Winter 2011/2012

ff9999 · 29-10-2011 6:36pm

damino wrote: »

I can't recall the name of some climatologist but he claimed that it only took 7 years for Ireland's and Western Europe's climate to go from temperate to tundra, a kind of sudden climate change as that occurred in times past. He studied sediments in some ancient lakes around Ireland. Could we be in the process of some cold winters in the years ahead? Who knows but it beats the mild, dreary and damp ones.

Yes Pleeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaasssssssseeeeeeeee

If we don't get warm summers we should be at least consoled by nice freezing (SNOWY) winters. None of that mild, rainy Sh*te

JJJJNR · 29-10-2011 9:42pm

I'm a fan of snow but there has been a step change in winter weather in Ireland and the UK, I think there needs to be a change in attitude by the majority of people, people need to be responsible, stop taking days off due to the snow, get winter tires and adapt, that goes for local authorities also, I bet there is still no "plan" in place and complacency again will be the norm this winter.

caseyann · 29-10-2011 11:09pm

I heard someone say they are advising people to buy Barbecues for cooking in case we run out of heating and electricity.
Now thats scary.If it comes make sure you check on your elderly neighbour's especially the ones who live in hills alone and have no family.

Not looking forward to another year of cold like last years.:(

johngalway · 30-10-2011 11:59am

JJJJNR wrote: »

I'm a fan of snow but there has been a step change in winter weather in Ireland and the UK, I think there needs to be a change in attitude by the majority of people, people need to be responsible, stop taking days off due to the snow, get winter tires and adapt, that goes for local authorities also, I bet there is still no "plan" in place and complacency again will be the norm this winter.

Agree completely. I have an old quite ordinary saloon car and drove around to the places I wanted to get to in the snow and compacted ice from day one. A lot of other people were moaning about how they couldn't get anywhere, BS. It was also quite funny to see the headless chickens run around, all the jobs they ever needed to do in their lives were ruined because they couldn't do them at that time :rolleyes: The only way to get experience in those conditions is to get out the house!

dsmythy · 30-10-2011 1:25pm

Don't see much of a cold blast through to mid November. Good times. Atlantic doesn't seem particularly mobile in FI though. Bad times.

Blizzard 2010 · 30-10-2011 9:23pm

Still early days for a cold snap. Second Half of November is the time to watch for.:)

Lucreto · 30-10-2011 10:11pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Still early days for a cold snap. Second Half of November is the time to watch for.:)

I hope so but it seems more and more people are going for a milder winter. I must have been spoiled after last year but nothing other than that will do.:D

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0

If this happens winter will be horrible. I need by cold frosty weather to cheer me up.

I know Joe Bastardi forecast it out today so it will be interesting on what he says.

derekon · 30-10-2011 10:29pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I hope so but it seems more and more people are going for a milder winter. I must have been spoiled after last year but nothing other than that will do.:D

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0

If this happens winter will be horrible. I need by cold frosty weather to cheer me up.

I know Joe Bastardi forecast it out today so it will be interesting on what he says.

Not much snow will fall on the islands in January and February, even in the mountains.

That sounds like a snow lovers f**king nightmare :mad:

Lucreto · 30-10-2011 10:55pm

derekon wrote: »

Not much snow will fall on the islands in January and February, even in the mountains.

That sounds like a snow lovers f**king nightmare :mad:

They got it completely wrong last year so I hope they are wrong again and the past summer was wrong as well.

I have been calling them inaccuweather

derekon · 30-10-2011 11:03pm

Lucreto wrote: »

They got it completely wrong last year so I hope they are wrong again and the past summer was wrong as well.

I have been calling them inaccuweather

Well lets hope so.

On a separate note, just checked the temperature for Dublin city on www.weather.co.uk and it has reliably informed me that its +17oC in the city.

What the f**k is up with the weather ? We would be lucky to get +17oC on a July night in Dublin and now we are about to begin November with such a high tempeature.....this cannot be right , something must be up with Ireland's weather?

