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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Problem is nobody lives in the Donegal mountains so its not really interesting for anyone!

    Theres snow on top of the mountains for most of the winter every year but still promising to hear it this early.

    Freezing cold here but obviously not high enough for snow, I'm about 250ft above but I'd say there'll be nothing below 1500ft or so


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 20 October, 2010
    _____________________________

    (answer to question earlier) Clear skies around Kilkenny -- not too likely again until middle to end of next week now, although you might get the odd brief clear spell tonight and possibly Sunday night.

    Forecasts --

    TODAY ... sunny with increasing cloud especially for Connacht where the cloud may arrive mid-morning, although still a few weak showers in parts of Ulster, chilly at first with some local black ice on roads, but struggling up to 11-14 C by mid-afternoon in a light northwest wind backing to southwest later.

    TONIGHT -- Under a nearly full moon, quite chilly but moderating after midnight due to increased cloud cover, so that lows may be around midnight but close to frost levels. I expect you'll see a lunar halo during the evening then skies will cloud over so only bright objects like Jupiter will be visible. Some fog patches may develop after midnight. Lowest temperatures -1 to +3 then moderating to about +4 to +6 C.

    THURSDAY ... cloudy with some brighter intervals, light rain developing in parts of southwest and Connacht, highs 12-15 C milder in southeast. Moon at full phase overnight, may not be visible in many areas though.

    FRIDAY ... further outbreaks of light rain mostly northern half of the country, amounts 2-4 mms, but heavier rain by the overnight hours as winds pick up from SSW at 15-30 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Higher than normal spring tides possible south and west coast. Rainfalls 10-20 mms by midnight.

    SATURDAY ... windy at times with heavy rain in the morning (a further 10-20 mms), clearing later to partly cloudy with isolated showers, winds veering southerly to westerly and peak gusts near 45 mph, highs near 13 C after a fairly mild night near with lows 8-10 C.

    SUNDAY ... partly cloudy to overcast, showers or longer periods of light rain in moderate NW winds, cooler with highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY ... cloudy with showers, highs near 12 C.

    NEXT WEEK should remain rather cloudy and a bit milder than average, but it will turn rather chilly late in the week under high pressure, especially overnight lows near frost levels, before milder air from the south arrives on the final weekend of the month. If those charts verify, temperatures could hit 16 C near the end of the month.

    Meanwhile, today (Tues 19th) here was a sunny day that warmed up to almost 20 C. Wednesday looks about the same here too. Then we get into some rain and wind for several days. The east coast has cooled slightly from an outbreak of modified arctic air but it was about 13-15 C in the big cities, although only 7-10 C across the Great Lakes with mixed sleety showers in places. The disturbance that would be Richard continues to hover just below "naming" intensity near the Cayman Islands.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 21 October, 2010
    ____________________________

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, but largely dry ... some drizzle may continue in the southeast from earlier rain, but this has started to break up now, and then some parts of Ulster could see drizzle or light rain by mid-day. A few places may get a slight shower but average amounts will be trace to 2 mms, as high temperatures push slowly up to about 13 C.

    TONIGHT will bring low cloud, fog or mist in most places, then some light rain, with lows only falling to about 7 or 8 C.

    FRIDAY will become breezy then locally windy with periods of heavy rain developing, 10-15 mms possible, as the rain moves across the country starting mid-day west and ending up across the east coast by evening. Highs will reach about 13-14 C. Friday night will continue showery with a further 5 to 10 mms of rain possible, winds SSW 20-40 mph, and lows only 8-10 C. Full moon overnight and these winds may combine to bring about some rather high water levels in the southwest coastal regions.

    SATURDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sun with a few residual showers, as winds veer to westerly 20-40 mph (some gusts to 50 mph west coast).

    SUNDAY will continue breezy with cooler temperatures and more passing showers turning rather heavy at times in Connacht. Winds will become NW 20 to 30 mph, and highs around 9 or 10 C.

    MONDAY will be breezy and quite chilly with passing showers, some of them containing hail, with lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C. Monday night should see some clearing and possible frost, then a sunny start to TUESDAY with increasing cloud.

    From that point on, the week should begin to turn milder with moderate south to southwest winds and occasional showery rainfalls. Nothiing too extreme is expected, gusts to 30-40 mph at times, and highs generally 13-14 C. By the final weekend of October it may even be milder.

    Today (Wed 20th) here was a sunny day with highs near 18 C. There was a fair amount of cirrostratus type cloud by evening. Nothing too active on the map across Canada or the U.S. today, but Tropical Depression 19 has formed and may become T.S. Richard by later today. It could head off in almost any direction from where it is stalled out now west of Jamaica.



    SATURDAY will


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 22 October, 2010
    _________________________

    Moon reaches full phase at 0238 summer time or 0138 GMT (Sat 23). Given tonight's fairly strong SW to W wind, high tides may run about 0.5m above their usual full moon heights, at least on the south and west coasts.

    TODAY ... cloudy with a few brighter intervals across the south and central counties, light rain spreading into the north, winds picking up gradually to reach SW 20-30 mph late this afternoon and this evening. An area of heavy showers will hit the west coast about mid-afternoon and move rather quickly across central Ireland to reach the east coast by early evening. This will bring about 10-12 mms of rain on average. But before that arrives, there could be some much lighter showers out ahead of this front.

    TONIGHT ... clearing for a while after the rain moves through, but a few more showers developing, as winds veer to SW 20-35 mph then WNW 25-40 mph. Turning colder with lows reaching 4 C in some western counties, likely staying closer to 7 C east and south.

