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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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Comments

  • #62
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    metricspaces wrote: »
    Age is not the sole criteria in Ireland for getting into ICU. Ireland has not taken this approach, yet.
    Pseudonym121 said as much on another thread the other day.

    It's not about age, it's about quality of life if a recovery is possible. People in nursing homes typically wouldn't make a good recovery. So there's no push to send them and "take up" resources :(

    Verified by Colm Henry when pressed for an answer about it at the news conference yesterday.


  • #63
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Where did i say they had the same population??
    If your going to debate with me at least challenge me on what I say, not what you make up...

    Oh. So we're comparing apples and oranges then? Hopefully it's clear now.


  • #64
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,000 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Where did i say they had the same population??
    If your going to debate with me at least challenge me on what I say, not what you make up...

    My point is Competely valid...
    Sweden has 20% more confirmed cases than Ireland, yet has more than 200% more cases.

    They obviously and evidently have not taken a better approach than we have.

    Also, for our smaller population, we are also testing over 100% more per capita than they are..


    Are they still taking the right approach???

    Cmon you cant ignore the population size.


  • #65
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Cmon you cant ignore the population size.

    Ah go on out of that Ted. This small toy cow in my hand is the same size as that real cow in yonder field.


  • #66
    coastwatch
    Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭coastwatch


    Norway is a better example for us, similar population size, similar restrictions, but twice as much testing.
    Norway,
    6360 cases
    116 new cases reported today (1.9%)
    114 Deaths


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  • #67
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Question for people though, the fact that Sweden hasnt locked down shouldnt they have thousands dead by now. Any model we have seen shows massive eath rates if nothing is done why hasnt this materialized in sweden.

    Perhaps more people already have it than previously though, so the death rate might be of a lot lower. I also thought we would see explosion in deaths in the last few days at least.


  • #68
    delaad
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭delaad


    frillyleaf wrote: »
    Does Sweden have the right approach to this and how is their healthcare system being able to manage Covid19 cases?

    What are the differences between Sweden and Ireland and why can’t we continue similar to how Sweden is managing Covid19?

    I’m not suggesting either is right or wrong. I would just like to know how Sweden can continue as normal and other countries can’t. Thanks ��

    Lockdown is Sweden's natural social condition.


  • #69
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Where did i say they had the same population??
    If your going to debate with me at least challenge me on what I say, not what you make up...

    My point is Competely valid...
    Sweden has 20% more confirmed cases than Ireland, yet has more than 200% more cases.

    They obviously and evidently have not taken a better approach than we have.

    Also, for our smaller population, we are also testing over 100% more per capita than they are..


    Are they still taking the right approach???

    what :confused:


  • #70
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    metricspaces wrote: »
    Age is not the sole criteria in Ireland for getting into ICU. Ireland has not taken this approach, yet.

    Not officially.

    There is a HSE consultant doing an AMA here on boards.

    One of his posts lately he hinted to but was careful to not all out confirm patients of a certain vintage plus condition had their care home owners told to make them comfortable as they wouldnt have more than 20% chance of surviving ICU

    He said if we had been sending them in we would have overun ICUs weeks back


  • #71
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    suicide_circus wrote: »
    Sweden has a history of massaging figures for media consumption

    Yes the Swedish people are nice.

    However it's media and political parties of certain leaning have thought nothing of fiddling figures and sweeping certain stats and reports under the carpet that came at odds with their agendas

    So I wouldn't trust their government one iota


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  • #72
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Question for people though, the fact that Sweden hasnt locked down shouldnt they have thousands dead by now. Any model we have seen shows massive eath rates if nothing is done why hasnt this materialized in sweden.

    When Swine flu came out experts, media and everyone in the the know said a minimum of 25 million were going to die worldwide is came to 150 to maybe 550k

    Hong Kong flu in 1969/70 killed 100k US citizens and 80k British too, just an interesting one if lads would like to look up


  • #73
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    the Germans immunity tested 80% of a town with about 11,000 population

    they were therefore able to get a very accurate picture (obv demographics comes into it) of the infection fatality rate

    https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

    One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

    Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

    For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

    The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.


  • #74
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    Interesting glasso

    Italian health officials believe they have 10 times their official infected figure

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...epubblica-says

    Spain is talking a possibility of 15 in 16 cases infected undetected

    German scientists believe the world total confirmed infected only accounts for 1.6% of infections

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ronavirus.htm

    Study of Wuhan believe 86% infections go unreported

    https://www.mailman.columbia.edu/pub...virus-outbreak

    Iceland is the biggest outlier but also the country which by far has the highest test per head of population (close to 5%)

    1,300+ cases and only 6 deaths.

