2019 9:53am

Elegant Escape for me lads. Can't see passed him.

madmoose · 11-12-2019 10:15am

I backed Elegant Escape myself yesterday also, would hope Native River stays in this race so keep EE weight slightly down.

Will have a couple of quid ew also on Steely Addition.

del roy · 11-12-2019 10:57am

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Native River, Elegant Escape, Robinsfirth, West Approach and Mister Malarky
It looks like we'll run Native River in the Welsh National. We were going to give him a spin over hurdles but he wasn't qualified for the race we were looking at, so this seems the plan. He'll have to shoulder top weight, but the conditions should suit him and play to his strengths. He's in good nick – we schooled him this morning and he jumped superbly. He's been working well and it was always the plan to leave him until December to run him. He's weighted off his ability and is strong enough to carry it, while these conditions will suit him better than anything else over Christmas. The others are in Saturday's Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, so we'll get that out of the way first, but West Approach is one who could come into the Welsh National, while Elegant Escape, who won the race last year, falls into the Native River category in that Chepstow ticks a lot of his boxes.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Now McGinty
Ever since he won a novices' chase nicely at Chepstow this has always been the plan and he'll go straight there. We were very pleased with how he ran at Sandown, he's got a nice racing weight [10st 6lb] and should get his conditions.

Ben Case, trainer of Graceful Legend
She's going to run in a Mares' Listed race at Newbury next month and then we'll see where we go afterwards. She won well enough in heavy ground at Bangor. With the way the weather is we had to have her in there [in the Welsh National].

Christian Williams, trainer of Potters Corner
He won the Midlands National on heavy ground and his next run over fences will be the Welsh National. With conditions in his favour, I'd be hopeful he'd put up a good show. The ground was quick enough for him at Haydock over hurdles last weekend and it was a very competitive race. He'll probably have one more run over hurdles before Chepstow.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Lake View Lad
He's due to run in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on Saturday and that will tell us where we go. The Welsh National was a slightly speculative entry and he could come back to Wetherby for the Rowland Meyrick again. The ground at Chepstow at that time of year ought to be right up his street.

Evan Williams, trainer of Pobbles Bay, Prime Venture and Virginia Chick
All three horses will all be aimed at the race with the hope they can get in.

Sue Smith, trainer of Vintage Clouds
He's in very good form but he's being aimed more at the Becher Chase than the Welsh National at this stage.

finbarrk · 11-12-2019 8:33pm

I backed Elegant Escape a couple of days ago. 8/1.

IAMAMORON · 11-12-2019 9:56pm

If Native River runs Elegant Escape will get in off a nice weight.

Does Native River not go up a few pounds for winning on Saturday. He was 167 pre race ?

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/12/chepstow/2019-12-27/743420/

What happens in Britain if the top weight is pulled after the final declarations?

IAMAMORON · 11-12-2019 9:59pm

Rock the Kasbah looks interesting off 10st7lbs . Around 25 / 1. Loves the mud.

BoldReason · 11-12-2019 11:36pm

Wouldn't have thought the handicapper would raise him from 167 myself. Seems a fair enough rating and was a poor enough grade 2 hard to know what he actually achieved there.

longshotvalue · 12-12-2019 9:52am

I couldnt see value if it hit me in the face , but if joe Farrell is going here , he would be short enough to get involved here . I’ve had a little go at 40/1 ew . Seems like native river could win this pulling a caravan judging by the last day and elegant escape is long odds on to be closing fast at the end . Hope they all turn up .

CORMACREYN · 12-12-2019 9:53am

BoldReason wrote: »

Wouldn't have thought the handicapper would raise him from 167 myself. Seems a fair enough rating and was a poor enough grade 2 hard to know what he actually achieved there.

They've put him up a pound to 168.

stretchaq · 12-12-2019 5:38pm

Think yala enki is the one for this see if Paul Nicholas can squeeze some improvement out of him

del roy · 14-12-2019 3:20pm

Ladbrokes King George and Coral Welsh Grand National Plans

We’ll have a chat with John and Heather Snook this weekend about Thistlecrack as the decision on whether to run in the Marsh Hurdle or the Ladbrokes King George will be up to them.

We don’t actually have to make the final decision until Thursday morning but we will be talking about it today, and we’ll work it out.

He’ll be trained exactly the same, we’re not going to change much, but we’ll school him over a fence on Wednesday rather than a hurdle if we are going for the King George.