Su Campu · 30-10-2011 11:20pm

A lot of warm air will be pumped northwards from the mid Atlantic over the next couple of weeks, which will serve to build high pressure over northern latitudes, something along the lines of October-November 2009. A positive sign if you're looking for a cold easterly towards the end of the month. Will it play out like that? $64M ?.

Lucreto · 30-10-2011 11:22pm

derekon wrote: »

Well lets hope so.

On a separate note, just checked the temperature for Dublin city on www.weather.co.uk and it has reliably informed me that its +17oC in the city.

What the f**k is up with the weather ? We would be lucky to get +17oC on a July night in Dublin and now we are about to begin November with such a high tempeature.....this cannot be right , something must be up with Ireland's weather?

Its a good question for MTC. It seemed to have started with Irene and the atlantic dominated since.

I hope it breaks soon I am sick of south winds.

caseyann · 30-10-2011 11:25pm

Lucreto wrote: »

They got it completely wrong last year so I hope they are wrong again and the past summer was wrong as well.

I have been calling them inaccuweather

They may be able to swing the vote in elections on tv but they cant tell the weather what to do.:D

darkman2 · 30-10-2011 11:27pm

Long range forecasts are anathema to me. I don't see them as being in any way remotely accurate even though they can be almost accurate just by luck or coincidence. Others do and fair enough but personally I don't take them too seriously.

But I do take more seriously what the trends say about possibilities for up to a month in advance which I think is far more realistic. The current trends synoptically are very good in fact for those that want snow and ice later in November. They are very similar to this time last year. After next week we should see the establishment of high pressure over Scandinavia and hopefully that will extend across the latitudes immediately north of us. There are already signs of very cold air approaching the Northeast of the continent shortly. Very cold air. There are also early signs of the amplification of the jet stream taking track further south which is again needed and again is similar to last year at this stage.

Just a proviso here though that just because the main force of the jet stream takes a southerly track into North Africa does not automatically give us the blocking pressure to the North because of the tendency for the stream to split into a Northern and Southern arm. We need to see the Northern arm very weak to establish a blocking high pressure to our north giving us our Northeast or East winds. This is what happened late November last year.

This is what we want to see at this stage. A nice cold feed from the Artic and Siberia into Eastern Europe and high pressure over Scandinavia.

Just to illustrate the point on the Jet Stream a bit further. It's a good trend at this stage. We just need to weaken the Northern arm. We should not feel too bad about the Southern arm continuing to attack North Africa like a big vindictive finger.

That on it's own does not mean it will be cold here but it is a prerequisite to a bitter winter in this country to have that cold pool to tap into when pressure builds to our north. I'm very confident for the second half of November. Could be completely wrong but I like what I see on the charts right now.

Su Campu · 30-10-2011 11:29pm

derekon wrote: »

Well lets hope so.

On a separate note, just checked the temperature for Dublin city on www.weather.co.uk and it has reliably informed me that its +17oC in the city.

What the f**k is up with the weather ? We would be lucky to get +17oC on a July night in Dublin and now we are about to begin November with such a high tempeature.....this cannot be right , something must be up with Ireland's weather?

That's what +10 °C temps at 850 hPa in stiff southerly will do on a Sunday night!

Su Campu · 30-10-2011 11:34pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Long range forecasts are anathema to me. I don't see them as being in any way remotely accurate even though they can be almost accurate just by luck or coincidence. Others do and fair enough but personally I don't take them too seriously.

But I do take more seriously what the trends say about possibilities for up to a month in advance which I think is far more realistic. The current trends synoptically are very good in fact for those that want snow and ice later in November. They are very similar to this time last year. After next week we should see the establishment of high pressure over Scandinavia and hopefully that will extend across the latitudes immediately north of us. There are already signs of very cold air approaching the Northeast of the continent shortly. Very cold air. There are also early signs of the amplification of the jet stream taking track further south which is again needed and again is similar to last year at this stage.

