Winter 2011/2012

bb1234567 · 26-10-2011 5:11pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Because it has happened before! Last years flooding was preceded by snow is one example. The previous year we had also flooding and within two - three weeks we had a potent cold snap with snow. it will probably occur during the second half of November.

you gave me hope

Speak Now · 26-10-2011 5:14pm

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Because it has happened before! Last years flooding was preceded by snow is one example. The previous year we had also flooding and within two - three weeks we had a potent cold snap with snow. it will probably occur during the second half of November.

Probability and Statistics

I like your studies Blizzard

bb1234567 · 26-10-2011 5:17pm

HellFireClub wrote: »

Recently it occurred to me that what we are really dealing with here is increasing levels of precipitation. When it is cold enough, it falls as snow, when it isn't, it falls as heavy rain. The last 3 summers, have been the wettest I can remember, the last 2 winters have been the coldest and the snowiest I can remember (with the obvious exception of the big snow of the 1980's), and here we have had the wettest October on record for the East or maybe Dublin anyway.

Is there not a pattern to this starting to emerge????

well i dont know maybe the summers weve been gatting more rain, but definitely notmore precipitaion in last two winters anyway,last 2 winters were very dry well during the cold snap they were very dry, jan 2010 was very dry, and dec 2010 was 3rd driest december ever recorded. scary to think how much snow we got and how dry the month was. you were probably under the illusion there was more preiciptaion last year becuase so much snow,when actually just 1 inch of rain=20 inches of snow:eek: if precipitation was average last year we would have gotten like 3x more snow than we got and at that we had like 1 foot the first round,then 1.5 feet the second round:eek: hopefully itll be reallycold this year and precipitaion is average and we could have about 4/5 feet

:Dbut usually when it get very cold precipitaion is below normal.

Speak Now · 26-10-2011 5:27pm

Precipitation in Ireland will really always be below average during cold spells.

Kippure · 26-10-2011 7:01pm

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111026/12/384/h850t850eu.png

Looks whats turning up in FI.......

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

bb1234567 · 26-10-2011 7:17pm

Kippure wrote: »

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111026/12/384/h850t850eu.png

Looks whats turning up in FI.......

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

that bad? if so who cares, its so early its not even november yet, why do people think that because charts arent showing cold means winter wont be cold, they change like everyday anyway!!

opinion guy · 26-10-2011 7:18pm

Kippure wrote: »

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111026/12/384/h850t850eu.png

Looks whats turning up in FI.......

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Um, for those of us less knowledgable what does it mean ? Coldness coming ?

Kippure · 26-10-2011 7:23pm

Just see this as a guide. Yes it shows an easterly. Yes it would be chilly if that chart came off.

snowstreams · 26-10-2011 7:44pm

oisingeogho wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=

From watching this netweather.tv video of their long range forecast, It looks like that setup in FI might happen quite often. They showed a chart with high pressure over scandanavia being common over the winter.
But netweather did also say that the real winter probably wont start until february when the high pressures change location and allow more northerly winds down and stronger easterlys. Hopefully they will change their minds by the time they've done the full winter forecast in mid-november.

opinion guy · 26-10-2011 7:45pm

Sorry - trying to educate myself a little - whats FI ?

snowstreams · 26-10-2011 7:47pm

opinion guy wrote: »

Sorry - trying to educate myself a little - whats FI ?

It just means Fantasy Island. They say FI when the forecast is beyond 192hours, therefore its lot likely to happen but gives you a rough idea of what the weather patterns could be like in a few weeks.

nacho libre · 27-10-2011 6:38pm

snowstreams wrote: »

But netweather did also say that the real winter probably wont start until february when the high pressures change location and allow more northerly winds down and stronger easterlys. Hopefully they will change their minds by the time they've done the full winter forecast in mid-november.

To be honest I found it hard to follow his techincal explanation as to just why February might turnout cold. The idea of current net winds total around the earth playing a significant role as to how later winter will pan out is hard to follow- well at least for me it is!
He also mentioned something about an Aleutian ridge being a significant factor too.
Anyway, I don't envy his task of doing the official forecast, considering their summer forecast proved to be wrong, and as as he mentioned in the video there is a lot of conflicting signals as to how winter will go.

derekon · 27-10-2011 8:56pm

Snow lovers,

The omens are not looking good this year for snow in Ireland as more and more forecasters (with the exception of James Madden) are predicting an average or even mild winter for the UK and Ireland.

Check out the Accu Weather Europe forecast link below - this does not hold out much hope for snow in the UK (and by extension Ireland - temps should be warm enough to prevent snow) :mad:

At this stage, I thinks its best for people to stick to met.ie when looking at potential snow during the upcoming winter. You are only fooling yourself and getting your hopes up by looking at Fantasy Island charts that rarely materialise in reality...................

