Snap contest -- predict results of beast 2.0 (noon Saturday deadline)

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2018 12:38am #1

Okay, enough speculation, time to give it your best shot, and give us the outline of how this Beast 2.0 outbreak will pan out (I was bread for this kind of work) ...

:pac::):rolleyes::):pac:

The contest will be based on five questions with points equal for each answer, points to be determined as shown after each question.

There will be a strict noon Saturday deadline, in fact if a moderator could assist by locking the thread at 1201 then re-open Sunday afternoon for commentary, that would be excellent.

CONTEST QUESTIONS AND POINTS (each worth 20 max)

1. Predict the deepest snow reported by any boards poster, at locations below 300 metres asl, at any point during the event. This must be new snow with a reliable measurement (photo of ruler in snow and comments on techniques useful). This should be an average of snow at your location avoiding drifts and spots blown bare. ... Score will be 20 minus error in cm ... forecast should be in whole number of cm ... for the contest, all entries and measurements will be rounded to nearest cm.

2. Predict the deepest snow reported at either Dublin A or Casement in their regular reporting (counting on GL to keep an eye on this) ... same comments about scoring and whole numbers of cm as in part one above.

3. Predict the first hour and minute when a boards poster located in Ireland reports thunder and/or lightning (subject to verification, e.g., not a power transformer or neighbour dropping large object on your ceiling). Points here will be 20 minus one per ten minutes elapsed time so to score anything you will need to be within 3h 20 min of the first report. If you go for "no reports" you get 20 if that verifies. If there is a credible report timed before the deadline, then the contest will verify the first report after the deadline.

4. Predict the strongest wind gust during the event (1200h Saturday to whatever time Monday the winds die down) in knots (take half of what you expect in km/h if not familiar with knots) at any of the regular reporting sites in Ireland (these include 25 locations in the latest weather section of the met.ie website). Your score will be 15 minus one per error in knots (e.g., you predict 45, actual is 48, you score 12). Also, predict the location (you'll get five points for being correct, three if you choose the second highest gust location, two for third and one point for fourth highest). No offshore reports including Fastnet will qualify, must be one of the 25 met.ie reporting sites.

5. Predict the lowest temperature at any of these 25 locations by Tuesday mid-day (to be confirmed if Tuesday on Wednesday morning in the 'yesterday weather" section of the met.ie website). You can give this in tenths of a degree Celsius. Score will be 15 minus one for each 0.2 error (any further increment of 0.1 not charged so a perfect forecast can be 0.1 either side of what is reported. Also predict the location (same scoring rules as for the wind gust in 4).

Here's my forecast to get this started, would appreciate if you could make yours look like mine in terms of format, makes the table easier to build.

M.T. Cranium ______ 38 _ 12 _ 1730 Sat _ 54 Roches Pt _ --10.7 Ballyhaise

=======================================

good luck and have fun with this.

I will convert any location guesses to nearest actual qualifying location if you specify a location that is not in the met.ie list of 25 locations.

If you want to say where you think the poster with greatest reported snow depth is located, that can go in a separate comment, we will be at the mercy of likely candidates to choose whether to report or not, no report, no guessing what they might have had ... my guess is either Sunsnow if he isn't too high up the hill, or somebody in north Kildare.

sdanseo · 17-03-2018 1:13am

sdanseo ______ 25 _ 16 _ 2000 Sat _ 46 Dublin Airport _ --9.0 Oak Park

bazlers · 17-03-2018 1:37am

Bazler______25__14__2130sat__50Dublin Airport__-8 Mullingar

Pherekydes · 17-03-2018 1:39am

Pherekydes________ 22 _ 11 _ 1335 Sat _ 48 Sherkin___ --7.7 Mullingar

Rougies · 17-03-2018 1:45am

Rougies ______ 30 _ 16 _ No reports _ 48 Dublin Airport _ -7.6 Dunsany

EDIT: For poster reporting the greatest snow depth, I'd have to go with somebody on the northeastern slopes of the Dub/Wicklow mountains. I'll go with kittyn.

Neddyusa · 17-03-2018 1:46am

Neddyusa ______ 42 _ 14 _ 1850 Sat _ 48 Roches Pt _ -8.7 Mullingar

nacho libre · 17-03-2018 1:53am

Nacho Libre______30__15__18:35sat__52 Roches Pt __-7.5 JOHNSTOWN CASTLE

BLIZZARD7 · 17-03-2018 1:54am

BLIZZARD7 ______ 43 _ 22 _ 1745 Sat _ 52 Dublin AP_ --11.3C Ballyhaise

I'm guessing max reported snow depths in the Blessington to Naas sort of vicinity.

