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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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    #62
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/coronavirus-strains-transmissible/611239/

    Good article about how the newspaper headlines of Covid "mutating" is overstating what is actually happening, and the difference between a "mutation" and a "strain".
    But influenza is notable for mutating quickly. Coronaviruses—which, to be clear, belong to a completely separate family from influenza viruses—change at a tenth of the speed. The new one, SARS-CoV-2, is no exception. “There’s nothing out of the ordinary here,” says Grubaugh. Yes, the virus has picked up several mutations since it first jumped into humans in late 2019, but no more than scientists would have predicted. Yes, its family tree has branched into different lineages, but none seems materially different from the others. “This is still such a young epidemic that, given the slow mutation rate, it would be a surprise if we saw anything this soon,” Houldcroft says.


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    #63
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Moderna have got FDA approval to move to Phase 2 trials

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnAe8g7hzqc


    Hoping to start phase 3 in early Summer.


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    #64
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Good overview of where we are at. https://www.wired.com/story/frontrunners-emerge-in-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine/

    Challenge trials are increasingly likely it seems to accelerate testing, where healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to the virus after receiving a vaccine. This has really profound ethical implications where you have a virus with no cure.


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    #65
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    hmmm wrote: »
    Good overview of where we are at. https://www.wired.com/story/frontrunners-emerge-in-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine/

    Challenge trials are increasingly likely it seems to accelerate testing, where healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to the virus after receiving a vaccine. This has really profound ethical implications where you have a virus with no cure.

    The scary part in this is that the challenge trials will need a placebo control group.


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    #66
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    Hmmzis wrote: »
    The scary part in this is that the challenge trials will need a placebo control group.

    Mad

    How do they do this with lethal viruses like Ebola, Marburg?

    Gather up vulnerable in society like homeless, drug users etc and pay them well


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    #67
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    Mike3287 wrote: »
    Mad

    How do they do this with lethal viruses like Ebola, Marburg?

    Gather up vulnerable in society like homeless, drug users etc and pay them well

    With those it's very much possible to go without a control group as the differences in outcomes should be rather obvious if the vaccine works or not.

    For SARS-cov-2 it's a bit trickier as with young and healthy volunteers the general outcomes would be hard to quantify without a control group.


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    #68
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Was thinking about this a bit more today and with a safe vaccine a long way away most likely, is waiting for a vaccine a viable or realistic option? I don’t mean let’s all go for herd immunity, but it seems like dodging this thing for 2 years would be difficult without locking yourself down.

    I know this is a novel virus so I’m not sure how you can compare it to previous pandemics. But even with out of control ones such as the Spanish flu, it came in waves and eventually the waves receded. Why, I’m not sure, maybe it was herd immunity of the affected regions, and with less of a connected world than today it “only” managed to penetrate 20% of the population.

    We’re in this 2 months and 1% of Dublin is infected (confirmed) so probably many multiples more, maybe as high as 10-15% which will put a dent, albeit small, in the spread, of immunity is a thing. With this, the hospitals have not been overwhelmed and with increased awareness of hand washing and social distancing, working from home for those who can, do we really think this will keep spreading for two years while we wait for a vaccine? Could it be possible that as we relax the restrictions and we, potentially, don’t see a massive spike, people relax even more and it moves into the background to maybe resurge at a later time? Most waves in previous pandemics seem to last 4-6 months max and then a lull before the next.

    Maybe we just can’t rely on what might or might not happen based on previous pandemics.


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    #69
    bennyineire
    Registered Users Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭bennyineire


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Was thinking about this a bit more today and with a safe vaccine a long way away most likely, is waiting for a vaccine a viable or realistic option? I don’t mean let’s all go for herd immunity, but it seems like dodging this thing for 2 years would be difficult without locking yourself down.

    I know this is a novel virus so I’m not sure how you can compare it to previous pandemics. But even with out of control ones such as the Spanish flu, it came in waves and eventually the waves receded. Why, I’m not sure, maybe it was herd immunity of the affected regions, and with less of a connected world than today it “only” managed to penetrate 20% of the population.