I think Elegant Escape will be our one runner in the Coral Welsh Grand National.

Garth and Anne Broom are keen for Native River to go to the Cheltenham Gold Cup reasonably fresh, so we’ll likely target the Cotswold Chase or the Denman Chase for him.

He’ll just have the one run and then we’ll have a real good crack at the Gold Cup again.

Joe

del roy · 24-12-2019 2:02pm

Weather update

Chepstow clerk of the course Libby O'Flaherty is optimistic the track's marquee meeting on Friday, which features the Grade 3 Coral Welsh Grand National, will go ahead without any weather worries.

Although the meeting – the Welsh course's biggest of the year – has been postponed due to waterlogging three times in the last seven years, O’Flaherty is quietly confident that will not be the case this year.

She said on Sunday: "We have missed a lot of the recent heavy rain that has affected some other courses, which is a bit surprising, and the track has coped really well with the jumps meetings this season.

“We are currently soft, heavy in places and I think that is roughly how we will be come Friday’s meeting, as we have a maximum of 25mm of rain in the forecast this week with it being pretty much dry on Thursday and Friday, which is very encouraging.”

The Coral-sponsored seven-race card also includes the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle and Flaherty added: “They will be racing on comparatively fresh ground on both bends and many parts of the course will not have been raced on since the October meeting.

“It’s our big day of the year by some way with all the prize-money on offer and we're all looking forward to Friday.

"If the weather forecast is correct I do not foresee any problems as I'm happy with the ground conditions all round the course as things stand.”

IAMAMORON · 24-12-2019 2:15pm

I got a tip for Potters Corner, seemingly getting hammered from 50's into now 7's . I am hoping for a better price on Friday.

del roy · 24-12-2019 7:53pm

Trainer Christian Williams is hoping Potters Corner can erase an agonising memory from his riding days in Friday's Grade 3 Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.

Williams was just touched off in the Christmas marathon aboard Halcon Genelardais 12 years ago, going down by a head to Miko De Beauchene after a costly last-fence error.

Now training at Ogmore-By-Sea, near Bridgend, Williams appears to have a live chance of avenging that defeat with his first runner as a trainer in the £150,000 race, with Potters Corner a best-priced 9-1 with bet365, SkyBet and William Hill.

Williams, recalling his Welsh National near miss, said: “My horse just got the final fence a bit wrong and that allowed the winner to get upsides and we tussled all the way to the winning line.

"I must admit I was not sure who had won and the result of the photo finish seemed to go on forever until it was announced I was beaten a head.

“I felt a bit deflated for days and it was a long drive home that night as the Welsh Grand National is the race that any Welshman really wants to win, and to be that close and then have it snatched away stuck with me for a while.”

However, Williams is more than hopeful Potters Corner can put the record straight in this year’s renewal, with talented conditional jockey Jack Tudor booked for the ride.

He said: “Jack is based with me at Bridgend and he won on him over hurdles at Chepstow this month and takes the ride again. He has a very valuable 7lb allowance which should help matters as the handicapper put him up over fences after that win even though it was a hurdle race.

“The ground at Chepstow is bound to be on the soft side or heavy and I think that is the key to the horse – it’s not as if he is slow or anything like that, it just suits him. He has been to the course four times in the past and won three races so he likes the place.

“In his younger days he won a bumper at Chepstow and then finished third in the Aintree Grade 2 bumper so he has a bit of class about him and stays very well, as he showed when winning the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last March.”

Williams added: “The horse is well in himself and I've been happy with him in the run up to this race. He was determined in his hurdles victory two weeks ago and, in my book, has what it takes to win the race for a Welsh trainer and a Welsh jockey. That would give the home crowd something to cheer about.”

Tudor, who has ridden 15 career winners under rules, is understandably delighted to have been given the chance to partner Potters Corner and said: "It's a massive day for a young rider like me and I have to thank the boss and the horse's owners for having such faith in me.

"I'm well aware that we will be needing all the luck in running as it's very competitive in the early part of the race with every rider trying to get a position before they get to the crucial first bend.

"My plan will be to jump off handy, wing the first fence and then get the horse settled into a nice position and get him into a rhythm before riding a race from there. If we are fortunate enough to be in with a chance of winning I will definitely be going for it."

He added: "I know the horse is in great form and there is no problem about him staying the trip as he won the Midlands National last March in the mud so there are no excuses there."