Edit: looking at it a bit more I think Rougies might be right, slacker winds and a touch more NE might deliver highest totals to kittyn/weatherfiend or one of the posters up close to Glencullen. I suspect Rougies and DOCARCH will have very decent totals too.

Rikand · 17-03-2018 1:59am

Rikand ____ 30 ___ 15 ___ 2222 Sat ___ 55 Knock ___ -7.5 Mount Dillon

Pwindedd · 17-03-2018 2:15am

oooh fun...

Pwindedd______21__19__1425 Sat__57 Johnstown Castle__-9.3 Malin Head

pauldry · 17-03-2018 2:15am

Pauldry______ 14 _ 10 _ No reports _ 51 Dublin Airport _ -7.3 Mullingar

pauldry · 17-03-2018 2:16am

Also as im in Santry this weekend ill use my loaf and bring a ruler and some slICEd pan

Gaoth Laidir · 17-03-2018 2:27am

Gaoth Laidir ______ 22 _ 7 _ 1930 Sat _ 49 Casement _ --5.5 Casement

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2018 10:52am

I just took a look at who's on line and none of our mods appear to be on at the moment, if one of them happens to be on around 1200h could somebody who entered this contest give them a shout to lock the thread? Thanks. It is 0300h where I am, and I think I will stagger off to bed before this gets really active later today to get some beauty rest (and I need a lot).

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2018 4:08pm

Okay, now I am quite beautiful (*not*) and will declare the contest CLOSED ... further posting should be about results not new forecasts.

Here is a table of entries, thanks for entering with such uniform attention to the format, saves me a bit o' time.

The forecasts are presented in order of maximum snow, if the others fall in any sort of order that will be interesting. Our consensus shown at the end of the table is the average, location is not shown, there are few enough entries that most are unique.

Beast 2.0 -- The Forecasts

FORECASTER ____ Snow _ Dub/Cas ___ First T ___ Max gust _ loc'n ___ Min temp _ loc'n

BLIZZARD7 ______43 _____ 22 _____ 1745 Sat ____ 52 __ Dub A ____--11.3 __ Ballyhaise

Neddyusa _______ 42 _____ 14 _____ 1850 Sat ____ 48 __ Roches Pt __--8.7 __ Mullingar

M.T. Cranium ____ 38 _____ 12 _____ 1730 Sat ____ 54 __ Roches Pt _--10.7 __ Ballyhaise

Rougies ________ 30 _____ 16 _____ No reports ___ 48 __ Dub A _____ --7.6 __ Dunsany

Nacho Libre _____ 30 _____ 15 _____ 1835 Sat ____ 52 __ Roches Pt __ --7.5 __ Johnstown C

Rikand _________ 30 _____ 15 _____ 2222 Sat ____ 55 __ Knock _____ --7.5 __ Mountdillon

sdanseo ________ 25 _____ 16_____ 2000 Sat ____ 46 __ Dub A _____ --9.0 __ Oak Park

Bazler__________ 25 _____ 14 _____ 2130 Sat ____ 50 __ Dub A _____ --8.0 __ Mullingar

Pherekydes _____ 22 _____ 11 _____ 1335 Sat ____ 48 __ Sherkin ____ --7.7 __ Mullingar

Gaoth Laidir _____ 22 ______ 7 _____ 1930 Sat ____ 49 __ Casement __ --5.5 __ Casement

Pwindedd _______ 21 _____ 19 _____ 1425 Sat ____ 57 __Johnstown C _ --9.3 __ Malin Head

Pauldry _________14 _____ 10 _____ No reports ___ 51 __ Dub A _____ --7.3 __ Mullingar

consensus ______ 29 _____ 14 _____ 1824 Sat ____ 51 __ -- -- _______ --8.3 __ -- -- ___

_________________________________________________________________________________

Notes:

1. Ten of twelve forecasters predicted lightning/thunder, two did not.

2. The selections for location were as follows

(a) For max gust, 5 picked Dublin A, 3 chose Roches Point, and 1 each for Sherkin, Casement, Johnstown Castle, and Knock.

(b) for lowest min temp, 4 picked Mullingar, 2 chose Ballyhaise, 1 each for Malin Head, Oak Park, Johnstown Castle, Dunsany, Casement and Mountdillon.