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56653/winter_forecast_europe.asp

bb1234567 · 27-10-2011 9:29pm

accuweather,postman pat who else?pretty sure no one! met office dont count,they dont even do long range,nerve of them to criticise others after predcting bbq summer in 2010 and mild winter last year:rolleyes: .
most are still sticking with cold winter im pretty sure, James madden ,mark vogan, joe bastardi, netweather, weather services international, peter odonell, brian gaze thinks this winter may be cold, many amateur forecasters on the site ''daily mail -winter 2011/2012 bad like winter 2010/2011 debate''.this guy user jimmy d posted about --heres his forecast ''http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2010/10/21/winter-forecast-201011-final-update/'' also piers corbyn hinted at a very cold winter, and has posted articles a while ago about uk getting severe future winters,also TWO weather going for cold winter---http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-news/local-wishaw-news/wishaw-news/2011/10/26/holyrood-diary-shotts-msp-alex-neil-76495-29657776/ an american weather service unnamed in article that correctly predicted the cold weather last year again thinks this winter will be cold.
Also most long range charts i dont know much about but everyone on the site i just mentioned are saying all winter months looking very cold based on most charts predictions:)also a lot of nature signs pointing towards a cold winter.
dont lose hope snowlovers ,cold forecasters still outnumber the mild forecasters!!:D:D:D

derekon · 27-10-2011 9:32pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

accuweather,postman pat who else?pretty sure no one! met office dont count,they dont even do long range,nerve of them to criticise others after predcting bbq summer in 2010 and mild winter last year:rolleyes: .
most are still sticking with cold winter im pretty sure, James madden ,mark vogan, joe bastardi, pws, netweather, weather services international, peter odonell, brian gaze thinks this winter may be cold, many amateur forecasters on the site ''daily mail -winter 2011/2012 bad like winter 2010/2011 debate''.this guy user jimmy d posted about --heres his forecast ''http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2010/10/21/winter-forecast-201011-final-update/'' also piers corbyn hinted at a very cold winter, and has posted articles a while ago about uk getting severe future winters,also TWO weather going for cold winter---http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-news/local-wishaw-news/wishaw-news/2011/10/26/holyrood-diary-shotts-msp-alex-neil-76495-29657776/ an american weather service unnamed in article that correctly predicted the cold weather last year again thinks this winter will be cold.
Also most long range charts i dont know much about but everyone on the site i just mentioned are saying all winter months looking very cold based on most charts predictions:)also a lot of nature signs pointing towards a cold winter.
dont lose hope snowlovers ,cold forecasters still outnumber the mild forecasters!!:D:D:D

If the above post was a car on the M50, the driver would be locked up for serious speeding!

BEASTERLY · 27-10-2011 9:35pm

First air frost here last night, down to -0.8c. Expecting even lower again tonight, I cant taste winter coming

damino · 27-10-2011 9:40pm

Getting that feeling of deja vu of Autumn 2009 and look what happened. Freezing January and consistent frosts throughout winter and spring 2010. Got a leaflet from the County Council to give suggestions of keeping warm and stopping your pipes from freezing for this winter. Never got anything like that before. Does the authorities know something that they are not divulging.

lord lucan · 27-10-2011 9:47pm

damino wrote: »

Got a leaflet from the County Council to give suggestions of keeping warm and stopping your pipes from freezing for this winter. Never got anything like that before. Does the authorities know something that they are not divulging.

Just covering their arse from criticism should it freeze/snow again. They'll point to leaflets,extra grit & salt and say they done everything in their power to be ready.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2011 9:48pm

damino wrote: »

Does the authorities know something that they are not divulging.

god i really really hope so, love a nice 63' winter to pop up this winter without a word of warning:p:p but i am genuinely kind of getting that feeling though that the govnt know something we dont,like this winter really is going to be really bad but forecasters arent saying its going to be that bad to prevent panincking people, i sure hope so:cool:

damino · 27-10-2011 10:04pm

I can't recall the name of some climatologist but he claimed that it only took 7 years for Ireland's and Western Europe's climate to go from temperate to tundra, a kind of sudden climate change as that occurred in times past. He studied sediments in some ancient lakes around Ireland. Could we be in the process of some cold winters in the years ahead? Who knows but it beats the mild, dreary and damp ones.

jimmy.d · 27-10-2011 11:49pm

damino wrote: »

Getting that feeling of deja vu of Autumn 2009 and look what happened. Freezing January and consistent frosts throughout winter and spring 2010. Got a leaflet from the County Council to give suggestions of keeping warm and stopping your pipes from freezing for this winter. Never got anything like that before. Does the authorities know something that they are not divulging.

this is how the uk does it http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/being-prepared

28-10-2011 12:21am

It's a bit like the safety instructions that you get every time you get on an aeroplane, just one day you wished you'd listened.

Villain · 28-10-2011 11:03am

I had a low of -1.3c last night but looks like I won't see another frost for a while.

james405 · 28-10-2011 11:06am

I certainly hope not! Im cycling to work at the moment and no chance of a car till after christmas! It can snow all it likes come january

Blizzard 2010 · 28-10-2011 11:09am

Come the end of November (when we have had the first of Many snowfalls) I can see James Madden saying " Told you so":D

Speak Now · 29-10-2011 9:50am

Latest CFS

BEASTERLY · 29-10-2011 10:07am

There has been a trend in the models over the last week of heights building to our north in about 10 days time. Hopefully a trend that continues for the next 3 months.

nacho libre · 29-10-2011 12:43pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Latest CFS

Those CFS charts seem to change frequently, it's hard to know what to make of them.

Conor30 · 29-10-2011 4:05pm

Netweather are going for just an average winter now.

bb1234567 · 29-10-2011 4:51pm

Conor30 wrote: »

Netweather are going for just an average winter now.

oh i give up,so many forecasters chopping and changing i really have no idea how this winter will turn out, now about 50/50 sort of thinking itll be very cold and snowy but then again id only be minorly surprised if it turns out mild,oh im so confused, i dont know now im just going to wait and see:)

Winter 2011/2012

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