Property Market 2019

ZX7R · 08-12-2019 9:16am

appledrop wrote: »

It is worth talking about. Trust me I know as it was people in my age bracket family/ friends/acquaintances
who all bought around this time + so many in 400k plus bracket on 40 year mortgages as young enough. Really people need to do the maths.

Didn't even realize you could get a 40 year mortgage.
But if people did get them does it really matter about negative equity.
Surely if getting a mortgage for that length you are not planning on selling anytime soon.

missmed · 08-12-2019 11:48am

Hello,

I’m bidding on a house, my current offer is 620 which was rejected. The seller is a bank and they are fixed on minimum 650. My EA asked if I could pay 650 but I said no we dont have that. He said he’ll try again with our existing offer. What is the best thing to do in this situation? offer halfway or just sit tight? The reason i’m considering halfway is that someone else could come in and bid more than me.

Samuel T. Cogley · 08-12-2019 12:52pm

Bank will likely sit tight for the figure which has probably been made by committee. I'm open to correction ofc.

Dolbhad · 08-12-2019 1:02pm

missmed wrote: »

Hello,

I’m bidding on a house, my current offer is 620 which was rejected. The seller is a bank and they are fixed on minimum 650. My EA asked if I could pay 650 but I said no we dont have that. He said he’ll try again with our existing offer. What is the best thing to do in this situation? offer halfway or just sit tight? The reason i’m considering halfway is that someone else could come in and bid more than me.

I find for bank sales they have a price and tend to wait for it. A bank is in no rush to sell and will need to sell at a certain price to recover what they can. Once they get the price they go sale agreed, unlike a private seller who may wait longer having getting their agreed price in case someone higher comes along.

alias no.9 · 08-12-2019 1:36pm

appledrop wrote: »

Your wrong even in Dublin some people still in negative equity During peak boom 2 bed houses near us sold for 400k +. Even with recovery only worth 265 now. Yes if you took 20 year mortgage you might be ok but I know people who got 35 or 40 year mortgages from bank so still in negative equity. Mad but true.

A 400k mortgage drawn down in march 2006 over 30 years and paid to schedule should have an outstanding balance in the order of 240k now.

I'd wager that with the recovery in prices since 2016, even with a 100% mortgage, only extreme corner cases can still be in negative equity without having missed payments or tacked on borrowing for cars or holidays, etc...

There were people who bought later than that and for longer terms but those figures allow for the current value of the property to be 40% below purchase price. Too many independent varibles need to line up for there to be a significant cohort of people to still be in negative equity in Dublin where even a 100% mortgage has been paid to schedule.

bluelamp · 09-12-2019 6:26pm

Fine Gael TD Colm Brophy lodges planning objection for 590 apartments to be built in Knocklyon, saying apartments are the wrong type of housing for this area.

More nimbyism - and a refusal to accept that Dublin needs something other than 3 bed semi detached houses as far as the eye can see.

https://extra.ie/2019/12/09/business/property/objection-housing-development-taoiseach

super_furry · 09-12-2019 6:31pm

bluelamp wrote: »

Fine Gael TD Colm Brophy lodges planning objection for 590 apartments to be built in Knocklyon, saying apartments are the wrong type of housing for this area.

More nimbyism - and a refusal to accept that Dublin needs something other than 3 bed semi detached houses as far as the eye can see.

https://extra.ie/2019/12/09/business/property/objection-housing-development-taoiseach

Usually I'd be all for going after him there but Jesus the last thing they need up in Knocklyon is more apartments. It's like Legoland up there, between Hunters Wood, Stocking Lane and all those other soulless developments halfway up the Wicklow Mountains pretending that they're in Rathfarnham, the place is already massively over-developed for the little amenities that are up there. Just getting onto the motorway in the morning can take an hour in bad weather.

The_Conductor · 09-12-2019 8:16pm

super_furry wrote: »

Just getting onto the motorway in the morning can take an hour in bad weather.

Just getting on the motorway from anywhere can take an hour in good weather in the morning- on a bad morning, its an outright nightmare.

We need high density housing units- ideally as close to the city centre as possible- and when they're on the outskirts- we need to make sure we develop viable public transport options. Facilities, services and amenities- will follow- if there is the demand for them (even in high density areas, there isn't always sufficient demand to support them).

We 100% do not need more housing estates- and if apartments were built and priced appropriately- would it be the end of the world.

People need accommodation- and trying to pretend that Wexford, Portlaoise, Athlone and Cavan- are within commuting distance of Dublin- as some people are trying to say- is a load of bollox.

Dublin is a mess- however, the bigger issue is sprawl of low density developments- not high density living.

Ireland needs a coordinated development plan- for the country as a whole- the local authority system has patently failed- and to continue this experiment in local representation- is flogging a dead horse.

