Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves · 06-08-2020 11:27pm

awec wrote: »

10k a year? 800 euro a month?

What sort of 20 year old do you think has that sort of cash to splash about?

I was not talking about a 20 year old but rather people in there 20's and not all but a good few and I know a few.

A coffee once a day 5 days a weeks cost 750 euro
Buying a sambo 3 time a week 350 euro
Lunch out once a week 500 euro per year
Night out pub, club, ride(taxi) home 100 euro, once a week for a year 5K
Snort of cocaine once a week 5K/year
Meal out ever fortnight @ 25 euro costs 650 euro a year
Weekend away abroad cheap budget 250-300 euro, expensive one 500+ two per year 600 euro
Holiday abroad 500-1000 including spending money
3 day stag in Ireland no C 500 euro with C add another 2-300 euro, add another 3-500 if in eastern Europe
2-3 concerts 200 a pop
Soccer or Heinken Cup match 500-1K

tobsey · 07-08-2020 12:03am

Mic 1972 wrote: »

If the government is printing a lot of money to pump into the system there will be high inflation. That was my point from the start.
Otherwise this will stay as they are and i'm more than happy with it

Governments have been printing money since the last crash and we’ve had virtually no inflation. The money they are pumping in now for Covid supports is replacing debt created by banks due to the lack of lending. There is nobody, anywhere, predicting high levels of inflation.

dwayneshintzy · 07-08-2020 9:17am

The average 20 something in Ireland is not spending €5k a year on cocaine, what a ridiculous thing to imply

brisan · 07-08-2020 9:27am

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

The average 20 something in Ireland is not spending €5k a year on cocaine, what a ridiculous thing to imply

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/cocaine-use-has-become-almost-like-having-a-packet-of-tayto-with-a-pint-1.4069643

https://www.thejournal.ie/drugs/news/

Well some body is

JimmyVik · 07-08-2020 9:31am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Everything is inconsequencal by itself but by adding everything up they make a difference.

The first main difference is building standard, insulation, climate change costs, and certifiacation has added 30-50K to the average house. 1980's standard finish compared to finished expected now has added about another 30K to the standard house.

Things like stag's latte's, meals out, holidays etc etc may cost the average 20 year old 10-15K a year. In the 1980's a Thursday night out was 5 pints and somebody drove home after. We might call to Kranks corner but only might. There was no 100 euro for a snort of Cocaine and we might hit Poldarks Saturday night if we were around and not gone home.

3rd year apprentice on 40K and if his Girlfriend was on the same after tax saving one wage for 4 years is 127K. 3.5X80K =240K. That a total of 367K without an exemption, add in an exemption and you are hitting 400K

And there is another bidder. If a bidder tried to a stunt like that on me I sell for less to other bidder rather than sell him the house.

People often forget the costs involved Survey and vauluation 1.5-2K nowadays, legal fees another 1-2K which you may have to pay if you do not complete the deal

That was after you met all your mates (all the ones who didnt emigrate) after collecting each of your doles (about £50 per week) because there were hardly any jobs and hadnt been for years.

Ursabear · 07-08-2020 9:39am

In the 80s my parents bought their house on just my father's salary 4 years after finishing university. Plenty of my friends now out of college, over a decade, cannot afford to buy yet as the 3.5 multiplier / being single makes it difficult to find anything suitable. The couple argument is frustrating when you are comparing the 80 s to now as plenty of single salary families bought then and there is a huge amount more people remaining single these days.

Bass Reeves · 07-08-2020 9:45am

JimmyVik wrote: »

That was after you met all your mates (all the ones who didnt emigrate) after collecting each of your doles (about £50 per week) because there were hardly any jobs and hadnt been for years.

Never on the dole worked for 40 years in a technical area. Lad the same year as me in school stay at home during the early 80's he was making in a low paid job along with money at turf, timber and tractor work. Laughing at any lad away found a trade or a trading course. By the late 80's he was unemployed while the rest of us ploughed on with our careers. I semi retired now have not come across him down at home in 25+ years

GreeBo · 07-08-2020 9:47am

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A lady that lives close to me got her house valued last year 390k - its beautiful and had 180k worth of work including a double extension and redecoration.

The same estate agent told her 320k is the price now last week.

Thats D7 though because i know other posters were mentioning other areas are doing better than ever.

Personally i'm looking at D11 and prices have dropped 5% in the last 3 months according to myhome.ie

180K is an awful lot of work for a house supposedly worth only 320K.
What are the prices in the area, you never want to be the best house in your area IMO, you want people to see value in purchasing yours.

GreeBo · 07-08-2020 9:51am

Pelezico wrote: »

35 falls today and 6 rises.

That is a new high.

I will keep an eye on supply. It us likely that more houses will come on the market in Autumn with the traditional.autimn selling season.

Without having the context of original prices and comparable actual sales for each house, drops or increases are meaningless tbh.