    SATURDAY ... intervals of cloud and sun with scattered showers, some of these becoming heavy with hail and possibly thunder. Winds WNW 20-40 mph and highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, rather cool with a northerly wind at about 15 mph, any showers likely brief and confined to north, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY ... frost likely to start, sunny with increasing cloud especially in the western counties where rain may follow by evening, lows near -2 C in rural districts to +3 C in large towns and near some coasts, highs near 11 C and probably staying at that level overnight as rain picks up with a southerly wind setting in.

    TUESDAY ... breezy and milder with showers, winds SSW 20-35 mph for a while, highs near 13 C.

    WED-THURS continuing mild with some further rain, moderate S to SW winds, possibly as high as 35 mph in gusts by late Thursday. Highs near 13 C.

    FRI-SAT likely to be quite mild too, with intervals of rain developing, and moderate SW winds, highs 14-15 C. By Sunday 31st it may be a little cooler again with more of a westerly wind, but still above 12 C daytime.

    Today's weather in my part of the world was mostly cloudy although rain held off until evening, with a mild south wind and highs near 15 C (this on Thursday of course) ... tropical storm Richard has formed (finally) and seems to be considering his options, possibly looping around and heading back to the northwest after drifting southeast all day. The big story however might be Typhoon Megi which recently hit the northern Philippines (Luzon) hard and now threatens to move inland in China just to the northwest of Taiwan around the city of Xiamen (population 2.5 million) which was formerly called Amoy. There's a thread on this storm with some links to satellites and radar. With the time difference in the far east, this storm is expected to hit Saturday their time, but Friday night in GMT. At last report it had winds of about 100 mph.

    With this front moving in rapidly, take note, driving conditions may deteriorate rapidly as well, especially for people travelling west. Watch the other threads for more information (in case I'm not able to update here) but as I said above, expect this on the west coast around 2-4 pm and around Dublin by 7-9 pm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 23 October, 2010
    _______________________________

    TODAY ... frequent showers this morning, blustery west winds veering to northwest by mid-day, 20-35 mph ... showers becoming more isolated but also somewhat heavier where they hit, with hail and thunder possible ... some sunny breaks in west and north by late afternoon as winds veer more northerly there ... highs 10-11 C, with 3-5 mms rain on average but 5-10 mms in southeast.

    TONIGHT ... cloudy with clear breaks more frequent after midnight, winds diminishing to N 15 mph, chilly, just a few left-over showers mainly in Ulster ... lows 2 to 5 C.

    SUNDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, rather cool with a northerly wind at about 15 mph, longer intervals of sunshine in west with any showers likely brief and confined to north or east, highs near 10 C.

    MONDAY ... a sharp frost likely to start, some patchy fog and icy roads in rural areas, then sunny with increasing cloud especially in the western counties where rain may follow by evening, lows near -2 C in rural districts to +3 C in large towns and near some coasts, highs near 11 C and probably staying at that level overnight as rain picks up with a southerly wind setting in.

    TUESDAY ... breezy and milder with showers or periods of rain, winds SSW 20-35 mph for a while, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mms.

    WED-THURS continuing mild with some further rain, moderate S to SW winds, possibly as high as 35 mph in gusts by late Thursday. Highs near 13 C.

    FRI-SAT likely to be quite mild too, with intervals of rain developing, and moderate SW winds, highs 14-15 C. By Sunday 31st it may be a little cooler again with more of a westerly wind, but still above 12 C daytime.

    Meanwhile, my local weather (Friday 22nd) was overcast and mild with light rain at times here, and the high was 15 C. The east coast of the U.S. became a bit cooler today with highs of about 12-14 C there. Tropical Storm Richard seems to have picked a direction (west) and is hovering off the northeast tip of Honduras early today (Saturday). Typhoon Megi is moving inland at this hour (which is about 3 p.m. local time) just to the west of Xiamen, China where it is quite windy now but probably won't quite reach hurricane force as the centre of the storm has weakened to borderline cat-1. Rainfalls in that region could be 100-300 mms.

    Watch for updates here or on other threads, if any locally heavy showers develop around mid-day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE ... expect lows tonight to fall a bit lower than previous forecast to about -1 to +3 C with scattered frost and a few icy sections possible on roads especially in central and inland eastern counties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 24 October, 2010
    ___________________________

    TODAY ... sunny intervals after any morning fog or low cloud dissipate ... a few patches of high cloud at times ... chilly but moderating to highs near 10 or 11 C in light northerly winds.

    TONIGHT ... clear and frosty, rural lows dropping to -3 C, urban areas about
    +2 C ... patchy ground fog and widespread icy roads ... calm winds.

    MONDAY ... sunny at first, cloud quickly spreading into west and dimming the sun in the east by afternoon ... light rain on outer west coast by mid-afternoon as winds there pick up to SE 15-25 mph ... not very windy elsewhere. Highs 9-11 C during day, hovering around 11 C by evening.

    TUESDAY ... breezy, very mild ... highs 13-14 C ... winds SW 20-35 mph, intervals of rain but trending to partly cloudy in southwest later. Rainfalls about 10 mms.

    WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy, showers, mild, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 or 13 C.

    THURSDAY ... partly cloudy, breezy (WSW 20-30 mph), not quite as mild, showers developing, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

    FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... breezy with a period of rain, heavy at times, affecting most regions but heavier in the south. Highs near 12 C.

    SUNDAY (31st) ... partly cloudy and breezy, clearing later, highs near 10 C.