Millionaire only not · 09-12-2019 8:20pm

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And how many took it out for properties that were massively overpriced and have not recovered.

Very very few. So few it's not worth talking about.

But sure the suffering that few u talk about , what they have gone through or still going through!
Have a heart because banks won’t

enricoh · 09-12-2019 8:37pm

Was reading in the sunday Indo business section that 20% of new builds in estates are for sale 6 months or more at the minute.
A mate working on a few estates in meath was saying if you took all the social housing/ charity purchases out of the equation he'd be signing on by Christmas.
Is it squeaky bum time for builders paying off financiers? Will the mixers be getting knocked off in the new year? I reckon so, unless brexit has spooked punters temporarily.

al87987 · 09-12-2019 9:29pm

Lived in Knocklyon all my life and went to the school across the road from the proposed apartments.

They should absolutely build these apartments there, everybody my age, early 30's, wants to live in the area but cant afford the houses and are pushed out to hunters wood, kiltipper etc...

Would love an option to buy an apartment in the area.

Can cycle into town in 20 minutes as well and the 15 bus has recently gone 24/7.

Blowfish · 09-12-2019 9:44pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

We 100% do not need more housing estates- and if apartments were built and priced appropriately- would it be the end of the world.

al87987 wrote: »

Would love an option to buy an apartment in the area.

The thing is, if you look at what's planned, these won't help. Of the 590, 480 (~81%) are to be build to rent. Factor in 10% social housing and you have only around 50 actual apartments for sale.

JamesMason · 09-12-2019 11:21pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Just getting on the motorway from anywhere can take an hour in good weather in the morning- on a bad morning, its an outright nightmare.

We need high density housing units- ideally as close to the city centre as possible- and when they're on the outskirts- we need to make sure we develop viable public transport options. Facilities, services and amenities- will follow- if there is the demand for them (even in high density areas, there isn't always sufficient demand to support them).

We 100% do not need more housing estates- and if apartments were built and priced appropriately- would it be the end of the world.

People need accommodation- and trying to pretend that Wexford, Portlaoise, Athlone and Cavan- are within commuting distance of Dublin- as some people are trying to say- is a load of bollox.

Dublin is a mess- however, the bigger issue is sprawl of low density developments- not high density living.

Ireland needs a coordinated development plan- for the country as a whole- the local authority system has patently failed- and to continue this experiment in local representation- is flogging a dead horse.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/commuter-hell-my-daily-commute-is-affecting-my-mental-health-1.4109774?mode=amp
Something has got to give eventually...

Eric Cartman · 09-12-2019 11:43pm

JamesMason wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/commuter-hell-my-daily-commute-is-affecting-my-mental-health-1.4109774?mode=amp
Something has got to give eventually...

Commuting is just becoming too much of a nightmare for people. Especially as most of these new buyers are starting families, were a few years away from either half the workforce dissapearing to meet childcare needs or a black market creche industry appearing in kildare, wicklow meath and louth raising children who almost never see their parents.

hmmm · 10-12-2019 12:07am

The_Conductor wrote: »

We 100% do not need more housing estates- and if apartments were built and priced appropriately- would it be the end of the world.

I think we're getting there.

Despite all the criticism of Minister Murphy, he has done the right thing by changing the law to allow fast-track planning of apartments. I'm convinced that the housing problem in this country is our planning and objections, and that needs to be overcome. Most are currently build-to-rent because there are super-profits available, but as more supply comes on stream these profits will reduce and more will become available to buy. The important thing is that we build higher density in areas close to the city, and overcome the objections from people living in low-density areas.

I also think that Irish people are becoming more accepting of apartments, particularly as family composition change. There are a lot more childless families of two people. There are a lot more elderly people living on their own. There are lots of single and highly-paid workers. Many/most of those groups would be quite happy in an apartment with little in the way of maintenance.

We'll never have cheap housing - there are too many taxes and regulations - the regulations mostly being the right thing to do. However what we can have is an adequate supply where people want to live.

JamesMason · 10-12-2019 1:15am

hmmm wrote: »

I think we're getting there.

Despite all the criticism of Minister Murphy, he has done the right thing

.... Minister Murphy...lol. He will go down in infamy. Future episodes of Reeling in the years will not be kind to him.

Knex* · 10-12-2019 2:53pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Ireland needs a coordinated development plan- for the country as a whole- the local authority system has patently failed- and to continue this experiment in local representation- is flogging a dead horse.

Couldn't agree more on this. It's painstakingly clear at this point.

paulieeye · 10-12-2019 3:39pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Just getting on the motorway from anywhere can take an hour in good weather in the morning- on a bad morning, its an outright nightmare.