For example, the couple of houses I listed previously in Rathfarnham area, not since peak celtic tiger would 2 of those prices be realistic, so the asking should decrease, but that doesnt automatically mean the market is dropping, it could be rising more slowly or stagnating.

JJJackal · 07-08-2020 9:59am

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A lady that lives close to me got her house valued last year 390k - its beautiful and had 180k worth of work including a double extension and redecoration.

The same estate agent told her 320k is the price now last week.

Thats D7 though because i know other posters were mentioning other areas are doing better than ever.

Personally i'm looking at D11 and prices have dropped 5% in the last 3 months according to myhome.ie

180K is alot of work alright for at 320K house - you never see the value in extensive expensive renovations in the sales price.

M256 · 07-08-2020 9:59am

The Belly wrote: »

Where's the high inflation? we are looking at deflation going forward.

Are you suggesting that consumer prices will fall?

Vikings · 07-08-2020 10:03am

After reading some of the crap posted here over the last few pages I had to look at the title of the post again.

Housing and lifestyle from the 80's has absolutely no relevance or bearing on the property market of 2020.

I bought a house 10 years ago and the same reasons people are using to not buy today are the same reasons people were saying back then not to buy. Prices will fall!

And they did fall, they were right. I bought mid 2010 and prices did fall more. And they went back up again too. So here I am with a chunk of equity, a garden with a for sale sign in it and offers in on a bigger property.

If that property loses value by 10-20% it means very little to me as I can service the mortgage and will have no intention to ever move again.

There are plenty of others in my position. Houses are selling. Good quality houses are selling faster than good quality houses are coming available.

Not everyone wants a new build. And people aren't selling their homes because of the covid downturn, after all, why would they when it would take so long to have the bank take it?

coolshannagh28 · 07-08-2020 10:05am

Gold is holding at over $2000 an ounce , this has more relevance to Irish property prices than much of this discussion.

Bass Reeves · 07-08-2020 10:07am

GreeBo wrote: »

180K is an awful lot of work for a house supposedly worth only 320K.
What are the prices in the area, you never want to be the best house in your area IMO, you want people to see value in purchasing yours.

Blame Dermot Bannon. However when you consider the cost of moving house between buying and selling costs, maybe renting for 6-12 months if unable to synchronise sale and purchase lots of people opt to revamp there own.

You forget in this case they probably intended to stay there for the rest of there lives. It was going to be there forever home. Then there marriage fell appart. Either party in the relationship should make sure the other party is not pulling the wool over there eyes with regards to purchasing the house at below cost by getting an EA to under value.

If that is not the case both should make sure the EA is not undervaluing to give a friend a cheap property.

If I was with if the parties presuming that there is a loan for the upgrade I offer to take up the loan and give the other partner 50% if the remaining value. Assuming a 150k loan taking it away from 320 leaves 170 in equity. Either partner would have the house for 235k mortgage repayments 1000/month over 30years. That off the top of my head.

The Belly · 07-08-2020 10:09am

M256 wrote: »

Are you suggesting that consumer prices will fall?

Yes

MacronvFrugals · 07-08-2020 10:11am

JJJackal wrote: »

180K is alot of work alright for at 320K house - you never see the value in extensive expensive renovations in the sales price.

GreeBo wrote: »

180K is an awful lot of work for a house supposedly worth only 320K.
What are the prices in the area, you never want to be the best house in your area IMO, you want people to see value in purchasing yours.

Agree with both you guys, theres a ceiling on houses in this area no matter what they're like condition wise but i believe last year she would have got closer to the 370-380k mark as prices were bidding quite a bit over asking price especially for the nicer houses.

The Belly · 07-08-2020 10:12am

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Gold is holding at over $2000 an ounce , this has more relevance to Irish property prices than much of this discussion.

It's a very good gauge of sentiment in the dollar. Normally the fed would hammer paper gold as it normally does but that doesnt seem to be working recently. Silver is flying up too nearly doubled over the last few months

lomb · 07-08-2020 10:41am

Ursabear wrote: »

In the 80s my parents bought their house on just my father's salary 4 years after finishing university. Plenty of my friends now out of college, over a decade, cannot afford to buy yet as the 3.5 multiplier / being single makes it difficult to find anything suitable. The couple argument is frustrating when you are comparing the 80 s to now as plenty of single salary families bought then and there is a huge amount more people remaining single these days.