    A death rate of 0.37%


  • #75
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    the Italians and the Spanish don't really have a clue as to their real infection rate.

    the case numbers for most countries are barely worth reading.


  • #76
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    People generally reckoned 0.5% fatality if things do not get out of control, the German figure of 0.37% is broadly comparable with this, especially as you will receive good treatment in Germany if you do get it.
    However, you get people claiming it is only 0.1% or less to make some point or other.
    in ROI even 0.37% would be 10,000+ dead in a year or so, compare that to 150 dying on the roads each year nowadays.

    Social distancing and aggressive testing is needed to keep this under control until we get a vaccine.


  • #77
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Jurgen Klopp wrote: »
    Interesting glasso

    Italian health officials believe they have 10 times their official infected figure

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...epubblica-says


    They also have 3 times the deaths of the official figure.


  • #78
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    Actually I just realized that German study is coming into line with Iceland's, wow

    It might actually be less deadly than the Hong Kong Flu


  • #79
    Lyan
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭Lyan


    Sweden and Norway are rational in their approach. Our approach appears motivated by emotion. People are pointing out a slightly higher death rate in Sweden while ignoring that death rates are much lower than ours in Norway. People are also ignoring that by most projections Sweden and Norway should be seeing hundreds of thousands of cases coming in about now. Instead they are experiencing the massively flattened curve that we are seeing here in Ireland.

    The Nords may have dodged catastrophe while avoiding the "cure" of hamstringing their economies. Any moderate increase in deaths that are seen now will be redeemed by preventing massive suffering in the future. People can call in inhuman to allow more deaths in the short term, but I believe those people cannot see very far into the future. I see time proving the Swedes and Norwegians correct but I know people will continue to irrationally believe our lockdown approach was the better option.

    Intelligence and common sense precaution beats enforced lockdowns. We don't need the government to "help" with this.


  • #80
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    They also have 3 times the deaths of the official figure.

    Well a nation of 60m at even 0.4% is 240k not to mention nearly 1 in 4 are over 65 so the misfortunes are gonna be hit hard unfortunately


  • #81
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    glasso wrote: »
    the Germans immunity tested 80% of a town with about 11,000 population

    Even a drop from 1% to 0.4% can save 60% of those that were projected to die and a massive drop of what is expected to fill the ICUs.

    Most projections I've seen as late are positive like this study, has anyone seen any negative ones? I'm sure they exist if the governments are still acting like they are.


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  • #82
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Charles Babbage wrote: »

    Social distancing and aggressive testing is needed to keep this under control until we get a vaccine.

    they will have to relax restrictions for the not-at-high-risk (under 65 and no serious pre-existing conditions) after May though or the long-term damage to Ireland's already indebted economy will be ruinous.

    the infection fatality rate is a lot lower than previously assumed.

    this follows on to hospital admissions and ICU treatment rates.


  • #83
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    Jurgen Klopp wrote: »
    Not officially.

    Hence not true. But sure if we want to run with some conspiracy theory based on no facts...
    Jurgen Klopp wrote: »
    they wouldnt have more than 20% chance of surviving ICU

    Right. So not based on their age and no different to a case where something else other than covid-19 caused them to deteriorate. Same clinical decision would be made.

    Do you think in non covid-19 times that all the ladys and gentlemen in nursing homes are rushed off to ICU when they're on deaths door?


  • #84
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    Lyan wrote: »
    Sweden and Norway are rational in their approach. Our approach appears motivated by emotion. People are pointing out a slightly higher death rate in Sweden while ignoring that death rates are much lower than ours in Norway. People are also ignoring that by most projections Sweden and Norway should be seeing hundreds of thousands of cases coming in about now. Instead they are experiencing the massively flattened curve that we are seeing here in Ireland.

    The Nords may have dodged catastrophe while avoiding the "cure" of hamstringing their economies. Any moderate increase in deaths that are seen now will be redeemed by preventing massive suffering in the future. People can call in inhuman to allow more deaths in the short term, but I believe those people cannot see very far into the future. I see time proving the Swedes and Norwegians correct but I know people will continue to irrationally believe our lockdown approach was the better option.

    Intelligence and common sense precaution beats enforced lockdowns. We don't need the government to "help" with this.

    I hope you're right. Interestingly the UK and the US were also taking this approach and then suddenly u-turned and flipped their strategy when the numbers started coming in.