    Meanwhile, my local weather (Sat 23rd) was cloudy with afternoon and evening rain, strong winds off to the west not affecting us here yet ... high was about 14 C. It is warming up rapidly in eastern parts of North America ahead of a slowly deepening low in Nebraska that will eventually bring heavy wet snow to Winnipeg and northern Ontario (mid-week). Richard looks like becoming a hurricane soon as he (it?) moves west along the north coast of Honduras towards a landfall in Belize late Sunday or early Monday (could briefly hit cat-2).


  • Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators Posts: 26,928 Mod ✭✭✭✭rainbow kirby


    What's the odds of icy roads in Dublin - marathon's at 9am tomorrow :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 7:30 p.m.
    ______________________

    For that question above, would say that there could be a few slippery spots in the shade, but won't that be mostly the problem for the front runners? By the time a few dozen people have run through, the conditions for the pack would probably improve a bit. Depends on how far from the city centre the course runs, I would expect lowest temperatures to vary from about +2 C near the centre of Dublin (and seafront) to about -2 C at the airport and some other outlying parts of the city. It certainly looks capable of dropping to about -4 C (in general across central Ireland) at the coldest part of the night around 06-08h.

    Meanwhile, update on forecast for Thursday night into Friday ... models are now trending to a stormy interval with S to SW winds of 40-60 mph with a rapidly deepening low moving past Connacht during the night. This wind likely to peak around sunrise Friday then slowly fall off to SW 20-40 mph later Friday (but this could be further updated).

    Richard became a hurricane and will be making landfall as a cat-1 or weak cat-2 storm near Belize City at about 2200h (2100 GMT) which is around
    4 p.m. local time. Raining and 12 C here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 25 October, 2010
    __________________________

    TODAY ... the severe morning chill may be slow to moderate especially in valleys, and so watch out for lingering frost, icy sections of roads and pavements, and patches of dense fog near ponds and streams. There should be a good amount of morning sun for many places, but cloud will spread into the west rather quickly. By about 2-3 p.m., the worst of the chill should have dissipated with afternoon highs of 8 to 11 C. These temperatures could fall off slightly in east Leinster and Ulster this evening but with a rising south wind and rain in the west, it will stay mild there.

    TONIGHT ... intervals of rain spreading across the country but becoming heavy only in the west, where 8-15 mms could fall (much less further east). Fog will develop and winds of 20-30 mph from the south will set in ... lows will be generally near 8 C east and 10 C west.

    TUESDAY ... further heavy showers giving 10-20 mms, especially west and north, winds rising to SW 30-45 mph, very mild, highs near 13 C. By Tuesday night, quite windy with squally showers and chance of thunder. Lows around 6 C as it turns somewhat cooler after midnight in a strong westerly wind.

    WEDNESDAY ... partly to mostly cloudy, showers mainly north and northwest, relatively mild, with highs near 12 C. Rainfalls generally 2-5 mms.

    THURSDAY ... some bright or even sunny intervals at first, morning lows of about 3-6 C, then cloudy, becoming rather windy and mild, with periods of rain, heavy at times in the west, generally 10-20 mms. Highs will be 12-14 C.

    By Thursday night into FRIDAY, windy with squally showers at times, winds from the SSW veering more to WSW at 30-50 mph but closer to 40-65 west coast. Temperatures steady near 10 C. Clearing slowly by late Friday.

    WEEKEND -- Saturday partly cloudy, a few showers, breezy, highs near 10 C. Sunday (31st), becoming windy and rather chilly with strong WNW winds in Connacht and moderate westerly elsewhere, rain setting in on the strong winds but becoming showery further east, south. Highs near 9 C.

    A slight frost may follow in early November, but then a milder spell will follow (it will be similar to this week in timing, but perhaps less intense). This will be the remnants of a major storm now developing in the central U.S., moving across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday, then off through Quebec into the Labrador Sea by Friday. Without a lot of further developments, the remnants of this low will be passing north of Ireland by about 3-4 November. The weather today in Vancouver was wet at times, with a gusty SE wind. It was about 12 C. Meanwhile, Richard has moved inland in Belize as a cat-1 hurricane and will now die slowly over eastern Mexico.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 26 October, 2010
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... very mild with showers ending in eastern counties, then generally dry until an outbreak of heavy showers with thunder possible, spreading into western counties this afternoon and across the north this evening. Some parts of the southeast may remain dry. Rainfalls otherwise 5-15 mms. Highs could reach 16 or 17 C as winds from the SSW reach 20-40 mph.

    TONIGHT ... heavy showers continuing, but clearing later, windy, SW 20-40 mph, lows only 10-12 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy and very mild with SW winds 20-35 mph, highs near 15 C. Another batch of heavy showers likely by afternoon west, evening north and east.

    THURSDAY ... intervals of cloud and sun, becoming quite windy again by afternoon and evening (southerly 20-40 mph) with periods of heavy rain developing by evening. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

    FRIDAY ... windy and mild with heavy showers, partial clearing to follow as winds veer from S 30-50 mph to SW 35-55 mph (some higher gusts are possible). Lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

    SATURDAY ... partly cloudy and somewhat cooler with isolated showers, highs around 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... breezy becoming windy at times in Connacht, as a west to northwest gale develops, rather chilly with occasional rain and squally showers, highs near 9 C.

    The following week outlook remains about the same as discussed yesterday, which I have updated as follows ... A slight frost may follow in early November, but then a milder spell will follow (it will be similar to this week in timing, but perhaps less intense). This will be the remnants of a major storm now developing in the central U.S., moving across the Great Lakes region later today and Wednesday bringing wind gusts of 70 mph and a tornado risk for states from Lake Michigan to the Ohio River. This storm will then move off through Quebec into the Labrador Sea by Friday ... remnants of this low will be passing north of Ireland by about 3-4 November bringing further wind and rain then.

