How many people have had pneumonia in the past 6 months that you know?

CrabRevolution · 26-05-2020 12:03am

tromtipp wrote: »

University Hospital Limerick was massively overcrowded in the first couple of months of this year because of a spike in respiratory infections (I know two people sent in with suspected pneumonia, both discharged without being admitted to wards). Despite that spike in numbers, the number of confirmed influenza cases was lower than average.

So what did all those people have?

If UHL being overcrowded means Covid-19 was rampant, then we've had Covid-19 for several years at this stage.

Guy:Incognito · 26-05-2020 12:07am

tromtipp wrote: »

So what did all those people have?

Unless the death figures were up an amount outside normal parameters for the winter, how can it have been Convid-19?

With everyone in and out of Nursing homes ( me included as I do maintenance in one , generally in there every 2 weeks or so) unrestricted, how was there not a massive increase in deaths?Or even a noteworthy increase?

CrabRevolution · 26-05-2020 12:14am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Unless the death figures were up an amount outside normal parameters for the winter, how can it have been Convid-19?

With everyone in and out of Nursing homes ( me included as I do maintenance in one , generally in there every 2 weeks or so) unrestricted, how was there not a massive increase in deaths?Or even a noteworthy increase?

There are more and more convoluted qualifiers being added to this "Early Covid-19" theory. It was apparently a widespread, yet not very infectious slow burner of a disease which made people sicker than they'd ever felt and filled hospitals with mystery respiratory illness, yet seems to have escaped the notice of health professionals and not caused any additional deaths above the normal.

Healio · 26-05-2020 12:26am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Unless the death figures were up an amount outside normal parameters for the winter, how can it have been Convid-19?

With everyone in and out of Nursing homes ( me included as I do maintenance in one , generally in there every 2 weeks or so) unrestricted, how was there not a massive increase in deaths?Or even a noteworthy increase?

Is your general point here that it wasnt covid because people didnt die?

Flickerfusion · 26-05-2020 12:47am

Well, I’ve an antibody test on its way to me, so I will post when I get results.

Guy:Incognito · 26-05-2020 12:49am

Healio wrote: »

Is your general point here that it wasnt covid because people didnt die?

If it was here, why , in your opinion did it not rampage through the nursing homes?

wakka12 · 26-05-2020 1:00am

Mike3287 wrote: »

That's your interpretation ;-)

The scientists are careful to quantify their conclusions in that paper, give me a bit of rope here

The researchers in that paper are suggesting that the immune response in the uninfected blood samples could be from previous coronavirus infections, t cell immune defence

Its a theory

As in they had a common cold infection previously

We know coronavirus common cold is very common

Its a theory that explains alot

Example the studies done on the diamond princess, were one partner got ill and the other didn't, even though they lived in tiny rooms for a month and didn't get infected.

Well was there an antibody test done on the passengers? The fact they apparently didn't fall ill doesn't really prove anything seeing as half of people who get it are asymptomatic

J Mysterio · 26-05-2020 1:12am

Flickerfusion wrote: »

Well, I’ve an antibody test on its way to me, so I will post when I get results.

How did you arrange this? I didn't know there was such a thing?!?

Healio · 26-05-2020 1:38am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

If it was here, why , in your opinion did it not rampage through the nursing homes?

Going by the theories in the thread so far; perhaps it slowly made its way through the healhier portion of the population, before it did indeed rampage through the nursing homes in Mar/Apr.

jimbobaloobob · 26-05-2020 1:42am

Healio wrote: »

Going by the theories in the thread so far; perhaps it slowly made its way through the healhier portion of the population, before it did indeed rampage through the nursing homes in Mar/Apr.

That wouldn’t explain why some nursing homes tested have had no cases of it would it? Surely if it was here it would be impossible for it not to reside in all dwellings?

Guy:Incognito · 26-05-2020 1:42am

But why would it stay in the healthier people and just ignore the old folks when it came in contact with them?

CrabRevolution · 26-05-2020 1:48am

Healio wrote: »

Going by the theories in the thread so far; perhaps it slowly made its way through the healhier portion of the population, before it did indeed rampage through the nursing homes in Mar/Apr.