This is what we want to see at this stage. A nice cold feed from the Artic and Siberia into Eastern Europe and high pressure over Scandinavia.

That on it's own does not mean it will be cold here but it is a prerequisite to a bitter winter in this country to have that cold pool to tap into when pressure builds to our north. I'm very confident for the second half of November. Could be completely wrong but I like what I see on the charts right now.

Snap

bb1234567 · 31-10-2011 12:00am

darkman2 wrote: »

Long range forecasts are anathema to me. I don't see them as being in any way remotely accurate even though they can be almost accurate just by luck or coincidence. Others do and fair enough but personally I don't take them too seriously.

But I do take more seriously what the trends say about possibilities for up to a month in advance which I think is far more realistic. The current trends synoptically are very good in fact for those that want snow and ice later in November. They are very similar to this time last year. After next week we should see the establishment of high pressure over Scandinavia and hopefully that will extend across the latitudes immediately north of us. There are already signs of very cold air approaching the Northeast of the continent shortly. Very cold air. There are also early signs of the amplification of the jet stream taking track further south which is again needed and again is similar to last year at this stage.

Just a proviso here though that just because the main force of the jet stream takes a southerly track into North Africa does not automatically give us the blocking pressure to the North because of the tendency for the stream to split into a Northern and Southern arm. We need to see the Northern arm very weak to establish a blocking high pressure to our north giving us our Northeast or East winds. This is what happened late November last year.

This is what we want to see at this stage. A nice cold feed from the Artic and Siberia into Eastern Europe and high pressure over Scandinavia.

Just to illustrate the point on the Jet Stream a bit further. It's a good trend at this stage. We just need to weaken the Northern arm. We should not feel too bad about the Southern arm continuing to attack North Africa like a big vindictive finger.

That on it's own does not mean it will be cold here but it is a prerequisite to a bitter winter in this country to have that cold pool to tap into when pressure builds to our north. I'm very confident for the second half of November. Could be completely wrong but I like what I see on the charts right now.

thanks so much darkman youre giving me great hope

i was losing hope in this winter there for a while!

darkman2 · 31-10-2011 12:18am

bb1234567 wrote: »

thanks so much darkman youre giving me great hope i was losing hope in this winter there for a while!

? Winter has not even started yet;)

leahyl · 31-10-2011 6:40am

Lads it's 5.34am and I'm wide awake for some reason! Have been for the last 2.5 hours! I was reading this forum and got a sudden urge to look back at the snow thread from last November/December! It was great looking back on all the snow reports from around the country! I hope with all of my heart for more of the same this year (but obv I don't want it so bad that people can't travel! We need to be better prepared in this country!).

Also I'm lying in bed now with the duvet pulled off me! It's so humid and it's the last day of October! Weather is crazy but I love it! :-D

Ok I'm outty! That was an extremely pointless post! I guess what I'm saying is I'm still hopeful we will get another arctic winter this year!

Discodog · 31-10-2011 11:20am

I can understand the weather enthusiasts desire for snow & cold but I will be delighted if we have a mild boring Winter. Thousands of people are still in serious arrears from last Winter's heating bills.

I know of several lads who have been laid off from Garden Centres because people fear another cold Winter & they won't risk buying plants - even though the weather is perfect now.

Luckily you Snow lovers have no influence

slowburner · 31-10-2011 11:40am

oisingeogho wrote: »

Don't know if anyone has seen this yet.
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=4442

Mark'sWxWorld

Gender: Male

Astrological Sign: Pisces

Occupation: Truck Driver

Location: Lennoxtown, Glasgow : East Dumbartonshire : United Kingdom

About Me

I am 27 years of age and I reside in the small community of Lennoxtown, just north of the city of Glasgow, Scotland. I got married to Karen Louise Simpson Shaw-Vogan on October 2005. I am a truck driver by profession and enjoy this very much. My passion is the weather and climate and always has been since I was a child. Originally from Newry, Northern Ireland, I lived in London, England for 2 years and during that time (1986-87)I experienced personally the effects of one of Great Britain's Worst Windstorms, known as the Great Storm of 1987, responsible in downing millions of trees and wrecking havoc across London, bringing the entire south of Britain to a standstill. This event from the age of 4 is likely the seed to my obsession with the weather!