    The weather today in Vancouver (Monday 25th) was very gloomy and wet with a strong SW wind. It was about 12 C but felt colder.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 27 October, 2010
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... partly cloudy and continuing very mild, with a few passing showers but many places dry for most of the day ... winds SW 20-30 mph ... highs near 15 C ... heavier showers some with thunder, arriving late afternoon west, moving rapidly across to east coast by evening. Rainfall with this band about 5 mms.

    TONIGHT ... partly cloudy to overcast and mild, showers ending, fog patches mostly on higher terrain, lows 7-10 C.

    THURSDAY ... sunny intervals at first, increasing cloud and very mild again, winds backing to south 20-30 mph, rain arriving south and west coasts about mid-afternoon with rising wind speeds there ... highs near 15 C.

    THURSDAY NIGHT and FRIDAY ... windy and mild with rain, heavy at times, possibly thundery in some places ... 15-30 mms of rain likely ... winds will increase to SSW 35-55 mph with the higher gusts near the west coast and especially in Connacht. Overnight lows only dropping to about 12 C then highs near 16 C. Some sunny intervals may develop by afternoon.

    SATURDAY ... another rainy interval is likely with fog developing, morning lows near 8 and afternoon highs near 12 C. Winds may not be too strong but this situation is somewhat uncertain, with strong winds possible for regions just to the southeast of Ireland.

    SUNDAY ... partly cloudy and breezy, somewhat cooler, morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs about 10 C. Showers may redevelop in the north.

    OUTLOOK ... some of the latest guidance takes a colder start to the week out of the sequence (as compared to earlier forecasts) so that it may just stay mild through the week, and the very mild showery system already expected for mid to late week could turn out quite strong ... longer term indications suggest that the zonal Atlantic mild spell may last a while with colder air trying to push south from Greenland but having some trouble finding a good interval between fast-moving lows ... this may be good news if you're hoping for some really wintry weather by December, as it may be that more or less inevitable mild spell that we saw last year too.

    Meanwhile, on Tuesday 26th, the Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions saw a very strong storm system that had a central pressure as low as 955 mbs in Minnesota. See the thread on that if you want to read more details. Out my way on the west coast, a separate and weaker system gave cloud and drizzle with a rather chilly high of 9 C. Snow was falling across parts of Saskatchewan and North Dakota. On the other hand, it was 23 C in Washington DC and about 28 C further south in Virginia and North Carolina.

    Tropical action has slowed to a crawl with just a slight chance of another named system in the central Atlantic by later this week. I think there may be two more named systems this year (give or take).

    Enjoy the mild weather as it will be cold soon enough. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 28 October, 2010
    _______________________________

    ALERT for heavy rainfalls over the next 3-4 days ... while this likely won't be as bad as last November's flooding rains, amounts of 50-75 mms could fall in total over the four days starting today. Fortunately this will hit with the soil moisture levels fairly low and in fact some aspects of the heavy rain may be good (once it's over). The main problem will be poor driving conditions and at times very poor weather for outdoor activities especially climbing as there will also be strong winds at times and while it may feel rather mild near sea level it could be only 4-7 C at summit levels with 40-60 mph winds at times.

    TODAY ... cloudy with periods of rain slowly spreading across the country from southwest to northeast, amounts likely heavier in the south and west (near 15 mms) ... the morning could remain dry in Dublin and the northeast .... winds will increase gradually too, reaching S 25-45 mph by late afternoon. Mild although the strong winds will make it feel rather raw, and highs 13-15 C.

    TONIGHT ... periods of rain and strong southerly winds, chance of thunder especially south, 15-30 mms rain possible, foggy with very poor driving conditions, lows 8-11 C.

    FRIDAY ... heavy showers continuing but becoming more confined to the east by mid-day, as winds veer to SW 20-40 mph (30-55 mph Connacht and Clare, west Kerry). Some sunny intervals could develop mid-day west but the rain may continue heavy at times with thunder in eastern counties, thus rainfalls could vary from 10 mms west to 30 mms east. Highs near 14 C in the east and near 16 C in the southwest, 12-14 C northwest.

    FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY ... winds slowly diminishing, becoming foggy with rain at times, then another interval of heavy rain setting in, as winds back around to SE 20-30 mph, falling off light and variable in the southwest as the next low moves across the near Atlantic into the Bristol Channel. Temperatures steady 10-11 C south, 8-9 C north. By late Saturday, another 15-30 mms of rain likely especially south, and winds backing further to NE 15-30 mph.

    SUNDAY ... windy, cool to cold depending on elevation, and raw, with rain or drizzle at times, winds NNW 20-40 mph (possibly 30-50 mph in more exposed areas) ... the damp will go right through you so dress very warmly ... at least in some western counties it may not rain continuously ... temperatures near 8 or 9 C could fall off to 5 C in parts of the north and northwest. Snow may fall on high summits.

    MONDAY ... cloudy, breezy, drizzle (or sleet at high elevations) ending then more rain spreading in late in the day, milder again with temperatures starting out near 4 C and rising to about 12 C by evening as a southwest gale sets in.

    For the rest of the week, mild and windy with occasional rain, highs generally in the 12-14 C range. No frosts likely, any snow on summits likely to melt.

    I'm expecting about two weeks of this Atlantic weather, then possibly a turn to much colder conditions mid-month.