That theory makes very little sense. There's just no way an apparently unrecognised and totally unchecked disease could just be completely absent from nursing homes for months, then suddenly infect over 200 nursing homes in the space of a few weeks in March and April after we became aware of it and were making efforts to stop it.

wakka12 · 26-05-2020 1:50am

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

But why would it stay in the healthier people and just ignore the old folks when it came in contact with them?

It wouldn't, because it wasn't here. Antibody tests prove that, and some people are sceptical of their accuracy but the fact that there was not only no increase in influenze/pneumonia in the population(and in Europe) this winter but actually a large decrease in the level in flu activity and excess mortality compared with the average year further reinforces that. Together they provide a pretty irrefutable argument that COVID was not circulating widespread in Europe before late February

The case in Paris ICU was likely simply an isolated case.

Healio · 26-05-2020 1:53am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

There's just no way an apparently unrecognised and totally unchecked disease could just be completely absent from nursing homes for months, then suddenly infect over 200 nursing homes in the space of a few weeks in March and April after we became aware of it and were making efforts to stop it.

That is quite a good summary of what actually happened, no?

wakka12 · 26-05-2020 1:56am

CrabRevolution wrote: »

That theory makes very little sense. There's just no way an apparently unrecognised and totally unchecked disease could just be completely absent from nursing homes for months, then suddenly infect over 200 nursing homes in the space of a few weeks in March and April after we became aware of it and were making efforts to stop it.

Even if that frankly bizarre theory happened to be true somehow, there is still the issue that even if it was circulating in the 'healthy young' population hospitals would still notice a massive increase in the number of young people presenting with severe flu symptoms compared to average winters.

While cases of severe covid are rare in young people, they are not vanishingly rare, it still happens semi regularly and there have been numerous young people hospitalised in Ireland at a rate that would not occur with any kind of normal flu outbreak, so again this trend would have still been noticeable even if it wasn't killing lots of people. Increased number of deaths is not the only hallmark of a pandemic. But considering how few people under 60 generally die from respiratory disease the few that covid would kill that normal flu wouldnt would also quickly be noticed in excess mortality rates within younger age groups too.

The theory that COVID is around for months holds absolutely no water really. It is wild speculation, with no evidence to support, and actually a lot of evidence that directly contradicts the theory

CrabRevolution · 26-05-2020 2:00am

Healio wrote: »

That is quite a good summary of what actually happened, no?

Well yes, but only in the sense that the disease wasn't here (in any significant numbers anyway) until late February.

The narrative some are pushing in this thread though is that Covid-19 has actually been freely circulating around the population since last November, but for some reason from November to February a magic forcefield prevented it from entering nursing homes and causing the characteristic devastation Covid-19 causes among the elderly.

Then inexplicably this forcefield dropped in March and 100s of residential care homes were hit pretty much simultaneously by this disease that had been here for months, causing a huge number of deaths.

_Whimsical_ · 26-05-2020 2:07am

When we are talking about prevalence of the disease in the community before the official start of the outbreak I think we need to remember that even since this whole fiasco started in mid March only 2% of patients referred for testing by a GP have tested positive.

That's 2% of people who presented at a Dr with a cough, fever or breathlessness that a GP flagged as suspicious.

So 98% of people had some sort of respiratory illness but did not have Covid since March.

There obviously has been loads of respiratory bugs out there so the likelihood would be that those ill before Christmas had one of those.

What Username Guidelines · 26-05-2020 1:36pm

There was something in New York in December, perhaps not covid, perhaps an earlier version undetectable by the tests? But flu-like-illness went way above 10 year average, while lab-confirmed flu cases were far lower.

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iamwhoiam · 26-05-2020 1:45pm

It not beyond the realms of speculation that December / Jan was a less aggressive first wave and March brought the second wave

I and three members of my family were very sick in December. We had fever , chills , aches , pains in joints and a dry cough which lasted weeks
I was on steroids and antibiotics as the doctor said she thought it was viral but afraid a pneumonia was developing
We all had lethargy for weeks after it

Iscreamkone · 26-05-2020 1:47pm

I had the worst "flu" of my life last December/January.
Just took tablets to keep the temp down and carried on, but was crook for a good 6 weeks.
Dryest xmas ever for me.
I wasn't right until the end of January - longest I've ever been ill in my life.
I'm fairly fit for early 50s (male, non smoker, BMI normal)

Looking back I think I may have had it, who knows?

nthclare · 26-05-2020 3:47pm

Guy in Kinvara I know,had the pneumonia from covid.
He was in that place in Italy, skiing.