    We’re in this 2 months and 1% of Dublin is infected (confirmed) so probably many multiples more, maybe as high as 10-15% which will put a dent, albeit small, in the spread, of immunity is a thing. With this, the hospitals have not been overwhelmed and with increased awareness of hand washing and social distancing, working from home for those who can, do we really think this will keep spreading for two years while we wait for a vaccine? Could it be possible that as we relax the restrictions and we, potentially, don’t see a massive spike, people relax even more and it moves into the background to maybe resurge at a later time? Most waves in previous pandemics seem to last 4-6 months max and then a lull before the next.

    Maybe we just can’t rely on what might or might not happen based on previous pandemics.

    Wrong thread fella


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    #70
    flazio
    Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    I see a lot of workplaces are saying they will introduce temperature checks on their employees to establish that they do not have a fever and (alongside no coughing) are therefore clear of Covid 19. I'd be wary about trusting this if I'm honest. I can think of at least 2 high profile contractors, Claire Byrne and Ryan Tubridy who didn't develop a fever.
    Anyone else feeling wary about this?


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    #71
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    Antiviral and interferon treatment combination, needs to be given early:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31042-4/fulltext

    Maybe an option in nursing homes where IV medication can be administered.

    The interferon apears to be a link to some genetically linked susceptibilty. Some people have downregulated interferon genes, potentially causing severe disease that way. Innate immune response is therefore delayed for those people, the adaptive immune response then has a harder time to deal with the infection. The older the person, the more likely it is to have a dysregulated innate immune response.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nri3547

    This bug is starting to slowly make sense in they way it affects people.


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    #72
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    https://www.biocentury.com/article/305171

    "Just focusing on the spike protein or even more reductionist, the receptor binding part of the spike protein, may not be enough to confer long-term protection. Data from the previous SARS outbreak suggests that immune responses to more than one antigen are required for the induction of long-term immunity.

    There is also a relevant debate about what kind of protective immunity a patient attains if infected with the virus, and how viral load correlates with severity of disease, reflecting just how little is known about the pathology of this new virus.

    All the effort is necessary, and to be appreciated and applauded, but at the same time it is important to be realistic about the prospects: the reality is that by necessity, the vaccines are being rushed into trials without a solid grasp on the immune responses that they elicit."

    I sense a bit of wariness from scientists about over-promising on vaccines, but even though these are incredibly clever people I think they are missing the point. Even if a vaccine is produced rapidly which only gives short-term immunity, it will be enough to allow people get back to relative normality. Short-term immunity buys time for some of the other vaccines which may give a longer-term immunity.


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    #73
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Pro Luke O'Neill paper as published in Nature outlining background to BCG research as potential antivirus solution.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0337-y

    Wall Street Journal article on trials around the world

    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/old-vaccine-gets-new-look-in-tests-for-coronavirus-protection-11589362202


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    #74
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Pro Luke O'Neill paper as published in Nature outlining background to BCG research as potential antivirus solution.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0337-y

    Wall Street Journal article on trials around the world

    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/old-vaccine-gets-new-look-in-tests-for-coronavirus-protection-11589362202
    WSJ article can only be read with a subscription.


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    #75
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    Regarding pathology, this one in The Cell is a good read and explains a lot of things:

    https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/products/coronavirus/CELL_CELL-D-20-00985.pdf

    The main treatment options from that would be interferon (beta) and a strong anti-inflammatory drug (they mentioned tocilizumab and anakinra) the moment a patient end up in a hospital.

    This is a clinical trial showing the effects in patients:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31042-4/fulltext

    While not quite back to normality with that approach, it should help reduce the severity and mortality if administered in a timely fashion and widely available testing.

    Then the next question is how do we do prophylaxis for the general public to induce a more robust interferon response in cells to get the innate immune response going sooner?


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    #76
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    Also, this looks to be good news for recovered patients:

    https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-27359/v1


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    #77
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    is_that_so wrote: »
    WSJ article can only be read with a subscription.

    Ah you must have looked at a WSJ article before, you get a few goes spread far apart before the shutter comes down!


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    #78
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    100% accuracy in antibody test
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public/

    "The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health is in negotiations with the Swiss healthcare company Roche to buy millions of the kits."

    UK Department of Health FYI.


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    #79
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Wow - "The goal of Trump's "Operation Warp Speed" -- which may prove impossible to meet -- is to make 100 million doses of the vaccine available by November, 200 million doses by December and 300 million doses by January, a senior administration official has told CNN."