    Okay, if that's not enough weather for you, we had some nice sunshine here for a change and 14 C this afternoon (Wed 27th). It was quite warm on the east coast (near 22 C) as the strong storm died out slowly over northern Ontario, but snow spread from North Dakota into Minnesota. There are plenty of minor disturbances brewing in the tropics and one of them could become "Shary" (I hope it's a major storm to get rid of this name). :D

    I will try to update forecasts when possible but check the ongoing threads as I think there will be lots of eyes on the developing weather later today.

    Something nice to look at:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,085 ✭✭✭highdef


    Many thanks M.T. - I read your forecasts almost everyday. About bloody time I thank you for it :)
    On the upside, despite this weekend looking so horrendous, I think I might just about get a dry and calm slot in for my Halloween/house warming in north Kildare on Saturday evening. Please don't let it rain :eek:

    Oh, and I love your hint of much colder weather from mid november or so :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday 7:45 p.m.
    ________________________

    Thanks, but Saturday evening looks rather wet, hopefully not too wet.

    Just looking at the model runs, no changes to the scenario unfolding, but for tonight, I neglected to give wind speeds as per previous forecast, so be on the lookout for gusts to 60 or 65 mph in western counties overnight, more like 40-50 mph further east, as the strongest part of the offshore storm moves past western Mayo on its way to the outer Hebrides.

    Once this strong wind subsides a little, the front will slowly edge east through Ireland late tonight and Friday morning, bringing with it a band of heavier rainfall that could contain a few thundery downpours. That rain should be largely east of Ireland by Friday night, then yet another low forms further west and moves into the south on Saturday afternoon and evening. The centre of this low will stay offshore to the south and head towards the Channel -- that track will force the winds to back around all weekend until they complete almost a full circle and start coming out of the northwest by Sunday. Then the remnants of the strong North American low arrive in two waves on Monday and Wednesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 29 October, 2010
    _________________________

    TODAY ... cloudy with periods of rain, becoming heavy at times in the south this morning, possibly thundery at times, spreading to the east by afternoon. Amounts of 10-30 mms likely, with the least in northwest counties. Highs near 12 C northwest, 14-16 C southeast. Winds only moderate but sometimes light, from the southeast in eastern Ireland, and from the northwest by afternoon in the west ... some brighter intervals following the rain in western counties.

    TONIGHT ... becoming foggy with near zero visibilities at times in rural areas and across higher terrain, winds SE 10-20 mph backing to E 15-25 mph, occasional light rain mostly in the south coastal districts. Lows 8-10 C.

    SATURDAY ... mostly cloudy and misty or drizzly to start, although some dry intervals in the far north ... periods of rain with fog redeveloping across southern counties by mid-afternoon, becoming heavy overnight ... rainfalls light in far north, 5-15 mms central, 15-30 mms south. Highs about 12 C. Winds light easterly with the rain, moderate E-NE further north (gusting to 40 mph in Donegal and northern coastal counties).

    SUNDAY ... rain continuing at times, heavier in the southeast, winds becoming northerly 15-30 mph, chilly with mist, drizzle or fog, the occasional witch or goblin too, temperatures steady near 8 C or slowly falling in northwest to about 5-6 C. Rainfalls near 5 mms generally but 10-20 mms south.

    MONDAY ... rain at times, becoming windy again from the southwest, milder, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mms. Due mostly to the long interval of wet weather, some local flooding could develop.

    OUTLOOK ... very mild with some showery intervals but also some dry weather at times. Highs mid-week around 14 C. Windy at times.

    The weather here on Thursday (28th) was cloudy with some light rain at times, but it was mild and not too unpleasant. Highs reached 14 C. A warm spell ended late in the day on the east coast as strong west winds arrived, but earlier, highs were near 24 C (today only 12 C expected). A new tropical storm, Shary, has formed east of Bermuda but probably won't amount to much, but a more interesting storm seems to be trying to form quite far south near the coast of Guyana (in South America) at about 8 deg N -- this may become a tropical storm or even a hurricane over the weekend or early next week. It could move inland in Venezuela, but some models are taking it northwest towards Puerto Rico. A third candidate for storm-hood (?) is located southwest of Madeira. The next two names to be used this year are Tomas and Virginie. Then it's on to Walter and the Greek alphabet after that (used only once, in late 2005).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 30 October, 2010
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... dry to start in most places, some sunshine in the north and east mostly, but also one or two showers in a freshening southeast breeze. Rather mild around mid-day but rain moving into the south on stronger east winds 15-30 mph, then spreading slowly north during the late afternoon and evening ... highs 12-14 C, rainfalls 10-15 mms south (by end of day) to 3-7 mms north (mostly evening).

    TONIGHT ... periods of rain with fog developing, winds backing to ENE 20-30 mph, chilly and feeling raw, lows 6-8 C.

    SUNDAY ... rain breaking up to areas of drizzle or light rain, with some brighter intervals developing, winds backing around further to NNW 20-30 mph and quite chilly with highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls heavier southeast than elsewhere and generally 5-15 mms. Despite all that, there is some chance that parts of Donegal, west Connacht, Clare and Limerick could break into sunshine during the afternoon.

    SUNDAY NIGHT ... clearing briefly and rather chilly, fog developing, a slight frost in some inland northern districts but temperatures probably rising after midnight for most as winds back to southwesterly. Lows 2-7 C.

    MONDAY ... breezy to windy (SSW 30-45 mph by afternoon) and turning milder again, with intermittent rain developing, becoming heavy in Connacht by evening. Highs 12-15 C.

    TUESDAY ... showery, windy, mild, highs near 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... showery, windy, very mild, highs near 16 C.

    OUTLOOK ... slightly cooler but still above 10 C for most, in a west to northwest flow of unsettled partly cloudy Atlantic air mass.