Thanks for participating.

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2018 1:58am

Okay, Boards poster "esposito" reported thunder at 0035h. Think that will qualify a few for points but it's a bit later than our consensus or even the latest forecast. If this report is in doubt, discuss ... it seems to fit the radar and report at Casement of "heavy hail."

Only two would score points under the rules, rikand gets 7/20 and bazler 2/20.

Maybe it would be more fair to award them 12 and 7 (same differential) and then go 5,4,3,2,1 for the next five closest times. Early times and no reports would get zero.

If you're in the contest, thank this post if you agree with that idea. Depending on response I may just go with the 7 and 2 and all zeros for the rest. My bad for not thinking about this possibility when I made the contest rules. I think I was expecting a wider spread of times TBH.

Rougies · 18-03-2018 2:30am

Agreed, but if it comes down to this one report I will be contacting pauldry about some "matters". :pac:

sdanseo · 18-03-2018 3:25am

Just for clarity, my forecasts were in mm of snow. :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2018 7:30am

well you just have to get lucky in one spot, and the way the radar looks upstream, that one spot may be Wexford (again).

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2018 4:47pm

The deepest snow reported unless I missed one, appears to be 17 cm.

The max snow at Casement (or Dublin) as per GL hourly reports on the thread was 5 cm.

Yesterday the max wind gust appears to be 45 knots at Malin Head. Dublin's report is missing from the yesterday's weather roundup but I am fairly sure I saw 42 knots on hourlies and that would be second highest as all the other gust-reporting locations are present in the table. Mace Head is third at 39 knots. I have not seen anything higher on hourlies today so far.

If those values hold up most of the scoring can be estimated now and we're just waiting for the lowest temperature which I think will be on Tuesday morning but could be tomorrow morning.

Please post if you have any evidence for higher values than any of the above.

nacho libre · 18-03-2018 5:07pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The deepest snow reported unless I missed one, appears to be 17 cm.

The max snow at Casement (or Dublin) as per GL hourly reports on the thread was 5 cm.
.

Please post if you have any evidence for higher values than any of the above.

I recorded a wind speed of 50 knots this morning from last night's guinness. Does that count?:o

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2018 9:06pm

Based on the values mentioned in my previous post, these are the scores before the temperature portion of the contest. Those forecasts remain in the scoring table below. The order has been changed to show total points so far.

Provisional scoring before MIN TEMP is determined

FORECASTER ___ Snow _ Dub/Cas _ First T _ Max gust _ loc'n __ Min temp _ loc'n _____ TOTAL so far

Gaoth Laidir _____ 15 _____ 18 _____ 04 ____ 16 ____ 01 _____ --5.5 __ Casement _____ 54

Pauldry _________17 _____ 15 _____ 00 ____ 14 ____ 03 _____ --7.3 __ Mullingar ______ 49

sdanseo ________ 12 _____ 09 _____ 05 ____ 19 ____ 03 _____ --9.0 __ Oak Park ______ 48

Bazler__________ 12 _____ 11 _____ 07 ____ 15 ____ 03 _____ --8.0 __ Mullingar ______ 48

Pherekydes _____ 15 _____ 14 _____ 00 ____ 17 ____ 00 _____ --7.7 __ Mullingar ______ 46

Rikand _________ 07 _____ 10 _____ 12 ____ 10 ____ 00 _____ --7.5 __ Mountdillon ____ 39

__ consensus ____08 _____ 11 _____ 02 ____ 14 ____ 03 _____ --8.3 __ -- -- __________ 38

Rougies ________ 07 _____ 09 _____ 00 ____ 17 ____ 03 _____ --7.6 __ Dunsany ______ 36

Nacho Libre _____ 07 _____ 10 _____ 02 ____ 13 ____ 00 _____ --7.5 __ Johnstown C ___ 32

Neddyusa _______ 00 _____ 11 _____ 03 ____ 17 ____ 00 ______--8.7 __ Mullingar _____ 31

Pwindedd _______ 16 _____ 06 _____ 00 ____ 08 ____ 00 _____ --9.3 __ Malin Head _____30

M.T. Cranium ____ 00 _____ 13 _____ 00 ____ 11 ____ 00 _____--10.7 __ Ballyhaise ____ 24

BLIZZARD7 ______00 _____ 03 _____ 01 ____ 13 ____ 03 ______--11.3 __ Ballyhaise ___ 20
__________________________________________________________________________________

These scores are all subject to review when all data are in.

