Are there too many weather warnings?

30-12-2017 10:22am

Odelay wrote: »

Can you give me a couple of examples of warnings met eireann got wrong?

There was both an Orange severe wind and Orange torrential rain (and risk of flooding) warning for the North West on Christmas Eve . I was concerned as I was driving there from Drogheda to spend Christmas .

There was no wind - almost dead calm the whole trip (11am-3.30pm) and the only rain was persistent drizzle from Monaghan up. Dirty driving conditions but nothing I haven’t encountered many times before . Yet the weather forecast had almost made me cancel the trip!

Clonmel1000 · 30-12-2017 10:23am

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I would imagine Met Eireann will be very reluctant to go down the red warning route considering the fact that the last time red warnings were issued for Storm Ophelia, the vast majority of the country didn’t experience any severe weather, leaving Met Eireann looking as having gotten it wrong. Anyway unless winds are going to exceed 160kmph, which they won’t, an orange is sufficient. The current threshold of 130kmph for a red warning is to low in my opinion. Whole warning system needs revision.

Who thinks ME got Ophelia wrong? I think they played a blinder there. This was discussed here and elsewhere a lot following the storm and the overwhelming majority had no issue whatsoever with their forecasts and warnings.

Roger_007 · 30-12-2017 10:23am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They are probably updating.

There is currently a yellow warning and orange marine warning.

They need a new website desperately. The current one is dated and warnings should not be offline while being updated.

You'd better check again. The national warning is gone back to ORANGE.
So the national warnings have gone from ORANGE to NONE to YELLOW and back to ORANGE, all in the space of a couple of hours.
I don't think the website is to blame.

DOCARCH · 30-12-2017 10:26am

Roger_007 wrote: »

You'd better check again. The national warning is gone back to ORANGE.

Not a national orange warning. Orange warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath, Meath and Clare.

Kermit.de.frog · 30-12-2017 10:27am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The new website is imminent. Hopefully a new warning system too.

They would want to hurry up.

I'd like to see more direct model feeds and interaction ability.

All sorts of things I can think of they should have in a new site. Hope they oblige - don't think they have much of a choice with the resources openly available now.

Roger_007 · 30-12-2017 10:34am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not a national orange warning. Orange warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath, Meath and Clare.

So, when they put a warning in the box entitled NATIONAL, it doesn't really mean national?
I'm glad you cleared that up.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-12-2017 10:36am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They would want to hurry up.

I'd like to see more direct model feeds and interaction ability.

All sorts of things I can think of they should have in a new site. Hope they oblige - don't think they have much of a choice with the resources openly available now.

We all had our chance to give them our shopping list a year or two back so hopefully we'll get something good from it all. It sure is a 1990s site at the moment.

piuswal · 30-12-2017 11:22am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They would want to hurry up.

I'd like to see more direct model feeds and interaction ability.

All sorts of things I can think of they should have in a new site. Hope they oblige - don't think they have much of a choice with the resources openly available now.

What do you mean by "more direct model feeds etc"?

And by "don't think they have much of a choice etc"?

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 12:35pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There was both an Orange severe wind and Orange torrential rain (and risk of flooding) warning for the North West on Christmas Eve . I was concerned as I was driving there from Drogheda to spend Christmas .

There was no wind - almost dead calm the whole trip (11am-3.30pm) and the only rain was persistent drizzle from Monaghan up. Dirty driving conditions but nothing I haven’t encountered many times before . Yet the weather forecast had almost made me cancel the trip!

They were yellow warnings. Big difference in yellow and orange. If the 2 young men in Mayo paid attention to the yellow 'be aware' reminder they'd probably be alive today.

30-12-2017 4:08pm

nagdefy wrote: »

They were yellow warnings. Big difference in yellow and orange. If the 2 young men in Mayo paid attention to the yellow 'be aware' reminder they'd probably be alive today.

I’m sorry but apart from these warnings for Christmas Eve Jean Byrne was on the night before talking about severe winds , torrential rain and risk of flooding (in the North West ) for the 2 days of Christmas .
NONE of that happened , in fact we had the most beautiful clear calm weather and enjoyed some fabulous walks in winter sunshine out in Glenveagh !

I’m not complaining but how and why are the forecasts so often “off”?

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 4:25pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’m sorry but apart from these warnings for Christmas Eve Jean Byrne was on the night before talking about severe winds , torrential rain and risk of flooding (in the North West ) for the 2 days of Christmas .
NONE of that happened , in fact we had the most beautiful clear calm weather and enjoyed some fabulous walks in winter sunshine out in Glenveagh !

I’m not complaining but how and why are the forecasts so often “off”?

Yellow warnings are to make people aware. A lot of rain fell in the night time over Christmas eve. That normally fordable river in Mayo wasn't fordable.