    The weather here in western Canada was cloudy and mild on Friday with a bit of light rain, and at present we have snow only above 1200m on the local mountains. Shary became a stronger tropical storm east of Bermuda but appears to be rapidly phasing with the westerlies now and should lose tropical characteristics soon. Tomas continues to strengthen and many observers feel that it could become a major hurricane near Jamaica by early November, with Haiti also at risk (let's hope not).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 31 October, 2010
    ___________________________

    Just a reminder, summer time or daylight saving has come to an end and clocks were set back one hour this morning. Just to make things a bit more confusing for me, I still have a week of daylight saving time left, so for a week I am seven hours behind.

    TODAY ... rain will make little further progress north, so for parts of Connacht, northeast Leinster and most of Ulster, the day should remain largely dry with some sunshine at times by afternoon. Further south the rain will continue but may become more showery after noon with partial clearing around sunset. Northeast to northerly winds at 15-30 mph, rather chilly especially where this wind is stronger near the Irish Sea, with highs about 10 to 12 C. Rainfalls will vary from 20 mms locally in the south to zero in the north.

    TONIGHT ... partly cloudy with some longer clear intervals developing, shallow fog in valleys, chilly with lows 2-7 C, risk of a few areas of frost north central counties. Winds falling to near calm inland and W 15 mph near the west coast.

    MONDAY ... dry to start and some sunshine possible especially southeast, becoming much milder as 20-30 mph SSW winds develop, highs 13-16 C. Rain will move in quickly by mid-day in Connacht and may spread as far as a line from Dublin to Waterford but the southeast could remain dry. This rain will be heavier in Donegal and parts of north Connacht into west Ulster, with 15 mms possible there, and only 2-5 mms further south.

    TUESDAY ... breezy and very mild with further outbreaks of showery rain, lows only near 8-10 C and highs 13-16 C. Winds SW 20-40 mph.

    WEDNESDAY ... windy and very mild with occasional rain, winds 30-50 mph, highs near 15 or 16 C.

    THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... continued very breezy and mild with further showers and mild temperatures, winds somewhat more westerly, highs 12-14 C.

    OUTLOOK ... turning colder in stages, with some very chilly weather possible by later in the second week of November.

    Meanwhile, Saturday (30th) was a cloudy but dry day here with some light rain setting in by evening, and the high was about 13 C. The weather across most of North America is seasonable under high pressure of Pacific origins, nothing very far from normal to be found. Shary has more or less been swallowed up by the frontal system that is coming to you mid-week, so there will be a slight contribution there, and Tomas continues to intensify slowly in the eastern Caribbean, with a threat to Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, or eastern Cuba from a possible cat-3 or 4 storm late this week. From there it may become entangled in a low pressure system over the eastern U.S. and make a late surge north towards New England.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 1 November, 2010
    ____________________________

    TODAY ... becoming milder with moderate SSW winds developing, 15-30 mph for most places, with 25-45 mph by afternoon in Connacht. Periods of light rain this morning across the west and north, followed by a few heavier bursts of rain mostly in Connacht and Ulster this afternoon and evening. Highs near 13 C north to 15 C south. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mms but some places may remain dry or only 1-3 mms southeast.

    TONIGHT ... cloudy, very mild with occasional drizzle, fog and mist, winds remaining steady about SW 20-30 mph. Lows 9-11 C.

    TUESDAY ... breezy to windy for most, periods of rain becoming heavy at times by afternoon especially in Connacht, Clare into parts of Ulster and inland Leinster ... winds SW 25-45 mph with higher gusts by late afternoon, rainfalls 10-15 mms possible (again, not this much in southeast) and highs generally 14-16 C. Another mild night to follow, lows 8-10 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... continued breezy or windy, and very mild, with further light showery rain but possibly some brighter intervals developing, winds more WSW at 20-40 mph, highs 13-15 C. Staying mild overnight to Thursday morning near 7-9 C.

    THURSDAY ... variable cloud, another interval of heavier rain developing late in the day, steady SW winds at about 20-30 mph, highs near 14 C.

    FRIDAY ... windy and mild with showers, highs near 14 C. (winds SW to W at about 30-50 mph)

    SATURDAY ... breezy and turning cooler, with showers ... highs near 12 C ... winds becoming WNW 25-45 mph.

    OUTLOOK ... the models have conflicts in how much colder it may become next week, with the GFS model quite windy and turning very chilly, while the European model is less aggressive. This may point to an intermediate solution that favours frosty nights under higher pressure dropping southeast.

    Today (Sunday 31st) was a rather pleasant, sunny day until mid-afternoon when it rapidly clouded over with a strong SW wind, then rain followed this evening. The high earlier was 14 C. It remains somewhat bland across most of North America, and Tomas has lost quite a bit of intensity to fall back to tropical storm status. He may regain some strength mid-week and the threat to Jamaica or Haiti is not over yet.




  • steady rain here in wexford [the south east]for most of the day unfortunately...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    steady rain here in wexford [the south east]for most of the day unfortunately...

    Yeah was dry here in Waterford til about 12 or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 2 November, 2010
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... breezy to windy for most, periods of rain becoming heavy at times by afternoon especially in Connacht, Clare into parts of Ulster and inland Leinster ... winds SW 25-45 mph most of the day but higher gusts especially Connacht by late afternoon (55-65 mph possible), rainfalls 10-15 mms although perhaps not this much in southeast, and highs generally 13-15 C.

    TONIGHT ... another mild night with strong westerly winds and drizzle or showery light rain at times, winds WSW 25-45 mph, lows near 8 C north and 10 C south.