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/white-house-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

    I heard Gottlieb being interviewed earlier in the day, and he said the US consumes about 150 million doses of influenza vaccine every year.


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    #80
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Disappointing news

    https://twitter.com/FakeShowbizNews/status/1260156926136143872


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    #81
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Good news in testing for the Oxford vaccine
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1

    A single vaccine prevents Covid in Rhesus Macaques

    Also in the summary "Importantly, no evidence of immune-enhanced disease following viral challenge in vaccinated animals was observed."


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    #82
    Ipso
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Ipso


    hmmm wrote: »
    Disappointing news

    https://twitter.com/FakeShowbizNews/status/1260156926136143872

    RIP Human race.


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    #83
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hmmm wrote: »
    100% accuracy in antibody test
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public/

    "The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health is in negotiations with the Swiss healthcare company Roche to buy millions of the kits."

    UK Department of Health FYI.
    There were some very vague reference to some news on that front soon, in our briefing on Tuesday. Validation tests and whatnot it sounded like. DeGascun has also spoken of community testing being done by the end of June.


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    #84
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

    Good news (I think).


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    #85
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

    Another paper where the researchers have seen existing CD4+ T cells reacting to SARS-cov-2 in rather large proportions. Could this be the explanation for the asymptomatic cases and/or the curiously low household secondary attack rate of this?

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010v1
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7104686/

    Is this the first paper stating that they've found SARS-cov-2 specific CD8+ T cells? If I recall right those are the ones that can stick around for very long times (decades).


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    #86
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-on-the-chadox1-ncov-19-vaccine-and-sars-cov-2-pneumonia-in-rhesus-macaques/
    Prof Stephen Evans, Professor of Pharmacoepidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

    Is this good news?

    “Very definitely. It is one of the hurdles to be passed by the Oxford vaccine and it has cleared it well. The most important finding to me is the combination of considerable efficacy in terms of viral load and subsequent pneumonia, but no evidence of immune-enhanced disease. The latter has been a concern for vaccines in general, for example with vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and for SARS vaccines. This was a definite theoretical concern for a vaccine against SARS Cov-2 and finding no evidence for it in this study is very encouraging.


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    #87
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Another vaccine candidate successful in initial animal trials
    https://media.medicago.com/webfolder_download/18976bca98bb32b23734fc6f7a85bd9d/2020-05-14-animal-trials-en/4c633d404c108007544f0c2785cae8b1745273c9/2020-05-14-animal-trials-en.pdf


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    #88
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    hmmm wrote: »
    Another vaccine candidate successful in initial animal trials
    https://media.medicago.com/webfolder_download/18976bca98bb32b23734fc6f7a85bd9d/2020-05-14-animal-trials-en/4c633d404c108007544f0c2785cae8b1745273c9/2020-05-14-animal-trials-en.pdf

    I think this is the 3rd one to pass the animal challenge stage without any signs of AED. Some of the SARS candidates failed at this stage.
    Could be a reason to have some cautious optimism about vaccine viability for this after all.


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    #89
    Road-Hog
    Registered Users Posts: 1,412 ✭✭✭Road-Hog


    Hmmzis wrote: »
    I think this is the 3rd one to pass the animal challenge stage without any signs of AED. Some of the SARS candidates failed at this stage.
    Could be a reason to have some cautious optimism about vaccine viability for this after all.

    Can you explain AED.....and why the positivity ...?


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    #90
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    Road-Hog wrote: »
    Can you explain AED.....and why the positivity ...?

    AED - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

    It's a concern for a lot of vaccines, including coronavirus ones. In essence, one would be better off getting the real thing unvaccinated.

    The key is to express the highly conserved proteins of the virus from the vaccine to prevent that, while at the same time instructing the immune system to make the antibodies with high neutralization ability.


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    #91
    JTMan
    Registered Users Posts: 5,535 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Coronavirus vaccine for 30 million in the UK by September if trial succeeds

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-for-30-million-by-september-if-trial-succeeds-says-sharma-11990039
    He said the pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca had finalised a "global licensing agreement" with Oxford University with government support, and added: "This means that if the vaccine is successful AstraZeneca will work to make 30 million doses available by September for the UK as part of an agreement for over 100 million doses in total."


This discussion has been closed.
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