He's okay now, only in his late 40's quite fit too.

ednwireland · 26-05-2020 3:51pm

do hospitals in ireland routinely test pneumonia patients for the flu strain ?
just wondering if that's a thing or just bang you on intravenous antibiotics.
I know gp's just give you antibiotics for pneumonia. no testing for flu strains.

US2 · 26-05-2020 4:50pm

It's amazing the country wasnt shur down in dec/jan seen as every single person in the country had "worst flu ever, couldn't move for 2 weeks" ect

Flickerfusion · 26-05-2020 4:51pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

How did you arrange this? I didn't know there was such a thing?!?

The Tropical Medical Bureau is doing them commercially. I’ll tell you more when I get the test as I don’t know enough about it yet. €70 if you take a finger blood sample or €80 to call in and have it done in the clinic.

It’s lab based testing, not a DIY kit so the sample is sent back to them in a sealed mailing kit.

Fian · 26-05-2020 4:59pm

I was off work with a cold/flu for a week in November. First time I have been off sick for more than a day short of being hospitalised. I thought i had pneumonia (which I have never had) because I was short of breath and struggling to breathe, but when I went to the Doctor they said it was a chest infection, and put me on antibiotics. Terrible cough but dry, not phlegmy. First time i have ever gone to a doctor with a cold/flu also, normally i just wait these things out, but this one was more severe than usual and I was concerned about my breathlessness.

In retrospect i wonder if it may have been Covid. If it was I would love to know, to know whether I have some level of immunity.

NSAman · 26-05-2020 5:16pm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

There was something in New York in December, perhaps not covid, perhaps an earlier version undetectable by the tests? But flu-like-illness went way above 10 year average, while lab-confirmed flu cases were far lower.

This also bears out the information my friend who is a nurse in one of our local hospitals told me in late January.

People being brought in with flu like symptoms but not testing positive for Flu types. I am NOT in New York.

Something was obviously going on in December/January.

Again this is speculation.. but looking back the symptoms for myself and my family were the same as Covid... but again... we will not know.

(PS lungs still are not as good as they were Pre-January "flu")

Lolle06 · 26-05-2020 5:30pm

Same in our family!
We all caught an odd flu that started end of Nov. The symptoms were like Covid-19 symptoms- even with the loss of taste.
My sis had it first and ended up with mild pneumonia.
The classes at our local primary- and pre school were decimated in numbers before Christmas.
I remember talking to the pharmacist about it.
We had to call out the ambulance once and decided to stay at home b/c apparently the A&E at hospital was „like a zoo“.
FIL passed away early Jan and had pneumonia. His nursing home was locked down for visitors to keep viral spread down.
So, looking back it’s all a bit odd.

LLMMLL · 26-05-2020 6:52pm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

There was something in New York in December, perhaps not covid, perhaps an earlier version undetectable by the tests? But flu-like-illness went way above 10 year average, while lab-confirmed flu cases were far lower.

I went to the CDC site those charts came from and generated the same chart for NY State 2014/15.

As you can see there is also a Spike in late December early January followed by a more sustained spIke a few weeks later.

It doesn't happen every year but that pattern is quite common in a few of the years I checked.

So unless we had covid in 2014.....

wakka12 · 26-05-2020 6:54pm

A lot of people in New York have antibodies(20% in the city) so it is at least plausible in that case that there may have been an earlier first wave. But then again with nearly 30,000 deaths in 12 weeks there it is again more likely they simply had a huge number of cases in that time and that number of people were infected all at once

J Mysterio · 26-05-2020 6:55pm

Flickerfusion wrote: »

The Tropical Medical Bureau is doing them commercially. I’ll tell you more when I get the test as I don’t know enough about it yet. €70 if you take a finger blood sample or €80 to call in and have it done in the clinic.

It’s lab based testing, not a DIY kit so the sample is sent back to them in a sealed mailing kit.

Very interesting, thanks.

I didn't realise there was a viable antibody test.

How many people have had pneumonia in the past 6 months that you know?

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