    WEDNESDAY ... continued breezy or windy, and very mild, with further light showery rain but possibly some brighter intervals developing, winds more WSW at 20-40 mph, highs 13-15 C. Staying mild overnight to Thursday morning near 7-9 C.

    THURSDAY ... variable cloud, another interval of heavier rain developing late in the day, steady SW winds at about 20-35 mph, highs near 14 C. Some places may get 20-30 mms of rain late Thursday overnight into Friday as it stays very mild near 11 C.

    FRIDAY ... windy and mild with early morning heavy rain, followed by showers but possibly some partial clearing, highs near 14 C. (winds SW to W at about 30-50 mph)

    SATURDAY ... breezy and turning cooler, with showers ... highs near 12 C ... winds becoming WNW 25-45 mph.

    SUNDAY ... variable cloud, a few showers mainly near west coast, winds becoming more NW to N at 20-40 mph, highs near 9 C.

    Models are starting to converge on a more vigorous northwesterly flow next week as a cold vortex develops near Iceland and drops southeast across the U.K., bringing a strong northwest flow of "polar maritime" air to Ireland. This would likely produce some hill snow or sleet and chilly temperatures of only 5-8 C near sea level, favouring hail showers at times. This colder spell might last a few days before moderating back to a milder Atlantic westerly flow.

    Meanwhile, today here was a cloudy day with occasional light rain, and highs of about 11 C. Tomas continues to move steadily west in the Caribbean and is well south of Puerto Rico but models continue to show potential for a northward turn towards eastern Jamaica or Haiti and Dominincan Republic around Thursday. Fears of a major hurricane strike have abated but the current weak tropical storm could return to cat-1 hurricane intensity by then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 3 November, 2010
    _____________________________

    TODAY ... continuing rather mild and breezy, with periods of rain spreading in from the west, but some improvements mid-day and afternoon especially in the south, with brighter skies and less windy at times for a while; however, the northern counties will get a renewed blast of wind and squally showers by afternoon or evening, lasting through the night, and eventually this will spread further south. Winds for the morning hours SW 15-25 mph increasing to 20-35 mph south, but to 35-55 mph north. Rainfalls may be slight in the south today but could amount to 10-15 mms north by evening. Highs will be in the range of 12 C north to 15 C south.

    TONIGHT ... cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 15-30 mms possible, windy at times, very mild, lows only 10-11 C. Northern counties will see westerly winds at 30-50 mph while further south, a more moderate WSW 20-35 mph.

    THURSDAY ... variable skies, squally showers clearing for a while then redeveloping, and gusty winds returning, highs near 13 or 14 C, winds WSW 20-40 mph.

    FRIDAY ... periods of rain, becoming very windy late in the day, possible thunderstorms. Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C. Winds increasing from SSW 15-25 mph to WSW 30-50 mph. Friday night and Saturday morning will be quite stormy with gusty winds (W 40-60 mph in northern counties).

    SATURDAY ... windy and turning colder with squally showers at times, winds veering to WNW 25-45 mph, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY ... variable cloud, risk of showers, colder with highs near 8 C.

    Models are now showing a variety of solutions for the period Sunday to Tuesday with suggestions of a stormy period that comes as early as Sunday on some models and as late as Tuesday on others, so for the time being, taking the consensus to say that Monday and Tuesday may be quite chilly, with mixed wintry precipitation over some inland counties, chilly rain near the coasts, and winds veering around further to northerly or perhaps north-easterly for a while as the low passes through the Irish Sea, then southern U.K. towards France. All of this is somewhat uncertain given the rapid changes in model evolution so stay tuned as the solutions become clearer late in the week.

    Tuesday (2nd) here was a pleasant sunny day and quite mild with a high near 14 C. Nothing too active across North America except for some rain near New Orleans that represents the first stages of a developing east coast storm for later this week. Tomas is moving too slowly to get mixed up in that, and will be just approaching Haiti by Friday, hopefully not too strong but that possibility is being closely watched as the current 40-mph tropical storm may revert back to hurricane status by Thursday afternoon.

    Watch for updates here and on other threads, especially for the period Sunday to Tuesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Hi MT the Met Office said on radio this morning that is was going to become extremely windy on Sunday evening and through Sunday night into Monday this the Storm you are on about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday, 5:45 p.m.
    ___________________________

    ALERT issued for heavy rainfalls across the northern and central counties overnight to mid-day Thursday, eventually affecting the southern counties by morning. Rainfalls of 20-40 mms likely and some thundery downpours possible especially in Galway, north Clare, Mayo, Sligo, Roscommon, Leitrim, Donegal and other parts of west Ulster. Winds will gradually pick up to about 20-40 mph from the southwest as this rain moves in, and will remain gusty through tomorrow.

    The longer-range models continue to show a variety of scenarios for Sunday to Tuesday but the general theme so far (still waiting to see the European model update) is for colder, unsettled conditions to move in during Sunday, winds picking up gradually from a generally west to northwest direction, then veering around to the northeast as the developing low drops southeast into France. One model (GEM) shows a quite intense storm developing that could bring strong winds and the risk of snow for higher ground in both Ireland and Wales. The GFS model solution is less aggressive but similar in timing. Now there would be little chance of seeing snow below 1,500 ft (or say 450m) in this scenario but a good chance that mountains will get their first widespread covering around Sunday night or Monday, and of course the current mild temperatures will be cut back by at least five or six degrees near sea level.