I find the yellow warnings very useful for agriculture. For example you know if heavy rainfall is coming you may have to clear out slurry tanks quickly. Otherwise your land may not be trafficable to spread it and slurry will overflow from tanks and cause pollution.

In that instance a heavy fall of rain is dangerous to certain individuals at a particular time. Even though the size of the fall is pretty normal.

Glenveigh mightn't have received a third of the rain that fell locally in that area of Mayo. Like heavy shower activity can vary from area to area.

We need to get away from very local, my home thinking. Also how the weather may not affect the activity i'm involved in, driving certain routes for example, but may affect other local roads near rivers, other occupations etc.

In my opinion Met E do a wonderful job.

Oneiric 3 · 30-12-2017 5:02pm

One thing that pees me off about these warnings is the 'vagueness' that is applied when it comes to regions. For example, there is an 'Orange' warning for the whole of Connacht for later on tonight for gusts of up to 125 km, when in reality gusts like this from such a relatively minor feature tend to be reserved exposed coastal regions:

I think most of us in the east Galway, east Mayo and Roscommon/Leitrim region - which makes up the greater part of Connacht - are realistically unlikely to see both the mean speeds and gust speeds that are being forecast in the current warning. There seems to be a strange assumption that the climate and weather of Connacht is uniform and similar to that of the outer coastal headlands. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Gaoth Laidir · 30-12-2017 5:15pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One thing that pees me off about these warnings is the 'vagueness' that is applied when it comes to regions. For example, there is an 'Orange' warning for the whole of Connacht for later on tonight for gusts of up to 125 km, when in reality gusts like this from such a relatively minor feature tend to be reserved exposed coastal regions:

I think most of us in the east Galway, east Mayo and Roscommon/Leitrim region - which makes up the greater part of Connacht - are realistically unlikely to see both the mean speeds and gust speeds that are being forecast in the current warning. There seems to be a strange assumption that the climate and weather of Connacht is uniform and similar to that of the outer coastal headlands. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Yes, and the same can be said for the national Red for Ophelia, not go go over that trodden ground again. Warnings should be reserved for extraordinary weather events, not daily weather, for which Yellows are being issued daily.

They say they're issuing now based more on impact than on actual figures. Well, for the northwest, 120 km/h is bread and butter for these hardy folk. No trees in leaf, etc., and as Donegal Storm said earlier, it's a standard winter gale.

I think the current Orange criteria should actually be the start of Yellow, etc

Oneiric 3 · 30-12-2017 8:53pm

nagdefy wrote: »

Of course we all want to know our local forecast but it's not nonsense to understand that this is difficult to forecast. And i was referring to the broader context of people saying Ophelia was little more than a gale when others were so badly hit. Of course the warning system needs tweaking but there are far more positives than negatives.

Noted i've been accused of nonsense and pomposity by you.

i take your point, but at a guess, I would propose that a greater part of the country was less affected by 'Ophelia' than was directly impacted by it to any significant degree. Of course, I am open to being corrected as I don't have the wind stats at hand at the mo.

dmc17 · 30-12-2017 8:55pm

nacho libre wrote: »

What kind of thinking is this? 3 people lost their lives. Was it much ado about nothing to their relatives? If those in state services had adopted your mentality the number might well have been higher.
Just because winds were not severe in your back garden does not mean it was a non event all over the island.

Then you'd have the very same crew coming along afterwards asking "why didn't they warn us "

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 9:06pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

i take your point, but at a guess, I would propose that a greater part of the country was less affected by 'Ophelia' than was directly impacted by it to any significant degree. Of course, I am open to being corrected as I don't have the wind stats at hand at the mo.

Where i am in Laois it was a bad storm. Not Darwin or Christmas 1997. 5 miles away a roof blew off a piggery killing 1,000 animals. Financial ruin. Nationally Laois wouldn't have been noted like Cork, Kerry, parts of Tipp etc.

My point being the issuing of warnings is an extremely fraught one and Met Eireann shouldn't receive the criticism they do.

Oneiric 3 · 30-12-2017 9:09pm

Going to go a little political here, but the question must be asked, is it really in the job description of a State funded institution to 'nanny' us meres about how we should mind ourselves during impactful weather? I am in two minds about this myself, and can see both the positive and negative sides to such.

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 9:10pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Probably one of the least hilly regions in the entire country:

An orange warning for gusts of 125 km over the entire Connacht region is unrealistic in my opinion. Perhaps I will be proved wrong, In fact I sincerely hope I am.

East Galway was a bad example but hilly areas in mid Connacht etc. Very difficult to draw a line.

It's a bit like GAA, the old Elizabethan county system is what mostly defines regions. Inaccurate as it can be.

igCorcaigh · 30-12-2017 9:12pm

Ophelia produced the strongest winds I have ever experienced. It was genuinely scary. I had all my curtains pulled for fear of a slate coming through a window!