Definitely. The M50 ramp in question serves a large section of south west dublin. The apartments in question will sit on the road that serves this on ramp. This road is a single lane both sides. They have recently changed the roundabout beyond this to single lane, which when questioned about it said this was done on purpose to force people to cycle more (

)

You cant just build apartments where there is a space to, you have to have the infrastructure. By all means build these but please adjust the roads accordingly

ml100 · 10-12-2019 4:10pm

Put these apartments in the city centre where the people that want these apartments want to live!

beaz2018 · 10-12-2019 4:14pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Commuting is just becoming too much of a nightmare for people. Especially as most of these new buyers are starting families, were a few years away from either half the workforce dissapearing to meet childcare needs or a black market creche industry appearing in kildare, wicklow meath and louth raising children who almost never see their parents.

Is this commuter hell narrative just going to drive up the price of well located properties in Dublin? Or will supply in these areas eventually lead to a drop off everywhere inc Dublin?

The_Conductor · 10-12-2019 4:17pm

ml100 wrote: »

Put these apartments in the city centre where the people that want these apartments want to live!

Exactly.
However, the do-goodie greenies don't want to ruin our cityscape with high rise developments.
Someone needs to tell them to cop the hell on.
We need high rise, high density developments- as central as possible.

Kamili · 10-12-2019 4:27pm

paulieeye wrote: »

Definitely. The M50 ramp in question serves a large section of south west dublin. The apartments in question will sit on the road that serves this on ramp. This road is a single lane both sides. They have recently changed the roundabout beyond this to single lane, which when questioned about it said this was done on purpose to force people to cycle more ()

You cant just build apartments where there is a space to, you have to have the infrastructure. By all means build these but please adjust the roads accordingly

That roundabout is an absolute disaster in rush hour. Adding more cars right on it is a recipe for total gridlock. The bus service to the city centre is already beyond capacity and full by the time it hits that roundabout, so adding more homes in an already struggling area isnt going to work.

I'm all for building new houses/apartments but the infrastructure, public transport links and facilities need to be in place, or a plan made to put them in place, which is implemented!

Eric Cartman · 11-12-2019 3:14pm

beaz2018 wrote: »

Is this commuter hell narrative just going to drive up the price of well located properties in Dublin? Or will supply in these areas eventually lead to a drop off everywhere inc Dublin?

No because everyone who has already bought wants to pull the ladder behind them, keep prices high , preserve their ‘view’ and have less people using the services they enjoy. As long as we allow planning objections for such frivelous reasons we are doomed to have unaffordable prices and low supply levels in the city

radharc · 11-12-2019 4:13pm

hmmm wrote: »

I think we're getting there.

Despite all the criticism of Minister Murphy, he has done the right thing by changing the law to allow fast-track planning of apartments.

He didn't make any changes, Coveney had already introduced it before he left office.

Mic 1972 · 11-12-2019 7:19pm

A lot of companies are not even located in the city centre. People often want to live in the cc because it's cool, suburbs are considered dull
Living in cc is luxury, not always a necessity

The_Conductor · 11-12-2019 9:39pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A lot of companies are not even located in the city centre. People often want to live in the cc because it's cool, suburbs are considered dull
Living in cc is luxury, not always a necessity

A lot of people have copped that there is considerable misery in trying to live in the city centre- esp. if you've moved on from singleton and/or want to try to start a family. The city centre is no place for families or children- its a nightmare to navigate and devoid of affordable amenities or facilities for anyone other than ye 20 somethings who don't have a care in the world...........

Ziggy100 · 11-12-2019 9:57pm

New to tread but following a while.

Just looking at PPR today and total number of house sold in November is showing 3869.
This would represent about a 35% fall in registration from 2018.
Is there a lag in the register being updated? This seems like a very big drop on previous year if correct.

Graham · 11-12-2019 10:05pm

Ziggy100 wrote: »

Is there a lag in the register being updated?

Yes

Assetbacked · 11-12-2019 10:26pm

paulieeye wrote: »

Definitely. The M50 ramp in question serves a large section of south west dublin. The apartments in question will sit on the road that serves this on ramp. This road is a single lane both sides. They have recently changed the roundabout beyond this to single lane, which when questioned about it said this was done on purpose to force people to cycle more ()

You cant just build apartments where there is a space to, you have to have the infrastructure. By all means build these but please adjust the roads accordingly

How do you know the infrastructure won't evolve? This is necessarily a good development given we are in a crisis.if infrastructure needs to be upgraded, let it follow but it shouldn't hold up badly needed home building.

duffman13 · 11-12-2019 10:29pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

How do you know the infrastructure won't evolve? This is necessarily a good development given we are in a crisis.if infrastructure needs to be upgraded, let it follow but it shouldn't hold up badly needed home building.

Problem with Ireland is infrastructure shouldn't be following. We are in a crisis and in some way I'd agree with you but by God we can surely upgrade while we build. It's always reactive and that's what causes chaos

Property Market 2019

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