Looks like the temperature forecasts will decide the actual order of finish but the bottom five probably can't catch all the forecasters ahead of them even with a perfect shout.

M.T. Cranium · 20-03-2018 3:55pm

I will have to wait until tomorrow when exact numbers are available to determine the exact number of points for the minimum and the location. Remember, it's a more generous scoring system than we use in our monthly contest, 1 point removed for every 0.2 error (with a 0.1 freebie) from the 15 available, and then location goes 5, 3, 2, 1 for four coldest, nobody chose Markree so the most that Mullingar or Mountdillon can provide would be 3.

It's going to be very close depending on what Markree had to the nearest decimal point. Pauldry and Rikand look likely to move up but whether they overtake GL at 54 points is not quite clear to me from the numbers I saw last night. I don't think Rikand (39) can catch Pauldry (49) with so little difference in their temperature forecast although I suspect Mountdillon is worth either 2 or 3 points and Mullingar probably won't be fourth so zero. Bazler can also win this if the low reported is -7.9 or lower. So check in tomorrow and I'll have this worked out. Also, I don't have any reason to change any of the other determinations for scoring, having heard nothing anywhere to support any different values than those utilized.

M.T. Cranium · 21-03-2018 10:27am

Now have the temperature data from Tuesday morning. Lowest was -6.9 C at Markree. That location would be worth five points but nobody chose it. Mountdillon was second coldest at --5.7 C (Rikand had that location for 3 points). Third coldest was Gurteen at --5.6, worth two points, again nobody chose this one. Fourth coldest was Athenry at --5.4 also not picked. Ballyhaise and Casement were close behind at --5.0 together with Dublin A. Other locations chosen were Mullingar (--4.5), Dunsany (-4.4) and Oak Park (--2.4) ... Malin Head and Johnstown Castle were among the milder locations just below freezing (at some point during the spell).

This allows me to complete the table of scoring as follows ...

Beast 2.0 _ Final Contest Scoring

FORECASTER ___ Snow _ Dub/Cas _ First T _ Max gust _ loc'n _ Min temp_loc'n __ TOTAL

Gaoth Laidir _____ 15 _____ 18 _____ 04 ____ 16 ____ 01 _____ 13 __ 00 ____ 67

Pauldry _________17 _____ 15 _____ 00 ____ 14 ____ 03 _____ 18 __ 00 ____ 67

Bazler__________ 12 _____ 11 _____ 07 ____ 15 ____ 03 _____ 15 __ 00 ____ 63

Pherekydes _____ 15 _____ 14 _____ 00 ____ 17 ____ 00 _____ 16 __ 00 ____ 62

Rikand _________ 07 _____ 10 _____ 12 ____ 10 ____ 00 _____ 17 __ 03 ____ 59

sdanseo ________ 12 _____ 09 _____ 05 ____ 19 ____ 03 _____ 10 __ 00 ____ 58

Rougies ________ 07 _____ 09 _____ 00 ____ 17 ____ 03 _____ 17 __ 00 ____ 53

__ consensus ____08 _____ 11 _____ 02 ____ 14 ____ 03 _____ 13 __ 00 ____ 51

Nacho Libre _____ 07 _____ 10 _____ 02 ____ 13 ____ 00 _____ 17 __ 00 ____ 49

Neddyusa _______ 00 _____ 11 _____ 03 ____ 17 ____ 00 _____11 __ 00 ____ 42

Pwindedd _______ 16 _____ 06 _____ 00 ____ 08 ____ 00 _____ 08 __ 00 ____ 38

M.T. Cranium ____ 00 _____ 13 _____ 00 ____ 11 ____ 00 _____ 01 __ 00 ____ 25

BLIZZARD7 ______00 _____ 03 _____ 01 ____ 13 ____ 03 _____ 00 __ 00 ____ 20

__________________________________________________________________________________

So, it all came out as a tie between Gaoth Laidir and Pauldry who were both in the same ball park on most of the forecasts, going a bit more conservative than most of us, which turned out to be the right call for all elements. Bazler was not far behind in third place.

Thanks for taking part, and well done to the top half of the table.

Pherekydes · 21-03-2018 2:50pm

Woohoo, promoted to the top tier!

And now for my next prediction...

Snap contest -- predict results of beast 2.0 (noon Saturday deadline)

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