I assume some of the naysayers were not here in the South.

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 9:14pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Going to go a little political here, but the question must be asked, is it really in the job description of a State funded institution to 'nanny' us meres about how we should mind ourselves during impactful weather? I am in two minds about this myself, and can see both the positive and negative sides to such.

If it saves lives it's hard to argue against. However it's equally difficult to gauge whether the warnings save lives. I'd say in the case of Ophelia closed schools saved lives.

I know fellas who purposely went out with chainsaws to cut down fallen trees and make a killing selling firewood!!!

dmc17 · 30-12-2017 9:16pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Going to go a little political here, but the question must be asked, is it really in the job description of a State funded institution to 'nanny' us meres about how we should mind ourselves during impactful weather? I am in two minds about this myself, and can see both the positive and negative sides to such.

It's a forecast. At the end of the day, you can decide to take it or leave it. It shouldn't really offend people to the extent which it seems to.

Oneiric 3 · 30-12-2017 9:21pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I assume some of the naysayers were not here in the South.

And I have always assumed that the South is not the entire country. Where I live, shops remained closed, as did schools, work places etc, on the expectation of some devastating event. Needless to say, a lot of questions were asked the next morning when the 'storm' turned out to be nothing out of the Autumnal ordinary for these here parts.

Oneiric 3 · 30-12-2017 9:23pm

dmc17 wrote: »

It's a forecast. At the end of the day, you can decide to take it or leave it. It shouldn't really offend people to the extent which it seems to.

'Offended'? Hardly. Perhaps discourse should be abandoned entirely with questions not to be asked any more?

Donegal Storm · 30-12-2017 9:27pm

nagdefy wrote: »

It's a bit like GAA, the old Elizabethan county system is what mostly defines regions. Inaccurate as it can be.

This is one of the main issues, like most things in the country everything is rigidly based around county borders. For tonight, a warning for 'north western coastal areas' would make a lot more sense than a blanket warning for half the country when most will only have a moderately blustery night.

Weathercheck has mentioned a few times that the process is under review with an impact based system to be introduced, hopefully it'll be a more flexible as well where things are decided case by case rather than just when a base figure is expected to be reached at any one place.

I find all the whining on here extremely tiresome but when so many people are complaining I suppose it shows the system clearly does need to be improved.

George Sunsnow · 30-12-2017 9:29pm

Yawn
There’s a whole thread on Ophelia’s red warning and an overwhelming opinion shared by me given and respectively disagreed with by a few without an outbreak of it here derailing this one

Rebelbrowser · 30-12-2017 9:41pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

And I have always assumed that the South is not the entire country. .

That's where you have gone wrong Oneric!

coillsaille · 30-12-2017 9:59pm

I woud agree with others here that there isn't any problem or fault with the warning levels or thresholds but that there is with the geographical aspect of the warning system.
To continue using a county boundary system that is centuries old makes no sense.
An Atlantic low could bring 160 km/hr gusts to Clifden but only 80 km/hr to Ballinasloe. But both are in Co. Galway and would have to be covered by the same warning level.

mickmackey1 · 30-12-2017 10:22pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yawn
There’s a whole thread on Ophelia’s red warning and an overwhelming opinion shared by me given and respectively disagreed with by a few without an outbreak of it here derailing this one

I'll need to read that a few more times before getting to grips with its Joycean complexity :P

nagdefy · 30-12-2017 10:24pm

"A piggery roof doesn't have leaves on it so wind at any time of the year is likely to have removed it. The wind received in Laois that day is most likely less than that received several other times of the year, so it was probably the roof's time to go."

No Gaoth Laidir certain parts of Laois experienced very severe winds that day. Sorry a fire was started by an electrical fault in the storm. Sorry for my mis info. I was confusing it with a mini tornado in the area a few yrs back.

Abbeyleix area had many trees down. Severe weather was experienced in Ophelia as far north as Portlaoise. Some people want to create a narrative that Met Eireann's warning went way too far. They were blamed for not going far enough in Feb 2014.

Lissavane · 30-12-2017 10:33pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Probably one of the least hilly regions in the entire country:

An orange warning for gusts of 125 km over the entire Connacht region is unrealistic in my opinion. Perhaps I will be proved wrong, In fact I sincerely hope I am.

The concept of issuing warnings based on counties is entirely inappropriate for wind especially. A warning for all of Connaught as described above is meaningless and brings Met Eireann into disrepute when it doesn't happen.

Wind force within County Mayo varies enormously from Belmullet to Claremorris and within County Galway from Mace Head to Athenry.

The boy who cried wolf syndrome has set in already. Sometime there will be a serious weather event and Met Eireann will be ignored.

Are there too many weather warnings?

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