Think I'll stick with M.T. for the time being but at least he's honest :pac:

Lucreto · 31-10-2011 11:47am

James Madden updated his site with his final outlook.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

He is still forecasting a prolonged winter.

slowburner · 31-10-2011 11:48am

Discodog wrote: »

I can understand the weather enthusiasts desire for snow & cold but I will be delighted if we have a mild boring Winter. Thousands of people are still in serious arrears from last Winter's heating bills.

I know of several lads who have been laid off from Garden Centres because people fear another cold Winter & they won't risk buying plants - even though the weather is perfect now.

Luckily you Snow lovers have no influence

Too true.
Not everyone has the luxury of thinking snow is fun. Think of the elderly, frightened to go out for fear of slipping and the homeless and those who cannot afford the rapidly rising costs of heating.
I like snow as much as the next person - there is no other weather quite so beautiful but you have to consider those less fortunate than you and how their lives will be affected.

Lucreto · 31-10-2011 11:53am

slowburner wrote: »

Think I'll stick with M.T. for the time being but at least he's honest :pac:

True but you will be surprise at the following these people have. It is like believing Michael Gallagher with his forecasts and people not buying plants for something he suppose to of said but didn't.

Blizzard 2010 · 31-10-2011 3:02pm

Lucreto wrote: »

James Madden updated his site with his final outlook.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

He is still forecasting a prolonged winter.

Fair play to James Madden he has stuck to his guns. I expect most of his predictions to be bang on.:D

Strangegravy · 31-10-2011 3:17pm

Su Campu wrote: »

A lot of warm air will be pumped northwards from the mid Atlantic over the next couple of weeks, which will serve to build high pressure over northern latitudes, something along the lines of October-November 2009. A positive sign if you're looking for a cold easterly towards the end of the month. Will it play out like that? $64M ?.

I was thinking about this too.

Will the way the weather's acting now have a positive or negative impact on the rest of the winter, it's certainly strange to have these seemingly constant southerly winds over us for so long, will be interesting to see what knock on effect, if any, this will have in the coming weeks..

oisingeogho · 31-10-2011 3:24pm

i love the way people on here always question the people who who are saying a mild winter and completely agree with those who are saying a cold winter.

TheMilkyPirate · 31-10-2011 3:31pm

oisingeogho wrote: »

i love the way people on here always question the people who who are saying a mild winter and completely agree with those who are saying a cold winter.

Just being hopeful

derekon · 31-10-2011 5:13pm

Mark Vogan (who was pretty accurate last year) has just issued his UK, Ireland and Europe winter forecast for 2011-2012.

He is calling for a severe winter to commence around mid December with heavy snow falls and sub zero temps across Ireland and Britain. Read the attached , snow fans will be salivating at the mouth...........however the million dollar question is: will he be right?

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

bb1234567 · 31-10-2011 6:33pm

aw derekon just beat me to it ! just about to post that , im so happy. also another piece of great news for us, piers corbyn whos winter forecast was much the same as james madden last year(ie correct about nov/dec wrong about jan/feb) and called summer very well is also going for a very cold and snowy winter this yeat too, youll be happy to hear!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGVzZvX4J6U
and one more piece of great news,Brian Gaze was previously going for a mild winter. but if you follow his comments on the TWO winter forum, and Christmas forecast updates , he is clearly leaning towards a cold winter now, at least the first half.
looking great for us now, just seems to really accuweather going for amild winter now! yay

:D

Winter 2011/2012

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