    The GEM model has improved its relative performance in 2010 with some upgrades and could be on to something here (it is showing the low dropping to 960 mbs after moving through Ireland) so stay tuned for further updates. If I don't return to update this today, it probably means that the European model has come in somewhere between the GFS and GEM which won't add much clarity to the picture. At the earlier model run, the European was also showing a fairly vigorous storm over northern France.

    The general trend beyond Monday is for this first storm to fade out and be replaced by a second, slower-moving disturbance to the north of Ireland, but this one would not sink south, it would remain close to Scotland or central parts of the U.K. and bring on another period of chilly, unsettled weather from a west to northwest direction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 4 November, 2010
    ______________________________

    TODAY ... gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies in the west, while the rain should ease off by mid-morning (about 1030h) in eastern Ireland, except in the southeast where it will continue to about mid-day. Brighter intervals will follow from the west but there could still be one or two brief showers, and the SW winds will veer more westerly at 20-30 mph. It will stay very mild with highs of 15-16 C.

    TONIGHT ... periods of rain redeveloping, winds SSW 15-30 mph, very mild with fog developing, lows 10-12 C. This rainfall will average 15-20 mms.

    FRIDAY ... rain becoming squally at times with winds picking up from SW veering to W at 20-40 mph, some higher gusts in Donegal and Mayo, still very mild but temperatures dropping slightly in the north by late afternoon. Highs of about 14-15 C. A further 10-15 mms of rain.

    SATURDAY ... breezy or locally windy and cooler with showers merging to periods of light rain, 5-8 mms on average, winds WNW 20-35 mph, lows near
    5 C and highs near 9-10 C. Just a few brief sunny breaks more likely near south and east coasts.

    SUNDAY ... becoming windy with rain developing and becoming heavy at times late in the day, winds backing from strong SW to SE then ENE as the storm drops south across or just west of Ireland. There are indications this could produce winds of 30-50 mph by Sunday night, with a driving rain that could become sleety or snowy on high ground, as temperatures fall to about 5-6 C near sea level and 0-3 C higher up. This storm will persist into Monday especially in the south and east, with 20-40 mms of rain possible.

    Models are still having some trouble giving us a definite track and evolution for this storm, and it could move by fairly quickly leading to some clearing by early Tuesday (in which case it would become frosty), or it may stall closer to Ireland in northwest France, and allow the rain and strong E-NE winds to continue for another day. In any case, improvements should follow by mid-week and there could be a return to milder weather but with another episode of strong winds and showers. The situation looks a bit suspect and I feel that the models may continue to have trouble with this system until almost the day before it arrives.

    Meanwhile, we've enjoyed a very pleasant sunny day here on Wed 3rd, with a high near 15 C. The southeast U.S. is seeing rain from a developing east coast low, and Tomas is slowly recovering its strength and looking like a Friday morning strike on Haiti, hopefully not overly severe but as flooding and mudslides are the big risk, this would not need to be that intense a storm for problems to develop. Jamaica will get more of a glancing blow later today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 1100h
    ________________________

    Amending the forecast as some of the rainfall mentioned for tonight has already moved into Connacht, so now expecting periods of rain to move across northern counties this afternoon while the south stays largely dry except for some local drizzle. This rain will continue intermittently and spread further south by evening and through the overnight period. By tonight a total of 15-25 mms of rain can be expected in most areas, although 5-10 mms in the southeast.

    The model consensus is now growing for a significant rain and wind event on Sunday night and Monday, with the track of low pressure appearing more in agreement now, from a northwesterly direction and across the western parts of Ireland or just offshore, towards the Bay of Biscay by Monday night. Most of the guidance now shows winds backing around during Sunday from an initial SSW direction towards the ESE, rising to near gale force in gusts, then to the NE by Monday morning at about 30-50 mph, with intervals of heavy rain likely throughout.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 1100h
    ________________________

    Amending the forecast as some of the rainfall mentioned for tonight has already moved into Connacht, so now expecting periods of rain to move across northern counties this afternoon while the south stays largely dry except for some local drizzle. This rain will continue intermittently and spread further south by evening and through the overnight period. By tonight a total of 15-25 mms of rain can be expected in most areas, although 5-10 mms in the southeast.

    The model consensus is now growing for a significant rain and wind event on Sunday night and Monday, with the track of low pressure appearing more in agreement now, from a northwesterly direction and across the western parts of Ireland or just offshore, towards the Bay of Biscay by Monday night. Most of the guidance now shows winds backing around during Sunday from an initial SSW direction towards the ESE, rising to near gale force in gusts, then to the NE by Monday morning at about 30-50 mph, with intervals of heavy rain likely throughout.

    NB it has been raining solidly and heavily here all day so far; West Cork. Never a let up and sweeping in still across the fields. Does not seem to match the forecast and that is unusual?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12 DavMar


    M.T, just wondering if the skies will be clear tomorrow evening at around 7.30pm to see the space shuttle passing over after launching from Cape Canaveral? I'm in Waterford by the way! Thanks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Graces7, that must be a low-level drizzle sweeping in across Kerry and west Cork because the radar isn't catching much of it, and I notice the reports at weather stations are showing mist and fog with 100% humidity in the southwest. I guess being a golfer I tend to count it as rain if I need an umbrella, and just the angels sweating otherwise (as you may guess from that, we get this sea mist too). Gurteen was reporting heavy drizzle which is a soaking condition for sure, we might see that once or twice a year here.

    DavMar, I am not terribly optimistic about clear patches for Friday evening but you could get lucky because one front is shown moving past Wexford about 5 p.m. and the next batch of organized showers would be around midnight so if there is any chance that time around 7:30 p.m. might be it. Would expect 80% cloud cover though, so you'll need some luck.


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