Exactly my research on it was my dad paid 60k for his house in 1990 and watched it climb to 800 by 2006 and is 600 today in 2020.
The reality is he had his mortgage paid in a few years and then lived the life of Riley. He bought several other properties one for 25k in 1983 that went to 450 and is now at 300. All paid in a few years.
Ive said this for some time but the young will never have it as good as the previous generation. The future for the West is bleak, its all downhill unless you like being a consumer in which case its never been better, but its terrible to be a producer. If you wanted to take matters into your own hands I would today if I was early 20s, gets some online skills in ecommerce/affliate marketing and head to SE Asia to cut costs get the rent down to 100 a month to free up time and allow 100% focus and work on your laptop lifestyle business . When you have a business cash flowing a minimum profit of 100+k but probably more like 200k pa then Id consider returning if I felt like it.
The only thing here is debt and taxes (and death but that happens anyway)

coolshannagh28 · 07-08-2020 11:29am

lomb wrote: »

Exactly my research on it was my dad paid 60k for his house in 1990 and watched it climb to 800 by 2006 and is 600 today in 2020.
The reality is he had his mortgage paid in a few years and then lived the life of Riley. He bought several other properties one for 25k in 1983 that went to 450 and is now at 300. All paid in a few years.
Ive said this for some time but the young will never have it as good as the previous generation. The future for the West is bleak, its all downhill unless you like being a consumer in which case its never been better, but its terrible to be a producer. If you wanted to take matters into your own hands I would today if I was early 20s, gets some online skills in ecommerce/affliate marketing and head to SE Asia to cut costs get the rent down to 100 a month to free up time and allow 100% focus and work on your laptop lifestyle business . When you have a business cash flowing a minimum profit of 100+k but probably more like 200k pa then Id consider returning if I felt like it.
The only thing here is debt and taxes (and death but that happens anyway)

Inflation is a two edged sword.

tobsey · 07-08-2020 11:51am

Ursabear wrote: »

In the 80s my parents bought their house on just my father's salary 4 years after finishing university. Plenty of my friends now out of college, over a decade, cannot afford to buy yet as the 3.5 multiplier / being single makes it difficult to find anything suitable. The couple argument is frustrating when you are comparing the 80 s to now as plenty of single salary families bought then and there is a huge amount more people remaining single these days.

That’s another cock up of the FF 97-09 governments, tax individualisation. It made it almost impossible to have a single income household, and the extra income into households helped blow the bubble much bigger.

Now it’s mandatory to have two incomes unless the one is in the top 1% or 2%.

Bass Reeves · 07-08-2020 12:44pm

tobsey wrote: »

That’s another cock up of the FF 97-09 governments, tax individualisation. It made it almost impossible to have a single income household, and the extra income into households helped blow the bubble much bigger.

Now it’s mandatory to have two incomes unless the one is in the top 1% or 2%.

Pre tax individualisation, and double tax allowances, there was only a single and married tax allowance. A married couple only got an allowance about 1.5 times a single allowance. A court case in the late 80's changed this so that everybody only had a single allowance. All the FF government is changed the system slightly to so tahatwhere a couple worked they received a benefit of the extra costs involved

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 2:09pm

Bank of Ireland said “the decision to leave Burlington Plaza 2, which is normally the base for about 700 people, was not a direct result of the Covid-19 outbreak.” The article in The Times today under the Irish section but it won’t let me add in the link here.

ELM327 · 07-08-2020 2:11pm

link but behind paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-ireland-quits-city-centre-office-tk39txpds

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 2:14pm

In The Times today, it reported that AIB forecasts that “Irish house prices will drop by almost 6 per cent this year and about 5 per cent next year before returning to growth in 2022.” Not allowed to add the link but it’s in today’s The Times under the Irish section.

PropQueries · 07-08-2020 2:16pm

It's behind a paywall, but you can read the first three paragraphs before asking to sign in.

JJJackal · 07-08-2020 2:19pm

PropQueries wrote: »

In The Times today, it reported that AIB forecasts that “Irish house prices will drop by almost 6 per cent this year and about 5 per cent next year before returning to growth in 2022.” Not allowed to add the link but it’s in today’s The Times under the Irish section.

That sounds plausible

Pelezico · 07-08-2020 2:20pm

Of course property will fall. We have massive unemployment and an equally massive e deficit.

10% fall in say fifteen months is the equivalent of 35k for my son.

Himself and the girlfriend can save another 35k so that's a nice start in life.

Graham · 07-08-2020 2:32pm

PropQueries wrote: »

In The Times today, it reported that AIB forecasts that “Irish house prices will drop by almost 6 per cent this year and about 5 per cent next year before returning to growth in 2022.” Not allowed to add the link but it’s in today’s The Times under the Irish section.

That would be quite be disappointing for those waiting for the apocalypse where they can pick up a house for half the current price.

Cyrus · 07-08-2020 2:34pm

I like rathgar and i like this style of house but its small and overpriced imo, needs another 300k spent minimum

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-rostrevor-road-rathgar-dublin-6-d06-f3c2/4446351

Its warm apparently

D2 BER

JimmyVik · 07-08-2020 2:35pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Of course property will fall. We have massive unemployment and an equally massive e deficit.

10% fall in say fifteen months is the equivalent of 35k for my son.

Himself and the girlfriend can save another 35k so that's a nice start in life.

10% is my trigger point too.
Actually might wait for 9% since there will be a lot of people waiting for 10% and might as well get in before the competition

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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