  • #85
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,005 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Lyan wrote: »
    Sweden and Norway are rational in their approach. Our approach appears motivated by emotion. People are pointing out a slightly higher death rate in Sweden while ignoring that death rates are much lower than ours in Norway. People are also ignoring that by most projections Sweden and Norway should be seeing hundreds of thousands of cases coming in about now. Instead they are experiencing the massively flattened curve that we are seeing here in Ireland.

    The Nords may have dodged catastrophe while avoiding the "cure" of hamstringing their economies. Any moderate increase in deaths that are seen now will be redeemed by preventing massive suffering in the future. People can call in inhuman to allow more deaths in the short term, but I believe those people cannot see very far into the future. I see time proving the Swedes and Norwegians correct but I know people will continue to irrationally believe our lockdown approach was the better option.

    Intelligence and common sense precaution beats enforced lockdowns. We don't need the government to "help" with this.

    Has Norway not imposed a strict lockdown?:confused:


  • #86
    Outlaw Pete
    Registered Users Posts: 10,423 ✭✭✭✭Outlaw Pete


    KiKi III wrote: »
    They have twice our population but almost four times as many deaths as us so far.

    No, sure four times our number (288) would be 1152.

    Their number as of today is 887.

    Not suggesting they may not end up being four times more, or even worse.


  • #87
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Seems a crazy risk for them to take.

    Ok they have a pretty high government spend but their national debt is around 39% of GDP. That gives them a lot of flexibility in terms of borrowing for a few months of a lockdown.


  • #88
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,431 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Outlaw Pete wrote: »
    No, sure four times our number (288) would be 1152.

    Their number as of today is 887.

    Not suggesting they may not end up being four times more, or even worse.

    They have 88 deaths per million compared to our 58.


  • #89
    joeysoap
    Registered Users Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Has Norway not imposed a strict lockdown?:confused:

    I thought they had too.


  • #90
    Ulysses Gaze
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,570 ✭✭✭Ulysses Gaze


    Lyan wrote: »
    Sweden and Norway are rational in their approach. Our approach appears motivated by emotion. People are pointing out a slightly higher death rate in Sweden while ignoring that death rates are much lower than ours in Norway. People are also ignoring that by most projections Sweden and Norway should be seeing hundreds of thousands of cases coming in about now. Instead they are experiencing the massively flattened curve that we are seeing here in Ireland.

    The Nords may have dodged catastrophe while avoiding the "cure" of hamstringing their economies. Any moderate increase in deaths that are seen now will be redeemed by preventing massive suffering in the future. People can call in inhuman to allow more deaths in the short term, but I believe those people cannot see very far into the future. I see time proving the Swedes and Norwegians correct but I know people will continue to irrationally believe our lockdown approach was the better option.

    Intelligence and common sense precaution beats enforced lockdowns. We don't need the government to "help" with this.

    Perhaps if we implemented the below type of system here, it may work. But even then, 2,000 health professionals and researchers have signed a petition demanding tougher action by the Swedish Government to deal with the virus.

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-why-sweden-has-refused-to-go-into-lockdown-mode-during-covid-19-battle-c-970104
    In some ways, however, Sweden is better prepared to weather the storm than other countries.

    Forty per cent of the country’s workforce worked from home regularly, even before the virus struck.

    Sweden also has a high ratio of people living on their own, whereas in southern Europe it’s not uncommon to have three generations under one roof.

    Emma Grossmith, a British employment lawyer working in Stockholm, says another factor in Sweden’s favour is a generous social welfare net that means people don’t feel obligated to turn up for work if their young child is sick.

    State support kicks in on day one of absence from work due to a child being sick.

    “The system here was already well set up to help people to make smarter choices which ultimately benefit the wider population,” she said.

    But Grossmith notes a big gap between the way Swedes and expatriates view the virus.

    “There is a native trust in the system amongst those who have grown up with it,” she said.

    “ In contrast, many of the expat community feel that the strategy has neither been communicated clearly nor robustly challenged in the Swedish press.

    “They are deeply worried.”

    The next month will determine whether the Swedish system got it right.


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  • #91
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,000 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Ulysses Gaze wrote: »
    Perhaps if we implemented the below type of system here, it may work. But even then, 2,000 health professionals and researchers have signed a petition demanding tougher action by the Swedish Government to deal with the virus.

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-why-sweden-has-refused-to-go-into-lockdown-mode-during-covid-19-battle-c-970104

    All that said, they should really have a higher death rate than they are saying. Every model has predicted a death rate multiple times higher.


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